Indian options in Afghanistan: Checkmate or Gameon

[ramu]

In the last few days Afghanistan and India have shared concerns and have pledged to stay as good friends. How long will this be the case depends on the geopolitics of the region.

Interests:

Indians want a moderate and pro India regime in Afghanistan. It wants the people of Afghanistan to have access to a better life. This will result in better support to the ruling Government. The Indian markets would welcome imports from Afghanistan and would like the export if transit from India to Afghanistan is viable.

Afghanistan would like to move away from fundamental forces and embrace moderate outlook. Building a country is of top priority and India is best placed to execute large projects after China. India has committed an additional $ 500 million dollars to Afghanistan for various developmental works, taking the total Indian assistance to $2 billion. India is the sixth largest donor to Afghanistan.

Checkmate :

Will US decide to leave Afghanistan or is this just a dream of Pakistan! If US leaves.. will it be end game for India.

Game on :

If US stays and is Pro India, will it be advantage India. If US leaves but India ensures plurality and keeps Taliban at bay, that is a big IF.


Are Indian options diminishing with Obama making a run for the next elections by bringing back US forces. Will US leave this early when its job is unfinished? Is India throwing billions down the drain in Afghanistan given change is inevitable after US exit.


Your thoughts ....

 

[Conqueror]

You will be delusioned if you think America is able to exist another year in Afghanistan. Infect existing Afghanistan is the gift which Obama would give to Americans. They are surely loosing and surely desperate to widthdraw. American rage on Paksitan (before OBL incident) was nothing because of what they are earning in Afghanistan.

Also the moment Americans are out, the younger Indian brother Hamid Karzai would be history and the best Indian friends in Afghanistan will be the same Northern Alliance if Russia would be willing to back them again. Else you know.

 

[ramu]

Also the moment Americans are out, the younger Indian brother Hamid Karzai would be history and the best Indian friends in Afghanistan will be the same Northern Alliance if Russia would be willing to back them again. Else you know.

Russians hate Taliban. They will support current Government.

 

[Maritimer]

If the US pulls out of Afghanistan, it will only be after ensuring that all the pro-Pakistan terrorists (Mullah Omar, Haqqanis, Hekmatyar) are destroyed. That would leave Afghanistan in the hands of the former Northern Alliance, Pashtun Nationalists and some rehabilitated Taliban, who cannot be controlled by Pakistan.

Having said that, I feel the US is not going to leave Afghanistan any soon. They are setting up large military bases which seem to be of a permanent nature. There will be a troop reduction before Obama's re-election, but surely the US will not allow Afghanistan to become a sanctuary for elements that threaten world peace. Also, staying in Afghanistan fits into US long term geopolitical strategy of pressurizing Iran, containing China's influence in the region, exploiting the resources of central Asia and watching over Pakistan's nukes.

So, India does not have too much to lose in the game. Unlike the 1990's when Pakistan found 'strategic depth' during the Taliban regime, the world opinion has turned around since then.

My 2 cents.

 

[Khan_patriot]

.

Interests:

Indians want a moderate and pro India regime in Afghanistan. It wants the people of Afghanistan to have access to a better life. This will result in better support to the ruling Government. The Indian markets would welcome imports from Afghanistan and would like the export if transit from India to Afghanistan is viable.
Your thoughts ....

The US leaving Afghanistan and handing it over to the Indians is an Indian wet dream......and even if it eventually does which is bound to happen India knows nothing of Afghanistan and only seeks to isolate Pakistan from the Afghans cuz if India eventually forsees the collapse of Pakistan (which is another Indian fantasy) and thinks it will take over major portions of it, it knows that Afghanistan will serve as a seemingly unlimited supply of war hardened men who are going to pay back the favour for how we helped them against the soviets and I am sure they will help because the are Pathans who never forgive and never forgetP and plus the military can strategically retreat and launch a counter attack across the Western mountains which would spell disaster for the Indian public, Indian economy and Indian military and it too will have to give in eventually and if it doesn't it will have to face dis-integration in the long run.

To cut the story short India doesn't care about Afghans all it cares about is isolation of Pakistan and narrowing it geopolitical and strategic spectrum along its western border..........

 

[roadrunner]

The Northern Alliance are not moderate.

On very few occasions have such a conglomerate of scumbags been assembled under one group (massoud being the obvious example).

Just allow power sharing/rotation during a transitional period in Afghanistan, and prevent any single warlord from stealing the seat by being elected through a council of wise men, or whatever other scheme rabbani might come up with this time.

After this just let Afghans choose their government by elected representatives that resemble the ethnic makeup of Afghanistan.