India's Biggest $25 Billion Defence Deal to Crash Land

[BDforever]

India's Biggest $25 Billion Defence Deal to Crash Land
By Pradip R Sagar

Published: 24th Apr 2016 04:03:54 AM

• Photos

• 
  
  A file photo of US F16 jet fighter | AFP

NEW DELHI: India has a record of sour defence deals. While the Rafael deal with France to buy 36 fighters jets at nearly `60,000 crore is stuck over a year despite announcement made by PM Narendra Modi during his Paris visit in April 2015, India’s biggest defence buy with its old military hardware partner Russia threatens to crash. It is thrice bigger than the French deal and concerns 127 Fifth Generation Fighter Aircraft (FGFA) costing over $25 billion. `1,500 crore, which India has already paid for preliminary design of the aircraft, may go down the drain. It is the IAF—despite desperation to strengthen its combat fleet—that has put its foot down, citing differences with Russia, the co-developer of the FGFA project.

In an internal communication to the Ministry of Defence, the Air Headquarters has flagged at least 15 objections to the Fifth Generation Fighter Aircraft (FGFA), ranging from fighter’s unreliable engine, poor stealth features, and inadequate radar to its high cost overrun. The letter sent last month has virtually grounded the entire program.

“Under the present scenario, only a political call can revive the program,” a highly placed source said.

In fact, IAF went further to slam Russians for not giving access to the developed prototypes of the aircraft to its pilots. Moreover, it also expressed apprehension that the Russians would not share critical design information with India because they have deliberately reduced the Indian work share despite India’s huge expenditure on the preliminary design. India’s work share in FGFA research and development and other aspects of the multi-billion dollar project at the moment is nearly 10 per cent, even though Delhi is bearing 50 per cent of the project cost.

In 2007, the Congress-led UPA government had signed an inter-governmental agreement with Russia to co-develop the next generation FGFA. It was followed by the $295 million (`1,483 crore) preliminary design contract (PDC) in December 2010. The overall FGFA project cost for making all the 127 fighters in India was pegged at around $25 billion.

The preliminary design stage of the FGFA programme was completed in June 2013 based on a contract signed in December 2010 with the Russian side.

As per the Inter-Governmental Agreement (IGA) signed in October 2007, Hindustan Aeronautics Limited (HAL) is the designated implementation organisation from the Indian side. HAL is supported by agencies, including Defence Research and Development Organisation (DRDO) and Council for Scientific and Industrial Research (CSIR).

The programme requires further $6 billion towards its research and development contract. Defence Minister Manohar Parrikar-led defence acquisition council has to give its approval for the R&D contract. It is believed that the delivery of FGFA to the IAF will begin only after nearly eight years from the start of the R&D contract.

“The ministry is in a dilemma over the future of the program after resistance from the IAF. But simultaneously, the Indian government has already spent a sizeable amount of Rs 1,500 crore on the program. And if the program does not make, spent money might go in waste,” said an official. This deal created controversy during 2011, when a clause was inserted in violation of the defence procurement policy to give contract to Russia to provide International Private Leased Circuit (IPLC) bandwidth connectivity between Bangalore-Moscow-Irkutsk to lay communication lines between the two partners.

IAF’s depleting combat strength has been a cause of concern as it is down to 34 fighter squadrons against 42 of its authorised strength based on certain projections in the next couple of years. IAF is getting four squadrons of Su-30 and subsequently indigenously built Light Combat aircraft Tejas is expected to fill the critical requirement of the force.

Collision Course

■ IAF claims developed engine of FGFA was not reliable

■ Inadequate radar and stealth features

■ Huge cost over-run

■ India’s reduced share. Lack of participation by IAF in the design phase

■ IAF apprehensive that Russia will not share technology


http://www.newindianexpress.com/the...l-to-Crash-Land/2016/04/24/article3396450.ece

Wow, so it sounds like Russia's 5th generation attempt is crashing and burning.

Makes me wonder about China's attempts.

At least where it comes to the J-31, the fact that China is not buying it themselves and only Pakistan has even expressed interest (no commitment) tells me that its likely a failure.

This is China's chance to leapfrog Russia in anycase, I wonder if they can do it with the J-20.If Russia is having trouble with the engines, then I have doubts when it comes to China, who has had trouble developing one and historically relies on Russian engines.

I really think problem is with IAF, not with others.
IAF has problem with Tejas,
IAF has problem with Rafael,
IAF has problem with PAK-FA
it seems IAF has problem with everybody ! !

 

[C130]

5th gen is hard and it takes a long time to actually get it right

it takes at least 15 years to make such a bird and make it worthy for action


Russia didn't get serious with the Pak-FA til the mid 2000's and it's R&D has been many times lower than what the U.S has spent on it's own 5th gen fighters.


it's too early to say if it's a failure and even if it is, I bet Russia will use what systems it has develop for the Pak-FA and put it into the proven Su-27 air frame or start over with a new 5th gen design.

