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The finance ministry has received feedback that the Indian capital markets could witness $20-25 billion inflows on the pessimistic side and $80-90 billion on the optimistic side in the next two years, from the newly announced category of qualified foreign investors (QFIs) route. QFIs include foreign individuals, groups and associations.

'India can get up to $90 bn in 2 years'

Despite the immediate macroeconomic circumstances, oil-to-yarn and retail conglomerate Reliance Industries Ltd (RIL) has linked its fortunes to what it believes to be the bright future growth cycle for India.

RIL

A day after Prime Minister Manmohan Singh approved key infrastructure projects and reiterated his government’s resolve to remove bottlenecks to growth, India’s industry leaders welcomed the government move, saying it would “increase investors’ confidence”.

“Any initiative that will spur growth, job creation and economic activity is a welcome move and will increase confidence of investors,” S Gopalakrishnan, executive co-chairman of Infosys Ltd, said on the sidelines of the ongoing the Global Investors Meet here.

India Inc happy over PM's new infra plans
 
Rupee back at 54-level as fund flows strengthen

Mumbai: Strengthening for the third day in a row, the rupee Thursday shot up by 42 paise against the dollar to end at 54-level for the first time in nearly three weeks, amid sustained FII inflows and a surprise rate cut by China.

The rupee commenced higher at 55.14 a dollar from the overnight close of 55.36 at the Interbank Foreign Exchange (Forex) market, and immediately touched a low of 55.30 on some dollar demand from oil importers as crude oil hovered around the USD 85 per barrel.

However, the currency bounced back to breach 55-mark to a high of 54.92 before concluding at 54.94, its highest closing since May 18. This was rise of 0.76 percent or 42 paise.

In the last three sessions, the rupee has gained 71 paise at a time local stocks, represented by Sensex, rose over 600 points with the 30-share index rising by 195 points today.

Apart from Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) buying shares worth over Rs 675 crore today, forex dealers said the rate cut in China in late trade further boosted a revival in global risk-taking sentiment.

The euro hit a 10-day high of USD 1.2601 against the dollar and the Australian dollar rose to new three-week high of USD 0.9993 after China's central bank unexpectedly cut benchmark one-year lending rate by 25 bps to 6.31 percent. The deposit rate was also lowered by 25 bps to 3.25 percent.

The rate cut by China helped the rupee, said Hemal Doshi, Chief Currency Strategist, Geojit Comtrade.

"Factors like euro strengthening against dollar and FIIs buying shares have contributed to the appreciation of rupee," said T S Srinivasan, GM (Treasury), Indian Overseas Bank.

Expectations of more easing from Federal Reserve weakened the dollar as it down 0.3 percent against a basket of currencies.

Rupee back at 54-level as fund flows strengthen

Sensex up for 4th straight day, ends at 1-month high of 16,649

Mumbai: Indian stocks rose for the fourth straight day Thursday with Sensex climbing 195 points to a one-month high of 16,649.05 as investors cheered government push to the infrastructure sector and the rising rupee.

After gaining nearly 500 points in the last three days, the 30-share index opened with a 100-point gain on strong Asian cues. It consolidated gains further as the rupee clawed back to 54-levels intra-day.

The sentiments were supported as European markets opened higher on hopes that global central banks will resort to a fresh round of stimulus as the Eurozone crisis deepens.

All eyes are on Federal Reserve chief Ben Bernanke who is scheduled to speak to US Congress later today and investors expect to hear about quantitative easing, said traders.

Gains in Sensex were led by banks including HDFC Bank, and ICICI Bank up over 3.5 percent as the belief gained further ground that Reserve Bank will cut rates on June 18.

Index heavyweight RIL closed 1 percent up on its 30th AGM while Infosys and ITC ended 1-2 percent higher. Auto counters including Maruti, M&M and Hero also rose 2-3 percent today.

Factors like crude oil prices at USD 85 a barrel and rupee trading near 55-level to a dollar enthused investors further to buy as across the market over 1,500 stocks rose with investor wealth surging Rs 42,000 crore to Rs 59 lakh crore.

With 25 out 30 constituents closing higher, Sensex ended at 16,649.05, a level last seen on May 7, up 194.75 points.

Similarly, the 50-share NSE Nifty regained the key 5,000-level by rising 52.55 points to 5,049.65.

"Markets were inspired by hopes of rate cut and positive sentiments after Manmohan Singh announced a big push to infrastructure. European and Asian shares were up on speculation that central banks will respond with more stimulus," said Sharmila Joshi of Fairwealth Securities.

