Indian Rupee dives a new record low against dollar

[Śakra]

Me no economist just a poor farmer who likes reading stuff.

You have the confidence of an uneducated person, that's for sure. The educated, even when certain, don't speak in certainty.

 

[BHarwana]

You have the confidence of an uneducated person, that's for sure. The educated, even when certain, don't speak in certainty.

This whole forum is full of confidence and talk claims. I am a humble poor man who knows nothing about economy just few news I read. Yes the economic debate I share is just news and nothing else. I only give real news.

 

[Nilgiri]

because there is only inflow of cash from UAE to India

I seem to have completely lost you, sorry.

a) How much does India export and import from UAE? Do you have a basic idea on these numbers and what % imports from India are as % of total imports of UAE (and why thats significant as regards to market presence/sentiment and thus elastic expansion capacity of Indian goods in UAE)?

b) Why would an INR depreciation versus UAE dirham/gulf currencies (pegged to USD) be a bad thing for remittances either (given the flow is one way and large positive w.r.t Indian CAD)? Each dirham/dinar buys more rupees now....what you think the CAD pressure generated from that is (even running with your assertion there is only a complete one way "inflow" for sake of argument)? Please give a modicum of basic thought before you type something.

Me giving @Nilgiri a positive rating doesn't mean I agree with his entire post by the way, I disagree with a few points.

Yes...this is also how I operate when giving thumbs up too. Does not mean I agree with everything being said...as long as some good points are raised.

If you have time and interested, we can discuss here what you disagree with too. Let us maybe see how many people join the discussion though to broaden it.

 

[moweike]

India forex is $400 billion, a figure most countries can only dream of. India weakness is temporary, largely due to strong dollar, high oil price and trade deficit. The last can be reduced if India increases trades with Vietnam and reduces buying stuffs from high priced countries.

“high priced countries” -------This is very funny lol ,You don't have to worry,Indian merchants will import low-priced goods,But Vietnam can't have all the low-priced goods.also,India will still import high-priced goods , Can Vietnam make airplanes? ........Last,More important, Is the transaction currency, If India-Vietnam continues to trade in US dollars, Pointless.

 

[Nilgiri]

If India-Vietnam continues to trade in US dollars, Pointless.

https://www.xe.com/currencycharts/?from=USD&to=VND&view=1Y

VND is pretty much along same trend with USD as INR is. Effectively VND to INR is largely static when using USD as intermediary.

 

[moweike]

https://www.xe.com/currencycharts/?from=USD&to=VND&view=1Y

VND is pretty much along same trend with USD as INR is. Effectively VND to INR is largely static when using USD as intermediary.

your currency doctrine?

 

[BHarwana]

@Nilgiri I have no idea I am the most idiot economic debater here and yes I made the prediction of your currency falling. Now the issue is that in all this time you claimed that all other currencies were falling but in your neighbourhood Pakistan currency stayed stable in all this time of crash for Indian currency and many other remained stable as well so India has an economic problem. Your markets are falling at a rate of 10% per week so kindly tell me what the hell is wrong if every thing is so good in India.

 

[Nilgiri]

your currency doctrine?

Free float with some capital account restrictions.

 

[BHarwana]

You have a fiscal deficit at hand you have a very high chance of debt default and your currency crisis is worsening day by day. Your markets are crashing at an alarming rate. Your RBI intervention is limited in your economy due to debt sword hanging over your head. @Nilgiri please kindly tell me what economic indicator you want me to consider which is playing in favor of India? Thirdly there is an energy crisis which is going to knock your door in November and your inflation is not in control. Seriously nothing is wrong? Lol. Cut the face saving my friend.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1048175971147309056

These economic news from your own media don't agree with what you are saying my friend. They are clearly showing a disaster happening in India.

Modi has held 4 economic meetings in past week and situation is still worsening for your economy. Sorry bro time for propaganda is over sit back relax and wait for dark days of India.

 

[Nilgiri]

Now the issue is that in all this time you claimed that all other currencies were falling

How is it a claim? It is fact. Literally look up Euro, British Pound, Yen, Canadian dollar, Swiss Franc...any other free floating currency versus USD in the time period we are talking now.

yes I made the prediction of your currency falling.

So? Binary results are easy to "predict"....and thus quite baked into the EM fund sentiments last year itself as just one example.

your neighbourhood Pakistan currency stayed stable in all this time of crash for Indian currency

No one that matters interested in comparing a GDDS economy to an SDDS one in the first place (if you know what that is and why that matters).

What is your total market cap again? Then compare it to India per capita....there is your answer...comparing "stability" in a small well (of your own doing) is not all that important to ships in the open sea.

