jbond197
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240 to 260 is for BJP. NDA 280 to 320. This is as per 543..
Indian Political Corner | All Updates & Discussions.
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240 to 260 is for BJP. NDA 280 to 320. This is as per 543..
paranoiarocks
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'thats based on 'swing' methodology , graph i posted was for seats done so far .
Ok Here are Tweets from Bihar Journo (sums up Bihar equation)
@jha @arp2041 @Jason bourne @Android @anathema @jbond197
17- मैंने एनडीए 25,यूपीए 15 की बात कही थी। कायम हूं। एक-दो सीट के फेरबदल की चांस हमेशा बनी रहती है। और मुझे इसके लिए कोई पैसे नहीं मिले हैं
16-अंत में कई सीटों पर अंतिमबॉल पर फैसले वाली सीन है। अत: अपने स्टैंड पर कायम,लेकिन परिणाम बदले तोहैरान नहीं हूंगा,हार स्वीकार कर लूंगा
15-ए-बेहतर कैडर बी-मोदी के पीएम बनने के चांस सी-पटनाब्लास्ट ने मोदी को अडवांटेज दिया और वे लालू से थोड़ आगे नजर आ रहे हैं
14- इन बार-बार बदलती परिस्थितिमें तीन कारणों से लालू-मोदी की सीधी लड़ाई में मोदी को अडवांटेज दे रहाहूं। अधिक सीट जीत सकते हैं मोदी।
13-हालत यह है कि बाकी के 13 सीटों में मोदी-लालू में जो कुनबा अपने वोट बैंक का अधिक उपयोग करेगा,अडवांटेज में वही रहेगा।
12-यहीं मोदी लहरबीजेपी के लिएसंजीवनी बनी।मोदी न होते तो बीजेपी की हालत नीतीश सी होती। माइनसयादव,हिंदुओं का वोट मोदी के नाम पर मिल गया
11- वोटिंग पैर्टन इस कदर सेउलझी कि सारे अनुमान-ट्रेंड एक तरफ हो गये और बिहार की गणनाा नये सिरे सेहोने लगी। हर कोई नया अर्थ निकालने लगा
10-लेकिन लालू के काट मेंबीजेपी ने भी हिंदु वोट को बहुत हद तक पोलराइज्ड करन में सफलता पा ली। कुछजगह निश्चित हार को बचाने में सफल हो गये
9-कुछ सीटों पर जहांआरजेडी-बीजेपी की लडाई कांटे की थी,जेडीयू के लोकल उममीदवार ने ऊपरी शह सेलालू के पक्ष में अपरोक्ष रूप से मैदान छोड दिया
8- जो बिहार में रहते हैं वहजानते हैं कि यादव-मुस्लिम थोक में वोटिंग करते रहे हैं।इसे लालू लहर कहागया मोदी लहर से भारी साबित होगा
7-चूंकि फील्ड से यादव-मुस्लिम के अग्रेसिव वोटिंग की खबर आई अचानक बिहार से हवा बदलने आई। यह आंशिक रूप से सही भी है।
6- चुनाव जैसे-जैसे करीब आयायादव-मुस्लिम लालू के साथ आ गये,बीजेपी सवर्ण, दलित वोट के सहारे आगे बढ़नेलगी।नीतीश लड़ाई में लगातार दूर होते गये
5-मोदी ने यादव वोट पर टारगेटकिया,इस क्रम में लालू पर उन्होंने तीखे हमले नहीं किये। लालू ने बदले मेंतीखा हमला किया।लालू अडवांटेज में रहे
4- बीजेपी का गणित था कि नरेन्द्र मोदी के नाम परओबीसी,सर्वण और चुके हुए लालू से यादव वोट खींचकर बिहार फतह कर लेंगे
3-नीतीश का गणित था किमहादलित,ओबीसी और कुछ मुस्लिम वोट के सहारे सम्माजनक कुनबा बचाने में सफलरह जाएंगे। तीनों के वोट मिल जाएं तो संभव भी था
2- आरजेडी के पास लालू,जेडीयूके पास नीतीश का चेहरा था।बीजेपी को मोदी के सहारे उतरना मजबूरी था और उरतेभी। चुनाव पूरे जातीय समीकरण पर होने थे
1-नीतीश के बीजेपी से अलग होनेके बाद ऐसे आसार बने कि आरजेडी-कांग्रेस-एलजेपी,जेडीयू और बीजेपी आपस मेंलड़ेगी। तीनों के चांस बनेंगे
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jha
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Yahi to hum bhi kah rahe hain.. 20-24 for BJP+ .... And this is not Lalu comeback. This is Nitish's own $hit.
