Indian Rafale Deal Final By September. Any Breaths Held?

[Anony]

I think ur mistaking that entire fleet can be converted to 5th gen so quickly..5th gen is brutally costly.Even usa can't replace its whole fleet with 5th gen and has been stalling...

I am not mistaken by any way. In my post, I have clearly stated how LCA, Sukhoi, Mig-29 will/should be used post 2030. Neither I am talking about replacing the entire squadron by only 5th gen fighters. You have totally neglected the entire logic.
Cost:
As per cost 126 Rafales for $20 billion which is equivalent to $160 million per plane will be on par or more costly than 5th gen fighters. Add to that upgradation cost Rafale will become more costly.

huge numbers of 5th gen will appear post 2030 only.Till then rafale would have served us very well for 10 yrs and will still be viable as a ground attack craft.

Exactly what I am saying that we can use Rafale as upper-hand compared to other fighters in the region only till 2030. After that Rafale will become obsolete or will be on verge of getting obsolete whereas the last 2-3 batches of Rafale will enter service post 2025 or some similar time frame. So we will induct a $160 million per plane toys to declare that it is obsolete.

If we don't get rafale in meantime our sq strength goes down to 25 which will leave us wide open to total compromise in a war with plaaf if paf even mounts any pressure on the west by posturing.We can't go under 30 squadrons..ever.

I don't mind a deal for 2 squadron of Rafale but 126 fighters(this costly) is total waste of money. And moreover if we will cancel Rafale order it is not that we will not order anything. Order additional Su-30mki and LCA. Su-30mki will be able to carry Brahmos under it wings which Rafale can never. Add AESA on the nose of Su-30mki.

All the fighters of IAF in today's date (excluding Mig-21) can perform ground attack role. And there are many pandits who keep howling for fighters for only ground attack role only and try to show it's importance. But the truth is that, with the invent of smart bombs, Laser guided bomb, etc any fighter with little modification can perform ground attack role. And things will get better with the days to come. More smart bombs/precision guided bomb will come into picture.

 

[AUSTERLITZ]

I am not mistaken by any way. In my post, I have clearly stated how LCA, Sukhoi, Mig-29 will/should be used post 2030. Neither I am talking about replacing the entire squadron by only 5th gen fighters. You have totally neglected the entire logic.
Cost:
As per cost 126 Rafales for $20 billion which is equivalent to $160 million per plane will be on par or more costly than 5th gen fighters. Add to that upgradation cost Rafale will become more costly.



Exactly what I am saying that we can use Rafale as upper-hand compared to other fighters in the region only till 2030. After that Rafale will become obsolete or will be on verge of getting obsolete whereas the last 2-3 batches of Rafale will enter service post 2025 or some similar time frame. So we will induct a $160 million per plane toys to declare that it is obsolete.



I don't mind a deal for 2 squadron of Rafale but 126 fighters(this costly) is total waste of money. And moreover if we will cancel Rafale order it is not that we will not order anything. Order additional Su-30mki and LCA. Su-30mki will be able to carry Brahmos under it wings which Rafale can never. Add AESA on the nose of Su-30mki.

All the fighters of IAF in today's date (excluding Mig-21) can perform ground attack role. And there are many pandits who keep howling for fighters for only ground attack role only and try to show it's importance. But the truth is that, with the invent of smart bombs, Laser guided bomb, etc any fighter with little modification can perform ground attack role. And things will get better with the days to come. More smart bombs/precision guided bomb will come into picture.

First IAF has already said it doesn't need more heavy fighters or sukhois and su-30 costs 100 million these days.Also they have big RCS and will have trouble in ground attack precision role.LCA induction rate is abysmal.Thing is u criticize but don't offer alternatives.If we don't get rafale we will be stuck till 2025 with no new fighters coming save a trickle of lcas.

By ground attack role i mean SEAD.DEAD, deep penetration - these may be required to penetrate chinese s-300s in tibet and hit their supply lines.

 

[Anony]

First IAF has already said it doesn't need more heavy fighters or sukhois and su-30 costs 100 million these days.Also they have big RCS and will have trouble in ground attack precision role.LCA induction rate is abysmal.Thing is u criticize but don't offer alternatives.If we don't get rafale we will be stuck till 2025 with no new fighters coming save a trickle of lcas.

