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Hoping its concentrated in 10-11 seats even if true
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Hoping its concentrated in 10-11 seats even if true
Jason bourne
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Just watched AMITSHAH's interview he looked very calm and compose . He is confident of getting majority and I have full confidence in him 
GreenFoe
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Constituency Report 03: Kannauj and Mumbai North-West
Posted : 11:26 am, April 24, 2014 by admin
Mumbai North-West
This is a seat that Gurudas Kamat had won comprehensively in 2009 due to the MNS taking away 18% of the votes. In 2009, while Shiv Sena had only taken leads in Jogeshwari East and had come a very close second in Goregaon, everywhere else MNS had hurt the Sena badly. For instance, in Dindoshi, Shiv Sena had got 30k votes and MNS took 28k votes, while Gurudas Kamat of Congress romped home by taking 34k votes. If such a pattern continues this time, then Mr Kamat can be lucky once again.
At the outset, the contest this time looks like a 4-cornered battle with MNS nominating film maker Mahesh Manjrekar and AAP entering the race through Mayank Gandhi. The real fight though is between sitting MP Gurudas Kamat and Gajanan Kirtikar of Shiv Sena. Will the MNS cut the same amount of votes as last time? Will AAP eat more into the Congress votes? These are some of the questions we are seeking answers to and are strategically tracking three probable swing areas for 2014 of Versova, Goregaon and Andheri West.
Let us first project this result of Mumbai North West – Gurudas Kamat is losing this seat and Shiv Sena’s Gajanan Kirtikar is winning this seat. Yes there is massive Muslim consolidation behind Congress, but MNS is not really polling much here and Shiv Sena is getting almost the entire spectrum of Hindu votes – Marathas, Brahmins, Dalits et al. AAP, for all its “Hawa” isn’t getting any traction even here. It would be a minor miracle if Mayank Gandhi were to save his deposit.
Kannauj
This is a high profile seat where UP CM’s wife Dimple Yadav had won without even a contest in a by-election. SP has once again nominated the Bahu from this city of fragrance. She is pitted against two upper castes Nirmal Tiwari of BSP and Subrat Pathak of BJP which may lead to division of anti-Yadav vote here and help Akhileh’s wife to romp home. Dimple Yadav is not exactly invincible as many media pundits would like us to believe as she had lost her very first election from Firozabad to Raj Babbar just a few years ago. Can the Modi wave penetrate this SP bastion is the question we are asking today to understand the 24th April polling day.
Kannauj is a very interesting seat this time and Dimple Yadav is actually trailing behind BJP till late afternoon;
Related posts:
Constituency Report 4: Araria and Mumbai North-East
Posted : 2:19 pm, April 24, 2014 by admin
Mumbai North East
Sanjay Dina Patil of NCP had won this seat in 2009 by a narrow margin of merely 2933 votes by getting dollops of help from MNS which had polled a whopping 195148 votes! In fact, MNS had taken pole position in 3 out of the 6 assembly segments and BJP had won 2 out of 6, while NCP only won Shivaji Nagar and yet managed to win this seat! The electoral arithmetic had gone so totally against BJP last time that Kirit Somaiya had lost despite doing very well in terms of performance.
This time MNS has not only withdrawn its candidate in favour of the BJP, but MNS workers are also reportedly actively working for Kirit Somaiya. What has probably added to Sanjay Dina Patil’s worries is Medha Patkar of AAP who is taking a chunk of traditional Congress votes. We have been tracking Mankhurd Shivaji Nagar, Bhandup West and Ghatkopar areas to see the mood of Mumbai.
BJP’s Kirit Somaiya is ahead by a huge margin in this seat even Congress pockets. We are projecting that Kirit is winning this seat by a big margin of above 60k to 1 Lakh votes. AAP’s Medha Patkar may surprise by the votes she has secured, possibly the best performing AAP candidate among all in Mumbai or possibly whole of Maharashtra. BJP’s lead though is huge in sheer numbers as it has got almost 80% consolidation of both Maratha and Dalit votes. Medha Patkar has probably helped BJP in a big way.
Araria
This is again a seat that BJP had won last time and has given ticket to its sitting MP Pradeep Kumar Singh. What is interesting is that LJP was the main opponent against BJP here last time and had won 2 out of the 6 assembly segments Araria and Jokihat, while BJP had taken pole position in the remaining 4. Will the LJP joining NDA help BJP in this seat is one of the reasons why we are closely watching Araria. This seat has also become important because opposition is trying hard to consolidate anti-BJP votes in this Nepal bordering town where almost 60% of the polling booths are sensitive and a large posse of central forces are guarding them (which may discourage a section of the middle class voters).
