DARMASHKIAN's EXIT POLL FOR BIHAR:-
This election has been very.very interesting, full of suspense, thriller,comedy,horror,action & drama like a good Telugu/Tamil/Hindi film
Two arch-rivals united with one sidekick who WAS the big boss at Delhi(but a side-kick in Bihar) to take on
a Party headed by the Man(Also known as a Singham) who IS the Big boss at Delhi & the biggest threat to the aforementioned + many small chamchas.
There are 243 seats in the Assembly & 122 is needed for a majority.
This elections was a pollster's nightmare, that is certain. The coming together of 2 arch-rivals, the rise & kicking out & then the martyrisation of Manjhi among Mahadalits. The Modi wave, good-will for Nitish, hatred of Lalu or fear of reservation being taken away due to Mohan Bhagwat's statement were truly some major factors which made this election more & more confusing.
Thus there is no unanimous opinion on any side- Some pollsters believe that MGB will win, some say NDA. Some say ___Will win with a huge majority, other say- NO___ will win with a small lead while a third guy comes & calls both of them paid & says it will be a hung assembly.
Some pollster have been very brave like VDP associates whose first election this is & have called out a majority for the NDA or cautious like C-voter whose seat range for all parties is such he can claim victory if the assembly is either hung or NDA or MGB win with a slight majority.
As you all know the past results & trends during the LS I won't elaborate much on them due to lack of time.
Due to lack of time, I will be unable to give a more detailed & sophisticated analysis or a phase by phase analysis, I hope you all will understand this & bear through this analysis. I also hope that all of you will give constructive feedback on my poll & how I can make myself a better psephologist & a better understander of the ground situation.
Now about me:-
I would like to mention that I am still quite a teenager & live in Hyderabad,Telangana & have a great interest in politics,current affairs, international affairs & am still updating my defense knowledge. I have done my best to be neutral & unbiased when it comes to this analysis & I have done my best to keep my anger + my ideological bias out of this analysis. I would also like to add that I have something to gain & loss regardless of either side wins.
Now let us start with the analysis
First I would like to say--- THE NDA WILL WIN BIHAR! MGB despite all it's hardwork will lose.
Starting with the numbers:-
1)NDA:- 130-135 Total Vote-Share:44%
BJP:- 106-110
LJP:- 10-15
HAM:- 10-15
RLSP:-1-3 (Though zero could be a possibility )
2)MGB:-103-108 Total Vote-Share:- 43%
JDU:- 60-66
RJD:- 33-39
Cong:- 7-10
3)Others:- 6-10 Total Vote-Share:- 13%
Now let me give one small funda:-
IF Bihar votes on caste lines,MGB will definitely win with a good margin(& Bihar will be hurt). BUT if Bihari youth & women & those who still shudder at the thoughts of jungle raj cross the Kosi (am going "swadeshi") & vote outside caste lines, then BJP will win.
The Analysis below is the sum observation of tweets,articles,points I have read on this forum,discussions & debates with other people, caste statistics & most importantly- logic & common sense.
Yes, I admit I could be wrong.(& there is a very high chance I will be). But this is the 2nd analysis of an election I have done after LS-2014. So please bear with me if you felt this analysis was wrong & I apologise if I wasted your precious time & you didn't find it worth reading this.
NOW
Let the Analysis begin:-
- 1)There IS a Modi wave period, his strong talk on national security, his being an EBC & the huge packages to Bihar have helped the BJP. Tthe talk of vikas, development & creating jobs has helped a lot especially among youth
- 2)There IS also Good will for Nitish as CM which will help the JDU & perhaps even the Congress. BUT as much of that good will was for cleaning up Lalu's mess, little chance it will help the RJD
The above points have made the poll very confusing & thus confused many pollsters & even the people especially in BJP vs JDU fights.
- 3)Muslim-Yadav-Kurmi Votebanks of RJD & JDU more or less transferred their votes to each other & so was the case for some OBCs, the tantrik abusing Lalu may have not had that much of an effect. But the Mahadalit & EBC votebanks didn't exactly shift to the RJD.
- 4)Congress' lack of organisation & infra. will make sure it won't do well, even if it does well it will only be because of the 12 seats it received in Seemanchal.