By ground attack role i mean SEAD.DEAD, deep penetration - these may be required to penetrate chinese s-300s in tibet and hit their supply lines.

Heavy and light is only categorize by IAF, question is of fulfilling the needs. Rafale with full load will have RCS close to range of 3-5 sqm. This is a very big value to get track by today's date radar. I agree modern Su-30mki will also have RCS of 8 sqm but it will not stand that relevant. How far you think can Rafale enter in such a heavily protected air defence system. I bet you don't count on refueling, as the airbus used for refueling will be in danger in such case. It's combat radius will be of 600-700 km when fully loaded. Don't go on marketed specs but work out the fuel fraction. Beyond that will be the work of missiles. su-30mki can perform these roles. As for 2025 timeline, only 2-3 squadron can get operational by then and I have already mentioned here that I don't mind 2 squadron of Rafale in IAF service to fulfill the void.

 

[AUSTERLITZ]

Heavy and light is only categorize by IAF, question is of fulfilling the needs. Rafale with full load will have RCS close to range of 3-5 sqm. This is a very big value to get track by today's date radar. I agree modern Su-30mki will also have RCS of 8 sqm but it will not stand that relevant. How far you think can Rafale enter in such a heavily protected air defence system. I bet you don't count on refueling, as the airbus used for refueling will be in danger in such case. It's combat radius will be of 600-700 km when fully loaded. Don't go on marketed specs but work out the fuel fraction. Beyond that will be the work of missiles. su-30mki can perform these roles. As for 2025 timeline, only 2-3 squadron can get operational by then and I have already mentioned here that I don't mind 2 squadron of Rafale in IAF service to fulfill the void.

Rafale's SPECTRA is extremely effective against enemy air defence,in NATO exercises it was the only aircraft to fool s-300 and penetrate.And su-30mki with full load will have 15 sqm RCS-thats enormous.Also rafale with meteor is better than sukhoi in A to A role.600-700 km is more than enough to strike road/highway/airbase targets in tibet in case of war.Remember china has s-300 and su-30 large rcs would make it difficult for it to penetrate the air defence without losses.
Again what is the alternative?pakfa isn't coming before 2025 in squadron strength.
Do we just wait for 11 years adding nothing but a mere trickle of lcas?Even new sukhois cost 100 million plus and IAF already have enough.2 sq of rafale is not cost effective due to setting up infrastructure ,nor will it fill the void-we will still be down to less than 30 sq.

 

[sancho]

Rafale's SPECTRA is extremely effective against enemy air defence,in NATO exercises it was the only aircraft to fool s-300 and penetrate.And su-30mki with full load will have 15 sqm RCS-thats enormous.Also rafale with meteor is better than sukhoi in A to A role.600-700 km is more than enough to strike road/highway/airbase targets in tibet in case of war.Remember china has s-300 and su-30 large rcs would make it difficult for it to penetrate the air defence without losses.
Again what is the alternative?pakfa isn't coming before 2025 in squadron strength.
Do we just wait for 11 years adding nothing but a mere trickle of lcas?Even new sukhois cost 100 million plus and IAF already have enough.2 sq of rafale is not cost effective due to setting up infrastructure ,nor will it fill the void-we will still be down to less than 30 sq.

The crucial point that many miss is, the ratio between capability of the fighter and the operational costs. Be it the MKI or the coming FGFA, both will be heavy class fighters, which adds far higher operational costs than a medium class fighter. This is even more true for Russian made fighters, that by tradition have higher costs in this area and even more so for 5th gen fighter, when a western, single engine, medium class F35 has around 1.5 times the operational costs of an F18 Hornet, what will be the cost difference between FGFA and the medium class fighters IAF will replace? At the same time, Rafales cost are down to a similar level as Mirage 2000s,so purely from the operational point of view, Rafale will add a broad base of capability to IAF and reasonable operational costs compared to other top end fighters in the fleet. The LCA doesn't play any role in this regard, since it can't be compared against Rafale, or MKI on a 1 on 1 basis. You simply would need numerous LCAs to cover the same capability and roles that a single Rafale or MKI offers.