There are close to 6 lakh Muslim voters here out of the total 16 lakh voters which is also the reason why this is an important parliamentary constituency of Bihar in phase 3. If BJP has to win this seat, there has to be near unanimous OBC-Upper caste vote in its favour along with a section of Dalits that Paswan may bring to the table. We also tracked how the 1.5 lakh plus Yadavs voted here in Araria.
Related posts:
Posted : 11:26 am, April 24, 2014 by admin
Mumbai North-West
This is a seat that Gurudas Kamat had won comprehensively in 2009 due to the MNS taking away 18% of the votes. In 2009, while Shiv Sena had only taken leads in Jogeshwari East and had come a very close second in Goregaon, everywhere else MNS had hurt the Sena badly. For instance, in Dindoshi, Shiv Sena had got 30k votes and MNS took 28k votes, while Gurudas Kamat of Congress romped home by taking 34k votes. If such a pattern continues this time, then Mr Kamat can be lucky once again.
At the outset, the contest this time looks like a 4-cornered battle with MNS nominating film maker Mahesh Manjrekar and AAP entering the race through Mayank Gandhi. The real fight though is between sitting MP Gurudas Kamat and Gajanan Kirtikar of Shiv Sena. Will the MNS cut the same amount of votes as last time? Will AAP eat more into the Congress votes? These are some of the questions we are seeking answers to and are strategically tracking three probable swing areas for 2014 of Versova, Goregaon and Andheri West.
Let us first project this result of Mumbai North West – Gurudas Kamat is losing this seat and Shiv Sena’s Gajanan Kirtikar is winning this seat. Yes there is massive Muslim consolidation behind Congress, but MNS is not really polling much here and Shiv Sena is getting almost the entire spectrum of Hindu votes – Marathas, Brahmins, Dalits et al. AAP, for all its “Hawa” isn’t getting any traction even here. It would be a minor miracle if Mayank Gandhi were to save his deposit.
Kannauj
This is a high profile seat where UP CM’s wife Dimple Yadav had won without even a contest in a by-election. SP has once again nominated the Bahu from this city of fragrance. She is pitted against two upper castes Nirmal Tiwari of BSP and Subrat Pathak of BJP which may lead to division of anti-Yadav vote here and help Akhileh’s wife to romp home. Dimple Yadav is not exactly invincible as many media pundits would like us to believe as she had lost her very first election from Firozabad to Raj Babbar just a few years ago. Can the Modi wave penetrate this SP bastion is the question we are asking today to understand the 24th April polling day.
Kannauj is a very interesting seat this time and Dimple Yadav is actually trailing behind BJP till late afternoon;
- Yadav’s and Muslims are almost near 90% consolidated behind Dimple, but there is almost 100% consolidation of all other social sections
- Near 100% consolidation of Brahmins and Thakurs behind BJP, which means Nirmal Tiwari of BSP is a non-starter here
- There is also some 60% Dalit consolidation behind BJP’s Subrat Pathak in a totally surprising move of Dalit voters against Mayawati and to defeat the Yadav Bahu
Related posts:
Constituency Report 4: Araria and Mumbai North-East
Posted : 2:19 pm, April 24, 2014 by admin
Mumbai North East
Sanjay Dina Patil of NCP had won this seat in 2009 by a narrow margin of merely 2933 votes by getting dollops of help from MNS which had polled a whopping 195148 votes! In fact, MNS had taken pole position in 3 out of the 6 assembly segments and BJP had won 2 out of 6, while NCP only won Shivaji Nagar and yet managed to win this seat! The electoral arithmetic had gone so totally against BJP last time that Kirit Somaiya had lost despite doing very well in terms of performance.
This time MNS has not only withdrawn its candidate in favour of the BJP, but MNS workers are also reportedly actively working for Kirit Somaiya. What has probably added to Sanjay Dina Patil’s worries is Medha Patkar of AAP who is taking a chunk of traditional Congress votes. We have been tracking Mankhurd Shivaji Nagar, Bhandup West and Ghatkopar areas to see the mood of Mumbai.
