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India's bullet train is yet to gather speed

I never said they don't work.

I said they are not profitable and not sustainable if they are not profitable.

If china was making money on the HSR, it would be profitable, but fact is , its NOT.

Currently its public funds that is sustaining it, and that is only possible if china continues to grow incredibly fast. \

As the article said, As of March, China Railway's total debts stood at RMB 5 trillion

That is close to a Total Debt of 73 Billion USD.
Defence industry, education, research science ,healthcare, they all cost money , so is transportation, we need them to keep China's economy on the track, they guarrantee the smooth operation of the country.

Comparing to what we make because of them, the cost of having them is almost like nothing. India can take a different approach, if you don't like it, you can scrap your HSR project and stick to your hazadous current railway operation.
 
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Every country has different economic situations and at the moment, our 15 b usd HSR is a shot in the dark. I doubt it will ever recover its investment. Japan will have to be paid through other taxes.
Difference is China is building it through its own internal revenue and is not worried about internal debt. While India is taking a external debt and we are a negative BOP country.
The only profitable beijing shanghai route has operational profit not including any debt repayment for the project. I don't know how funding is structured in Chinese HSR. But it can run as a public subsidised utility like roads and metros.
 
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Defence industry, education, research science ,healthcare, they all cost money , so is transportation, we need them to keep China's economy on the track, they guarrantee the smooth operation of the country.

Comparing to what we make because of them, the cost of having them is almost like nothing. India can take a different approach, if you don't like it, you can scrap your HSR project and stick to your hazadous current railway operation.

I am not seeking "advice" on what India needs to do. That is not the point here is it ?

Your HSR has a 73 Billion $ debt that is growing as we speak. Soon it will be 100 Billion $.

This has no correlation to Defense, education , research or healthcare.

HSR actually REDUCES funding to these things since it absorbs all this cash and runs at a ever growing loss.

The only thing one can claim is improvement in productivity due to less time for Travel, but if you consider the profitability of airlines for the same distance and time, That is a more practical approach.

Building the HSR would have boosted your economy, but now unless that infrastructure is productive and profitable, it is going to SINK your economy.

The only way to counter that is to KEEP Building more HSR, but china is running out of space to do that.

Every country has different economic situations and at the moment, our 15 b usd HSR is a shot in the dark. I doubt it will ever recover its investment. Japan will have to be paid through other taxes.
Difference is China is building it through its own internal revenue and is not worried about internal debt. While India is taking a external debt and we are a negative BOP country.
The only profitable beijing shanghai route has operational profit not including any debt repayment for the project. I don't know how funding is structured in Chinese HSR. But it can run as a public subsidised utility like roads and metros.

India got 15 billion loan to build this Bullet train system, with a repayment period of 60 years and interest of 0.1%.

On top of this, we got a 75 BILLION $ Currency swap with Japan, which will Freeze the exchange rate between INR and Yen.

SO explain to me, HOW on earth is this project going to be a burden on India ?

Needless to say, India will be gaining the expertise to building and running Bullet trains and this will not only boost our Scientific and Technical strength, it will boost employment, boost control systems and safety systems in India and IR. Not to mention the fact that the connectivity itself will boost the economy.
 
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I am not seeking "advice" on what India needs to do. That is not the point here is it ?

Your HSR has a 73 Billion $ debt that is growing as we speak. Soon it will be 100 Billion $.

This has no correlation to Defense, education , research or healthcare.

HSR actually REDUCES funding to these things since it absorbs all this cash and runs at a ever growing loss.

The only thing one can claim is improvement in productivity due to less time for Travel, but if you consider the profitability of airlines for the same distance and time, That is a more practical approach.

Building the HSR would have boosted your economy, but now unless that infrastructure is productive and profitable, it is going to SINK your economy.

The only way to counter that is to KEEP Building more HSR, but china is running out of space to do that.
LOL, China has a lot of space to do so and operation cost will be decrease with time. comparing to the business opportunities they bring in, the cost of having them is really nothing, subways lose more money than HSR, but no one can imagine go without them.
As for your claim that Chinese HSR will SINK our economy, to be frank that's the first time I heard it, and let's wait and see. And since you are this strongly negative about the Chinese HSR, why not advice your own government to drop yours?
 
