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@paranoiarocks full report on may 7 from 5forty3 is up 
Indian Political Corner | All Updates & Discussions.
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Levina
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Well he had mentioned me in the post, like I mention him on many posts about Pakistan.
Leader bhai has always replied back with a very frank opinion, without taking sides. And he expected the same from me.
Thats it!!!
Your post did have a profane word .
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@paranoiarocks @jbond197@paranoiarocks full report on may 7 from 5forty3 is up
Freeloaders waiting for you
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Aagaye na Aukaat pe AAP.They are ready to support Third Front now, shows what their Agenda was from the Beginning to Stop BJP coming to power by hook or crook.B-team of Congress.
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@paranoiarocks full report on may 7 from 5forty3 is up
The end game of 2014 and the strengthening of trends
Posted : 11:03 am, May 11, 2014 by admin
This last but one phase was a crucial one for the 2014 elections as it was a decisive phase in the heartland where BJP is fighting one of the most crucial electoral battles in its more than 3 decade long existence. In both UP and Bihar, the saffron fight is against the established caste-fault lines which have managed to keep the numerically superior Hindu vote away from the power matrix by creating electoral divisions. These last two phases will decisively tell us whether the United Spectrum of Hindu Vote is a real ground possibility or a mere imagination of this author.
What is also playing out in a big way in these last two phases is the “index of opposition unity” which had helped the Congress party for close to 5 decades after independence. 2014 will also prove decisively that BJP is now the dominant political party in India and the index of opposition unity would always be inversely proportional to its electoral success. The fact that SP, BSP, RJD, JDU and Congress couldn’t come under one platform would always give the frontrunner advantage to the BJP in the near term. What is also noteworthy is that by the time all these disparate parties come together, they may prove to achieve too little too late, as BJP would have itself expanded laterally and would have occupied space using alliance partners like LJP.
Uttar Pradesh
This was a phase where Congress had once again outperformed all other parties in 2009 by winning 7 out of 15 seats which is indicative of a latent “national vote” in this region once again as we say in the previous phase of 30th April. In fact, in just these two phases, Congress had won 66% of its seats from UP in 2009 and both these phases were home to urban Uttar Pradesh of the central region (the big cities of Lucknow, Allahabad and Kanpur etc.). This time, the “national vote” has gone to the BJP which is seen in the total meltdown of the Congress party.
This was also the phase where BSP was supposed to put up a challenge to the Modi juggernaut, but it failed in totality as it couldn’t even hold on to its core-vote of Dalits (especially the non-Jatavs) let alone accruing the additional vote of upper caste Brahmins and Muslims. In fact, BSP was not putting up any challenge against the BJP and it was the Samajwadis who were the runner’s up in this phase. We had a total sample-size of 2130 in UP spread across 18 assembly segments of 7 parliamentary seats of Uttar Pradesh for the May 7th polls and the resultant numbers where then extrapolated to our own social profile data based on the latest Census to add weightage accordingly.
Because BJP kept its core upper-caste vote almost overwhelmingly intact and because it also managed to get additional votes of other OBCs (including a section of Yadavs) and Dalits, the party has simply managed to outperform all other outfits in UP. The problem for other opposition parties is exactly the opposite, they have neither been able to hold on to their core votes (Dalits for BSP and OBCs for SP) nor have they managed to gain any traction in the additional non-core votes. Congress, which used to get bits of all the votes is now literally a bits and pieces player as it has seen a complete meltdown. Once again we see the same theme of a united Hindu vote and an almost disinterested Muslim vote in Uttar Pradesh. In terms of seat conversion, it is actually a relatively simpler exercise in this phase as what we did was use the Congress’s vote-to-seat conversion of last time and extrapolated the same to 2014 which gives BJP 2/3rd seats in this phase. Amethi, of course is a close call where Rahul Gandhi may yet emerge victorious due to superior booth management skills but as of now we are projecting it to the BJP just based on numbers.