paranoiarocks
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jha
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JD-U with Nitish at helm wont. But some vertical split in JD-U can not be ruled out after the election results. MLAs will force JD-U to seek alliance with BJP/RJD. Interesting times ahead in Bihar.
JanjaWeed
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'Nitish govt will collapse on May 21' - The Times of India
@jha what do you reckon? Is there any possibility of change in govt with BJP at the helm? How many members do LJP have in the state assembly?
@jha what do you reckon? Is there any possibility of change in govt with BJP at the helm? How many members do LJP have in the state assembly?
jha
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I hope this does not happen. Lalu needs to be in jail during assembly elections. Bihar can not take a chance right now. Nitish is 100 times better than Lalu.
KS
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Translation for non-hindi BJP supporters ??
paranoiarocks
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paranoiarocks
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1.After Nitish BJP split it was evident that contest will be between con-rjd-ljp , bjp and jdu,all of them had their chances.
2.Rjd had laloo,Jdu had nitish ,BJP had modi (but no local face) so bjp went ahead with support of modi wave .
3.Nitish thought that Mahadalit,obc and some muslims would give him face saving ,at that time it was looking possible too.
4.Bjp was betting on obc,uppercaste and some dis-chanted yadav voters .
5.to woo yadav voters modi didn't attacked laloo but laloo did attack modi & laloo got the advantage
6.as the elections came closer bjp started running with dalit,UC and Laloo with Y-M alliance,nitish was out of race .
7.As reports started coming that M-Y have voted en mass for laloo,winds started changing and this was called laloo wave
8.people who live in bihar know that M-Y vote en mass and that's why laloo wave was termed even stronger that modi one .
9.In some places where BJP-RJD were in tight race ,JDU left the ground covertly for RJD(due to higher orders).
10.But BJP too successfully united the hindu vote(non yadav),that how they saved definitive defeat in some places.
11.Voting trends became so vague that all calculations went upside down and new calculations started happening .
12.And here Modi wave saved BJP ,If modi was not there BJP would have ended like Jdu. Hindu vote(non yadav) is going to bjp due to modi factor
13.As things hold now ,anyone who uses his vote bank properly will win the remaining 13 seats.
14.Due to these changed circumstances ,I'am giving modi slight edge due to 3 reasons ,modi can win more seats .
15. 1st reason-> better cadre ,second--> chance of becoming PM and third the blast in patna gave modi advantage and thats why modi is looking in a slightly better position than laloo.
16.Few seats are for last ball game,I will not get astonished if things change ,i will accept defeat if iam wrong .
17.NDA-25,UPA-15,one two seats can go here and there and I'am not getting any money for making these assumptions .
SwAggeR
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Tridibans
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On Rahul's turf, they hail Gujarat model - The Times of India
Nice read. Though I strongly believe TOI is a congressi mouthpiece.....
Even if Smriti Irani loses to Rahul, one thing is for sure, the Gandhi family is having sleepless nights thinking about the outcome
Nice read. Though I strongly believe TOI is a congressi mouthpiece.....
Even if Smriti Irani loses to Rahul, one thing is for sure, the Gandhi family is having sleepless nights thinking about the outcome
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