 

[Anony]

Rafale's SPECTRA is extremely effective against enemy air defence,in NATO exercises it was the only aircraft to fool s-300 and penetrate.And su-30mki with full load will have 15 sqm RCS-thats enormous.Also rafale with meteor is better than sukhoi in A to A role.600-700 km is more than enough to strike road/highway/airbase targets in tibet in case of war.Remember china has s-300 and su-30 large rcs would make it difficult for it to penetrate the air defence without losses.
Again what is the alternative?pakfa isn't coming before 2025 in squadron strength.
Do we just wait for 11 years adding nothing but a mere trickle of lcas?Even new sukhois cost 100 million plus and IAF already have enough.2 sq of rafale is not cost effective due to setting up infrastructure ,nor will it fill the void-we will still be down to less than 30 sq.

First of all where did you find that 15 sqm figure. That was the expected RCS value of basic Su-27 and not of Su-30mki and not of the one we produce today with increase composite content and will never be even close to the one which we will produce after 5 years.

Secondly, Meteor can be bought of the shelf and stand irrelevant in this discussion.

Thirdly, spending IAF's 5-6 years budget (allocated for purchasing arms) for a project which stand relevant only for next 10-15 years is foolishness.

Fourthly, Spectra hopefully will not stand relevant post 2025. This is nothing new, we all know technology changes.

Fifthly, IAF don't have money today to pay for C-130j and if we keep wasting money, IAF will not be able to pay for it's other purchases.

Sixthly, HAL can increase production capacity if the order is big but no company in the world will set up a big facility for 40 fighters

Seventhly, we eventually will have to wait till 2019-2020 for the first Rafale squadron. 4 years for first squadron from 2015 is 2019 and if it is delayed then 2020. There on instead on producing 8 Rafales in a year, we can go on to produce 24 LCA. 16 fighters per year is planned, with increase order production can ramp up to 24 fighters a year.

Eigthly, the transfer of critical technology coming with this project is minimal. As per Rafale total transfer of Technology will only happen by the time the last Rafale rolls out i.e. by 2030 or similar timeline. Just impossible to accept.(If there are any recent updates on this matter, I am not aware of it)

 

[AUSTERLITZ]

First of all where did you find that 15 sqm figure. That was the expected RCS value of basic Su-27 and not of Su-30mki and not of the one we produce today with increase composite content and will never be even close to the one which we will produce after 5 years.

Secondly, Meteor can be bought of the shelf and stand irrelevant in this discussion.

Thirdly, spending IAF's 5-6 years budget (allocated for purchasing arms) for a project which stand relevant only for next 10-15 years is foolishness.

Fourthly, Spectra hopefully will not stand relevant post 2025. This is nothing new, we all know technology changes.

Fifthly, IAF don't have money today to pay for C-130j and if we keep wasting money, IAF will not be able to pay for it's other purchases.

Sixthly, HAL can increase production capacity if the order is big but no company in the world will set up a big facility for 40 fighters

Seventhly, we eventually will have to wait till 2019-2020 for the first Rafale squadron. 4 years for first squadron from 2015 is 2019 and if it is delayed then 2020. There on instead on producing 8 Rafales in a year, we can go on to produce 24 LCA. 16 fighters per year is planned, with increase order production can ramp up to 24 fighters a year.

Eigthly, the transfer of critical technology coming with this project is minimal. As per Rafale total transfer of Technology will only happen by the time the last Rafale rolls out i.e. by 2030 or similar timeline. Just impossible to accept.(If there are any recent updates on this matter, I am not aware of it)

That was the RCS with full load,remember su-30 mki has canards which increase RCS.Maybe be super sukhoi will have much reduced RCS but su-30 mki still has big big RCS 10-15 sqm at the least with load.

It is better than the alternative of being near defenceless for over a decade.

Rafale too will be upgraded and spectra's data fusion is second only to raptor's.So no its not going to become obsolete 2025.

IAF's main job is to defend the skies,and if sq strength falls below a certain level it can't do that.C-130 would be useless if air superiority over our own territory is not guaranteed.

As i said the gains of procuring new 100 million plus su-30s is increasingly smaller.

Not really if we sign this year,first batch of 18 will arrive by late 2017.

By 2030-our mig-29s are done,mirages are done,all older migs are done,jaguars are done....only sukhois will remain and increasingly vulnerable.And lCAmk2/3 as low end option in pak front.Pak fas only just arriving in numbers.Rafales will remain very very relevant to india's scenario.If we don't take it we will be left with just sukhois and lcas.