BJP’s Kirit Somaiya is ahead by a huge margin in this seat even Congress pockets. We are projecting that Kirit is winning this seat by a big margin of above 60k to 1 Lakh votes. AAP’s Medha Patkar may surprise by the votes she has secured, possibly the best performing AAP candidate among all in Mumbai or possibly whole of Maharashtra. BJP’s lead though is huge in sheer numbers as it has got almost 80% consolidation of both Maratha and Dalit votes. Medha Patkar has probably helped BJP in a big way.
Araria
This is again a seat that BJP had won last time and has given ticket to its sitting MP Pradeep Kumar Singh. What is interesting is that LJP was the main opponent against BJP here last time and had won 2 out of the 6 assembly segments Araria and Jokihat, while BJP had taken pole position in the remaining 4. Will the LJP joining NDA help BJP in this seat is one of the reasons why we are closely watching Araria. This seat has also become important because opposition is trying hard to consolidate anti-BJP votes in this Nepal bordering town where almost 60% of the polling booths are sensitive and a large posse of central forces are guarding them (which may discourage a section of the middle class voters).
There are close to 6 lakh Muslim voters here out of the total 16 lakh voters which is also the reason why this is an important parliamentary constituency of Bihar in phase 3. If BJP has to win this seat, there has to be near unanimous OBC-Upper caste vote in its favour along with a section of Dalits that Paswan may bring to the table. We also tracked how the 1.5 lakh plus Yadavs voted here in Araria.
- Massive vote transfer by LJP of Dalit vote towards BJP+ has made a big difference here
- Non Yadav OBC vote has also gone to BJP in about 65%
- Yadavs have voted close to 60% in favour of RJD
- Muslims have consolidated behind RJD by about 70%
- Upper Castes have consolidated near 100% in favour of BJP
- JDU by polling enough votes has upset the applecart of the Secularists
Related posts:
JanjaWeed
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Voting over in TN, did my part and hope
"Bar bar Modi sarkar"
Did I get that right.
Yup I did know that but I tried changing that a little bit by saying hereafter it is going to be Modi sarkar with my broken hindi or did I blow it?
You are 50% there for 31% of BJP vote share in TN. By the time next election comes around.... you'll get it 100% right.. & BJP will get 50% of the share!
GreenFoe
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Good Evening India: A quick review of 24th April
Posted : 2:54 pm, April 24, 2014 by admin
The 24th of April was always going to be a close election day due to some fascinating contests. We have huge varying data points from all over numbering about 7000+ so we will need at least two days to fully analyse the same. We are doing a brief end of the day analysis as we do on all polling days.
Uttar Pradesh
A very powerful SP zone this region has produced a classic battle in the heartland. While SP’s strength of Yadavs and Muslims have consolidated behind the party more-or-less, BJP seems to have got the rest of the Hindu vote. Unlike how the day began with a major surge for SP< BJP seems to have made some smart recovery in this phase putting a big fight in SP pocket boroughs like Kannauj Firozabad and Hardoi where the saffron party may produce some stunners. It is said that the women voters who came out in large numbers post noon made a big difference to the day’s outcome.
Bihar
This was another tough fight that scared BJP initially, but the party may not have done as badly as expected. In fact, BJP has a chance of sweeping this phase too, looking the way JDU has divided votes in key constituencies. We are still looking at the data very closely, so here are the broad trends for Bihar
Tamil Nadu
This is a stunner of a state which might end up becoming the talking point of 2014. Whoever advised Modi on that alliance in this Dravidian state needs to be saluted for his/her brilliance! Raw data is indicative of NDA being ahead in the race from both the Dravidian parties in a close three-cornered fight, but we will be able to do actual projections only after slicing the data according to social profiling. One of the positives for NDA today was that BJP is ahead of its rivals in Coimbatore!
[This is just a brief EOD analysis of broad trends based on ground reports, we will be doing a fairly deep analysis over the next 72 hours]
Related posts:
Posted : 2:54 pm, April 24, 2014 by admin
The 24th of April was always going to be a close election day due to some fascinating contests. We have huge varying data points from all over numbering about 7000+ so we will need at least two days to fully analyse the same. We are doing a brief end of the day analysis as we do on all polling days.
