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Great Davos video, really enjoyed Roubeini's input....he is very right about irrigation, human capital development being the ways forward for India. They have always been the way forward and are NOT reliant on global scenario etc. I am hoping for a massive push this year in these sectors along with MSME focus to ensure good transfer of dividends that are happening from the comprehensive industrial, banking, labour and continued tax reform that is happening over time.

Here is a welcome news for everyone:

In 2015: Total FDI flows to India nearly doubled, reaching an estimated US$59 billion. Measures taken by the government to improve the investment climate have had an impact. (This is taken right from the report on page 4).

http://unctad.org/en/PublicationsLibrary/webdiaeia2016d1_en.pdf

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Let us hope the trend remains this way for several more years. I have a feeling we will surpass Singapore and UK in FDI this year and get to 70 billion for 2016 at least (hopefully more than 80 billion)....given India is one of the few major bright growth spots in the global economy.

If the absolute jump can be maintained at least : 34 billion in 2014, 59 billion in 2015....hopefully 2016 will be around 85 billion.

The days of being stuck in the 20 - 30 billion range are hopefully long over now (finally!).

To put 59 billion in perspective, it will be an increase of about 23% of our overall FDI stock in just one year.

But does the FDI does convert into tangible benefits for local populace? It does sure help the govt in maintaining an dollar cushion. Because the only way HK or Singapore can absorb so much FDI is Banking sectors or just cash or just buying stakes in company.
For a large nation like India, we need more than one Singapore sized city economy. But overall its less. If FDI is in manufacturing, particularly Electronics in which we are very poor (In Chennai, there is only one MSME, who can custom designed PCB's, with bare PCB's imported from one company from Hosur in whole of TN :o:) I am not impressed. Its just many are investing in Stocks or buying stakes. Investing billions into Flipkart or Snapdeal is also nothing as a whole.

Creating Jobs is more important and is related to HDI. I simply hope more industry oriented FDI like the one we have in Automobiles.
 
But does the FDI does convert into tangible benefits for local populace? It does sure help the govt in maintaining an dollar cushion. Because the only way HK or Singapore can absorb so much FDI is Banking sectors or just cash or just buying stakes in company.
For a large nation like India, we need more than one Singapore sized city economy. But overall its less. If FDI is in manufacturing, particularly Electronics in which we are very poor (In Chennai, there is only one MSME, who can custom designed PCB's, with bare PCB's imported from one company from Hosur in whole of TN :o:) I am not impressed. Its just many are investing in Stocks or buying stakes. Investing billions into Flipkart or Snapdeal is also nothing as a whole.

Creating Jobs is more important and is related to HDI. I simply hope more industry oriented FDI like the one we have in Automobiles.

Yes it will have to be backed up by better quality and especially quantity of skill provision to labour force. Otherwise it will create bubbles. But good news is that skill provision has doubled as well from UPA years....so even if we assume its the same quality of FDI as before, there should be enough capex for relevant industries.

We will need to wait for a few more years of data to gleam what exactly the quality level is of the FDI from the sustainable GDP that comes from the investment maturing and the jobs it provides. Basically we have to wait for this FDI to be processed and "digested".

But for now getting more is always generally a good thing, given how much we still need per capita on long term basis.
 
@Nilgiri What do you think about the performance of the government in disinvestment sector ?
I am highly disappointed with the government on that front.
 
@Nilgiri What do you think about the performance of the government in disinvestment sector ?
I am highly disappointed with the government on that front.

The much reduced oil price has taken off pressure from this unfortunately (but also contributed to the reason why there is delay...read below).

That in itself is not bad (BJP still wanted to do it)....but most of the eternal loss making PSUs are commodity related....so govt will be losing tons of money by selling them off now given commodity crash. So opportunity cost from potential rebound of commodity prices has to be taken on board....so its fine if they delay till better price is guaranteed for the assets.

