India's external debt baloons to $513 billion

[Nalini]

Funny The Way You Talk

These riots are sponsored by Congress & other regional parties to stop BJP's total take over & dominance of the country. The riots are not because of economic crisis. Yes it's a worry-some & negative, if it gets long & continuous. As of now, it's just small skirmishes. It will possibly increase next year near 2019 elections according to me. If BJP wins again in 2019, these opposition parties will be further weakened & will surrender to Modi. Lot of parties are set to lose their political status in coming years due to BJP. So they are trying everything to divide. SP, BSP, AAP, CPI, AIADMK, AITC, etc all are at risk of going extinct including the great Congress.

The Karnataka elections next month is a cause of major concern for Congress. I feel, it wont be a easy run for BJP, though they will add more seats than previous, I personally doubt it will get a landslide victory. Local Janata Dal party will get a portion of the seats, who will become the kingpin between Congress & BJP to form a coilation Gov.t.

Let's wait & watch. Our GDP growth is still intact, Forex reserves are rising. FDI still coming, credit ratings getting better. So nothing to worry.

Regarding the ATM queues & Petrol pump queues, it was not because the Gov.t was bankrupt & ran out of money. Everybody knows why the queues where at ATM. It was only because the new notes were not printed to replace the old ones & there was a withdrawal limit of 4000 Rs per day. Petrol pumps were running on debit & credit cards, so there was chaos for approval due to delay in swiping machine approvals. The servers were slow due to overload of digital payments & Bankers busy with exchange of old notes.

This was absolutely not because the Gov.t became bankrupt & definitely not because Gov.t didn't have money to import oil, so no petrol at pumps. This has nothing to do with what I really meant.

As For Our Resources Don't You Worry Your Puny Little Retarded Head We Will Extract When We Need To It's Our Wealth So Our Headache Not Yours

Do you think Indians will be worried if your country goes bankrupt. We are concerned of Chinese sitting there & our P.O.K & GB being compromised. What you do with your resources is absolutely your headache. We may try to do our part, so it is enjoyed by the local people, not the politicians, Military & Punjabis.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-...e-deals-to-men-from-gulf-states-idUSKBN1CF1F7

https://www.indiatimes.com/news/ind...n-to-gulf-countries-via-sri-lanka-261330.html

Now I Know Where You Got Your Forex Reserves From

Muslims want to believe they are descendant of Arabs or want to get fuked to get Arab ancestry. These people breed 4-8 children & can't meet ends, nor give education for the girls. Then they end up not having dowry for the marriages. So such cheepos sell their daughters to other cheepos. They daydream these girls becoming Arab national or queens & they will soon build palaces, owning several cars & having a royal life. They don't realize they are promoting pr0stitution. They deserve to suffer for their acts. It's same with every Muslim, how much ever horribly they get fuked & treated, they will again & again go lick the d!ck of Arabs like slaves. They think Arabs are holy people with the blood line of Prophet Mohammad without looking at their past experiences, behavior & attitude from the medieval times of his existence.

These people don't even pay taxes what they will contribute to the country forex reserves. The peanuts they get won't even last months. It's only the brokers who make money.

Most people here don't want to see reality or have any clue of geo-politics & economics. Atleast I am giving you some insight into the ground reality. If you can't see your public assets are mortgaged & pledged one by one, be happy with your fake justifications. Definitely China will change Pakistan in to a Economic superpower. Wait till 2020/21 & see how your condition will be - you will be like a fish out of water. I will be around to pull out this post & show it in your face. All the best

 

[ADITYA MAYUKH]

Most of the loans stated above are long term loans that means we have to pay the loans over a long period of time and that is where the math comes in play because most of these loans are for productive infrastructure which means the money spent is going to give more returns in long run . In case of Pakistan the loans were taken on short term basis on high rates which mostly were for the repayments of older loans in place of productive investment which was mostly due to misplaced policies of the government whereas in India's case our well decorated bureaucratic tape was there to rectify the wrong in any misplaced policies of Indian Government.

 

[Pakistani Aircraft]

Well people here are the economic experts who are acclaimed internationally... Most of them take Chinese loans for CPEC as investments... it shows their calibre...

Although I'm not a person who has good command on economic... but I can see the long term benefits of GST and current bank reforms...
Things are simple you have debts and earnings... the day you can't pay your debts from your own earnings... it is a problem...

Novice Indian, this is what I asked:

"But India's all time reserves now cover 11 months of imports compared to when in 2008, it was more than 14 months of imports. So, why the regression, novice Indian?"