- 5)EBCs & Maha-Dalits are still not fond of Lalu's jungle raj. They must have voted for the NDA in good no.s
- 6)SCs & UCs consolidated towards the NDA because of BJP,HAM,LJP & Lalu.
- 7)Mohan Bhagwat's reservation statement has indeed harmed the NDA a LOT. It convinced many EBCs & OBCs to turn to the MGB to save " reservation". NiKu & Lalu's fear mongering didn't help either.
- 8)Muslim vote consolidation towards the MGB was the largest consolidation of any community/caste in Bihar. No chance of even youth voting for the BJP.
- 9)Some Yadav youngsters may have voted for the BJP in good numbers because of point-1
- 10)Some Bhumihars & Rajputs voted for the MGB because of some local chieftains in the JDU & RJD respectively. Also in some cases ofBJP ally vs JDU, the JDU candidate received more UC votes than average (compared to the other MGB candidate)
- 11)But most UCs didn't vote for the MGB cause of Lalu & his forward vs backward talk.
- 12)Many don't know this, but a rally organised by some Nishad(EBC caste) organisations was brutally dealt with by the police a few weeks back. This WILL hurt the MGB (am also taking into consideration the rise of a new Nishad youth who went to Mumbai & made his fortune & is now with the BJP).
- 13)Koeris voted for the MGB but in slightly lesser numbers than the Kurmis.
- 13)HAM was a booster among Maha-Dalits
- 14)RLSP was not very useful, He could't get most of his community behind him . I feel that 45% Kushwahas will vote for the MGB, 43% for the BJP & the rest- other
- 15)The third front & the MIM have hurt the chances of mostly the MGB.
- 16)Infighting & nepotism have hurt the chances of the BJP in about 15 seats. I said this about 2 weeks back @jha ji just confirmed this.
- 17)Phases3 & 4 were of the BJP; while Phase 5 was for the MGB. The others were quite close if you ask me.
- 18)Most Migrant voters especially from BJP majority states must have voted for the BJP in good nos. Add to that this being festival time thus they must have come home.
19)NDA had the advantage in karyakartas due to their larger cadre compared to the MGB. Add to that the RSS cadre coming in too.
Both sides have worked REALLY hard & have given their best:- Prashant Kishore, Modi, Amit Shah,Nitish,Lalu etc BJP made many mistakes, but in the end the Modi wave won the BJP election.
I repeat what I said, the MGB was an unsustainable & highly volatile combination. Had it worked it could have worked brilliantly, but it also had the capacity to screw up heavily.
About the Post-Poll scenario:-
Prashant Kishore's fate depends upon how the MGB & more importantly the JDU does.
MGB will lose a lot of leaders to the NDA if it loses. Many from the JDU will target & blame NiKu's ego for this debacle.
If JDU gets more seats than the RJD & NiKu continues to remain an opportunist. Then we could see the end of the RJD faster than we normally should have with Lalu going back to jail.
Also JDU will only be 5 years out of power, RJD will be 15 years out of power, that will further ensure the end of the RJD.
Bihar's new CM MAY be Sushil Modi, underdogs include Nand Kishore Yadav & Prem Kumar(EBC leader). Modi-Shah will be delighted, the BJP will be filled with elan &joy. The opposition will be horrified & fall into depression. This election could further hasten the end of the Congress!!
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P.S:- Going by Chanakya's, Janata ka Mode & NDTV- Hansa's combined numbers & verdicts, I feel BJP could win & even a pull a surprise in Phase-5. But the results of CSDS post poll which says MGB could win confuse me.
Let me say that CSDS usually gets it right when it comes to North India, they got Bihar right the last 2 times too.
ANDDD...That's it, due to time constraints I can't elaborate more or explain more. I still feel I could have explained more & written long para.s Please give your feedback & constructive opinion on this analysis.
@ranjeet:- Thanks bhai.
But sorry I don't like daaru & don't drink it, so no daru party is possible.
My apologies
@skyisthelimit :- Thanks mate
@Star Wars - My point was Chanakyas got the verdict right, but they overshot the BJPs nos.By the way it was really nice & challenging discussing this election with you all this while.
@saurav @Spectre @Nair saab @Marxist @Tridibans @nair @SrNair @itachii @SarthakGanguly Please have a look & give your feedback.
BJP supporters & Lalu haters, here's a song of celebration for you