Uttar Pradesh
A very powerful SP zone this region has produced a classic battle in the heartland. While SP’s strength of Yadavs and Muslims have consolidated behind the party more-or-less, BJP seems to have got the rest of the Hindu vote. Unlike how the day began with a major surge for SP< BJP seems to have made some smart recovery in this phase putting a big fight in SP pocket boroughs like Kannauj Firozabad and Hardoi where the saffron party may produce some stunners. It is said that the women voters who came out in large numbers post noon made a big difference to the day’s outcome.
Bihar
This was another tough fight that scared BJP initially, but the party may not have done as badly as expected. In fact, BJP has a chance of sweeping this phase too, looking the way JDU has divided votes in key constituencies. We are still looking at the data very closely, so here are the broad trends for Bihar
Tamil Nadu
This is a stunner of a state which might end up becoming the talking point of 2014. Whoever advised Modi on that alliance in this Dravidian state needs to be saluted for his/her brilliance! Raw data is indicative of NDA being ahead in the race from both the Dravidian parties in a close three-cornered fight, but we will be able to do actual projections only after slicing the data according to social profiling. One of the positives for NDA today was that BJP is ahead of its rivals in Coimbatore!
[This is just a brief EOD analysis of broad trends based on ground reports, we will be doing a fairly deep analysis over the next 72 hours]
Related posts:
joekrish
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That would be asking for too much anything more than 6 or 7 would be an exaggeration and belive me that is a big,big mountain and only because of the Modi wave.Oh teri.....
Amma ki to chain gayee.....
If it is even 25%, in a 3 way split (4 way at some places), expect atleast 10 seats for BJP+
JanjaWeed
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Constituency Report 03: Kannauj and Mumbai North-West
Posted : 11:26 am, April 24, 2014 by admin
Mumbai North-West
This is a seat that Gurudas Kamat had won comprehensively in 2009 due to the MNS taking away 18% of the votes. In 2009, while Shiv Sena had only taken leads in Jogeshwari East and had come a very close second in Goregaon, everywhere else MNS had hurt the Sena badly. For instance, in Dindoshi, Shiv Sena had got 30k votes and MNS took 28k votes, while Gurudas Kamat of Congress romped home by taking 34k votes. If such a pattern continues this time, then Mr Kamat can be lucky once again.
At the outset, the contest this time looks like a 4-cornered battle with MNS nominating film maker Mahesh Manjrekar and AAP entering the race through Mayank Gandhi. The real fight though is between sitting MP Gurudas Kamat and Gajanan Kirtikar of Shiv Sena. Will the MNS cut the same amount of votes as last time? Will AAP eat more into the Congress votes? These are some of the questions we are seeking answers to and are strategically tracking three probable swing areas for 2014 of Versova, Goregaon and Andheri West.
Let us first project this result of Mumbai North West – Gurudas Kamat is losing this seat and Shiv Sena’s Gajanan Kirtikar is winning this seat. Yes there is massive Muslim consolidation behind Congress, but MNS is not really polling much here and Shiv Sena is getting almost the entire spectrum of Hindu votes – Marathas, Brahmins, Dalits et al. AAP, for all its “Hawa” isn’t getting any traction even here. It would be a minor miracle if Mayank Gandhi were to save his deposit.
Kannauj
This is a high profile seat where UP CM’s wife Dimple Yadav had won without even a contest in a by-election. SP has once again nominated the Bahu from this city of fragrance. She is pitted against two upper castes Nirmal Tiwari of BSP and Subrat Pathak of BJP which may lead to division of anti-Yadav vote here and help Akhileh’s wife to romp home. Dimple Yadav is not exactly invincible as many media pundits would like us to believe as she had lost her very first election from Firozabad to Raj Babbar just a few years ago. Can the Modi wave penetrate this SP bastion is the question we are asking today to understand the 24th April polling day.
Kannauj is a very interesting seat this time and Dimple Yadav is actually trailing behind BJP till late afternoon;
- Yadav’s and Muslims are almost near 90% consolidated behind Dimple, but there is almost 100% consolidation of all other social sections
- Near 100% consolidation of Brahmins and Thakurs behind BJP, which means Nirmal Tiwari of BSP is a non-starter here
- There is also some 60% Dalit consolidation behind BJP’s Subrat Pathak in a totally surprising move of Dalit voters against Mayawati and to defeat the Yadav Bahu
Related posts:
Constituency Report 4: Araria and Mumbai North-East
Posted : 2:19 pm, April 24, 2014 by admin
Mumbai North East
Sanjay Dina Patil of NCP had won this seat in 2009 by a narrow margin of merely 2933 votes by getting dollops of help from MNS which had polled a whopping 195148 votes! In fact, MNS had taken pole position in 3 out of the 6 assembly segments and BJP had won 2 out of 6, while NCP only won Shivaji Nagar and yet managed to win this seat! The electoral arithmetic had gone so totally against BJP last time that Kirit Somaiya had lost despite doing very well in terms of performance.