Bihar
This is a state, unlike UP, where Muslims have probably found a rallying point in the form of RJD-Congress combine, but is it really stopping the BJP’s surge is really debatable. In the past the MY (Muslim-Yadav) combination would be almost unstoppable in Bihar, but what BJP has managed to do this time is bring in a large section of other OBCs along with its core vote of upper castes into one platform which has managed to equal the MY combo. What has added the edge to BJP’s vote-share is possibly the Dalit vote which could be the crucial differentiator in this state.
The last two phases had seen a surge of support to RJD-Congress combine which had given BJP and NDA a run for their money, but this time something is happening on the ground. Although we are taking this as a statistical aberration due to LJP’s strength in Hajipur (Ram Vilas Paswan’s constituency) and Samastipur (which we tracked on Wednesday) where Ram Vilas Paswan’s brother has some pockets of influence, there seems to be once again a significant section of Muslim voters who are voting for the NDA. This is a feature we observed in the first two phases too, but as polling progressed into Muslim dominated RJD strongholds, polarization became overtly evident. On the 7th May election once again that trend seems to have reversed as Muslims were seen to be returning back to the NDA.
It could well be possible that Muslim voters are lying about their electoral choice, but after taking various aspects into consideration, we are giving NDA about 20% of the Muslim vote in this phase. This is a risk that we are taking based on our own numbers and making a bold projection which goes against the conventional wisdom. May 7th phase has seen a trend reversal and we have spotted it in our numbers, let us see how far we have been successful in projecting this event.
Seemandhra
Seemandhra was a nightmare election to project on the 7th of May as it was a really neck-to-neck fight in a state that saw a huge turnout. One needs to be extremely cautious in reading the numbers from Seemandhra purely because of the turnout factor which may be indicating a sweep for one or the other party or combination while the actual data suggests a vertical split. In such a situation we are bravely projecting the Vote-Share numbers despite the caveat of the turnout as a factor. Some of the factors that played out in Seemandhra on 7th May that actually made this a cracker of a contest are themselves unique to 2014;
- Division of the state was a major issue which overshadowed all other factors, so Modi as a factor was almost non-evident in the overall picture of this truncated state. In fact, Seemandhra was the one state apart from probably Kerala where Modi didn’t make much of a difference
- The TDP-BJP alliance made a difference of possibly 4-5% swing in favour of the alliance although one cannot surely fathom whether it will help Naidu form a government here
- Polarization in the last few days among Muslim voters towards Jagan Reddy’s party did help YSRCP to some extent to overcome the momentum of TDP-BJP alliance
- Jagan managed to keep his vote-base of Reddys, lower classes and Muslims with no cross voting whatsoever in both LS as well as assembly polls unlike what we witnessed in Telangana. TDP-BJP did get an additional percent or two in the LS polls but it was more of “others” vote
- There was no cross-voting from Christians (believed to be close to 20%) who stuck to YSRCP
- Kapu consolidation was solidly behind TDP-BJP (roughly 59%) which helped the alliance to a large extent
- Although YSRCP scored a better vote-share in assembly polls in overall terms, this was skewed by the party’s much better performance in Rayalaseema whereas TDP-BJP has probably done better in the other regions
Seat conversion from this kind of vote-share projection is another nightmare so we are not projecting for the assembly polls and are sticking to LS polls only. This looks like a very close race for Seemandhra assembly like the Chhattisgarh election of last December wherein we decided to only do a vote-share projection and not hazard a guess as to seat-share.
Note: Andhra Pradesh is not one of our core states that we track and we depend on third party sources to derive numbers so we cannot fully vouch for the projections but with an error margin of 3% we can safely assume that these numbers should hold on May 16th. There is one caveat though, the high voter turnout could alter the dynamics of this state dramatically as there could be a silent vote that hasn’t been discovered in our surveys.
