Countdown to 2014: Electoral math – part 1
The 2014 general election could be India’s most decisive since 1977. The BJP has anointed its prime ministerial candidate: Narendra Modi. The Congress has not but Rahul Gandhi is clearly the party’s face for 2014.
In every parliamentary democracy – Britain, Australia and Canada are three examples – parties always choose their leader before a general election.
British voters in 2010, for instance, knew who would be prime minister if the party represented by the local candidate they voted for won. If the Conservatives formed the government, it would be David Cameron. If Labour took office, it would be Gordon Brown. Such clarity is necessary in parliamentary democracy.
This study analyses three variables – voteshare trends, state-wise alliances and the projections of recent surveys conducted by polling agencies. The party-wise, state-wise seat projections have been arrived at after giving specific weightages to each variable. The projections are subjective and should be treated as interpretative of available data.
In the 2009 Lok Sabha election, the BJP won an abysmal 18.80% national voteshare and 116 seats. The Congress garnered 28.55% voteshare (206 seats). This study suggests the BJP’s voteshare could climb to just over 26% – its highest ever. Its previous high of 25.59% was in 1998 when it won 182 seats. The extra percentage point can translate into over 20 seats in a fragmented polity.
16th Lok Sabha Projections, 2014
State Total Seats: Cong: BJP
Andhra Pradesh: 42: 6: 5
Arunachal Pradesh: 2: 2: 0
Assam: 14: 4: 5
Bihar: 40: 2: 18
Chhattisgarh: 11: 2: 9
Delhi: 7: 1: 6
Goa: 2: 0: 2
Gujarat: 26: 3: 23
Haryana: 10: 3: 5
Himachal Pradesh: 4: 1: 3
Jammu & Kashmir: 6: 2: 2
Jharkhand: 14: 3: 8
Karnataka: 28: 11: 14
Kerala: 20: 6: 0
Madhya Pradesh: 29: 5: 24
Maharashtra: 48: 10: 15
Manipur: 2: 1: 0
Meghalaya: 2: 1: 0
Mizoram: 1: 1: 0
Nagaland: 1: 1: 0
Odisha: 21: 4: 0
Punjab: 13: 2: 4
Rajasthan: 25: 9: 16
Sikkim: 1: 0: 0
Tamil Nadu: 39: 0: 0
Tripura: 2: 0: 0
Uttarakhand: 5: 1: 4
Uttar Pradesh: 80: 5: 39
West Bengal: 42: 5: 0
Andaman & Nicobar: 1: 0: 1
Chandigarh: 1: 1: 0
Dadra and Nagar Haveli: 1: 0: 1
Daman & Diu: 1: 0: 1
Lakshadweep: 1: 1: 0
Puducherry: 1: 0: 0
Nominated Members: 2: 0: 0
Total: 545: 93: 205
Note: In states where Cong+BJP projected seats don’t add up to total seats, UPA/NDA allies or unattached regional parties make up the projected balance as follows:
NDA allies projected seat tally: SS 16, SAD 7, HJC 1,
INLD 1, Independents/Others 4. Total 29.
UPA allies projected seat tally: NCP 4, NC 2, Independents/Others: 5 Total 11.
Leaning BJP: AIADMK 27, TDP 7, MNS 3, AGP 2, Others 8. Total 47.
Leaning Congress: YSR 13, DMK 10, RJD 10, Others 4. Total 37.
Unattached Regional: JD(U) 10, TMC 25, BSP 15, SP 21, BJD 14, TRS 10,
Left Front 28. Total 123.
Summary:
BJP (205) + allies (29)= 234 + Leaning BJP (47) = 281
Congress (93) + allies (11) = 104 + Leaning Congress (37) = 141
Unattached Regional = 123
Key takeaways:
The Telangana imbroglio will be tricky for all parties. This study assumes that till the protests in Seemandhra subside, it could be difficult but not impossible for the UPA government to form Telangana before the Lok Sabha election. For the purpose of this study though, Andhra Pradesh has been taken as an undivided unit.
In Uttar Pradesh, the Samajwadi Party government’s polarisation of Muslims has led to over 100 communal riots since mid-2012. Jat-Muslim unity is broken in Western UP and this could help the BJP consolidate its traditional upper caste votes with Jats to increase its voteshare from 18% to around 28% – enough to win between 35 and 40 seats.