Let's wait & watch. Our GDP growth is still intact, Forex reserves are rising. FDI still coming, credit ratings getting better. So nothing to worry.

India's all time reserves now cover 11 months of imports compared to when in 2008, it was more than 14 months of imports. So, what does this mean Nalini?

 

[Nilgiri]

Novice Indian, this is what I asked:

"But India's all time reserves now cover 11 months of imports compared to when in 2008, it was more than 14 months of imports. So, why the regression, novice Indian?"



India's all time reserves now cover 11 months of imports compared to when in 2008, it was more than 14 months of imports. So, what does this mean Nalini?

There is some gold standard on number of months to import a forex amount will cover?

You understand what the underlying differing liquidity rates are regarding debt, forex and the Current and Capital account?

Oh wait you still havent responded to my earlier fact check, whoops:

https://defence.pk/pdf/threads/indi...ns-to-513-billion.552346/page-3#post-10392484

 

[Śakra]

You understand what the underlying differing liquidity rates are regarding debt, forex and the Current and Capital account?

Of course they don't. If they did they would have a net negative forex reserve

 

[bête noire]

Indeed why is it not happening?
Oh whoops it is happening:
https://blogs.worldbank.org/opendata/are-south-asian-countries-sinking-debt-trap

The question should be why its not happening in rest of South Asia (neg debt flow i.e overall debt repayment) which seem to be ramping up their debt flows instead with little to show for it on the ground tbh.

Bangladesh has much less external debt than any of you lot and we have way more forex reserve than external debt amount. You want to compare with Pakistan, compare with Pakistan. Don't drag whole South Asia where Bangladesh has one of lowest debt of any country let alone debt ridden countries like our neighbours in South Asia. Nepal (your neighbouring South Asian country) also has one of the lowest debt even much lower than BD.

 

[Pakistani Aircraft]

Bangladesh has much less external debt than any of you lot and we have way more forex reserve than external debt amount. You want to compare with Pakistan, compare with Pakistan. Don't drag whole South Asia where Bangladesh has one of lowest debt of any country let alone debt ridden countries like our neighbours in South Asia. Nepal (your neighbouring South Asian country) also has one of the lowest debt even much lower than BD.

What is your total external debt Bangali Man?

 

[bête noire]

What is your total external debt Bangali Man?

External Debt $26 billion.
Forex reserve $33 billion.

And I am Bangladeshi, not Bengali. Bengali could mean either Indian or Bangladeshi Bengali.

 

[gslv mk3]

Don't drag whole South Asia where Bangladesh has one of lowest debt of any country let alone debt ridden countries like our neighbours in South Asia.

And you ignored your near junk credit rating. But what can we expect from the LDC types.

 

[Nalini]

Novice Indian, this is what I asked:

"But India's all time reserves now cover 11 months of imports compared to when in 2008, it was more than 14 months of imports. So, why the regression, novice Indian?"

India's all time reserves now cover 11 months of imports compared to when in 2008, it was more than 14 months of imports. So, what does this mean Nalini?

India is spending heavily on lot of things unlike the previous Gov.t. I can't put the entire budget here. Just mentioning a few below

Rural Employment Scheme - 48,000 Crore
Billions of dollars are spent on Defence modernisation (No time to search & give exact figure)
Pradan Mantri Awaz yojna - 29043 Crore (Housing for all)
PM Sadak yojna - 19000 Crores
Swacch Bharat & Toilet facility - Rs 16,248 crore

Aircraft carriers, other ships (War games), Huge container ships all have grown multi fold - drinks lot of fuel & Billions of $ in operating cost.
Consumption has quadrupled since 2008
Vehicle users have increased 10 times since 2008
Railways, Metros, Civil Aviation has tripled since 2008
Food subsidy increased from 35 % share to 55%

Many Many more. Let me come to your post

India’s economy was in a honeymoon run between 2003-2009. Infact the answer to your question is - India’s forex reserves grew dramatically between April 2007 and February 2008 from $200 billion to $300 billion in just 9 months, if you didn’t know. So having a 14 month excessive cover is self explanatory because we had surplus cash at that time. After that the reserves stayed between $300 billion and $400 billion for more than 9 years. And the economy faced a major slow down between 2010-14.

And there was only around 7 months worth of import cover near March-end 2012. So if it's holding around 10-11 in the past several months, what does it indicate - the economy has got stronger, right.

Economic Survey points out that India can be rated among the best performing economies in the world as the average growth during last three years is around 4% points higher than global growth and nearly 3% points higher than that of emerging market & developing economies.

