Its confusing, why in the world would the Indian armed forces want to increase the number of types they operate when the worldwide trend is to reduce and procure common aircraft?
IAC1 will be STOBAR so the best aircraft to continue with the trend is the Mig-29K.(or perhaps challenge the Ruskies with a Mig-35K??). do the migs lack a capability that the others offer?
Moreover.. adapting the SH or Rafale M to a STOBAR carrier seems pointless.. and the other competitors have not yet tested any carrier capable designs.
Coming to IAC 2 which is supposedly CATOBAR.. the IN can simply purchase the Rafale M outright.. allowing another bonus in commonality in both logistics and training with the IAF.. perhaps with exchange pilots.
The N-LCA will play the role of the light interceptor and attack on these ships.. how many?To accommodate the N-LCA means crossing the 100 aircraft mark(will the IAF's ego be ready to accept this?).
As of now, the MiG-29 is the decided factor in the Indian Navy's aviation plans, the rest are only plans or conceptual ideas; including N-LCA.
Within the planned future, IN will operate STOBAR Carriers. Intensive discussions (internal and external) have taken place regarding CATOBAR Carriers but it does not seem to be firmed up yet. IN is distinctly looking for E-MALS tech for CATOBAR operations, while its only Steam CAT tech is presently forthcoming from the US. This E-MALS/ Steam CAT debate is relevant to the fact that IN has decided to use GT propulsion for the projected Carriers. IN seems to have 2 choices available for CATOBAR operated Carriers:
a. E-MALS if made available by the USA.
b. develop E-MALS indigenously or in co-operation with the Russians.
Both options are being worked on. The third option is to again use Steam CAT on a N-propelled Carrier for CATOBAR. This is a distinct possibility in light of the INS ARIHANT experience.
However, all that depends on how IN views Carriers in its long-term Strategic Vision. As I see it, India is not looking towards a very large Carrier fleet and is not looking at Mega-Carriers either. The Indian thinking is not towards world-wide force projection, but at area domination. So mid-sized Carriers are sufficient to the purpose, to act as nucleii of Task Forces.
Therefore the Rafale-M enters the picture if (and only if) a CATOBAR Carrier is decided upon. Obviously, it will be very easy to induct and operate given that the Rafale will already in operation with the IAF. According to me, this (projected) factor was also ticked off in a check-box while arriving at the Rafale choice for the MMRCA competition. And to consider any other aircraft viz. Super Hornet, Sea Gripen or even F-35 (IMO)etc. is just inconceivable. The IN/MoD seems to have worked out all the contingency plans for the projected Carrier fleet of max. 4 Carriers.
Now about the last (esp underlined) part. IAF has ceased to control IN Aviation plans. That process was nearly done when LRMR air assets passed in to control of the IN. Now its absolutely complete.