But just like falling exports show just one side of the story (Balance of payments is good since imports have fallen too)....the small privatisation so far is not necessarily bad if we take into context NDA has improved overall fiscal scenario (subsidy rationalisation and lowering, tax reform, spending cuts). i.e if they were relying on just disinvestment as their platform of fiscal discipline....then we are in big trouble....but now its just more of a question mark since they have a large broad strategy (unlike UPA). If commodities recover and they sell off these PSUs then, overall its a good thing they have done. If they just sit on it even if this happens, then we know they are not too different from UPA in this sector.

Might be useful:

Modi’s massive disinvestment plan is plagued by unrealistic ambitions and terrible luck - Quartz
 
India is new battlefield for Chinese and American investors
NEW DELHI: When Nasdaq-listed MakeMyTrip, one of Indian internet first success stories, was looking to build a war chest recently, several events were playing out in parallel.

Rival online travel agency Goibibo, backed by the deep-pocketed South African media group Naspers, were discounting heavily and budget hotels aggregator Oyo Rooms was on the verge of overtaking the 16-year-old company's valuation. MakeMyTrip did something unconventional: It looked eastward to its larger peer in China instead of hitting up private equity funds in the West.

Last month, the company announced a $180-million ( Rs 1223.1 cr) investment from China's largest online travel firm Ctrip. "We believe MakeMyTrip and Ctrip can help each other to remain leaders in our respective markets by sharing wisdom and perhaps a few battle scars as well-earned along the way," MakeMyTrip's CEO Deep Kalra said on an analyst call on January 29. Given that MakeMyTrip is valued at about $645 million and Ctrip at $15 billion, it is clear who will be the bigger brother in this relationship.
india-is-new-battlefield-for-chinese-and-american-investors.jpg

Abhishek Bansal, founder of hyper-local logistics startup Shadowfax, was in China for a week in November to meet investors and understand how the online-tooffline market had evolved there. "Chinese investors have seen market trends and potential in O2O, so the confidence they show about it is much different as compared to Silicon Valley," said Bansal, 26, who previously worked in China as a consultant for about a year.

Both decisions underline the increasing importance of Chinese companies and the yuan—even if it's depreciating— to the Indian internet and technology ecosystem, which until now has been dominated by American dollars. (1 yuan is Rs 10.4) In a new-age revival of sorts of ancient trade relations between the two neighbours, Chinese internet giants Baidu, Alibaba and Tencent—collectively known as BAT—have been aggressively scouting in India the past year for startups to invest in.
india-is-new-battlefield-for-chinese-and-american-investors.jpg

Tencent and Alibaba have started investing, and Baidu is searching for deals. On the surface, a theme of Indo-China brotherhood is playing out across India's largest internet segments: Online retail (Foxconn and Alibaba Group have invested in Snapdeal), cab-hailing (Ola is a partner in Didi Kuaidi's global efforts targeting Uber) and digital wallet (Alipay has invested in Paytm).

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The underlying theme, though, is more likely that of India being employed as a battleground for Chinese and American internet companies, according to some industry experts. "It's good that the Chinese are here. We see them as potential future acquirers of our portfolio companies," said TC Meenakshisundaram, managing director at IDG Ventures India, which has an affiliate in China. "Whether an (Indian) company will win, a US company will win, or a China-backed Indian company will win is yet to be seen." Sequoia Capital, Matrix Partners India, Accel Partners and SAIF Partners, too, have China affiliates. Investors at these firms keep tabs on what business models work in China before deciding on backing local versions. Sequoia Capital invested in logistics startup RoadRunnr last year after seeing the success of a similar portfolio company in China, Dada, which is now valued at over $1 billion.

"Increasingly, we are looking at China rather than the US (for comparable companies). Generally, pattern recognition is very important for investors," said Sasha Mirchandani, founder of early-stage investment firm Kae Capital. Indian entrepreneurs find Chinese strategic investors steady and detail oriented.