Heck you prefer to build up the depreciation and release it check valve style rather than even dare a free float:

https://www.xe.com/currencycharts/?from=USD&to=PKR&view=1Y

@VCheng

Its all the hallmarks of a low frequency data, low market cap, low investment, low GCF, GDDS regimen (that too for decades now). Bad comparison from the onset to make with your SDDS peer.

Your markets are falling at a rate of 10% per week

So was the rise (about 50% in cpl years) it a bubble before or not? If its a bubble, bursting it a bit to something more sustainable isn't such a bad thing right? Or was it not a bubble and thus now this correction is bad (because it is linked 100% with the underlying floorboard of Indian economy)?

You can't have it both ways. One or the other, tell me which. Both scenarios have their pros and cons and silver linings and potential pitfalls (if you know how stock markets even operate).

But can someone who told me UAE dirham appreciating (on back of USD peg and oil exports) is a bad thing for Indian CAD w.r.t remittance (earned in the same dirham, effectively USD) esp given massive Indian export profile to UAE ....really give me a novel perspective?

Lastly tell me what a 10% fall (correction) actually happened in time-wise (hint: not a week, not by a longshot). Or are you applying some special time compression factor?

https://tradingeconomics.com/india/stock-market

You have a fiscal deficit at hand you have a very high chance of debt default

LOL, coming from the moron who claims depreciating Rupee vs Dirham is bad for remittance flow.

What is the fiscal deficit (forgetting SDDS standard for a while, i.e the quality of the data) compared to Pakistan's as % of GDP? Do the same with CAD. Then do the same for an integral of investment (esp GCF). Then do a market cap integral too actually. Last 5 years, 10 years, 20 years...pick whatever you want.

It is easy to see as to who is approaching IMF for a bailout, and who isnt even increasing interest rates now.

 

[BHarwana]

How is it a claim? It is fact. Literally look up Euro, British Pound, Yen, Canadian dollar, Swiss Franc...any other free floating currency versus USD in the time period we are talking now.



So? Binary results are easy to "predict"....and thus quite baked into the EM fund sentiments last year itself as just one example.



No one that matters interested in comparing a GDDS economy to an SDDS one in the first place (if you know what that is and why that matters).

What is your total market cap again? Then compare it to India per capita....there is your answer...comparing "stability" in a small well (of your own doing) is not all that important to ships in the open sea.

Heck you prefer to build up the depreciation and release it check valve style rather than even dare a free float:

https://www.xe.com/currencycharts/?from=USD&to=PKR&view=1Y

@VCheng

Its all the hallmarks of a low frequency data, low market cap, low investment, low GCF, GDDS regimen (that too for decades now). Bad comparison from the onset to make with your SDDS peer.



So was the rise (about 50% in cpl years) it a bubble before or not? If its a bubble, bursting it a bit to something more sustainable isn't such a bad thing right? Or was it not a bubble and thus now this correction is bad (because it is linked 100% with the underlying floorboard of Indian economy)?

You can't have it both ways. One or the other, tell me which. Both scenarios have their pros and cons and silver linings and potential pitfalls (if you know how stock markets even operate).

But can someone who told me UAE dirham appreciating (on back of USD peg and oil exports) is a bad thing for Indian CAD w.r.t remittance (earned in the same dirham, effectively USD) esp given massive Indian export profile to UAE ....really give me a novel perspective?

Lastly tell me what a 10% fall (correction) actually happened in time-wise (hint: not a week, not by a longshot). Or are you applying some special time compression factor?

https://tradingeconomics.com/india/stock-market

All the currencies you are mentioning have not fallen like yours did and why they are hand full of them rest are all stable and you markets at the rate on which they are falling in 72 days they will hit zero so wake up these articles are at a dustbin value every day is a red day for Indian economy. The market drop rate is now higher than Indian rape rate. Rupee is kissing every day in a nose dive and deficit is increasing with every second your external debt is getting expensive by $2 billion per day. So kindly tell me where is the silver line you are looking for?

https://twitter.com/x/status/1048320793539694594

https://twitter.com/x/status/1048157130660802560

RBI is holding rates because if it let's go there will be no stopping the deficit and worsening economic crisis in India. It is a dooms day bro so please cut your propaganda and raise your voice for your country and economy. Go join your farmers and block the roads of your capital.

See the video below this is an economical protest in your capital they are not there for corruption or religion or race but they are fighting for pure economics.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1047133696564895745

 

[Nilgiri]

Yep lets believe some dullard comparing across GDDS and SDDS norms and not actual people that matter:

https://defence.pk/pdf/threads/indi...w-against-dollar.574773/page-22#post-10798761

Pointing out that fundamentals of the Indian economy were strong, Bauer said the current account deficit (CAD) was widening partly because of oil imports. However, the deficit is “still at a moderate level”.