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LOL, China has a lot of space to do so and operation cost will be decrease with time. comparing to the business opportunities they bring in, the cost of having them is really nothing, subways lose more money than HSR, but no one can imagine go without them.
As for your claim that Chinese HSR will SINK our economy, to be frank that's the first time I heard it, and let's wait and see. And since you are this strongly negative about the Chinese HSR, why not advice your own government to drop yours?

Why don't you show me the Tangible benefit of the HSR in real USD terms ?

Subway is a mass transit system. HSR is not.

Operational cost of Subway is far far less than the operational and Maintenance cost of HSR.

Why don't you prove to me that the HSR will turn profitable in the next 10 -20 or 30 year ?

I have already shown how the HSR for India will be profitable considering we are building it for free. (for all practical purpose)
 
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I am not seeking "advice" on what India needs to do. That is not the point here is it ?

Your HSR has a 73 Billion $ debt that is growing as we speak. Soon it will be 100 Billion $.

This has no correlation to Defense, education , research or healthcare.

HSR actually REDUCES funding to these things since it absorbs all this cash and runs at a ever growing loss.

The only thing one can claim is improvement in productivity due to less time for Travel, but if you consider the profitability of airlines for the same distance and time, That is a more practical approach.

Building the HSR would have boosted your economy, but now unless that infrastructure is productive and profitable, it is going to SINK your economy.

The only way to counter that is to KEEP Building more HSR, but china is running out of space to do that.



India got 15 billion loan to build this Bullet train system, with a repayment period of 60 years and interest of 0.1%.

On top of this, we got a 75 BILLION $ Currency swap with Japan, which will Freeze the exchange rate between INR and Yen.

SO explain to me, HOW on earth is this project going to be a burden on India ?

Needless to say, India will be gaining the expertise to building and running Bullet trains and this will not only boost our Scientific and Technical strength, it will boost employment, boost control systems and safety systems in India and IR. Not to mention the fact that the connectivity itself will boost the economy.
Firstly don't react like the Chinese members here, let's stay different and open in our responses.
As you have pointed out, the Chinese hsr are all loss making, then why do u assume the ahd Mumbai train will be profitable?
Also the present trains in that route are not fully loaded, at a 60 to 70 % load, so where will they get the extra passengers?
 
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Why don't you show me the Tangible benefit of the HSR in real USD terms ?

Subway is a mass transit system. HSR is not.

Operational cost of Subway is far far less than the operational and Maintenance cost of HSR.

Why don't you prove to me that the HSR will turn profitable in the next 10 -20 or 30 year ?

I have already shown how the HSR for India will be profitable considering we are building it for free. (for all practical purpose)
You don't even have one, it's all your claim but facts can be very different, you can claim anything ,but Chinese HSR will SINK Chinese economy is a rather bold one, we'll see and wait to see if Indian one will be the one you described, India has a long track record of delaying projects indefinitely, so I really don't know when we can see one there.
 
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You don't even have one, it's all your claim but facts can be very different, you can claim anything ,but Chinese HSR will SINK Chinese economy is a rather bold one, we'll see and wait to see if Indian one will be the one you described, India has a long track record of delaying projects indefinitely, so I really don't know when we can see one there.
Won't sink anything as Chinese have a robust economy and prices can always be raised. As the oil supplies run out or become costly in a decade or two, then these trains might turn out to be really useful as compared to air travel. But in the near future they will be loss making.
 
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You don't even have one, it's all your claim but facts can be very different, you can claim anything ,but Chinese HSR will SINK Chinese economy is a rather bold one, we'll see and wait to see if Indian one will be the one you described, India has a long track record of delaying projects indefinitely, so I really don't know when we can see one there.

You are deflecting when asked to prove you case.

You do not have any data about HSR nor do you have any facts. All you have is propaganda and tall claims.

So far chinese Railways is in 73 Billion $ debt. (in march 2018) and that is growing.

Chinese economy is 12 Trillion. The context is that HSR is a sinkhole where the govt. pours in money for political reasons.

Firstly don't react like the Chinese members here, let's stay different and open in our responses.
As you have pointed out, the Chinese hsr are all loss making, then why do u assume the ahd Mumbai train will be profitable?
Also the present trains in that route are not fully loaded, at a 60 to 70 % load, so where will they get the extra passengers?

I never claimed its going to be profitable.

I claimed it will be sustainable. Both are two different things.

Considering the fact that the repayment period for that line is after 60 years, and with our economy looking to double itself every 10 years (conservative estimate), in the next 60 years we would be a 80 Trillion $ economy.

