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India’s first use Nuclear Policy: Should Pakistan be worried?
Global Village Space |
Maimuna Ashraf |
“In making tactical dispositions, the highest pitch you can attain is to conceal them.”
– Sun Tzu
‘Splendid first-strike’ and ‘strategic ambiguity’ are lately being discussed as the twin strong emerging components of Indian nuclear policy. In the last few years, BJP’s manifesto and views expressed by former Indian officials hinted towards the inside deliberations regarding India’s use of nuclear weapons.
India will not allow Pakistan to go first. And that India’s opening salvo may not be conventional strikes trying to pick off just Nasr batteries in the theater, but a full ‘comprehensive counterforce strike’.
The debate rekindled when the renowned strategist Vipin Narang, at a recently held Carnegie International Nuclear Policy Conference, cited excerpts from the book of India’s Former National Security Adviser Shivshankar Menon and claimed the “increasing evidence that India will not allow Pakistan to go first. And that India’s opening salvo may not be conventional strikes trying to pick off just Nasr batteries in the theater, but a full ‘comprehensive counterforce strike’ that attempts to completely disarm Pakistan of its nuclear weapons so that India does not have to engage in iterative tit-for-tat exchanges and expose its own cities to nuclear destruction.”
Read more: Pakistan must give one message on India’s self-confessed “state actor”
This stirred up a number of suspicions. India is moving from its No-First-Use (NFU) policy which states that a state possessing nuclear weapon will not use them unless first attacked by an opponent’s nuclear strike. The precept also specifies that this strike by India would be ‘counterforce’ that refers to target enemy’s nuclear weapons and military infrastructure rather than existing counter-value strategy, which aims at targeting adversary’s civilians and cities.
Pakistani strategists believe that evidence speaks volume about India reassessing its official doctrine.
Recent assessment implies that India would inflict a comprehensive first strike in response to Pakistan’s use of tactical nuclear weapons with an ambition to fully destroy Pakistani nuclear forces and retaliation capability to launch interactive exchanges. Pragmatically, the adversary can wreak havoc with remaining intact nuclear weapons, thus presumably counterforce strike would fill this gap by leaving the opponent with no or little ‘third strike’ after India’s second-strike in response to Pakistan’s first. By every mean, the first use would end India’s NFU, but can India fully disarm Pakistani nuclear forces by taking out all of its nukes? Too ideal to analyze, both theoretically and practically. Critics argue that India cannot hit all the potential targets simultaneously.
Impacts on ‘first-use’ on the region
Here arise questions, what do the trends and technological advances say about India rethinking its strategy? How does Pakistan view this swirl of debate?
Read full article:
India’s first use Nuclear Policy: Should Pakistan be worried?
Global Village Space |
Maimuna Ashraf |
“In making tactical dispositions, the highest pitch you can attain is to conceal them.”
– Sun Tzu
‘Splendid first-strike’ and ‘strategic ambiguity’ are lately being discussed as the twin strong emerging components of Indian nuclear policy. In the last few years, BJP’s manifesto and views expressed by former Indian officials hinted towards the inside deliberations regarding India’s use of nuclear weapons.
India will not allow Pakistan to go first. And that India’s opening salvo may not be conventional strikes trying to pick off just Nasr batteries in the theater, but a full ‘comprehensive counterforce strike’.
The debate rekindled when the renowned strategist Vipin Narang, at a recently held Carnegie International Nuclear Policy Conference, cited excerpts from the book of India’s Former National Security Adviser Shivshankar Menon and claimed the “increasing evidence that India will not allow Pakistan to go first. And that India’s opening salvo may not be conventional strikes trying to pick off just Nasr batteries in the theater, but a full ‘comprehensive counterforce strike’ that attempts to completely disarm Pakistan of its nuclear weapons so that India does not have to engage in iterative tit-for-tat exchanges and expose its own cities to nuclear destruction.”
Read more: Pakistan must give one message on India’s self-confessed “state actor”
This stirred up a number of suspicions. India is moving from its No-First-Use (NFU) policy which states that a state possessing nuclear weapon will not use them unless first attacked by an opponent’s nuclear strike. The precept also specifies that this strike by India would be ‘counterforce’ that refers to target enemy’s nuclear weapons and military infrastructure rather than existing counter-value strategy, which aims at targeting adversary’s civilians and cities.
Pakistani strategists believe that evidence speaks volume about India reassessing its official doctrine.
Recent assessment implies that India would inflict a comprehensive first strike in response to Pakistan’s use of tactical nuclear weapons with an ambition to fully destroy Pakistani nuclear forces and retaliation capability to launch interactive exchanges. Pragmatically, the adversary can wreak havoc with remaining intact nuclear weapons, thus presumably counterforce strike would fill this gap by leaving the opponent with no or little ‘third strike’ after India’s second-strike in response to Pakistan’s first. By every mean, the first use would end India’s NFU, but can India fully disarm Pakistani nuclear forces by taking out all of its nukes? Too ideal to analyze, both theoretically and practically. Critics argue that India cannot hit all the potential targets simultaneously.
Impacts on ‘first-use’ on the region
Here arise questions, what do the trends and technological advances say about India rethinking its strategy? How does Pakistan view this swirl of debate?
Read full article:
India’s first use Nuclear Policy: Should Pakistan be worried?
Do you know how we tested our first nukes in 1974