That's unlike American and Japanese investors who poured billions of dollars into Indian online retailers after Alibaba's blockbuster IPO in 2014, expecting similar mega returns given the parallels in the demographics of the two Asian economic giants, but that strategy is threatening to backfire in many cases. Also, the nature of Chinese capital flowing into Indian internet companies is more strategic as compared to a large chunk of American dollars that come as financial investments in billion-dollar companies like Flipkart and Ola.

"The VCs in China are not coming to India. It is the large conglomerates that are coming here. They have the knowledge of building very successful consumer businesses, something that no VC can give," said Sanat Rao, M&A adviser at software product think tank iSPIRT. This is different from US companies like Uber and Amazon that are looking to topple local rivals, and Facebook and Google that are eyeing more advertising dollars from their growing internet base in India with direct operations in the country.

Chinese internet companies are not buying majority stakes in Indian companies or setting up direct operations because of possible political ramifications, according to several experts, given the decades-long fractious relations between the two countries. Venture capital firms said that with growth slowing in China, there's potential for not only strategic interest but also for investment from Chinese family offices to flow into India.

Praveen Chakravarty, a fellow in political economy at IDFC Institute, said many technology and internet companies tend to be natural monopolies with a winner-takes-all structure, and so the Indian government should keep watch on how much commerce is being driven by Indian internet companies backed or controlled by Chinese strategic investors. "Monopolies are generally bad from a market perspective, and there will be larger geo-political implications if monopolies are seen to be controlled by vested interests," said Chakravarty, also a co-founder of Mumbai Angels and one of India's earliest angel investors.

Some mid-sized Chinese companies have found a strong customer base in India and are setting up direct operations in the country. "India is the biggest growth engine for the next 5 years. We want to make friends here," said Alex Yao, senior vice president at Chinese mobile internet firm Cheetah Mobile.

Expanding partnerships with original equipment makers in India, investing in local companies and striking content partnership deals here are key priorities, he said. The firm, which has invested in domestic wearable fitness startup GOQii, plans to establish an investment team in India.

Its Chinese peer, APUS Group, has also outlined plans to invest Rs 300 crore in Indian startups. Branded Chinese consumer electronics makers are not far behind. Leshi Internet Information and Technology, also called Letv, is one of the largest video companies in China. It recently tied up with India's Yupp TV and B4U Music and launched its smartphone exclusively on Flipkart for the domestic market.

The company has defined seven sub-ecosystems—mobile, TV, e-vehicles, sports, music, content, internet finance— to be replicated in India. However, time will tell if Indian startups will only dance to tune of the Chinese dragons, or do more to stay relevant in the Indian market.
 
Biggest issue the govt is focusing on now is the NPA + bad loans. They should have done this last year itself....now Rajan has put enough sufficient pressure again, through his good personal relation with Modi and I am expecting some very strongly, directed capital injection and policy soon.

Only with this can the credit crunch that UPA (+ the abhorrent mess they left the banking sector in) created and made worse be reversed.
 
Abu Dhabi Is Going To Help India Build Some Of The Best Roads In The World!

Abu Dhabi Is Going To Help India Build Some Of The Best Roads In The World!

In first-of-its kind initiative, Abu Dhabi is keen on investing Rs 35,000 crore on 50 Indian highway projects.

uae23%20700_1455264374.jpg


maluti.webs


The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority (ADIA) wants to take up the projects on a toll-operate-transfer (TOT) basis, under which the roads already built by the National Highways Authority of India (NHAI) are awarded to the private sector in lieu of an upfront fee.

A senior roads ministry official told ET, "Discussions are still on (over) whether these projects will be awarded in a portfolio or should every project be awarded separately. The upfront fee (that the) private partner pays will be calculated on the future toll collection projections."

The proposal is likely to come up during Abu Dhabi crown prince Sheikh Mohammed bin Zayed-Al-Nahyan's India visit.