This time MNS has not only withdrawn its candidate in favour of the BJP, but MNS workers are also reportedly actively working for Kirit Somaiya. What has probably added to Sanjay Dina Patil’s worries is Medha Patkar of AAP who is taking a chunk of traditional Congress votes. We have been tracking Mankhurd Shivaji Nagar, Bhandup West and Ghatkopar areas to see the mood of Mumbai.
BJP’s Kirit Somaiya is ahead by a huge margin in this seat even Congress pockets. We are projecting that Kirit is winning this seat by a big margin of above 60k to 1 Lakh votes. AAP’s Medha Patkar may surprise by the votes she has secured, possibly the best performing AAP candidate among all in Mumbai or possibly whole of Maharashtra. BJP’s lead though is huge in sheer numbers as it has got almost 80% consolidation of both Maratha and Dalit votes. Medha Patkar has probably helped BJP in a big way.
Araria
This is again a seat that BJP had won last time and has given ticket to its sitting MP Pradeep Kumar Singh. What is interesting is that LJP was the main opponent against BJP here last time and had won 2 out of the 6 assembly segments Araria and Jokihat, while BJP had taken pole position in the remaining 4. Will the LJP joining NDA help BJP in this seat is one of the reasons why we are closely watching Araria. This seat has also become important because opposition is trying hard to consolidate anti-BJP votes in this Nepal bordering town where almost 60% of the polling booths are sensitive and a large posse of central forces are guarding them (which may discourage a section of the middle class voters).
There are close to 6 lakh Muslim voters here out of the total 16 lakh voters which is also the reason why this is an important parliamentary constituency of Bihar in phase 3. If BJP has to win this seat, there has to be near unanimous OBC-Upper caste vote in its favour along with a section of Dalits that Paswan may bring to the table. We also tracked how the 1.5 lakh plus Yadavs voted here in Araria.
- Massive vote transfer by LJP of Dalit vote towards BJP+ has made a big difference here
- Non Yadav OBC vote has also gone to BJP in about 65%
- Yadavs have voted close to 60% in favour of RJD
- Muslims have consolidated behind RJD by about 70%
- Upper Castes have consolidated near 100% in favour of BJP
- JDU by polling enough votes has upset the applecart of the Secularists
Related posts:
@GreenFoe This is looking really good for saffron alliance! great work by your friends. Let the good news keep flowing...
joekrish
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You are 50% there for 31% of BJP vote share in TN. By the time next election comes around.... you'll get it 100% right.. & BJP will get 50% of the share!
JanjaWeed
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You being a native resident of TN.. would be best placed to explain this massive shift. Is it due to Modi magic or people losing faith in Dravidian parties?
yes.. for votes to turn into seat numbers, it would be great if the vote share is concentrated around certain number of seats. Let's hope this is just the start & trend spreads across the state!
joekrish
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Modi magic for sure, my driver who is a christian married to a muslim----saw him picking up people on a rented car and telling them on why they should vote for Modi and he and his christian friend were paying for the car from their pocket, two years back I am sure he would not have known who Modi is.
What would you call this?
JanjaWeed
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Now.. that says a lot. A bigModi magic for sure, my driver who is a cristian married to a muslim----saw him picking up people on a rented car and telling them on why they should vote for Modi and he and his christian friend were paying for the car from their pocket, two years back I am sure he would not have known who Modi is.
for those who claim there is no Modi wave. Even a state like TN is feeling the breeze! 
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GreenFoe
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Salim shehzad (tortured & murdered in 2011 by 'khooofia idaras') wrote in his book "Inside Al Qaeda and Taliban" Page 116 that ISI wing was involed in the preplanned mumbai attacks
Download Book - Inside Al Qaeda and Taliban : Saleem Shehzad : Free Download & Streaming : Internet Archive
Download Book - Inside Al Qaeda and Taliban : Saleem Shehzad : Free Download & Streaming : Internet Archive
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