Overall Projections for May 7th
Related posts:
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paranoiarocks
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Here is the Overall scenario(42 Seats Left to poll)
Last edited:
paranoiarocks
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anonymus
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Here is the Overall scenario(42 Seats Left to poll)
Bhai,
Mujhko 5forty3 ke predictions pe vishwas nahi ho raha hain.
paranoiarocks
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Ab ye uske projection he main kya karu ,Kal 5-6 survey ayenge :|
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bhai mere.. I only have one question.. as per above prediction Congress has drawn a blank in UP on 7th May. So are we to conclude that Pappu has lost his seat in Amethi?The end game of 2014 and the strengthening of trends
Posted : 11:03 am, May 11, 2014 by admin
This last but one phase was a crucial one for the 2014 elections as it was a decisive phase in the heartland where BJP is fighting one of the most crucial electoral battles in its more than 3 decade long existence. In both UP and Bihar, the saffron fight is against the established caste-fault lines which have managed to keep the numerically superior Hindu vote away from the power matrix by creating electoral divisions. These last two phases will decisively tell us whether the United Spectrum of Hindu Vote is a real ground possibility or a mere imagination of this author.
What is also playing out in a big way in these last two phases is the “index of opposition unity” which had helped the Congress party for close to 5 decades after independence. 2014 will also prove decisively that BJP is now the dominant political party in India and the index of opposition unity would always be inversely proportional to its electoral success. The fact that SP, BSP, RJD, JDU and Congress couldn’t come under one platform would always give the frontrunner advantage to the BJP in the near term. What is also noteworthy is that by the time all these disparate parties come together, they may prove to achieve too little too late, as BJP would have itself expanded laterally and would have occupied space using alliance partners like LJP.
Uttar Pradesh
This was a phase where Congress had once again outperformed all other parties in 2009 by winning 7 out of 15 seats which is indicative of a latent “national vote” in this region once again as we say in the previous phase of 30th April. In fact, in just these two phases, Congress had won 66% of its seats from UP in 2009 and both these phases were home to urban Uttar Pradesh of the central region (the big cities of Lucknow, Allahabad and Kanpur etc.). This time, the “national vote” has gone to the BJP which is seen in the total meltdown of the Congress party.
This was also the phase where BSP was supposed to put up a challenge to the Modi juggernaut, but it failed in totality as it couldn’t even hold on to its core-vote of Dalits (especially the non-Jatavs) let alone accruing the additional vote of upper caste Brahmins and Muslims. In fact, BSP was not putting up any challenge against the BJP and it was the Samajwadis who were the runner’s up in this phase. We had a total sample-size of 2130 in UP spread across 18 assembly segments of 7 parliamentary seats of Uttar Pradesh for the May 7th polls and the resultant numbers where then extrapolated to our own social profile data based on the latest Census to add weightage accordingly.
Because BJP kept its core upper-caste vote almost overwhelmingly intact and because it also managed to get additional votes of other OBCs (including a section of Yadavs) and Dalits, the party has simply managed to outperform all other outfits in UP. The problem for other opposition parties is exactly the opposite, they have neither been able to hold on to their core votes (Dalits for BSP and OBCs for SP) nor have they managed to gain any traction in the additional non-core votes. Congress, which used to get bits of all the votes is now literally a bits and pieces player as it has seen a complete meltdown. Once again we see the same theme of a united Hindu vote and an almost disinterested Muslim vote in Uttar Pradesh. In terms of seat conversion, it is actually a relatively simpler exercise in this phase as what we did was use the Congress’s vote-to-seat conversion of last time and extrapolated the same to 2014 which gives BJP 2/3rd seats in this phase. Amethi, of course is a close call where Rahul Gandhi may yet emerge victorious due to superior booth management skills but as of now we are projecting it to the BJP just based on numbers.