The Prime Minister Narendra Modi-led Indian government wants to boost investment in the sector. Roads and Transport Minister Nitin Gadkari said his ministry is targeting 10,000 kilometres in the current fiscal. The Indian government is trying various models to inject private investment in road projects.
 
Govt approves Rs 34,000-cr road projects in Feb; Rs 6k-cr today | The Financial Express

Govt approves Rs 34,000-cr road projects in Feb; Rs 6k-cr today
Government today approved eight highway projects worth Rs 6,000 crore for six states - Punjab, Jharkhand, Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan, Himachal Pradesh and Odisha.

Government today approved eight highway projects worth Rs 6,000 crore for six states – Punjab, Jharkhand, Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan, Himachal Pradesh and Odisha.

With today’s approval, the number of projects cleared by Road Transport and Highways Ministry this month so far has swelled to 37, entailing a total investment of about Rs 34,000 crore.

“The Ministry has approved eight projects with a total length of about 350 kms and aggregate total project cost of Rs 6,000 crore,” Road Transport and Highways Secretary Sanjay Mitra said.

Of these, six will be implemented in EPC (engineering, procurement and construction) mode and two in hybrid annuity mode, he said.

The projects approved today include construction of partially access controlled four-lane elevated highway between Samrala Chowk to Ludhiana Municipal limit on NH 95 in Punjab on hybrid annuity mode to be executed at a cost of Rs 910 crore.

Another project for Punjab pertains to four-lane Laddowal Bypass (linking NH 95 WITH NH 1 via Laddowal seed farm at Ludhiana) under NHDP on hybrid annuity mode at a cost of Rs 444 crore.

Two projects approved for Jharkhand today include four/two laning with paved shoulder of Govindpur Chas-West Bengal border section of NH 32 on EPC mode at Rs 946 crore and four-laning of Barhi-Hazaribag section of NH 33 on EPC mode at a cost of Rs 700 crore.

A Rs 302 crore project was approved for Madhya Pradesh for balance work of 2 lane with paved shoulder of Bhopal to Sanchi section of NH 86.

Three more projects — one each for Rajasthan, Himachal Pradesh and Odisha — were approved today at a cost of Rs 396 crore, Rs 887 crore and Rs 1,369 crore for NH 116, NH 22 and NH 23 stretches, respectively.

No clearance is required for approval of these projects as their construction cost is less than Rs 1,000 crore, the limit fixed by the government recently for award of projects by the Road Transport and Highways Ministry.

The government plans to award most of these projects within this fiscal.

The government has a target of awarding road contracts of 10,000 kms for this fiscal and it has so far awarded 7,677 kms.

It has already set a target to increase the length of National Highways to 2 lakh kms from the existing 96,000 kms.

Last week, the Ministry had approved 13 projects worth Rs 10,300 crore that included five projects by National Highways Authority of India (NHAI) and eight projects by the Ministry.

As many as 18 projects worth Rs 17,000 crore for building about 1,000 kms of highways, including nine on the recently approved hybrid annuity mode, were approved in a meeting, chaired by Mitra, earlier this month.

No Cabinet approval is required for the projects cleared this month as the government, in a bid to fast-track highways projects, had recently empowered Road Transport and Highways Ministry to approve projects with civil construction cost up to Rs 1,000 crore.

It has made it clear that civil construction cost would be segregated from capital cost of projects.

This was done to reduce time as multiple stages of examination and appraisal of the same project by different Ministry/Department/Committees caused delays in award of National Highways projects.

Taking note of such difficulties and with a view to minimise levels of decision making, the CCEA has empowered the Ministry of Road Transport and Highways to decide on the change in the mode of delivery of individual NH projects.

The Cabinet had last month approved hybrid annuity model for building roads to fast-track highway projects, revive the Public-Private-Partnership (PPP) mode and attract more investments in the sector.

Under this model, the government provides 40 per cent of the project cost to the developer while remaining 60 per cent investment has to be made by the developer.

Road Transport and Highways Minister Nitin Gadkari had recently said, “No one (private players) was ready to participate in the PPP-based projects as they had lost faith (in the previous government).