How difficult is it going to be to pay back 15 billion $ ?
 
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Godfree Roberts, Ed.D. Education & Geopolitics, University of Massachusetts, Amherst
Updated Sep 6, 2017 ·

Yes, China’s high speed rail is profitable and there aren’t many Chinese who haven’t personally profited from it, either. It’s an excellent, highly visible example of how China designs its programs holistically– whether they’re for infrastructure, social security or defense–and eliminates what Western economists call ‘externalities’ (things, like pollution, that someone else must pay for. There is no ‘someone else’ in China; there’s only ‘us’).

To be fully inclusive, I’m going to borrow the best points from the best answers by Walter, ZhenXiang Shi, Yu Cheng, X. Huang, Wen Ling, Haiyan Chen and Prasanna Bhalerao and add a dimension that foreign critics of China often miss. But first, let’s review some infrastructure history to help us understand why critics have long predicted problems for China.

One of the most famous, most popular high speed rail lines on earth is the 400 km London-Paris Eurostar: “The company awarded a contract for the construction of the tunnel to TransManche Link (TML). The tunnel cost around £9.5bn to build, about double TML's original estimate of £4.7bn. The tunnel was financed partly from investment by shareholders and partly from £8bn of debt, and was officially opened on 6 May 1994 by HM Queen Elizabeth II, and President François Mitterrand. In its first year of operation the company lost £925m because of disappointing revenue from passengers and freight, together with heavy interest charges on its £8bn of debt. In April 2004, a dissident shareholder group led by Nicolas Miguet succeeded in taking control of the board. However, in February 2005, Jean-Louis Raymond, the Chief Executive appointed after the boardroom coup, resigned and Jacques Gounon took complete control becoming Chairman and Chief Executive. In July 2006, shareholders voted on a deal which would have seen half the debt, by then reduced to £6.2bn, exchanged for 87% of the equity. However this plan failed, and on 2 August 2006, the company was placed into bankruptcy protection by a French court for six months”.

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Eurostar’s experience confirmed what neoliberal critics had long claimed: infrastructure is unprofitable even if it benefits millions of people. So it’s natural that, when the Chinese government built 20,000 km of even higher-speed rail, skeptics predicted bankruptcy. High-speed rail service in China was introduced on April 18, 2007 and traffic has grown 30% per annum ever since, reaching 1.44 billion in 2016: four times of the HSR volume in Japan, nine times France’s, and greater than north America’s total air traffic.

Despite these impressive figures, every completed line incurs losses in its first years of operation. The Beijing–Tianjin HSR cost ¥20.42 billion to build and ¥1.8 billion annually to operate, (including ¥0.6 billion in interest payments) and needed to provide 40 million rides a year to reach profitabilty. In its first year, 2008–2009, it carried 18.7 million riders and generated ¥1.1 billion in revenues for a loss of ¥0.7 billion. The next year, ridership rose to 22.3 million and revenues improved to ¥1.4 billion, for a ¥0.5 billion loss. By 2016 it was maxed out, providing 100 million rides–100% capacity–and highly profitable. Construction of a second line has commenced. (WikiVisually).

China’s HSR network has exceeded its predictions–both technically and financially–and is solidly profitable today.

Where do the profits come from and how are profits diverted to pay off construction loans? The answers are: they come from almost everywhere and, since every aspect of the network is cooperatively owned, it’s easy to skim off enough pay the interest and retire the bonds when they fall due. ‘Everywhere’ is a little vague, so here’s a list of the cost savings and some revenue streams:

  • Increased forecasting accuracy. The more they have built, the more accurate their predictions have become. Accurate predictions lead to accurate financial models which lead to accurate bond pricing.
  • Low construction cost. The program benefits from scale. From mass-produced, unballasted rail sections to bridges (ordered by the meter) to engines and carriages. Production and demand are tightly integrated, eliminating stop-and-go and costly downtime. Current construction and manufacturing costs are now 30%-40% cheaper than anywhere on earth. Here’s an example of how automated the process is: the SLJ900/32 Bridge Girder Erector Machine lays a pre-fabbed tranche of track in 50 minutes, much faster than if done by 20 workers. High-Speed Railways in China: A Look at Construction Costs
  • Economic stimulus from the initial investment. A surprising percentage of the $650 billion invested (so far) came back within twelve months in the form of income and sales taxes that ripple out in all directions from the factories and construction sites. HSR construction creates jobs and lifts demand for construction, steel and cement industries during the economic downturn. Work on the Beijing–Shanghai HSR mobilized 110,000 workers.
  • Land development. This is the system’s ace card: Those shopping complexes at the stations? A share of the rents goes to pay off the bonds. Land sales around the stations? A share of the sales price goes to pay off the bonds. The increased commercial activity around stations? A share of the increased taxes help pay off the bonds. Those ‘stations in the middle of nowhere’? When new towns are built around them, land sales and development and the increased tax base will help pay off the bonds.
  • Increased productivity from passenger time savings. Improves economic productivity and competitiveness over the long term by increasing the transport capacity of railways and linking labor markets. The World Bank’s survey found that high-speed passengers' average income is 35-50% higher than that of passengers on conventional trains. This year (2017), if 1.8 billion riders each saves an average of four hours compared to automobile, plane or regular train and the average urban wage in 2017 is US $1,000/mo, then HSR will save the average rider $24 of productive time, for a total of $43 billion. that will, eventually, boost economic activity and, of course, tax revenues.
  • Ticket revenues. Since the first line opened, ticket prices have stayed almost flat while the average wage has doubled. Today, twice as many people can afford HSR as could afford it in 2007.
  • Enhanced freight revenues. Intercity high speed package delivery is a large and growing revenue source. Today someone who lives in Shanghai can order products from Alibaba in the morning and get them in the evening thanks to the HSR network, another reason why China's e-commerce is flourishing. Improved productivity and competitiveness generate increased taxes. Moving passengers to high-speed lines frees up older railways to carry more freight, which is more profitable for railways than passengers.
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  • Advertising revenues. Billions of ‘impressions’ to passengers whose average income is 30–50% higher than the national average.
  • Concession revenues (food and drink). Those snack carts, station concessions, drink dispensers? They’re paying off the bonds, too.
  • Environmental benefits. HSR reduces noise, high-atmosphere pollution and CO2 dramatically. These are direct contributions to quality of life and indirect contributions to reducing atmospheric pollution, thus raising the value of surrounding land.
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  • Tourism revenues. ‘The results indicate that at the national level, a trend of convergence emerges during the three-year period of analysis in both China and Korea. At the HSR passing area level, HSR contributes to accelerate regional economic convergence and reduce the regional income disparities in China’. HSR is responsible for 59% of the increase in market potential for the secondary cities connected by bullet trains. (Economic geographers call market potential "a geographic area's access to markets for inputs and outputs"). A 10% increase in a secondary city's market potential is expected to be associated with a 4.5% increase in its average real estate price. HSR promotes the growth of second-tier cities by making them more livable/desirable–and, of course, collects taxes on the increased revenues that go to pay….you know the rest.
  • National cohesion and a national market. People, products and services move quickly, allowing people to live in one place and work in another. HSR helps rural areas profit from their natural resources by bringing business opportunities and tourists–while reducing rural people’s isolation (think Tibet!).
  • Intellectual property exports. China is a leading source of high-speed rail technology. Chinese train-makers have absorbed imported technologies quickly, localized production processes and began competing in the export market. Six years after receiving Kawasaki's license to produce Shinkansen E2, CSC Sifang produced the CRH2A without Japanese input (Kawasaki ended cooperation with Sifang and has been sulking ever since).
  • Energy savings. Electric trains use less energy to transport people and goods on a per unit basis and can draw power from more diverse sources of energy–including renewables–than automobile and aircraft, which are more reliant on imported petroleum. This cuts billions from China’s energy import bills.
  • Scale savings: more profitable lines subsidize less profitable lines that serve thinly populated areas (think Tibet again).
Because the government controls all these factors for the benefit of all the people, it can skim off enough from each to easily repay the bonds.

And this is just one of hundreds of such projects underway whose planners approach them in the same holistic way.
 
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You are deflecting when asked to prove you case.

You do not have any data about HSR nor do you have any facts. All you have is propaganda and tall claims.

So far chinese Railways is in 73 Billion $ debt. (in march 2018) and that is growing.

Chinese economy is 12 Trillion. The context is that HSR is a sinkhole where the govt. pours in money for political reasons.



I never claimed its going to be profitable.

I claimed it will be sustainable. Both are two different things.

Considering the fact that the repayment period for that line is after 60 years, and with our economy looking to double itself every 10 years (conservative estimate), in the next 60 years we would be a 80 Trillion $ economy.