Bihar
This is a state, unlike UP, where Muslims have probably found a rallying point in the form of RJD-Congress combine, but is it really stopping the BJP’s surge is really debatable. In the past the MY (Muslim-Yadav) combination would be almost unstoppable in Bihar, but what BJP has managed to do this time is bring in a large section of other OBCs along with its core vote of upper castes into one platform which has managed to equal the MY combo. What has added the edge to BJP’s vote-share is possibly the Dalit vote which could be the crucial differentiator in this state.
The last two phases had seen a surge of support to RJD-Congress combine which had given BJP and NDA a run for their money, but this time something is happening on the ground. Although we are taking this as a statistical aberration due to LJP’s strength in Hajipur (Ram Vilas Paswan’s constituency) and Samastipur (which we tracked on Wednesday) where Ram Vilas Paswan’s brother has some pockets of influence, there seems to be once again a significant section of Muslim voters who are voting for the NDA. This is a feature we observed in the first two phases too, but as polling progressed into Muslim dominated RJD strongholds, polarization became overtly evident. On the 7th May election once again that trend seems to have reversed as Muslims were seen to be returning back to the NDA.
It could well be possible that Muslim voters are lying about their electoral choice, but after taking various aspects into consideration, we are giving NDA about 20% of the Muslim vote in this phase. This is a risk that we are taking based on our own numbers and making a bold projection which goes against the conventional wisdom. May 7th phase has seen a trend reversal and we have spotted it in our numbers, let us see how far we have been successful in projecting this event.
Seemandhra
Seemandhra was a nightmare election to project on the 7th of May as it was a really neck-to-neck fight in a state that saw a huge turnout. One needs to be extremely cautious in reading the numbers from Seemandhra purely because of the turnout factor which may be indicating a sweep for one or the other party or combination while the actual data suggests a vertical split. In such a situation we are bravely projecting the Vote-Share numbers despite the caveat of the turnout as a factor. Some of the factors that played out in Seemandhra on 7th May that actually made this a cracker of a contest are themselves unique to 2014;
- Division of the state was a major issue which overshadowed all other factors, so Modi as a factor was almost non-evident in the overall picture of this truncated state. In fact, Seemandhra was the one state apart from probably Kerala where Modi didn’t make much of a difference
- The TDP-BJP alliance made a difference of possibly 4-5% swing in favour of the alliance although one cannot surely fathom whether it will help Naidu form a government here
- Polarization in the last few days among Muslim voters towards Jagan Reddy’s party did help YSRCP to some extent to overcome the momentum of TDP-BJP alliance
- Jagan managed to keep his vote-base of Reddys, lower classes and Muslims with no cross voting whatsoever in both LS as well as assembly polls unlike what we witnessed in Telangana. TDP-BJP did get an additional percent or two in the LS polls but it was more of “others” vote
- There was no cross-voting from Christians (believed to be close to 20%) who stuck to YSRCP
- Kapu consolidation was solidly behind TDP-BJP (roughly 59%) which helped the alliance to a large extent
- Although YSRCP scored a better vote-share in assembly polls in overall terms, this was skewed by the party’s much better performance in Rayalaseema whereas TDP-BJP has probably done better in the other regions
Seat conversion from this kind of vote-share projection is another nightmare so we are not projecting for the assembly polls and are sticking to LS polls only. This looks like a very close race for Seemandhra assembly like the Chhattisgarh election of last December wherein we decided to only do a vote-share projection and not hazard a guess as to seat-share.
Note: Andhra Pradesh is not one of our core states that we track and we depend on third party sources to derive numbers so we cannot fully vouch for the projections but with an error margin of 3% we can safely assume that these numbers should hold on May 16th. There is one caveat though, the high voter turnout could alter the dynamics of this state dramatically as there could be a silent vote that hasn’t been discovered in our surveys.
Overall Projections for May 7th
Related posts:
If that has to happen for real... I will donate my one day wages to 5fourty3 & buy a years subscription!
how many seats we can expect out of hose remaining 42? 23 at-least?--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
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Here is the Overall scenario(42 Seats Left to poll)
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