The government had yesterday announced 2012-13 ambitious targets for investments in ports and aviation sectors, power generation, coal production and railway freight carriage.

Asian stocks jumped, extending gains made in the previous session, as investors hoped for US and European monetary easing to counter growing economic woes.

Key benchmark indices in Hong Kong, Japan, South Korea and Taiwan rose by between 0.34 percent to 2.56 percent while China's Shanghai Composite and Singapore's Straits Times fell by 0.06 percent and 0.71 percent.

European stocks erased some of its early gains but still traded higher in their afternoon deals. Key indices like FTSE was up 0.55 pert cent, CAC (0.34 percent) and DAX (0.29 percent).

Major gainers from the Sensex pack were HDFC Bank (3.75 percent), followed by ICICI Bank (3.67 percent), Sterlite Ind. (3.42 percent), DLF (3.27 percent), Maruti Suzuki (3.03 percent), Infosys (1.99 percent), Hero Motocorp (1.97 percent), M&M (1.89 percent), ITC (1.86 percent), NTPERCENT (1.83 percent), Tata Power (1.75 percent), Jindal Steel (1.52 percent), BHEL (1.3 percent), Bharti Airtel (1.1 percent) and Reliance (0.97 percent).

However, Wipro fell by 1.91 percent, Gail India by 1 percent and TCS by 0.94 percent.

Among the sectoral indices, the BSE-Realty shot up by 2.28 percent followed by the Bankex (2.25 percent), the BSE-Auto (1.39 percent), the BSE-Power (1.20 percent), the BSE-Metal (1.16 percent), the BSE-FMCG (1.15 percent) and the BSE-Capital Goods (1.12 percent).

The market breadth continued to show positive trend as 1,527 shares finished with gains while 1,172 ended with losses.

"A lot of events are lined up in the near term:- IIP: June 12, WPI: June 14, Greece re-election: June 17, RBI policy meeting: June 18 and FOMC meeting: June 20...These events may have significant market implications," said Pankaj Pandey, Head Research, ICICIdirect.

The total turnover firmed up further to Rs 2,176.65 crore from Rs 2,060.29 crore yesterday.

Sensex up for 4th straight day, ends at 1-month high of 16,649
 
No exporter is happy with the weakening rupee

8-6-2012

"No exporter is happy with the weakening rupee," says Rafeeque Ahmed, President, Federation of Indian Exports Organisations. Why not? "We are scared," says Ludhianabased Rajnish Ahuja, who has been exporting engineering goods for nearly three decades. "Foreign buyers are very smart. They are asking for a 10 per cent discount now. But if the rupee appreciates tomorrow, we are worried they will want the discount to continue."

Why rupee fall is of no help to exporters this time - Business Today

Monsoon rains 36% below average in first week

8-6-2012

NEW DELHI: Monsoon rains were 36 percent below average in the week to June 6, the weather office said on Thursday, reflecting the delay in the arrival of the seasonal rains over Kerala from the usual June 1 start date. The monsoon rains are crucial for farm output and economic growth as about 55 percent of the south Asian nation's arable land is rain-fed, and the farm sector accounts for about 15 percent of a nearly $2-trillion economy.

Monsoon rains 36% below average in first week - The Times of India


Rupee falling to 55 Level in the morning


The rupee opened weaker against the dollar on Friday.
 
I have been refraining to posting this, just not to rub salt on wounds. but indian cheerleading trolls are ungrateful!

India's fertilisers demand seen falling in FY13-Tata Chem
Source : Reuters Thu, Jun 07, 2012

(DAP) and muriate of potash (MoP) to fall 15-20 percent this year as a weak rupee and lower government subsidy push up prices, a company official said.
Indian farms consumed 10.8 million tonnes of DAP in the past fiscal year that ended in March, while raw MoP consumption was 3 million tonnes, according to government data.
This year, fertiliser (business) is certainly seeing pressure because of the depreciating rupee, said P.K. Ghose, chief financial officer at Tata Chemicals that gets about half its revenue fertilisers.
The rupee has depreciated nearly 19 percent over the last 12 months, ballooning the cost of fertilisers the company imports from Canada, Russia and the Middle East.
If you need to make your operations viable, you need to increase price, Ghose said in an interview.
Facing a burgeoning fiscal deficit, India has also slashed by a fifth the subsidy it gives to phosphate and potash-based fertilisers in 2012/13
 
India on course to achieve USD 500 bln exports target by 2014
Helped by market diversification and incentives announced in the foreign trade policy, India is likely to achieve the export target of USD 500 billion by 2013-14. "I believe that we are on course to achieve the (USD) 500 billion target," Commerce and Industry Minister Anand Sharma said
here at a FICCI function.