 

[Natan]

Collision Course

■ IAF claims developed engine of FGFA was not reliable

■ Inadequate radar and stealth features

■ Huge cost over-run

■ India’s reduced share. Lack of participation by IAF in the design phase

■ IAF apprehensive that Russia will not share technology

The whole idea of Indian cooperation with Russia will cost India at least twice more than expected, will make India wait for delivery at least twice longer than expected, and eventually will meet no more than half of India's expectations.

 

[forcetrip]

The whole idea of Indian cooperation with Russia will cost India at least twice more than expected, will make India wait for delivery at least twice longer than expected, and eventually will meet no more than half of India's expectations.

So basically you are saying its a T-50%?

 

[Arsalan]

The more sensible approach for India will be to join F35 program. Though not a HUGE success story in it self, India can be a keep partner in a somewhat struggling F35 program. Get even more close to there new friends. Keeping in mind the new found love between US and India that is more then likely that the "15 objections" found in T50 program have something to do with this new developing relation as well. US will love the idea of Indian $$ coming there way rather then ruskies and Indian will be happy as it seems they have just discovered "how pathetic every other countries military hardware is except the Americans" so they would like to be partner with them as well.

From a Pakistani perspective, this will be good news for us, IF we manage to exploit it properly for once (at which we do not have a good track in)

 

[mehboobkz]

If the Russian Air Force retains SUCH Fifth Generation Fighter Aircraft (FGFA) for itself, such product is ought to be good. If not, rancorous Russia is punishing, fleecing India/Modi for being US friendly.

 

[Natan]

So basically you are saying its a T-50%?

<50%

 

[Perpendicular]

A contract for development work (R&D) of the Russian-Indian fighter FGFA project has been negotiated and will be signed in the coming months, The Indian newspaper The Tribune has reported, citing sources in the country’s Defence Ministry.

The agreement involves the second phase of the work on the FGFA fighter. The first contract for development of future machine’s technical aspects, signed in 2010, was completed in June 2013 and cost 295 million dollars. For over two years after that, a harmonization of conditions for further work on the aircraft continued.

Under the second phase contract, full-scale R & D will be launched, for development of the fighter, taking into account Indian requirements. The value of the transaction for the period of seven years (including the designing of the aircraft and three years before the machine’s first flight) is estimated at four billion

The Indian Air Force is interested in buying a total of around 200 of these fighters.

The base for the FGFA aircraft is the Russian fifth generation fighter T-50, designed and built by the Sukhoi Design Bureau in the framework of the PAK FA project.

Previously announced estimates state that India's share in the structure of works on the creation of FGFA will reach 40 percent (initially, only 13 percent was proposed).

New Delhi has put forward more than 40 specific requests. These include making use of the latest Russian engines, providing a cruising supersonic speed (the currently available AL 41F1 engines are not suitable for India’s requirements), an airborne radar system with all-round visibility; and reduced radar visibility in comparison with the prototype.

https://in.rbth.com/economics/defen...ndia-agree-on-contract-to-develop-fgfa_592893

 

[knight11]

The more sensible approach for India will be to join F35 program. Though not a HUGE success story in it self, India can be a keep partner in a somewhat struggling F35 program. Get even more close to there new friends. Keeping in mind the new found love between US and India that is more then likely that the "15 objections" found in T50 program have something to do with this new developing relation as well. US will love the idea of Indian $$ coming there way rather then ruskies and Indian will be happy as it seems they have just discovered "how pathetic every other countries military hardware is except the Americans" so they would like to be partner with them as well.

From a Pakistani perspective, this will be good news for us, IF we manage to exploit it properly for once (at which we do not have a good track in)

IAF don't required F-35, strike aircraft, because it is already comitted with the Rafale which is also 5th Generation warfare capable What India would need in the future is the Air Superiority/ Air Defence bird, such as F-22 (Which is not available to anyone in the world except USAF) which could provide air defence and support the Strike aircraft and the Stealth UCAV. In short no country is going to share anything like 5th Gen plane to India except Russia. F-35 will not come alone it have many deals which will come along like BECA, CISMOA, LSA and would also required the US equipments like communication, Radars -- in short the whole US infrastructure, and the string attached from the US satellite, which will upload the flight data, to the US server from India, and US mission program before each mission, and yes maintained by the US technitians in the Indian Base -- Which is not acceptable for the India why ?

1. We already have AMCA program
2. We already have stealth UCAV program called AURA/Ghatak. (Both of them would be benifitted with the Rafale deal)
3. We already have space tech. and soon India Air force dedicated Satellite.
4. We have requirement which is different than US and NATO, and have separate and independent policy.

