India's Chabahar vs China's Gwadar: New Delhi plays tic-tac-toe with Beijing

[BABA AGHORI]

Dude whether you get the overland route or not doesnt matter if the Talis are sitting around it.Now suppose you get rid of them how can you stop Pakistan from using it to get even on other areas of its interest or in case of war.And forget about the underwater pipeline which will definitely not pass Pakistans extended EEZ because of the environmental concerns.

Regarding the trade route for each major CA city , since you have put the map here earlier just wanted to say best routes for anyone trading through the Indian ocean are as below

Astana/Kazakhistan - via Kyrgyztan-China-Pakistan
Almaty/Kazakhistan - via Kyrgyztan-China-Pakistan
Bishkek/Kyrgyztan - via China-Pakistan


Samarkand/Uzbekistan - via Afghanistan-Pakistan
Tashkent/Uzbekistan - via Afghanistan-Pakistan
Dushanbe/Tajikistan - via Afghanistan-Pakistan

Ashgabad/Turkmanistan - via Iran

So Pakistan has a huge role in upcoming Central Asian trade happening through Indian ocean as you can see.

Dude whether you get the overland route or not doesnt matter if the Talis are sitting around it.Now suppose you get rid of them how can you stop Pakistan from using it to get even on other areas of its interest or in case of war.And forget about the underwater pipeline which will definitely not pass Pakistans extended EEZ because of the environmental concerns.
I strongly support your environmental concerns on the pipeline., India should support Pakistan in this cause of environment and try to avoid and stop all overland routes that pass through Pakistan. After all, if a neighbor will not think about the wellbeing of a neighbor then who will.
Astana/Kazakhistan - via Kyrgyztan-China-Pakistan - Talk to a guy who works for Logistics why will he pick going through one of the highest passes in the world increasing the cost. More over the Kazakhistan population density is in south not in east of the country.
Almaty/Kazakhistan - via Kyrgyztan-China-Pakistan- Talk to a guy who works for Logistics why will he pick going through one of the highest passes in the world increasing the cost.
More over the Kazakhistan population density is in south not in east of the country.
Bishkek/Kyrgyztan - via China-Pakistan- Possible - Why not to take a safer route rather getting into a geopolitical nightmare


Samarkand/Uzbekistan - via Afghanistan-Pakistan - Taliban infested Afg. as per Pak logic not a good route.
Tashkent/Uzbekistan - via Afghanistan-Pakistan- Taliban infested Afg. as per Pak logic not a good route.
Dushanbe/Tajikistan - via Afghanistan-Pakistan- Taliban infested Afg. as per Pak logic not a good route.

Yes, I agree Pakistan is sitting on gold mine but losing on time. Once alternate routes are developed it will be a tricky situation as other parties will have something to negociate on the table. Iran doesn't need Pakistani trade routes. Afganistan is not looking keen because of Geo-political reasons and India is neither allowed nor willing to give a leverage to Pakistan.
Therefore more than 90% of land bordered with Pakistan doesn't either want to or allowed to Pass through Pakistan.

The Taliban appeared spontaneously in 1994 and it happened because of the oppression of the warlords. All the warlords formed up under the Northern Alliance, which was supported by India. There is a big difference between both strategies.

With regards to Chahbahar, of course India will gain access to Central Asia. But it is also clear that both projects are ultimately aiming for connectivity to the same area. One will succeed and one will fail.

Apparently, You are correct. Now the key node is Afghanistan for CPEC. And for the 1st time in history, because of Chabahar the table has changed. Now CPEC would be needing Afganistan more than Afganistan would be needing CPEC.

 

[DarX]

First of all the militants groups mentioned by you(TTP,Jamat UL Ahraar, Jamait I Islami and many others) were created by ISI during the Afghan war. Many of the militant groups were pushed in Kashmir after the Afghan war. Yr own Punjabi PM appeals to the Taliban to spare Punjab, Here Punjab means the Pakistani ones. About MQM,it was created by Zia ul haq to counter Sindhi Nationalism. Lastly MQM is a political party which contests elections in Pakistan,if MQM is involved in Anti National activities why don't u ban MQM. What are you waiting for. The ethnic violence in KARACHI, Pakistan( MQM VS OTHERS) goes back to to 1960's. In your earlier reply you have blamed India for the violence in Balochistan but show me one place where the militants have not left their foot prints. U have attacks on polio workers, census team

Please check your information. The TTP only formed in December 2007, and the Jamaat ul Ahraar formed in 2014. The Jamaat i Islami has been around since the time of partition of India. None of them were created by the ISI. Neither did the Pakistani PM appeal to them to spare the Punjab. If anything, the PMLN (which you are referring to) has owned the operations against these militants and all of these groups now operate from Afghanistan under the patronage of the NIA and the NDS.

