Indian General Elections - 2014

[Bang Galore]

I would like you to make your stand clear.

I am not getting DEFENSIVE, i am just giving the India Today (a credible source) predictions.

If you have any other source which shows that UPA as the largest alliance, feel free to post.

Thank You.

The NDA tally is not evidence of the BJP picking up support. Not sure Karnataka has been factored in. I still would like to see a state by state break up. I pointed out a few problems in the break up I gave.

In case you haven't been following my posts, I have consistently held that both the Congress & the BJP are going to lose seats, the Congress probably more than the BJP (However Congress starts at a higher no. when compared to the BJP). The loss of the Congress is not going to be a BJP gain (for the most part) and will be picked up by 3rd parties. Might lead to a situation where a 3rd front (with Congress support ?) may end up forming the government which I believe would be a big disaster for India.

It is not always either BJP or Congress, not a big fan of either. I would still pick either to keep the hotchpotch 3rd front out but as I see it, very difficult for the BJP & somewhat difficult for the Congress to make up the ground.

 

[shivgan3]

BJP is has chance to do some magic in UP with the trio Uma, Modi and Varun working together and also in CPB.
But the amoung of Minority votes on UP combined with Yadav is not easy to break.

In Bihar BJP is going alone (90% chances) and lossing there. WB the minorities votes can never let BJP win with self hating hindus again voting for local parties. M votes count to over 30% in UP, Bihar WB and that it the reason BJP cannot win there unless it unites entire fragmented Hindu votes (no catalyst event). For Hindus BJP is a too late, too small, too slow party as Hindus are programmed to be loosers and self hating by the Islamic conquest (800 yrs) and Khangres (100 years).

Maharashtra BJP can win if it brings two brother together which is not happening.

BJP LS ticket is expensive than Congress and they are going to tickets based on auction so chances are less that good people getting tickets. But since we have Modi and rajnath working together I have some hope. BJP faces internal threats from Advani, Sushma, Arun and other people who have hijacked the Hindu party. This election cannot be won without some catalyst event.

The reason for sickularism is that M votes are strong, directional, consolidated, punctual, consistant and they are around 28% when half of Hindus don't vote. This 28% effect magnifies in UP Bihar WB where hindus dont vote or vote in a fragmented way.

Congress owns sensus, CBI, IB and RAW so chances to BJP winning is very less without a catalayst event.

 

[arp2041]

In case you haven't been following my posts, I have consistently held that both the Congress & the BJP are going to lose seats, the Congress probably more than the BJP. The loss of the Congress is not going to be a BJP gain (for the most part) and will be picked up by 3rd parties. Might lead to a situation where a 3rd front (with Congress support ?) may end up forming the government which I believe would be a big disaster for India.

It is not always either BJP or Congress, not a big fan of either. I would pick either to keep the hotchpotch 3rd front out but as I see it, very difficult for the BJP & somewhat difficult for the Congress to make up the ground.

Believe Me, there is no third front, nor it will ever get power in 21st century India.

It's a DISASTER for an emerging country like India.

I would like NDA to win but if i have to make a choice b/w UPA & third front, i'll happily chose the first.

You haven't noticed that Indian Voters have become more MATURE with time.

Just a HUNCH, UPA loses will translate into NDA gains, as for Third Front is concerned - It's just a mirage.

+ You said that you don't like either, so what do you want a Third Front?? Really?? (just a genuine question)

+ I am not saying that BJP isn't bad, just that we have LIMITED CHOICES.

 

[Infinity]

Guys, Let's put an end to the Karnataka Assembly elections Chapter.

BJP is no doubt Losing the assembly elections come this may.

And for this, no one else but they themselves have to blame.

I am not sure of the LS elections in Karnataka though.

So, there is no sense of making ASSUMPTIONS here.

Can we move on PLEASE??

If BJP lose Karnataka assembly elections & Congress wins................then expect the Lok Sabha elections before December..........Congress will try to Cash Karnataka win ....

 

[Infinity]

Under Karnatak BJP not a single riot.
So in Gujarat.

So in Kerala & Tamil Nadu.................without BJP

 

[Bang Galore]

It's a DISASTER for an emerging country like India.

I agree.

Just a HUNCH, UPA loses will translate into NDA gains, as for Third Front is concerned - It's just a mirage.

Hunches may be good but need to be backed by solid evidence. I gave a state by state breakup of the main areas & where do you think a major congress loss will be a BJP gain? Andhra Pradesh? (most Cong losses to the BJP will be offset by BJP losses to Congress)

+ You said that you don't like either, so what do you want a Third Front?? Really?? (just a genuine question)

I said I was no fan of either but I also said that I would prefer any one of them to a 3rd front.

+ I am not saying that BJP isn't bad, just that we have LIMITED CHOICES.

We may have limited choice but people in India simply don't vote in the manner you want. It is not like AP voters will vote for Jagan Reddy keeping in mind the national picture. Nor in Orissa, WB, U.P. etc.

Nobody votes for the 3rd front. The 3rd front may happen because of the way people vote against the main parties, it is not a direct choice of anybody. Indian national elections have simply become an aggregate of the various state elections. Which is way all this Hullabaloo about the central government is misplaced, people simply vote on how they are feeling against the state governments that are there. Very rarely do people vote on central government issues even in a national election.

 

[Android]

Last week I was in Bengal and there I found out Majority of people wanted narendra modi to become PM but still they say they will vote for either TMC or CPM I was like WTF is wrong with these people

 

[arp2041]

Hunches may be good but need to be backed by solid evidence. I gave a state by state breakup of the main areas & where do you think a major congress loss will be a BJP gain? Andhra Pradesh? (most Cong losses to the BJP will be offset by BJP losses to Congress)

EXACTLY, same goes with you, you were making just ASSUMPTIONS in your earlier posts of total BJP seat, but i provided an evidence (solid or not).

 

[Ki[[er1]

Not sure what the point is. Are you suggesting that the new voters will vote BJP? I'm not at all sure about that.

Not sure to whom they will vote but as most of them are North Indian so I hope they will vote for BJP.

 

[Bang Galore]

EXACTLY, same goes with you, you were making just ASSUMPTIONS in your earlier posts of total BJP seat, but i provided an evidence (solid or not).

You are refusing to engage. Where do you think the BJP will win seats & how many? I only gave figures of what the states look like, nowhere did I suggest a definitive outcome. Let us see you point out specifics instead of hiding behind generalities. You believe the BJP can win, I'm asking you to show me how & where.


We all guess, some guesses rely on some facts to jump to & some work independent of that. I'm willing to be convinced if you want to try. State by state can be discussed with probable results & maybe we can have a serious discussion without indulging in innuendo.

 

[Ki[[er1]

Dude it's their habit, they are perpetually coming up with scenarios where their pet wants are played out. And when it doesn't happen on ground, they blame the people/stupidity/ pseudo secularism and god knows whatnot. This process is endless. Someone was even trying to prove to me that in the LS elections BJP will have huge windfalls in kerala. When i pointed out that BJP has no presence there, he came out with theories on how that will happen. There are people who are also dreaming that making Modi will create a windfall in UP.

Please do not find conspiracy everywhere. . I am not making any assumption here. I am in Bangalore from last two year. I have helped many of my colleague for Voter registration. As I said earlier I am not sure to whom they are going to vote but as most of them are North Indian so I am assuming that most of share will go to BJP.

 

[KRAIT]

What about Rajasthan who is most likely to win there @KRAIT;

@arp2041 may be right. But I still think there might be a surprise.

 

[Rangila]

ಚುನಾವಣೆ : ಪ್ರಜಾಪ್ರà²*ುತ್ವದ ಜೀವನಾಡಿ; ಜಾಗೃತ ಮತದಾರನಿಗಷ್ಟೇ ಕ್ರಾಂತಿ ಸಾಧ್ಯ! | Vishwa Samvada Kendra

 

[arp2041]

You are refusing to engage. Where do you think the BJP will win seats & how many? I only gave figures of what the states look like, nowhere did I suggest a definitive outcome. Let us see you point out specifics instead of hiding behind generalities. You believe the BJP can win, I'm asking you to show me how & where.


We all guess, some guesses rely on some facts to jump to & some work independent of that. I'm willing to be convinced if you want to try. State by state can be discussed with probable results & maybe we can have a serious discussion without indulging in innuendo.

Buddy, sorry can't post it now, but will surely reply by night.

Again Myne will be Assumptions, so if you have made up your mind beforehand, i don't think my Post will make any relevance/difference.

 

[Rangila]

Hajj subsidy removed by Supreme Court.