Sharma said that although the traditional exports destinations -- the US and Europe are important, there is a need to focus on new markets like Africa, Latin America and Central Asia.

The government has announced several incentives for exporters to explore new destinations under focus market and focus product scheme.

The minister also expressed concerns over widening trade deficit which has touched USD 185 billion in the last fiscal.
In 2011-12, exports grew by 21 per cent to USD 303.7 billion.

The government has announced fiscal incentives, including interest subsidy to help exporters in the wake of global economic uncertainty.

"I hope the exporters will benefit from incentives announced in the foreign trade policy," he added.
India on course to achieve USD 500 bln exports target by 2014 - Hindustan Times
 
India now have access to Chinese marine products market

Indian exporters can now start exporting marine food products to China again, a $5 billion market for these items, according to an Indian embassy official.

India is one among 37 countries which has been cleared by the General Administration of Quality Supervision, Inspection and Quarantine (AQSIQ) to start exporting marine food products to China, K Nagaraj Naidu, Counsellor (Commercial) at the Indian Embassy said.

India now have access to Chinese marine products market


China grain imports to rise, India eyes more exports

China will import more corn and soybeans next season to keep pace with growing domestic demand, while fellow emerging giant India is trying to export more of its record wheat and rice crops to reduce its surplus, officials said on Thursday.

UPDATE 1-China grain imports to rise, India eyes more exports | Reuters
 
Govt okays FDI from Pak; same status as Bangla funds
fdi-pak-ptigraphic_1107876g.jpg

NEW DELHI, JUNE 8: The Centre has given the green signal for Foreign Direct Investments (FDI) from Pakistan and treating it on a par with such investments from Bangladesh.

“Since they were similarly banned, we had to give Pakistan what we already gave to Bangladesh,” official sources told Business Line.

Currently, a Bangladeshi citizen or an entity incorporated there is allowed to invest in India with the Foreign Investment Promotion Board's (FIPB) approval. The FDI policy permits Indian companies to issue employee stock options to Bangladeshi citizens, also with the FIPB's nod. These norms for Bangladesh will now be applicable to Pakistan too. The FIPB clearance is also meant to take care of security concerns.

Details to be notified

The Commerce and Industry Minister, Mr Anand Sharma, had on April 13 said that India has, in principle, agreed to allow FDI from Pakistan, adding that procedural details would be notified soon.

The changes were to be announced at the India-Pakistan Commerce Secretary level meeting slated for May 2-5, but the meeting was postponed and a new date is yet to be fixed. The Department of Industrial Policy and Promotion and the Finance Ministry are also considering if the notification on changes in the FDI policy should precede changes in Foreign Exchange Management Act, or vice-versa.

Non-discriminatory

The delay in the notifications was affecting the progress of negotiations among the South Asian countrie towards agreements on services trade and investment. Pakistan questioned how India could push for liberalisation of services and investment in South Asia when New Delhi was yet to accord non-discriminatory treatment to Pakistan on FDI. Meanwhile, on Friday, Mr Sharma said during a CII function that India has allowed investments from Pakistan and opening up of Pakistani bank branches in India. He said South Asian economic integration will be possible only when India and Pakistan partner to bring peace and prosperity in the region. Speaking at a FICCI function, he said the Government will allow investments from Pakistan, “whatever is the amount”, to flow into India.
 
Sahara Infra & Housing announce 10 lifestyle township projects


Lucknow: Sahara Infrastructure and Housing today announced 10 lifestyle township projects, including nine self-sufficient integrated townships under the brand name of 'Sahara City Homes' and 'Sahara Grace' here.

On his birthday, Sahara India Pariwar founder and Chairman Subrata Roy Sahara announced start of the project at 'Shubh Aagaman' ceremony here.

He said that it would be followed by simultaneous 'Bhoomipujans' and 'Shubh Aagaman' ceremony at all 10 projects sites.

On the occasion, Roy also announced to introduce another 58 projects spread across India this fiscal.

"Out of 58 projects, 21 will be township projects and 37 projects will belong to affordable housing segment. With this, Sahara will enter the affordable housing segment under a new brand name and will address the supply gap in the mass housing segment," Roy said.

This new brand will make housing affordable to people by offering residential units in the price range of Rs 5-15 lakh, across 350 plus cities of India.