With regards to the MQM, it is common knowledge that India was the force behind it. Do you really think that new alliances of opportunity can never be formed? Altaf Hussain's contacts with India, and the training of MQM target killers is open knowledge. Search for the interview of Saulat Mirza, which will clear up a lot for you.

The Indian involvement in these attacks is obviously not limited to Balochistan. A recent attack by the TTP which attacked Police was solved and the handler confessed how he got his support from India. Nobody is clean in this game.

 

[-blitzkrieg-]

Astana/Kazakhistan - via Kyrgyztan-China-Pakistan - Talk to a guy who works for Logistics why will he pic going through one of the highest passes in the world increasing the cost.
Almaty/Kazakhistan - via Kyrgyztan-China-Pakistan- Talk to a guy who works for Logistics why will he pic going through one of the highest passes in the world increasing the cost.
Bishkek/Kyrgyztan - via China-Pakistan- Possible - Why not to take a safer route rather getting into a geopolitical nightmare

Thats because the route through Pakistan lands them directly into the Arabian sea, anything else is a way around . And petty things like high passes dont matter if they are in way of grand markets like Pakistan and China. so is negligible not to forget the other routes also have mountains in the way ..Pakistan has already an arrangement with the four central asian countries called QTTA.

Yes, I agree Pakistan is sitting on gold mine but losing on time. Once alternate routes are developed it will be a tricky situation as other parties will have something to negociate on the table. Iran doesn't need Pakistani trade routes. Afganistan is not looking keen because of Geo-political reasons and India is neither allowed nor willing to give a leverage to Pakistan.
Therefore more than 90% of land bordered with Pakistan doesn't either want to or allowed to Pass through Pakistan.

The land route is already developed.Anything related to India is not allowed,every other nation is more than welcome to pass by. You probably need to learn more about people of Afghanistan an d their values.

 

[BABA AGHORI]

Thats because the route through Pakistan lands them directly into the Arabian sea, anything else is a way around . And petty things like high passes dont matter if they are in way of grand markets like Pakistan and China. so is negligible not to forget the other routes also have mountains in the way ..Pakistan has already an arrangement with the four central asian countries called QTTA.


The land route is already developed.Anything related to India is not allowed,every other nation is more than welcome to pass by. You probably need to learn more about people of Afghanistan an d their values.

Cool, I'm impressed, So for central Asian countries to access Chinese market they have to go through CPEC. And from where Pakistani market became grand over the Indian one when what CAR countries mostly export energy and ore.
Now am also amazed that still CAR countries don't have any alternate routes to Arabian seas other than Pakistan. Chabahar will be functional before CPEC gets functional. Most of the market for CAR is either East towards Europe or West towards China, And for India they won't be needing CPEC either.

 

[DarX]

Apparently, You are correct. Now the key node is Afghanistan for CPEC. And for the 1st time in history, because of Chabahar the table has changed. Now CPEC would be needing Afganistan more than Afganistan would be needing CPEC.

I'm sorry but I don't see how the tables have turned much. Pakistan doesn't have much urgency for access through Afghanistan to Central Asia. When the CPEC connects to Kashgar, a short road right across the Chinese border will connect the CPEC directly from Kashgar to Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan. So Pakistan doesn't need Afghanistan as much as Afghanistan will always need Pakistan. On the other hand, a short road across the Torkham border will connect the CPEC directly into Kabul, which will give Afghanistan natural access to Gwadar, Karachi and China. I do wonder how India will compete with that.

 

[BABA AGHORI]

I'm sorry but I don't see how the tables have turned much. Pakistan doesn't have much urgency for access through Afghanistan to Central Asia. When the CPEC connects to Kashgar, a short road right across the Chinese border will connect the CPEC directly from Kashgar to Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan. So Pakistan doesn't need Afghanistan as much as Afghanistan will always need Pakistan. On the other hand, a short road across the Torkham border will connect the CPEC directly into Kabul, which will give Afghanistan natural access to Gwadar, Karachi and China. I do wonder how India will compete with that.