 

[sancho]

Fourthly, Spectra hopefully will not stand relevant post 2025. This is nothing new, we all know technology changes.

You clearly have no idea what you are talking about. SPECTRA is already ahead of most comparable EWS in comparable generation fighters and constantly will be upgraded. The latest US 5th gen fighters have or will get similar capabilities and the next set of upgrades with upgraded IR MAWS, GaN jammers, active EM decoys and most likely DIRCMs will keep it viable at the same level as the EWS of these fighters, the only difference is, that SPECTRA is not installed on a stealth fighter.

 

[Anony]

That was the RCS with full load,remember su-30 mki has canards which increase RCS.Maybe be super sukhoi will have much reduced RCS but su-30 mki still has big big RCS 10-15 sqm at the least with load.

It is better than the alternative of being near defenceless for over a decade.

Rafale too will be upgraded and spectra's data fusion is second only to raptor's.So no its not going to become obsolete 2025.

IAF's main job is to defend the skies,and if sq strength falls below a certain level it can't do that.C-130 would be useless if air superiority over our own territory is not guaranteed.

As i said the gains of procuring new 100 million plus su-30s is increasingly smaller.

Not really if we sign this year,first batch of 18 will arrive by late 2017.

By 2030-our mig-29s are done,mirages are done,all older migs are done,jaguars are done....only sukhois will remain and increasingly vulnerable.And lCAmk2/3 as low end option in pak front.Pak fas only just arriving in numbers.Rafales will remain very very relevant to india's scenario.If we don't take it we will be left with just sukhois and lcas.

Again it's super sukhoi which cost $100million and not Su-30mki. So in first place when you termed $100million, I assumed you are talking about Super Sukhoi and thus I presented you with the logic for the RCS figure of Super Sukhoi.

If you are talking about up-gradation, just check the how much Mirage 2000 upgrades of yesteryear fighter costs. Any updates on Rafale will become as the price of each unit.

Then we can't sign a deal today. Signing deal takes time. So even if we go in full swing it will be last month of 2014 or early 2015. Recently, there was a news of delivering the first 18 in three years but it is simply a marketing strategy and I will keep that 4 years figure which is there on the contract and not some verbal words of an officer which makes the schedule date of 2019.

Defenceless as you say will be the time between 2019-2025, which is six years. How much defence power 2 extra squadron of Rafale will provide us. India along with Russia is working on a 5th gen fighter and by 2025 they will also come up something close to Spectra for sure.


And for other members those were questioning about operational cost, firstly we have no idea about operational cost of Rafale. So simply saying it will be close to the level of Mirage 2000 is not accepted though I agree it will be lesser than Su-30mki. But I am talking of replacing Rafale with combination of LCA and Sukhoi. Though operational cost of Sukhoi is more than Rafale but operational cost of LCA will be lesser than Rafale. So on average it will balance out the equation more or less.

Also we don't wanna compare fighters 1 on 1 basis but try and analyze whether their combination can fill in the requirement and threat perception. And here combination of LCA and Sukhoi can fill in the role defined or role to be played by Rafale more or less.

And I have very good idea of Spectra and is not doubting its capability by the difference of a thinnest line ever drawn or could be drawn. But I am only telling that technology keeps evolving and by 2025 with Russians for our own 5th gen fighter , we will be able to develop something similar more or less. And when we are talking about upgradation we are talking about additional $$$ and we must know how much we need to pay then from what we are paying for upgrading Mirage 2000

 

[AUSTERLITZ]

Again it's super sukhoi which cost $100million and not Su-30mki. So in first place when you termed $100million, I assumed you are talking about Super Sukhoi and thus I presented you with the logic for the RCS figure of Super Sukhoi.

If you are talking about up-gradation, just check the how much Mirage 2000 upgrades of yesteryear fighter costs. Any updates on Rafale will become as the price of each unit.

Then we can't sign a deal today. Signing deal takes time. So even if we go in full swing it will be last month of 2014 or early 2015. Recently, there was a news of delivering the first 18 in three years but it is simply a marketing strategy and I will keep that 4 years figure which is there on the contract and not some verbal words of an officer which makes the schedule date of 2019.