The whole idea of Indian cooperation with Russia will cost India at least twice more than expected, will make India wait for delivery at least twice longer than expected, and eventually will meet no more than half of India's expectations.

Lets be practical US is 2 generation ahead of the whole world.
The only country which is capable of developing the 5th Generation Aircraft is Russia and Europe.
Europe will not go for 5th Gen, and will go directly go for the 6th Gen aka Stealth UCAV, and Russia have the problem called the money. For Russia, the best candidate for the partnership for the 5th Gen. is China, and second one is India. With China the problem is the Chinese IPR voilation cases, this leaves India. However India is only interested in FGFA and not PAK-FA. The other candidate which might be possible, and have good economy is Brazil.

Collision Course

■ IAF claims developed engine of FGFA was not reliable

■ Inadequate radar and stealth features

■ Huge cost over-run

■ India’s reduced share. Lack of participation by IAF in the design phase

■ IAF apprehensive that Russia will not share technology

IAF is the user, and is showing concerned that the engine, intended to be developed for the PAK-FA is not ready yet.

Wow, so it sounds like Russia's 5th generation attempt is crashing and burning.

How ?

Makes me wonder about China's attempts.

China have Money, Industrial base, Dedication and political Will. Sooner of latter it will get the J-20. However how much time it will depend on how much time it will take to remove all teething problem with the engines and the maturity of the Avionics.

At least where it comes to the J-31, the fact that China is not buying it themselves and only Pakistan has even expressed interest (no commitment) tells me that its likely a failure.

J-31 was always meant for the export and PAF might be the first customer. It should be around 2030, that PAF could get J-31, but PAF might induct it earlier without FOC.

This is China's chance to leapfrog Russia in anycase, I wonder if they can do it with the J-20.If Russia is having trouble with the engines, then I have doubts when it comes to China, who has had trouble developing one and historically relies on Russian engines.

Russian Engines differ with the western engine with the reliability and the life factor, but are also cheaper in comparison. The new engine which Russia is developing for its 5th Gen aircraft, will have more reliability, and have reduced heat signature that's why delay is there. And also Russia is not Soviet with 500 Billion Dollor Defence Budget anymore.

 

[RealNapster]

I really think problem is with IAF, not with others.
IAF has problem with Tejas,
IAF has problem with Rafael,
IAF has problem with PAK-FA
it seems IAF has problem with everybody ! !

IAF has problem with IAF

 

[Arsalan]

IAF don't required F-35, strike aircraft, because it is already comitted with the Rafale which is also 5th Generation warfare capable. . .

AND i stopped reading!!
I understand that IAF is going to buy Rafale and surely as an India you will like this bird but that wont bring it in same league as F22 or F35 or J20 or PAKFA or ANYOTHER freaking fight generation plan. If you are of the view that Rafale is 5th gen war capable and will be able to deal with the 5th gen planes, i rest my case and wish you the very best of luck sir.

 

[C130]

AND i stopped reading!!
I understand that IAF is going to buy Rafale and surely as an India you will like this bird but that wont bring it in same league as F22 or F35 or J20 or PAKFA or ANYOTHER freaking fight generation plan. If you are of the view that Rafale is 5th gen war capable and will be able to deal with the 5th gen planes, i rest my case and wish you the very best of luck sir.

I like the Rafale and it has some capabilities that you could consider on par with 5th gen like the F-35, but it simply falls short,

Price- F-35
Stealth-F-35
Radar-F-35
EW/Avionics-F-35 (though Spectra is touted as revolutionary)
Range-Rafale
Maneuverability-Rafale
Supercruise- Rafale (4 AAM+ 1 Drop tank)
Weapons-F-35


I would still have a hard time chosing either the F-35 or Rafale F3R guess it would come down to Price and what you need.

 

[BDforever]

I Feel you was the same guy who was claiming BD will develop nukes through russian reactors

no I was the guy who showed sympathy on Indian worry

 

[Arsalan]

I like the Rafale and it has some capabilities that you could consider on par with 5th gen like the F-35, but it simply falls short,

Price- F-35
Stealth-F-35
Radar-F-35
EW/Avionics-F-35 (though Spectra is touted as revolutionary)
Range-Rafale
Maneuverability-Rafale
Supercruise- Rafale (4 AAM+ 1 Drop tank)
Weapons-F-35


I would still have a hard time chosing either the F-35 or Rafale F3R guess it would come down to Price and what you need.

You explained the point i raised pretty well. Thanks!

 

[Rank]

Nothing new.. simple India ditch Russia for USA... Russia do the same... sara friend frund nikal jayega intezaar kijiye lol