“However, to encourage private participation, we have also introduced a hybrid model, where we will share the risk with them,” he had said, adding that majority of land acquisition has been done for all these projects.
 
Abu Dhabi Is Going To Help India Build Some Of The Best Roads In The World!

Abu Dhabi Is Going To Help India Build Some Of The Best Roads In The World!

In first-of-its kind initiative, Abu Dhabi is keen on investing Rs 35,000 crore on 50 Indian highway projects.

uae23%20700_1455264374.jpg


^^
Stands to reason.

A huge % of oil, some economies upto 90 %, is spent on transportation; a majority of that on personal vehicles. UAE's best business interest is served by building roads for ppl. to drive.

If I was UAE, I would invest in metropolitan roads and exit expressways fanning out of metros.

---xxx---

FDI, Remittances, Exports Etc.

2015 saw $ 31 Billion in FDI, $ 70.39 in remittances and ~$ 250 in exports Re: India.

A firm believer in Power Purchase Parity (PPP); what that means to me is that the Total Inflow = 351.39


· Or, $'s 6325.02 Billion or $ 6.325 Trillion
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in Power Purchase Parity (PPP) terms.

Further, # 1-2-3 in imports are crude oil-&-gas, raw gold-&-diamonds and core computer chips and e-accessories. Value-addition is local and sold, even exported for additional profit. This is a grey area and subject for research as is hidden value and #'s re: content (think software, Bollywood and HR exports). Same with gems-&-jewelry where polishing, finishing, setting, design and refinement are arbitrarily priced therefore hard to report; massive under-invoicing is the norm.
Summarily, ~ $ 6 Trillion may be the richest haul in the world yr.-on-yr.,
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ex China. ( not so sure there either, China hands, help me out.
I have my doubts re: China. India Vs. China is an apples Vs. Oranges comparison given the substance of import-export items. And finally, import bills for India have crashed re: oil-&-gas.

Modi's Indian Govt. is on a roll, feedback ?

You can search for any mathematical expression, using functions such as: sin, cos, sqrt, etc. You can find a complete list of functions here.

Source:India Developing, but still a long way to go | Page 681

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I'm big on PPP.

I figure ~ $ 6 .5 Trillion in PPP went to India in 2015 ☺!

That's a damp $ 31 Billion in FDI, fallen exports of around $ 250 and stable about $ 70 in remittances, in real not PPP values.

PPP @ $'s 18 Vs. Rs. Do the math, check above.

Import bills, mostly oil-&-gas, also crashed.
Next big import items remain gold and diamonds, much for re-export

---xxx---

@TheGujju, Oil is down re. glut in production and move to shale gas. India, China and others haven't even begun re. shale gas.

Gas is the thing, too much around. Check Oz., Brazil, Mozambique and all the classic OPEC places are drowning in this new fuel.

And big daddy the US ain't buying no ... so4ry I'm on a run.

@Nilgiri, thamks, willco, do post link kindly.

Source: India Developing, but still a long way to go | Page 681
 
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Oh that reminds me Delhi Metro is the capital's killer app. Surprisingly for a mass transport system, it's not just profitable but a money spinner. Check the Metro's wiki page and the final column shows meager profits year on year in fancy EBIDTA terms , and I'm thinking what EBIDTA, it's a O or near O % loan project from govt. and suppliers credit plus much of the rolling stock is now locally made and sourced. Other input is all local. Finally, trial and gestation period is long over as as new lines to outlying exurbs and towns turn it into a mega metro and interconnectedness thickens it's utility, it will turn into a $ billion cash fountain.
Redirect Notice
Metro can make even more money from broadband, telephony, delivery, ads, real_estate, solar and water harvesting. Just like Bombay 'Locals' mass rapid system is a cash fountain for Western Railway. Delhi metro = Mega Metro!

Source: India Developing, but still a long way to go | Page 683
 

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