Nilgiri
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Hope I am not repeating a previous post:
http://5forty3.in/implement/stateMAPm_MAPiUP6.php
As phase 6 almost comes to a close, the MAPi is clearly indicating a solid showing by BJP overall, but of course what matters are the intra-district numbers and the weighted data which will give us a greater inkling of the actual saffron performance. For now, it looks like this was possibly the best phase for BJP. The strategy of bringing together various strands of non-dominant backward castes and Dalits seems to have worked wonders for the BJP here. The process was deep-rooted not just an overnight election campaign phenomenon. If the Ujjwala yojana which was launched from Poorvanchal laid the foundation of reaching out to the poorest (who also mostly happened to be backward and Dalit) women among the household, the NaMo notebandi brought the men folk into the saffron fold in the belief that finally somebody was willing to tinker the social status quo by challenging the power of black money owning classes. Then Amit Bhai shah laid down the political groundwork by tying up with small OBC parties like SBSP and inducting tall Pasi-Dalit leaders like R.K. Chaudhary into the NDA fold. At multiple levels, the message went across to large OBC, MBC and Dalit leaders at the block and village level that they were not only getting socio-economic benefits but also the much deserved political respect from a party that had elected Narendra Modi, an MBC leader, as the Prime Minister of India. In turn these small grassroots leaders began to spread the message of “vote for lotus” among the poorest backward and Dalit voters which may have caused a mini tsunami in Poorvanchal. Now the only X factor left for the BJP is to see how much support have they managed to retain among its core upper caste voters, especially the Brahmins.
The big problem for the opposition to BJP seems to be lack of clarity. At many places the race seems to be evenly poised between SP-Congress alliance and the BSP for the 2nd place which is why most Muslim voters are so confused. In fact, even pollsters, including we here at 5Forty3 seem to have classically underestimated Maya. BSP may really spring a big surprise on March 11th, although this could only hurt the CM more than anybody else. The one constant factor that MAPi has been displaying is the huge amounts of anti-incumbency against sitting legislators of SP even in many Muslim dominated areas where the minority voters are willing to vote for BSP just to vent out their anger at the local MLA. If the Grand Alliance underperforms by another 2 or 3 percentage points overall, then there is a great chance for Akhilesh to even miss the LOP. For Maya, the same problem of bad seat conversion ratios have haunted throughout this election season.
http://5forty3.in/implement/stateMAPm_MAPiUP6.php
As phase 6 almost comes to a close, the MAPi is clearly indicating a solid showing by BJP overall, but of course what matters are the intra-district numbers and the weighted data which will give us a greater inkling of the actual saffron performance. For now, it looks like this was possibly the best phase for BJP. The strategy of bringing together various strands of non-dominant backward castes and Dalits seems to have worked wonders for the BJP here. The process was deep-rooted not just an overnight election campaign phenomenon. If the Ujjwala yojana which was launched from Poorvanchal laid the foundation of reaching out to the poorest (who also mostly happened to be backward and Dalit) women among the household, the NaMo notebandi brought the men folk into the saffron fold in the belief that finally somebody was willing to tinker the social status quo by challenging the power of black money owning classes. Then Amit Bhai shah laid down the political groundwork by tying up with small OBC parties like SBSP and inducting tall Pasi-Dalit leaders like R.K. Chaudhary into the NDA fold. At multiple levels, the message went across to large OBC, MBC and Dalit leaders at the block and village level that they were not only getting socio-economic benefits but also the much deserved political respect from a party that had elected Narendra Modi, an MBC leader, as the Prime Minister of India. In turn these small grassroots leaders began to spread the message of “vote for lotus” among the poorest backward and Dalit voters which may have caused a mini tsunami in Poorvanchal. Now the only X factor left for the BJP is to see how much support have they managed to retain among its core upper caste voters, especially the Brahmins.
The big problem for the opposition to BJP seems to be lack of clarity. At many places the race seems to be evenly poised between SP-Congress alliance and the BSP for the 2nd place which is why most Muslim voters are so confused. In fact, even pollsters, including we here at 5Forty3 seem to have classically underestimated Maya. BSP may really spring a big surprise on March 11th, although this could only hurt the CM more than anybody else. The one constant factor that MAPi has been displaying is the huge amounts of anti-incumbency against sitting legislators of SP even in many Muslim dominated areas where the minority voters are willing to vote for BSP just to vent out their anger at the local MLA. If the Grand Alliance underperforms by another 2 or 3 percentage points overall, then there is a great chance for Akhilesh to even miss the LOP. For Maya, the same problem of bad seat conversion ratios have haunted throughout this election season.
Kavita Krishnan 
The Wire 
Rahul Kanwal 
Rajdeep Sardesai 