"We have vowed to develop comprehensive real estate projects offering quality lifestyle to people across the board covering not just tier one cities but also tier two, three and even small towns, in congruence to the scales of income of people," Roy said.

"These 10 townships along with the ongoing 8 township projects and forthcoming 58 projects to be added in January 2013", he said.

Spread on a total area of 900 acres, the 10 projects will offer 25 thousand residential units along with a world class range of amenities and facilities.

The Project Management of these 10 projects will be done by Sahara Turner Constructions Limited. The possessions of residential units is planned to start in next 2.5 years with project completion in 5 years.

Out of the 10 projects in seven states, nine Sahara City Homes integrated townships are coming up in the cities of Pune, Aurangabad, Jodhpur, Gwalior, Bareilly, Solapur, Porbandar, Katni, Kashipur while 'Sahara Grace' brand of premium residential apartment cluster is coming up in Cuttak - Bhubaneshwar.

'Sahara City Homes' integrated townships are currently being developed in 7 cities (Lucknow, Jaipur, Indore, Nagpur, Ahmedabad, Satna and Coimbatore).

The company will deliver over 2000 residential units in the current financial year.

Sahara Grace brand of residential apartment clusters has been a major success in Gurgaon and Lucknow where it has been completed and sold out.


PTI
 
Essar get final nod in Indonesia for mining
BANGKOK: Essar Energy today said it has received the final approval from the Indonesian government to start mining at the Aries coal project.

According to Essar, it has received the final 'Pinjam Pakai' forest approval, enabling it to accelerate development at Aries to provide fuel for its Salaya-I power plant.

"Essar Energy has access to over 500 million tonnes of coal resources across seven coal blocks in India and overseas. This coal is sufficient to provide fuel to 5,250 MW of Essar Energy's power generation capacity," company CEO Naresh Nayyar said.

"This is a major step forward in our strategy of providing full fuel security for all of our power generation assets, thereby eliminating price and delivery risks," he added.

The Aries coal mine, which Essar acquired in April, 2010 for USD 118 million, is 5,000 hectares in area and is located in the West Kutai region of East Kalimantan.

Essar has already started constructing the supporting road and port infrastructure; it is expected that first coal will be available within nine to 12 months.
 
Bad News! India's forex reserves plunge to $285.85 bn

This is the fifth weekly drop in the forex reserves kitty. The reserves had declined by $1.74 billion and $1.80 billion respectively in the previous two weeks.

The Reserve Bank of India is believed to have sold dollars during these weeks to curb the slide in the rupee's value.The partially convertible rupee slumped to a record low of 56.52 against a US dollar on May 31. It has weakened sharply in the last two months due to increased demands from oil importers and outflow of money by the foreign institutional investors as poor GDP growth data dampened sentiments in the Indian markets.

India's forex reserves plunge to $285.85 bn
 
Ashok Leyland supplies 100 buses to Ghana for $7.6 mn - Indian Express
Hinduja Group flagship firm Ashok Leyland today said it has supplied 100 'Falcon' buses to Ghana for USD 7.6 million (about Rs 42 crore).

"Ashok Leyland has supplied 100 Falcon buses to Ghana worth USD 7.6 million," the commercial vehicle maker said in a filing to the BSE.

The vehicles were inducted to the fleet of a transport company -- Metro Mass Transit Ltd, in which the Government of Ghana has 45 per cent stake, it added. The buses will ply on 360 routes throughout Ghana – both inter and intra-city.

"Africa has been one of our key focus markets and presents some very unique opportunities for a commercial vehicle manufacturer like us," Ashok Leyland Managing Director Vinod K Dasari said.

The company had earlier supplied buses to Nigeria and those hold a premium status in Lagos' bus rapid system, which is the only such model in the sub-Saharan Africa, he added. All the 100 buses supplied to Ghana are left-hand drive and were specially customised into 57-seater buses.

"Ashok Leyland also becomes the first commercial vehicle manufacturer to introduce a mechanical inline fuel injection with an Euro 3 engine and electronic destination board in Ghana," the statement said.

This is the second such major order from Ghana after the induction of 160 waste management trucks last year, it added. Shares of Ashok Leyland were trading 1.69 per cent up at Rs 27 apiece on BSE during morning hours.
 
S&P: India may become first BRIC nation to lose investment grade

11-06-2012

NEW DELHI: India could lose its investment-grade rating due to slow GDP growth and political roadblocks to economic policymaking, said a S&P report titled "Will India Be The First BRIC Fallen Angel?"