India’s CAD stood at 2.4 per cent of GDP in the April-June quarter.

“In terms of magnitude, it (CAD) is much better than what it was five years ago. So I think it is time for prudent policies. In general, we do feel that the fundamentals of the Indian economy are strong. This level of current account (deficit) is more or less what we expect for a country like India,” he said.

The real effective exchange rate (REER) — the weighted average of a currency against a basket of other currencies adjusted for inflation — is broadly within the fundamentals and fluctuations are “in line”.

https://defence.pk/pdf/threads/indi...w-against-dollar.574773/page-22#post-10804155

He refused to read the recent fall of the rupee as a reflection of poor economic management calling it an “unfortunate consequence” of external factors. “The rupee trades on account of what the dollar is doing and not on account of what the rupee is doing right now."

RBI is holding rates because if it let's go there will be no stopping the deficit and worsening economic crisis in India.

LOL, that is such facepalm. You literally have everything reversed (not surprising actually given what you have said 3 times already like a broken record unable to do basic critical thinking).

A rate hike would mop up liquidity, not create more (what you are asserting in deficits, be it fiscal or CAD) lol. Less supply of Rupee would then create an exchange rate gain for it (fewer rupees chasing same amount of dollars as compared to before). It would be a heavy handed lever intervention given it would likely create a structural demand compression...and thus the fact RBI is foregoing it clearly shows fundamentals are fine.

But you can wait and see how your "dark day gloom...oooooooh" "prediction" (if it can even be called that) turns out for yourself lol.

Pakistan is approaching 6 % of GDP C.A deficit (compared to around 2.4% for India)....and has about 5.4% of GDP for fiscal deficit (compared to 3.6% for India)

Latest economist appendix:

Then factor in respective credit ratings (pakistan = junk grade unlike India), total accumulated investment (FDI , GCF, savings, forex you name it), market cap, total wealth etc etc (per capita too)..... and you literally have to apply 3 ,4 , 5+ times the gloom and doom to Pakistan first before approaching India with it. Will you?

 

[BHarwana]

@Nilgiri so your rupee and markets are falling because of aliens and there is nothing wrong with Indian economy lol. Your economic noobness is visible with the fact that you are trying to divert the discussion to Pakistan in a talk on Indian economy lol. You are nothing but propaganda. Every morning Indian Rupee falls and this has continued for past 2 months I cannot remember a single days this has not happened and for past 2 weeks Indian stock markets have joined the rupee. Every day oil prices rise in India and every day there are economic protests on Indian streets. What else do you call an economic crisis bro. Start smoking weed or find some pills of sedatives they might help you because pic is different from what you want it to be.

Just today investors lost $1.2 billion in market and they have been doing this for past 2 weeks every day.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1048173175463268352

https://twitter.com/x/status/1048171031632994304

https://twitter.com/x/status/635762244727377924

Sorry bablu your economics is not supporting you actual markets and currency.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1048051129802735617

 

[Type59]

Modi government has been consistently lying on Gdp figures and other issues. Demonetisation was a stupid idea and always will be. The people running India are idiots.

 

[Nilgiri]

@Nilgiri so your rupee and markets are falling because of aliens and there is nothing wrong with Indian economy lol. Your economic noobness is visible with the fact that you are trying to divert the discussion to Pakistan in a talk on Indian economy lol. You are nothing but propaganda. Every morning Indian Rupee falls and this has continued for past 2 months I cannot remember a single days this has not happened and for past 2 weeks Indian stock markets have joined the rupee. Every day oil prices rise in India and every day there are economic protests on Indian streets. What else do you call an economic crisis bro. Start smoking weed or find some pills of sedatives they might help you because pic is different from what you want it to be.

Just today investors lost $1.2 billion in market and they have been doing this for past 2 weeks every day.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1048173175463268352

https://twitter.com/x/status/1048171031632994304

https://twitter.com/x/status/635762244727377924

Sorry bablu your economics is not supporting you actual markets and currency.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1048051129802735617

Calm down lol, we can all watch reality right?

Fitch ups India's growth forecast to 7.8% for FY19

https://economictimes.indiatimes.co...cast-to-7-8-for-fy19/articleshow/65901669.cms

(Do you know what Fitch credit rating and outlook is for Pakistan btw? )

I have wasted enough time discussing with you, I will now wait for someone else (hopefully lot smarter and well informed) to continue the discussion and debate.

If anyone wants actual balanced (both sides debate) on the issue at hand right now, ppl can watch this and I will answer any more queries from them.: