INDIAN EXPECTATIONS FOR THE PAC-2 BRIEFING:
C O N F I D E N T I A L NEW DELHI 000708
SIPDIS
E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/27/2015
TAGS: PREL PGOV MASS IN NSSP
SUBJECT: INDIAN EXPECTATIONS FOR THE PAC-2 BRIEFING
Classified By: DCM Robert O. Blake, Jr., for Reasons 1.4 (B, D)
¶1. (C) The classified briefing on the Patriot PAC-2 missile
defense (MD) system, currently scheduled for February 22 or
23, has generated a great deal of interest within the Indian
government, with senior GOI officials hopeful that this will
be the beginning of a broader MD relationship with the US.
GOI officials who are expected to attend the briefing include
MEA A/S Meera Shankar, MOD J/S Gautam Mukhopadhaya, as well
as senior Army, Air Force, DRDO, and Acquisition reps. We
have also heard expressions of interest from the PMO --
although NSA Narayanan, unlike his predecessor Mani Dixit,
has not yet pronounced himself in favor of the US-India MD
relationship. As the GOI is only in the initial stages of
formulating its missile defense doctrine, government and
military representatives at the meeting may raise policy
questions about MD beyond the scope of the technical
capabilities of the PAC-2. Post welcomes the participation
of senior USG officials who might be able to address such
policy questions should they arise.
¶2. (C) This PAC-2 briefing comes in the context of an
underdeveloped military sales relationship that we are now
seeking seriously to energize. Getting a long sought-after
breakthrough military sale -- whether a Patriot or any other
major platform -- will be an uphill campaign. In a recent
interview in New Delhi's "National Review," Defense Minister
Mukherjee summarized some of India's complaints about
military procurements from the US, "We have problems buying
arms from you because your laws are very strict. At any
point you may have to clamp sanctions on us." In this
context, we can not afford to be ambivalent in the message we
send on the PAC-2 system, since any sign of US wavering will
be seized on by those who remain skeptical of US reliability.
Key in this regard will be the US message that the PAC-2
offer is a step toward PAC-3, which is what India ultimately
hopes to purchase.
MULFORD
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INDIA on Pakistan missile test:
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 NEW DELHI 002879
DEPARTMENT FOR SA/INS
LONDON FOR TUELLER
RABAT FOR USREY
E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/07/03
TAGS: PARM MARR PGOV PREL IN
SUBJECT: INDIAN REACTION TO PAKISTAN'S MISSILE TEST
REF: ISLAMABAD 2617
CLASSIFIED CONFIDENTIAL BY NEW DELHI POLITICAL
COUNSELOR ERIC TUNIS, REASON 1.5 (D).
¶1. (C) SUMMARY: INDIAN OFFICIAL REACTION TO
PAKISTAN'S RECENT FLIGHT TEST OF THE GHAURI BALLISTIC
MISSILE (REFTEL) HAS BEEN MEASURED THUS FAR. THE NEWS
OF THE PAKISTANI MISSILE TEST RAN SECOND TO THE
CORONATION OF SONIA GANDHI AS THE NEW LEADER OF THE
CONGRESS PARTY IN MOST NEWSPAPERS ON APRIL 7. DEFENSE
MINISTER GEORGE FERNANDES GAVE A COOL AND DELIBERATE
STATEMENT TO A PRESS CONFERENCE IN NEW DELHI ON THE
EVENING OF APRIL 6, NOTING THAT INDIA HAD PRIOR
INFORMATION OF THE TEST. FERNANDES DREW A DISTINCTION
BETWEEN TEST FIRING OF THE MISSILE AND PRODUCTION, BUT
HE AVOIDED ANY COMMENT ON INDIA'S AGNI MISSILE PROGRAM.
THE DIRECTOR FOR DISARMAMENT AND SECURITY AFFAIRS
(DISA) IN THE MINISTRY OF EXTERNAL AFFAIRS CONFIRMED
THAT THERE HAD BEEN A RECENT SENIOR INTERAGENCY MEETING
TO DISCUSS INDIA'S RESPONSE TO THE MISSILE TEST. END
SUMMARY
PROMINENT COVERAGE--BUT RELATIVELY MILD REACTION
--------------------------------------------- ---
¶2. (U) INDIAN NEWSPAPERS AND TELEVISION PROVIDED
EXTENSIVE BUT NOT INFLAMMATORY COVERAGE OF THE RECENT
TEST OF PAKISTAN'S GHAURI BALLISTIC MISSILE. MOST OF
THE PRESS STORIES DREW HEAVILY FROM INFORMATION
RELEASED PUBLICLY BY PAKISTAN'S FOREIGN MINISTRY AS
WELL AS THEIR OWN DECIDEDLY INDIAN ACCOUNT OF FACTS,
SUCH AS THE TIMES OF INDIA CLAIM THAT THE TEST WAS
CARRIED OUT AT THE KAHUTA NUCLEAR RESEARCH LABORATORY.
THIS EVENT HAS PROVIDED ANOTHER FORUM FOR PROMINENT
HAWKS IN THE MEDIA--SUCH AS IDSA'S DIRECTOR JASJIT
SINGH--TO RENEW CALLS FOR INDIA'S DEVELOPMENT OF THE
AGNI BALLISTIC MISSILE SYSTEM. OTHER COMMENTATORS HAVE
ALSO PORTRAYED THE GHAURI MISSILE TEST AS CONCLUSIVE
PROOF THAT THE U.S. HAS FAILED TO STOP COOPERATION
BETWEEN CHINA AND PAKISTAN IN BALLISTIC MISSILE
TECHNOLOGY. INDEED, MUCH OF THE INDIAN PUBLIC AND
PRIVATE THINKING SEEMS TO REFLECT THE INHERENT DISDAIN
FOR PAKISTAN'S SCIENTIFIC COMMUNITY, OF WHICH BRAHMIN
HINDUS ARE CONVINCED COULD NOT PRODUCE SUCH A MISSILE
INDEPENDENTLY.
¶3. (U) DEFENSE MINISTER GEORGE FERNANDES WAS THE
GOI'S MAIN SPOKESMAN FOR THE INDIAN GOVERNMENT ON THIS
ISSUE. IN A PRESS CONFERENCE APRIL 6, HE MADE THE
FOLLOWING POINTS:
-- INDIA'S OWN MISSILE PROGRAM IS CONTINUING.
PRITHVI MISSILES ARE CAPABLE OF REACHING ANYWHERE IN
PAKISTAN;
-- INDIA HAD PRIOR WARNING THAT ISLAMABAD HAD BEEN
PREPARING TO TEST A MEDIUM-RANGE MISSILE; HE DESCRIBED
THE TEST AS NOT UNEXPECTED BUT OF A SERIOUS NATURE,
ALTHOUGH INDIA AND PAKISTAN ARE NOT IN A WAR-LIKE
SITUATION;
-- THERE IS A DISTINCTION BETWEEN TESTING AND
PRODUCTION; AND
-- IT IS UP TO THE UNITED STATES TO FIND OUT WHAT
HAPPENED IN SINO-PAKISTANI MISSILE COOPERATION DESPITE
THE EXISTENCE OF MULTILATERAL CONTROL REGIMES.
SOME INSIGHTS FROM MEA
----------------------
¶4. (C) POLOFF MET WITH AJIT KUMAR, DIRECTOR FOR
DISARMAMENT AND INTERNATIONAL SECURITY AFFAIRS IN THE
MINISTRY FOR EXTERNAL AFFAIRS, ON APRIL 7 (SEE SEPTEL
FOR A DISCUSSION OF CWC ISSUES). KUMAR CONFIRMED THAT
SENIOR INDIAN OFFICIALS FROM SEVERAL MINISTRIES HAD MET
SEVERAL DAYS AGO TO CONSIDER THE SITUATION REGARDING
THE GHAURI MISSILE TEST. KUMAR OPINED THAT FERNANDES
WAS SELECTED TO SPEAK ON BEHALF OF THE INDIAN
GOVERNMENT BY THIS GROUP; MEA DID NOT INTEND TO MAKE
ANY STATEMENT ON THE MATTER. NOT SURPRISINGLY, KUMAR
AGREED THAT THE MISSILE ISSUE WAS RIPE FOR DISCUSSION
IN AN INDO-PAKISTANI DIALOGUE, BUT HE ACKNOWLEDGED THAT
THERE HAD BEEN NO SUBSTANTIVE DISCUSSION OF SECURITY
ISSUES AS THE TWO SIDES REMAINED DEAD-LOCKED OVER THE
PROCEDURAL LOGJAM OF ADDRESSING KASHMIR.
COMMENT
-------
¶5. (C) IN RESPONDING TO THE PAKISTANI MISSILE TEST, WE
SUSPECT THE INDIANS WILL ALLOW ACTIONS TO SPEAK LOUDER
THAN WORDS, WITH AN AGNI MISSILE TEST IN THE NEAR
FUTURE. IT IS WORTH RECALLING COMMITMENTS BY PREVIOUS
INDIAN GOVERNMENTS THAT THE AGNI PROGRAM REMAINED A
HIGH PRIORITY, AND THAT THE INDIANS HAVE BEEN MULLING
OVER A DECISION TO TEST THE AGNI FOR SOME TIME NOW.
INDEED, JASJIT SINGH TOLD US THAT HE MADE ONE MORE RUN
AT PUSHING FOR AN AGNI TEST DURING GUJRAL'S FINAL WEEKS
IN OFFICE. THIS BJP-LED GOVERNMENT HAS MADE DEFENSE A
PROMINENT ISSUE IN ITS AGENDA AND SEVERAL OF ITS
"SECURITY EXPERTS" HAVE CALLED FOR GREATER DEVELOPMENT
OF LONGER RANGE BALLISTIC MISSILES TO ADDRESS THE
PERCEIVED CHINA THREAT. THE DEFENSE MINISTER'S
COMMENTS THAT INDIA CAN TARGET ALL OF PAKISTAN WITH
PRITHVI MISSILES CERTAINLY BOLSTERS ISLAMABAD'S BELIEF
THAT IT NEEDS LONGER RANGE MISSILES TO KEEP UP WITH ITS
SOUTH ASIAN NEIGHBOR. THE UPCOMING VISITS OF SENIOR
U.S. OFFICIALS WILL PRESENT A USEFUL OPPORTUNITY TO
URGE RESTRAINT WITH BOTH SIDES, ALTHOUGH NEW DELHI
ALMOST CERTAINLY WILL CONTINUE TO PORTRAY ITS MISSILE
PROGRAMS AS A NECESSARY RESPONSE TO THE CHINA THREAT.
CELESTE
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are ready to hit Moon and star.