How difficult is it going to be to pay back 15 billion $ ?
We were going to increase our IT export revenue to 200 b usd but its stuck at 100 b usd.
Similarly our diamond exports.
I don't understand your sustainable point, u mean like Air India ?
If demand was assured,, this route would be a dead shot but the loading is not their. Check the shatabdi availabilty on this route for tomorrow and weekdays and see the empty seats. Actually I tried to study the viability for this hsr but not much is available in the public domain. Surprised that Indian railways didn't raise the red flag.
Also trains can be modernized without requiring 320 kmph speeds.
Speeds of 250 kmph, with new signalling systems and ballast free tracks all add to a good customer experience. Without breaking the bank.
Instead of concentrating on only higher classes like shatabdi and rajadhani, improve the experience for the other 80% of our travelling public.
 
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private ownership is a basic right which maoists won't understand hence the difficulty ,in india most big real estate projects go this way because govt is answerable to citizens not other way round.
 
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private ownership is a basic right which maoists won't understand hence the difficulty ,in india most big real estate projects go this way because govt is answerable to citizens not other way round.
The only place that you can still find Maoists is probably India, in China it's banned for a long time.
 
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We were going to increase our IT export revenue to 200 b usd but its stuck at 100 b usd.
Similarly our diamond exports.

This is a classic STRAWMAN and shows your Dishonest narrative.

One could very easily look at pharmaceutical exports and see a consistent growth.

I don't understand your sustainable point, u mean like Air India ?

Like Railways.

If demand was assured,, this route would be a dead shot but the loading is not their. Check the shatabdi availabilty on this route for tomorrow and weekdays and see the empty seats. Actually I tried to study the viability for this hsr but not much is available in the public domain. Surprised that Indian railways didn't raise the red flag.

Why should I look at the loading for tomorrow ? I need to be looking at the loading from 2023 and beyond. What is the projected passenger traffic based on current growth rate ?

What is the passenger traffic in 2030 ? in 2040 ? in 2050 ?

What is the export potential of Indian HSR in 2030 ? 2040 ? 2050 ?

What is the opportunity cost ?

If your study is based on shatabdi route for tomorrow then you are clearly an idiot who cannot even estimate the correct timeline for any projection.

Also trains can be modernized without requiring 320 kmph speeds.

Speeds of 250 kmph, with new signalling systems and ballast free tracks all add to a good customer experience. Without breaking the bank.

So ? Who is stopping the railways from reaching 250 by upgrading its existing network ? How is this related to HSR ? This is related to Train 18 and Train 20.


Instead of concentrating on only higher classes like shatabdi and rajadhani, improve the experience for the other 80% of our travelling public.

This is pure Rubbish since Japan is not funding us to improve the travel for 80% of the general public. That is what the Railway budget is for.

The funding for the HSR is by Japan and that money is not available for anything else.

You clearly lack common sense. Both these things are not mutually exclusive.
 
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This is a classic STRAWMAN and shows your Dishonest narrative.

One could very easily look at pharmaceutical exports and see a consistent growth.



Like Railways.



Why should I look at the loading for tomorrow ? I need to be looking at the loading from 2023 and beyond. What is the projected passenger traffic based on current growth rate ?

What is the passenger traffic in 2030 ? in 2040 ? in 2050 ?

What is the export potential of Indian HSR in 2030 ? 2040 ? 2050 ?

What is the opportunity cost ?

If your study is based on shatabdi route for tomorrow then you are clearly an idiot who cannot even estimate the correct timeline for any projection.



So ? Who is stopping the railways from reaching 250 by upgrading its existing network ? How is this related to HSR ? This is related to Train 18 and Train 20.




This is pure Rubbish since Japan is not funding us to improve the travel for 80% of the general public. That is what the Railway budget is for.

The funding for the HSR is by Japan and that money is not available for anything else.

You clearly lack common sense. Both these things are not mutually exclusive.
I might be wrong but you are too emotional.
Pharmas growth has also slowed down and IR are a loss making enterprise which is stuck in the 1970s.
Operating costs rise significantly from a speed of 250 to 320 kmph.
The Indian Republic is borrowing from Japan and the money has to be returned.
As I said I can't find any good projections for the hsr in India, I am open to be convinced.
Why would Japan refuse us loans for other rail projects? You do realise that India and JICA has a very fruitful relationship, Delhi metro being a example.
 
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