In Bihar, following Lalu Prasad Yadav’s arrest, the RJD will garner a sympathy vote from its Muslim-Yadav votebank. The Congress has three options: make informal seat sharing arrangements with either the RJD or the JD(U) or go it alone. Whichever option it finally chooses, it could end up with very few seats. The BJP may emerge as the largest single party in the state due to a consolidation of upper caste and OBC votes following Modi’s campaign in Bihar where grassroots workers will – despite Modi’s own distaste for caste politics – highlight his OBC identity.
The study assumes B.S. Yeddyurappa’s KJP will either merge with the BJP before the 2014 Lok Sabha poll or conclude seat sharing arrangements with it. The BJP’s projected Karnataka tally of 14 includes the KJP’s.
In Maharashtra, Raj Thackeray’s MNS may not agree to seat adjustments with the BJP-Shiv Sena-RPI but its projected seats (3) are counted separately as a post-poll BJP ally.
Babulal Marandi’s Jharkhand Vikas Morcha could, however, agree to pre-poll seat sharing arrangements with the BJP in Jharkhand projected to garner 8 out of 14 seats against the Congress-JMM front.
The Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) will have little national impact on the Lok Sabha poll though it could do relatively well in the Delhi state assembly elections in December.
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BJP prime ministerial candidate Narendra Modi’s campaign, leading up to voting in April-May 2014, could trigger a larger wave than the moderate wave assumed in this study. Such an enhanced Modi wave could increase the BJP’s tally from the projected 205 seats to over 220 seats. In that event, pre-poll allies (29 seats – see chart) and around 25 MPs from small post-poll allies and independents would take the BJP past 272 seats, allowing it the luxury of using the AIADMK, TDP and other likely post-poll allies as a cushion to cross 300 seats.
It has been argued that the BJP needs 50 seats in Uttar Pradesh to win 200 seats nationally. This is tendentious. In this study, the BJP is projected to win “only” 39 seats in UP and still win 205 seats in the Lok Sabha.
Uttar Pradesh is vital but so are the other large catchment states like Gujarat (23), Madhya Pradesh (25), Rajasthan (16), Bihar (18) and Maharashtra (15). These five states alone could contribute nearly 100 seats to the BJP. Four others – Delhi (6), Karnataka (14), Jharkhand (8) and Chhattisgarh (9) – could account for another 37 seats. With UP’s 39 seats, the BJP’s tally from just these 10 prime states would be around 175 of the projected 205. States like Punjab, Haryana, Himachal Pradesh, Uttarakhand, Assam and Goa would be among those which would then contribute to the final figure.
Clearly, Modi should follow a dual strategy: one, focus on the 10 big catchment states cited above with a potential of 175 seats; and two, cast a nationwide net for states where the BJP has limited presence as his pan-national wave builds. The BJP is likely to contest 450 Lok Sabha seats in 2014. To win 205, as this study suggests, it needs a strike rate of just over 45% – difficult but doable.
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The Congress’ de facto prime ministerial candidate is Rahul Gandhi. But the party recognises that, despite the food security and land acquisition acts and the direct benefit transfer scheme, it won’t be able to win enough seats to form a government with Third Front support – or support a Third Front government from outside as in 1996-98. Put together, the Congress (93), its UPA allies (11), leaning Congress (37) and the non-overlapping Third Front (123 seats less RJD/JDU, SP/BSP, Left/TMC) are projected to win just 210 seats.
Rahul will thus likely sit in the opposition, build the party and await 2019. He will be nearly 50 years old then (on June 19, 2020). With a new cache of young voters (who are today between 12 and 17 years old) eligible to vote for the first time in 2019, the number of below 28-year-olds will by then swell to nearly 300 million (including 150 million first-time voters who would be between 18 and 23 in 2014).
They will be connected to social media and could determine India’s electoral landscape well into this century. They are aspirational, want jobs and dislike the privilege and entitlement that come with dynasty. To win them over, Rahul will have to reinvent himself.
Modi meanwhile must ration his appearances over the next seven months. Over-exposure could lead him to peak early. Fortunately for him, the five state assembly elections will provide a natural break between the first and second phases of his campaign – the latter gathering pace from January 2014 to polling day in May 2014.
Corruption, inflation and governance should dominate his campaign speeches along with his alternative vision for the economy, foreign policy, Pakistan, terrorism, China, healthcare, fiscal reform, education, sanitation, subsidies, and judicial, police and administrative reforms.
The last two years have stalled the country’s growth story. If elected, Prime Minister Modi will have to hit the ground running to make up for lost time.
Countdown to 2014: Electoral math