Defenceless as you say will be the time between 2019-2025, which is six years. How much defence power 2 extra squadron of Rafale will provide us. India along with Russia is working on a 5th gen fighter and by 2025 they will also come up something close to Spectra for sure.


And for other members those were questioning about operational cost, firstly we have no idea about operational cost of Rafale. So simply saying it will be close to the level of Mirage 2000 is not accepted though I agree it will be lesser than Su-30mki. But I am talking of replacing Rafale with combination of LCA and Sukhoi. Though operational cost of Sukhoi is more than Rafale but operational cost of LCA will be lesser than Rafale. So on average it will balance out the equation more or less.

Also we don't wanna compare fighters 1 on 1 basis but try and analyze whether their combination can fill in the requirement and threat perception. And here combination of LCA and Sukhoi can fill in the role defined or role to be played by Rafale more or less.

Ok,thnx for clarification on first.

Second news is we can sign deal by sept-october.3 years is normal delivery date..especially because rafale is in serial production for french air force..there is no starting up production seperately needed.

Yes from around 2018 when migs are gone to around late 2020s when pak fas are still coming in our sq strength will hit rock bottom unless substantial numbers of new birds are not taken in.I have less faith in russian electronics but even if they do by the time that tech comes to us will be 2030 odd.
LCA HAL'S production is very slow and we can't use LCA in chinese front..so getting more than a certain number will be waste.On sukhoi Our own production line at HAL for 272 jets is lagging till 2019.And despite signing deal 40 super sukhoi-even first one is nowhere to be seen from russia.So we are not going to get new sukhoi jets quick enough before 2019 till this backlog of orders is cleared.Also rafale as with mirage will have better serviceability rates than any russian fighter.

 

[sancho]

firstly we have no idea about operational cost of Rafale. So simply saying it will be close to the level of Mirage 2000 is not accepted though I agree it will be lesser than Su-30mki.

Actually we do know:

Dassault Rafale, tender | News & Discussions | Page 636

But I am only telling that technology keeps evolving

And assume that SPECTRA would be limited to the technical capability of today, but it clearly isn't and that's why it remains to be one of the most advanced EW systems even in 2025.

 

[Anony]

Ok,thnx for clarification on first.

Second news is we can sign deal by sept-october.3 years is normal delivery date..especially because rafale is in serial production for french air force..there is no starting up production seperately needed.

I too have heard of these news. Still doubt and even if it happen 1 quarter or 3 months will and should not make any difference in discussion or IAF's operational capability.

Yes from around 2018 when migs are gone to around late 2020s when pak fas are still coming in our sq strength will hit rock bottom unless substantial numbers of new birds are not taken in.I have less faith in russian electronics but even if they do by the time that tech comes to us will be 2030 odd.
LCA HAL'S production is very slow and we can't use LCA in chinese front..so getting more than a certain number will be waste.On sukhoi Our own production line at HAL for 272 jets is lagging till 2019.And despite signing deal 40 super sukhoi-even first one is nowhere to be seen from russia.So we are not going to get new sukhoi jets quick enough before 2019 till this backlog of orders is cleared.Also rafale as with mirage will have better serviceability rates than any russian fighter.

The only difference if we sign this Rafale deal and if we don't sign this deal from quantity perspective is one additional Rafale squadron by 2019 and one more by 2024 and to keep it intact 40 addtional Rafale by 2025.

My Suggestion:

Order 2 squadron of the fighter and buy the critical technology if possible.

Order additional Super Sukhoi and LCA and order Sukhoi produced straight from Russian manufacturing unit. HAL can increase the production capacity of LCA.

LCA's production capacity is slow because order is less and money is not released from IAF and government for setting it up but for if we use money allocated to set up production capacity of LCA, we can easily increase the annual figure way more than we can think.

HAL will take 3-4 years to set up Rafale's production facility and another few years to increase that figure whereas for LCA, everything is planne and can be done quickly.

Actually we do know:


Mirage 2000 - € 8672 ($11896)
Rafale B/C - € 9484 ($13010)
Should be very interesting for IAF to compare these figures.

https://defence.pk/threads/dassault-rafale-tender-news-discussions.4347/page-636#post-5682252

Firstly, it was assessed way back in 2004. Compare the changes in the fighter since then. Then compare the increase in inflation. Then compare that Mirage 2000 is reaching the end of its life whereas Rafale is just starting, thus Mirage 2000 with highest operational cost compared to lowest operational cost of Rafale and that too assessed and that too with additional comparison.

