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Why the election-swinging middle class will vote for Modi!
The election-swinging middle-class is clearly showing an NDA bias. The BJP's prime ministerial candidate Narendra Modi has cleverly surfed the wave of large-scale disillusionment over corruption, unemployment, rising prices and national security and tom-tommed his Gujarat model to emerge as the candidate of middle class choice.
Armed with knowledge and information, the middle-class has evolved in the last 10 years and has shifted its focus to the BJP.
Recent nationwide surveys indicate anger against the UPA. And nowhere is this more evident than on the faces of the middle-class people who expect the leadership vacuum to be filled by Modi.
The coming Lok Sabha polls will be different for many reasons, but the middle-class phenomenon will rule the biggest political battle. There are 200 seats with a sizeable middle class vote share. All these seats are now up for grabs.
The results of the recent Assembly polls have established that AAP is a middle-class phenomenon. And yes, the middle-class is no longer only an urban phenomenon. Though it is true that a large part of the middle-class population lives in urban areas, a huge chunk also belongs to sub-urban and rural areas.
The middle-class - comprising lower social groups, including Dalits, and the upwardly mobile income groups - played a massive role in the Delhi Assembly elections. The result shattered many myths as AAP got a resounding thumbs-up, winning both the segments.
Remarkably, the surveys have revealed that the BJP's middle-class support is evolving, with votes largely coming from the suburban and rural areas. If AAP polls 5 per cent of the votes nationally, they will damage BJP on 50 odd seats. If they get 10 per cent of the national vote, then they will damage BJP on 100 seats.
And these seats will be a toss-up between the Congress and the BJP. But if AAP crosses 15 per cent of the vote share, the party will become a serious contender to grab a lot of these seats, repeating the Delhi feat.
The middle-class has two sides: one that boasts of cosmopolitan middle-class values and the other, traditional middle-class values.
The former live in urban areas and have their own identity and thought process. They are more exposed to information and news, and that is why they are more likely to think beyond religious and caste lines. They are very well aware of who is to be blamed for issues. Armed with knowledge and information, they are more concerned about issues like corruption and inflation, which played a crucial role in the recently concluded Assembly polls.
These issues are sure to play an important role in the parliamentary elections as well. If we see the voting patterns of the last 50 years, we find the anti-incumbency factor at play. But, this time it has not worked everywhere. It is only because of the larger participation of people from the the middle class, who earn Rs 35,000 per month for a family of four and are concerned about these issues.
Though the anti-incumbency factor went against Sheila Dikshit (Delhi) and Ashok Gehlot (Rajasthan), it did not go against Raman Singh (Chhattisgarh) and Shivraj Singh Chouhan (Madhya Pradesh) because the issues of corruption and inflation dominated the scene.
Why the election-swinging middle class will vote for Modi | Mail Online
The election-swinging middle-class is clearly showing an NDA bias. The BJP's prime ministerial candidate Narendra Modi has cleverly surfed the wave of large-scale disillusionment over corruption, unemployment, rising prices and national security and tom-tommed his Gujarat model to emerge as the candidate of middle class choice.
Armed with knowledge and information, the middle-class has evolved in the last 10 years and has shifted its focus to the BJP.
Recent nationwide surveys indicate anger against the UPA. And nowhere is this more evident than on the faces of the middle-class people who expect the leadership vacuum to be filled by Modi.
The coming Lok Sabha polls will be different for many reasons, but the middle-class phenomenon will rule the biggest political battle. There are 200 seats with a sizeable middle class vote share. All these seats are now up for grabs.
The results of the recent Assembly polls have established that AAP is a middle-class phenomenon. And yes, the middle-class is no longer only an urban phenomenon. Though it is true that a large part of the middle-class population lives in urban areas, a huge chunk also belongs to sub-urban and rural areas.
The middle-class - comprising lower social groups, including Dalits, and the upwardly mobile income groups - played a massive role in the Delhi Assembly elections. The result shattered many myths as AAP got a resounding thumbs-up, winning both the segments.
And these seats will be a toss-up between the Congress and the BJP. But if AAP crosses 15 per cent of the vote share, the party will become a serious contender to grab a lot of these seats, repeating the Delhi feat.
The middle-class has two sides: one that boasts of cosmopolitan middle-class values and the other, traditional middle-class values.
The former live in urban areas and have their own identity and thought process. They are more exposed to information and news, and that is why they are more likely to think beyond religious and caste lines. They are very well aware of who is to be blamed for issues. Armed with knowledge and information, they are more concerned about issues like corruption and inflation, which played a crucial role in the recently concluded Assembly polls.
These issues are sure to play an important role in the parliamentary elections as well. If we see the voting patterns of the last 50 years, we find the anti-incumbency factor at play. But, this time it has not worked everywhere. It is only because of the larger participation of people from the the middle class, who earn Rs 35,000 per month for a family of four and are concerned about these issues.
Though the anti-incumbency factor went against Sheila Dikshit (Delhi) and Ashok Gehlot (Rajasthan), it did not go against Raman Singh (Chhattisgarh) and Shivraj Singh Chouhan (Madhya Pradesh) because the issues of corruption and inflation dominated the scene.
Why the election-swinging middle class will vote for Modi | Mail Online