An economy is doing ok if they have at-least a 3 month import cover. Anything above 6 months is healthy. If a country has 11 months cover, what does it say. Doesn’t mean if we had 14 months cover in 2008 & 11 months cover now, our economy is in crisis. We still have more than 3 quarter cover, almost a year.

I may not be a great pundit in economics, but I do have reasonable knowledge of what's what. I am putting it in simple words below. If it can sink it in to your intellect, good, If not, let you Allah save you.

Pakistan has a doctored figure of its reserves. You are taking loans to boost up your reserves. So you will be in for a tragedy soon, especially when you don't get next loan around the due date, to clear the previous loans or interest, so as to keep this show intact.

India has debts, but we are not borrowing to pay our previous loans or interests. We have an economy to service our loans, so our external debt are fine. This is where the big difference is.

Your present import cover of 3 months will take a drastic hit once you don't get loan. I think the due dates is around June July. Any lending body, will look at your ability to repay before giving loan.

Now what will you do in such a situation. You need to have money to run your day to day expenses, if not the imports will stop & the public will go crazy & will be out on streets. The prices will suddenly shoot up due to lack of supply, for essentials. The leader who wants to save his skin & his political seat will again do the same jadoo “Mera baap ka kya jaata hai” solution – pledge or mortgage more Public Assets as security & collateral to get further loans.

Most people in Pakistan are ignorant. Even the many educated don't understand economics or don't have time to break their head on it, because they may be in different profession. Eg: Why would a busy doctor want to sit & understand economics, when it's not his field or area of interest? But somebody has to wake up & stop this tyranny. If not your leaders will sink your country by putting your country’s property & Gov.t assets at stake. It’s not their Baap ka maal, it’s country’s property. No individual has right to pledge it without the permission of the public. This is a dangerous gamble.

India's debt is also quite high to worry about, for sure. We are fighting to bring it down & we are also facing challenges. Something comes in the way or some unexpected crisis happen. But luckily we are not at other country’s mercy. Pakistan has always depended on US, Middle East & now Chinese money. All you hear is CPEC, CPEC, CPEC. You never had or have a game changer of your own, which can save your country. How many billion $ companies does Pakistan have. We have hundreds of billion $ companies which we have built on our own. Check PDF attachment

People are happy here posting on Kashmir, India’s Rapes, RAW, Modi, Pakistan’s great Military, JF 17 & the joy is boundless if you are talking about China’s great achievements over India.

Drop your Hindu hatred, Make friendship with India at whatever cost. Jump over from the boat of China to the other side – because the other side is the whole world. All the problems with solve automatically. It's India who doesn’t want to make friendship is going to be your answer. Good Luck. Check Attachment

 

[Nilgiri]

Bangladesh has much less external debt than any of you lot

So? Your credit rating is junk grade + you are GDDS standard (sort of tied to each other actually).

Its an issue of no one wanting to give you debt (esp on the free market) rather than how much you want to take on. You would be ballooned waaaaay past 100% of GDP the way your corrupt politicians and bureaucrazy works if it was just organic "demand" in play. Just be thankful rest of the world understands that better than you lot seem to do....and there are basic market forces and inherent liquidity equilibrium (bond market pressure cut off valves and such essentially) at work.

we have way more forex reserve than external debt amount.

Like I have already said, totally different monetary bases and velocities at work. Seriously go pick up a basic book on economics (anything broad by or covering Milton Friedman is a great place to start)....read about Mx and how they operate in an economy before you spout your mouth here like a nincompoop.

Forex reserves are a completely different purpose altogether compared to debt in the first place. I schooled one of your compatriots earlier on it:

https://defence.pk/pdf/threads/baf-ordered-8-su-30me-variant.545869/page-5#post-10286625

Anyone even outside Economics field can logically think, why does China take on more foreign debt each year even though it sits on a vast forex stockpile. The answer lies in what forex reserves actually are for, how they accumulate and what their overall liquidity velocity is compared to debt instruments especially for M1 + M2 purposes . @Dungeness @GS Zhou

A way more appropriate ratio (given more equivalent M velocities at the current level of financial market development found in BD) would be external debt/ total stock market cap for example. Want to tell me what it is for BD compared to India? I'll give you a hint: you wont like it one bit....by literally several magnitudes.

Don't drag whole South Asia where Bangladesh has one of lowest debt of any country let alone debt ridden countries like our neighbours in South Asia. Nepal (your neighbouring South Asian country) also has one of the lowest debt even much lower than BD.

Again totally nincompoop analysis for the reasons I have specified. Also add to that the particular ramp in play right now in BD (its nowhere near as bad as what Pakistan is doing esp given their pre-existing level I'll give you that)....but you are adding more debt overall right now (with no commensurate structural improvement of credit rating, no relevant expansion of market cap in DSE, esp bond market) ...but about 50% increase in total level from 28 to 41 bln USD in 4 years time compared to India's increase in same time period of about 16% .... the reverse of what India is doing more recently too (repayed 65 billion USD, added 42 billion new debt, i.e a net debt outflow or nearly 25 billion USD in 2016....nearly equivalent to the total BD govt bond market size to give you an idea of the scale in operation here).

So really, don't enter a conversation you know zero about. You will only embarrass yourself....there is no BBS to hide behind when it comes to debt market after all. Just like these loud claims you lot bray about all the time come crashing down when the 3rd party standards remove the feelz veil:

https://defence.pk/pdf/threads/bbs-...rce-growth-dwarfs-males.552761/#post-10398165

@Joe Shearer @Gibbs @Ashes @Mage @Xlvee01

 

[Pakistani Aircraft]

External Debt $26 billion.
Forex reserve $33 billion.

And I am Bangladeshi, not Bengali. Bengali could mean either Indian or Bangladeshi Bengali.

Thanks my Bangladeshi brother.

 

[bête noire]

So? Your credit rating is junk grade + you are GDDS standard (sort of tied to each other actually).

Its an issue of no one wanting to give you debt (esp on the free market) rather than how much you want to take on. You would be ballooned waaaaay past 100% of GDP the way your corrupt politicians and bureaucrazy works if it was just organic "demand" in play. Just be thankful rest of the world understands that better than you lot seem to do....and there are basic market forces and inherent liquidity equilibrium (bond market pressure cut off valves and such essentially) at work.



Like I have already said, totally different monetary bases and velocities at work. Seriously go pick up a basic book on economics (anything broad by or covering Milton Friedman is a great place to start)....read about Mx and how they operate in an economy before you spout your mouth here like a nincompoop.

Forex reserves are a completely different purpose altogether compared to debt in the first place. I schooled one of your compatriots earlier on it:

https://defence.pk/pdf/threads/baf-ordered-8-su-30me-variant.545869/page-5#post-10286625

Anyone even outside Economics field can logically think, why does China take on more foreign debt each year even though it sits on a vast forex stockpile. The answer lies in what forex reserves actually are for, how they accumulate and what their overall liquidity velocity is compared to debt instruments especially for M1 + M2 purposes . @Dungeness @GS Zhou

A way more appropriate ratio (given more equivalent M velocities at the current level of financial market development found in BD) would be external debt/ total stock market cap for example. Want to tell me what it is for BD compared to India? I'll give you a hint: you wont like it one bit....by literally several magnitudes.



Again totally nincompoop analysis for the reasons I have specified. Also add to that the particular ramp in play right now in BD (its nowhere near as bad as what Pakistan is doing esp given their pre-existing level I'll give you that)....but you are adding more debt overall right now (with no commensurate structural improvement of credit rating, no relevant expansion of market cap in DSE, esp bond market) ...but about 50% increase in total level from 28 to 41 bln USD in 4 years time compared to India's increase in same time period of about 16% .... the reverse of what India is doing more recently too (repayed 65 billion USD, added 42 billion new debt, i.e a net debt outflow or nearly 25 billion USD in 2016....nearly equivalent to the total BD govt bond market size to give you an idea of the scale in operation here).

So really, don't enter a conversation you know zero about. You will only embarrass yourself....there is no BBS to hide behind when it comes to debt market after all. Just like these loud claims you lot bray about all the time come crashing down when the 3rd party standards remove the feelz veil:

https://defence.pk/pdf/threads/bbs-...rce-growth-dwarfs-males.552761/#post-10398165

@Joe Shearer @Gibbs @Ashes @Mage @Xlvee01

Credit rating not improving? We only started getting credit rating in 2016, what are you talking about? And what does credit rating have to do with the fact that India has way more external debt to forex ratio than BD? It's not even comparable. We only spend 15% of our budget on debt servicing even though our government spending to GDP is only 13% while India spends over 20% on debt servicing.

And of course you are lowering debt, but why would that matter in the case of BD? BD doesn't have debt problem to begin with that it would need to reduce the debt. You are the one with the need of debt reduction not BD. We have more things to worry about than non existent debt crisis.