And assume that SPECTRA would be limited to the technical capability of today, but it clearly isn't and that's why it remains to be one of the most advanced EW systems even in 2025.

No I am not assuming that Spectra would be limited to the technical capability of today, but only assuming that France will not keep updating our Rafale with every new version evolve unlike their Rafale and that we will have to pay hefty. Moreover I am not bothered whether in 2025 we will have something better than Spectra or worse than Spectra but I only want we to have something better than our adversaries and which I am confident that Russia and India together can easily make such a system.

 

[sancho]

My Suggestion:

Order 2 squadron of the fighter and buy the critical technology if possible.

Order additional Super Sukhoi and LCA and order Sukhoi produced straight from Russian manufacturing unit. HAL can increase the production capacity of LCA.

LCA's production capacity is slow because order is less

Ordering just 2 squadrons will increase the unit cost, will add a new type of fighter in very low numbers (which IAF don't want) and won't get us neither the production line nor any techs (which is the core of the whole MMRCA competition)!

Additional MKIs, no matter on what technical level, will make IAF more dependent on Russia and their weapons (which IAF reportedly don't want either) and LCA orders are low so far, because the MK1 does not fit to IAF requirements, which is why they want higher numbers of MK2.

=> Your suggestion is completelly against what IAF actually wants, let alone against the benefits the government aims on for our industry. It would increase the costs, be it the procurement or the operational costs, while not making IAF operationally more capable either (since you need more fighters to cover what less Rafales could do). So that doesn't work!

 

[Anony]

Ordering just 2 squadrons will increase the unit cost, will add a new type of fighter in very low numbers (which IAF don't want) and won't get us neither the production line nor any techs (which is the core of the whole MMRCA competition)!

Additional MKIs, no matter on what technical level, will make IAF more dependent on Russia and their weapons (which IAF reportedly don't want either) and LCA orders are low so far, because the MK1 does not fit to IAF requirements, which is why they want higher numbers of MK2.

=> Your suggestion is completelly against what IAF actually wants, let alone against the benefits the government aims on for our industry. It would increase the costs, be it the procurement or the operational costs, while not making IAF operationally more capable either (since you need more fighters to cover what less Rafales could do). So that doesn't work!

IAF will anyway be dependent on Russia for most its needs post 2030 and post 2035 as well. Remember FGFA will be actually 75% Russian and 25% Indian. Only cost is equally divided. And just not to be over dependent on Russian, I can't support some deal which will surely going to kick us back in a decade and half from now.

 

[sancho]

Firstly, it was assessed way back in 2004. Compare the changes in the fighter since then.

Please check the link again, the info shows the difference of the latest costs, compared to the once in 2004, which where far higher. The figure today shows, that Rafales cost are indeed down to Mirage 2000 levels.

but only assuming that France will not keep updating our Rafale with every new version evolve unlike their Rafale

That doesn't make sense, first of all because it's not France who keeps updating "our" Rafales, nor are they deciding about the level of the upgrade that we want and the same is the case for Russian fighters (we constantly upgrade Migs and Flankers with more EW capability than the standard Russian Migs or Flankers). The fact however is, that the French will keep the Rafale in operations for at least the next 30 years, which means upgrades for this timeframe is pretty save and it's on us to take that upgrade, up or downgrade it for the required costs.

Moreover I am not bothered whether in 2025 we will have something better than Spectra or worse than Spectra but I only want we to have something better than our adversaries and which I am confident that Russia and India together can easily make such a system.

Russia is developing new EWs for their latest fighters, with similar capabilities that SPECTRA is offering for nearly a decade now, but still are not on par in this field to western counterparts. That's why we (or every customer of their fighter that have access to better techs) customize the fighters. Why do you think the upgraded MKIs or the future FGFA will get a mix of Indo-Israeli EW, rather than simply taking what the Russian offer?

IAF will anyway be dependent on Russia for most its needs

That doesn't mean they need to be overdependent, but actually shows why they want to diversify on capability and costs!