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I'm sorry but I don't see how the tables have turned much. Pakistan doesn't have much urgency for access through Afghanistan to Central Asia. When the CPEC connects to Kashgar, a short road right across the Chinese border will connect the CPEC directly from Kashgar to Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan.
Yeh, it is the perspective and wearing glasses that not letting you see. For you even Iran can connect to Gawadar through Turkmenistan > Uzbekistan > Kazasksthan > Kashghar and down. But the world doesn't go this way. Only two countries would probably use CPEC through Kashgar Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan but they are neither resource-rich neither a market on there own. Table has turned as now when Pakistani trucks are been blocked to enter Afg. a big trucking business which would have been there, the opportunity is nearly lost.

So Pakistan doesn't need Afghanistan as much as Afghanistan will always need Pakistan. On the other hand, a short road across the Torkham border will connect the CPEC directly into Kabul, which will give Afghanistan natural access to Gwadar, Karachi and China. I do wonder how India will compete with that.
Pakistan does need Afganistan, with current geopolitics no matter how feasible the Karachi port is... Afg. govt is willing to reduce the dependencies on Karachi. And there are powers who will subsidize the alternate route to an extent that it will make Karachi port economically less viable. Moreover, as per international rules only thing, Pakistan was gaining economically from the access for Afg. to Karachi was trucking business and everyone knows who controlled the trucking business in Pakistan. Now when Afg. has blocked your trucks to enter, you can imagine how a big chunk of planned business for trucking all across Central Asia would go down drain after Gawadar and CPEC completion. And moreover I don't think when China brings in there companies, contractors and workers to complete projects for CPEC why will they not bring there own trucks and truckers later on. Yes, this is an assumption but based on the current scenarios.

 

[DarX]

Yeh, it is the perspective and wearing glasses that not letting you see.

The wearing glasses can work both ways. Perhaps they are making you see things that just aren't there.

For you even Iran can connect to Gawadar through Turkmenistan > Uzbekistan > Kazasksthan > Kashghar and down. But the world doesn't go this way. Only two countries would probably use CPEC through Kashgar Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan but they are neither resource-rich neither a market on there own. Table has turned as now when Pakistani trucks are been blocked to enter Afg. a big trucking business which would have been there, the opportunity is nearly lost.

The problem (or benefit) of market dynamics is that, they are impossible to resist and impervious to planning. If Iran would ever find the CPEC feasible, it would use it regardless of any other route. The same goes for Afghanistan. If the CPEC is up and running, this Ghani govt will find itself under great pressure to use it from the Afghan people, and resisting it would use up its political capital.

What you say about the trucking business is inconsequential in the bigger scheme of things. Pakistan will bear all costs to protect its sovereign interests. That includes rejecting the stupid demands of the Northern Alliance govt which has no writ over half of its supposedly "own" country.

Pakistan does need Afganistan, with current geopolitics no matter how feasible the Karachi port is... Afg. govt is willing to reduce the dependencies on Karachi. And there are powers who will subsidize the alternate route to an extent that it will make Karachi port economically less viable. Moreover, as per international rules only thing, Pakistan was gaining economically from the access for Afg. to Karachi was trucking business and everyone knows who controlled the trucking business in Pakistan. Now when Afg. has blocked your trucks to enter, you can imagine how a big chunk of planned business for trucking all across Central Asia would go down drain after Gawadar and CPEC completion. And moreover I don't think when China brings in there companies, contractors and workers to complete projects for CPEC why will they not bring there own trucks and truckers later on. Yes, this is an assumption but based on the current scenarios.

Pakistan needs Afghanistan, but it also knows how to deal with the debauched warlords of that country. We know that they are putting restrictions on business with Pakistan, but we also remember that they tried the same things till 1996, when the Afghan people swept to power and castrated Najibullah on the streets of Kabul.

By the way, I don't know what your sources are, but what I know for sure is that Pakistani trade through Afghanistan to Central Asia was a trickle, with a total of only a few millions, so it isn't a big loss. On the other hand, the demand for trucks within Pakistan has soared to such an extent the share price of Hino Pakistan has risen from PKR 70/- to PKR 1800/- since the CPEC was launched. Afghanistan is NOTHING compared to CPEC. It doesn't even register on our radar.

Moreover, as per international rules only thing, Pakistan was gaining economically from the access for Afg. to Karachi was trucking business and everyone knows who controlled the trucking business in Pakistan.

Hahaha. Please elaborate what you mean by "everyone knows who controlled the trucking business in Pakistan". If you are pointing to the army, I would like to inform you that everything the Indian government tells its people is not true. The Pakistan army has no control on trucking and it is all owned by the Pakhtoons.

 

[MultaniGuy]

Haha. Man they are such prolific liars that they have instituted laws and filed cases against international companies which do not show their maps. The West is supporting them because they are manipulating the Indians against the Chinese and so all rules are being bent to appease them. It is all propaganda.

But the funny bit is that, like how the west damaged Pakistan by supporting dictatorships to reach their own objectives, now they are applauding Modi as he turns increasingly towards Hindu fascism. Blunders such as Demonetization are being hailed and instead of development, they have wasted billions of dollars on expensive arms. That is why I am betting that not only will this remain just propaganda, but it threatens India's own future.



All of these attacks are perpetrated by the TTP Jamaat Ul Ahraar, whose leaders have confessed to having direct contacts with India. The only ethnic and political violence was committed by the MQM, whose members confessed before the Scotland Yard that they got all their funding from India. The members who surrendered confessed that they got their training when they visited India. These are no longer secrets.

Do you really think India is that innocent that it has never done anything of this sort in its life? When Pakistan supported the Pakhtuns Taliban, India was supporting the Soviet occupation, the Najibullah govt and then the debauched Northern Alliance govt. It has been this oppression by India which caused the Afghan govt to lose 50% of its country up till now.

True, true. I agree with you.

 

[Peshwa]

Tell me a single instance when you proved yourself as a cat . A country which has been used till now by others is calling mouse to another nation which has independent F.P.

What he is referring to is the commonly used laymans term for a cat, "pussy"...

 

[Areesh]

Oh plss...

Go and see indian news papers, your nation only get a mention when there are issues of terror etc.

99% of indians dont even know about this forum and those who are here comes to troll(80%) and you call it obsession ?

Well due to your jahalat and poor IQ you might not get it but that exactly the definition of obsession what you said in your post.

"pussy"...

No wonder rapes are rampant in India.

Even in something serious and about regional ports, you somehow brought your favorite topic in the thread.

 

[Peshwa]

Well due to your jahalat and poor IQ you might not get it but that exactly the definition of obsession what you said in your post.





No wonder rapes are rampant in India.

Even in something serious and about regional ports, you somehow brought your favorite topic in the thread.

You got a problem with "pussy"?

Besides, I was just giving you an assist....helping the poster understand your post better..lol

 

[Areesh]

You got a problem with "pussy"?

Just pointed out a problem with your post. You indians can carry on with your favorite topic.

 

[nang2]

there's no relationship between Afghanistan and CPEC. Afghanistan and China are neighbors. no need to go through a 3rd country.

 

[-blitzkrieg-]

Cool, I'm impressed, So for central Asian countries to access Chinese market they have to go through CPEC. And from where Pakistani market became grand over the Indian one when what CAR countries mostly export energy and ore.
Now am also amazed that still CAR countries don't have any alternate routes to Arabian seas other than Pakistan. Chabahar will be functional before CPEC gets functional. Most of the market for CAR is either East towards Europe or West towards China, And for India they won't be needing CPEC either.

it seems you are just arguing for the sake of an argument...
Central ASian markets will use OBOR to access the Chinese market and CPEC to access Pakistani market plus anything getting docked at Karachi.
Never said India is not a grand market but its funny you dont consider Pakistan one.Pakistan is the sixth most populous country in the world with a lot of potential.Its attitude like this that makes you a shoddy trader.
Also never said CAR dont have alternate trade routes..What a silly assumption. CAR can tap the African market as well as the Australasia markets through Pakistan.One thing CAR is rich at is fossil fuel and electricity. Pakistan needs both..

 

[yavar]

ایران افتتاح رسمی فاز نخست بندر شهید بهشتی چابهار
ایران هندوستان افغانستان عمان
Iran official opening of the first phase of Shahid Beheshti Foreign-Trade Zone, Chabahar sea port
Iran India Afghanistan Oman