 

[Pakistani Aircraft]

India is spending heavily on lot of things unlike the previous Gov.t. I can't put the entire budget here. Just mentioning a few below

Rural Employment Scheme - 48,000 Crore
Billions of dollars are spent on Defence modernisation (No time to search & give exact figure)
Pradan Mantri Awaz yojna - 29043 Crore (Housing for all)
PM Sadak yojna - 19000 Crores
Swacch Bharat & Toilet facility - Rs 16,248 crore

Aircraft carriers, other ships (War games), Huge container ships all have grown multi fold - drinks lot of fuel & Billions of $ in operating cost.
Consumption has quadrupled since 2008
Vehicle users have increased 10 times since 2008
Railways, Metros, Civil Aviation has tripled since 2008
Food subsidy increased from 35 % share to 55%

Many Many more. Let me come to your post

India’s economy was in a honeymoon run between 2003-2009. Infact the answer to your question is - India’s forex reserves grew dramatically between April 2007 and February 2008 from $200 billion to $300 billion in just 9 months, if you didn’t know. So having a 14 month excessive cover is self explanatory because we had surplus cash at that time. After that the reserves stayed between $300 billion and $400 billion for more than 9 years. And the economy faced a major slow down between 2010-14.

And there was only around 7 months worth of import cover near March-end 2012. So if it's holding around 10-11 in the past several months, what does it indicate - the economy has got stronger, right.

Economic Survey points out that India can be rated among the best performing economies in the world as the average growth during last three years is around 4% points higher than global growth and nearly 3% points higher than that of emerging market & developing economies.

An economy is doing ok if they have at-least a 3 month import cover. Anything above 6 months is healthy. If a country has 11 months cover, what does it say. Doesn’t mean if we had 14 months cover in 2008 & 11 months cover now, our economy is in crisis. We still have more than 3 quarter cover, almost a year.

I may not be a great pundit in economics, but I do have reasonable knowledge of what's what. I am putting it in simple words below. If it can sink it in to your intellect, good, If not, let you Allah save you.

Pakistan has a doctored figure of its reserves. You are taking loans to boost up your reserves. So you will be in for a tragedy soon, especially when you don't get next loan around the due date, to clear the previous loans or interest, so as to keep this show intact.

India has debts, but we are not borrowing to pay our previous loans or interests. We have an economy to service our loans, so our external debt are fine. This is where the big difference is.

Your present import cover of 3 months will take a drastic hit once you don't get loan. I think the due dates is around June July. Any lending body, will look at your ability to repay before giving loan.

Now what will you do in such a situation. You need to have money to run your day to day expenses, if not the imports will stop & the public will go crazy & will be out on streets. The prices will suddenly shoot up due to lack of supply, for essentials. The leader who wants to save his skin & his political seat will again do the same jadoo “Mera baap ka kya jaata hai” solution – pledge or mortgage more Public Assets as security & collateral to get further loans.

Most people in Pakistan are ignorant. Even the many educated don't understand economics or don't have time to break their head on it, because they may be in different profession. Eg: Why would a busy doctor want to sit & understand economics, when it's not his field or area of interest? But somebody has to wake up & stop this tyranny. If not your leaders will sink your country by putting your country’s property & Gov.t assets at stake. It’s not their Baap ka maal, it’s country’s property. No individual has right to pledge it without the permission of the public. This is a dangerous gamble.

India's debt is also quite high to worry about, for sure. We are fighting to bring it down & we are also facing challenges. Something comes in the way or some unexpected crisis happen. But luckily we are not at other country’s mercy. Pakistan has always depended on US, Middle East & now Chinese money. All you hear is CPEC, CPEC, CPEC. You never had or have a game changer of your own, which can save your country. How many billion $ companies does Pakistan have. We have hundreds of billion $ companies which we have built on our own. Check PDF attachment

People are happy here posting on Kashmir, India’s Rapes, RAW, Modi, Pakistan’s great Military, JF 17 & the joy is boundless if you are talking about China’s great achievements over India.

Drop your Hindu hatred, Make friendship with India at whatever cost. Jump over from the boat of China to the other side – because the other side is the whole world. All the problems with solve automatically. It's India who doesn’t want to make friendship is going to be your answer. Good Luck. Check Attachment

You expect me to read you essay of bongian? Got bored after a paragraph or two.

Anyway, since Pakistan is borrowing money from its friends in the Middle East and now China, who has India borrowed it's half-a-trillion dollars from?

 

[AyanRay]

You expect me to read you essay of bongian? Got bored after a paragraph or two.

Anyway, since Pakistan is borrowing money from its friends in the Middle East and now China, who has India borrowed it's half-a-trillion dollars from?

Mostly from World Bank and Asian Development Bank to initiate big developmental projects, not to maintain our fx reserves. Secondly major chunk of our foreign debts represent the bond holdings by FIIs issued by Indian companies.