The report states that the Indian government's reaction to potentially slower growth and greater vulnerability to economic shocks could largely determine whether the country can maintain an investment-grade rating or become the first "fallen angel" among the BRIC nations (which also comprise Brazil, Russia, and China). The 'BBB-' long-term sovereign credit rating on India is currently one notch above speculative grade.

"Setbacks or reversals in India's path toward a more liberal economy could hurt its long-term growth prospects and, therefore, its credit quality," said Standard & Poor's credit analyst Joydeep Mukerji.

Standard & Poor's revised the rating outlook to negative from stable in April 2012 because of India's lower GDP growth prospects and the risk that its external liquidity and fiscal flexibility may erode. The negative outlook also reflects the risk that Indian authorities may be unable to react to economic shocks quickly and decisively enough to maintain the country's current creditworthiness.

"The combination of a weakening political context for further reform, along with economic deceleration, raises the risk that the government may take modest steps backward away from economic liberalization in the event of unexpected economic shocks. Such potential backward steps could reverse India's liberalization of the external sector and the financial sector," said Mukherji.

The report examines the forecasts for economic growth, and the possible effects on business confidence and the government's commitment to economic reform.

S&P: India may become first BRIC nation to lose investment grade - The Economic Times
 
Dismissing fears over India's growth rate may falling to less than 6.5 per cent finance minister Pranab Mukherjee today said 2012-13 would be the turnaround year for the economy.

"We are taking all necessary steps to ensure that we come back to the path of the targeted GDP growth. Of course it will take some time...but from this year we expect to make a turn around," Mukherjee said.

domain-b.com : 2012-13 to be turnaround year for Indian economy: Mukherjee

Indian economy benefits from buffalo meat export boom | GT: Global Trader
 
Bad News! India's forex reserves plunge to $285.85 bn

This is the fifth weekly drop in the forex reserves kitty. The reserves had declined by $1.74 billion and $1.80 billion respectively in the previous two weeks.

The Reserve Bank of India is believed to have sold dollars during these weeks to curb the slide in the rupee's value.The partially convertible rupee slumped to a record low of 56.52 against a US dollar on May 31. It has weakened sharply in the last two months due to increased demands from oil importers and outflow of money by the foreign institutional investors as poor GDP growth data dampened sentiments in the Indian markets.



Overseas investors pull out $ 20 Billion from India



New Delhi, June 10 2012, PTI:

Rich overseas entities, investing in Indian markets through 'participatory notes' (P-notes/PNs), are estimated to have pulled out over Rs 1 lakh crore (about USD 20 billion) in less than three months on fears of getting caught in the government's taxation net and its black money trail.

As a result, the quantum of money invested through these PNs has hit its rock-bottom levels of just about 10 per cent of total FII (foreign institutional investment) holdings -- which used to be more than 50 per cent a few years ago.

The participatory notes (PNs) allow foreign HNIs (high networth individuals) and other rich investors to invest in India through already-registered FIIs, while saving on time and costs associated with direct registrations.

The flight of PN investments began late in March after the government in its union budget proposed new taxation regime of General Anti-Avoidance Rule (GAAR) and certain retrospective amendments for taxing offshore transactions.

Sources said that PN investors have already pulled out close to Rs 1 lakh crore (about USD 20 billion) from Indian equity and debt markets, while they might have decided against putting in fresh investments worth at least Rs 50,000 crore ever since the new tax policy was proposed.

While GAAR has been deferred by a year, the tax proposals for offshore transactions could apply to FIIs as well.

It is feared that the new taxes could lead to heavy tax burden for the foreign investors investing through tax-friendly jurisdictions like Mauritius. Most of the overseas entities route their investments into India through such places to take benefit of their tax-friendly regimes.

There are apprehensions that FIIs could be forced to pass on their tax liabilities to their PN clients, thus adversely impacting their overall returns on investment.

Many hedge funds and ultra-rich investors from abroad prefer PNs, which are sold by India-registered FIIs, as it allows them maximise the returns through savings on costs and rigmarole of various regulatory processes.

As per the latest data available with market regulator Sebi, the total value of PNs in Indian markets stood at about Rs 1,30,012 crore (about USD 25 billion) at the end of April 2012, down from Rs 1,83,151 crore at the end of February and Rs 1,65,832 crore as on March 31, 2012.

This figure was on a sharp uptrend this year till middle of March, but started declining sharply after tax proposals came to be known. While the mid-month figures are not shared by Sebi, the industry sources said that the total value of PNs are estimated to have reached near Rs two trillion (about USD 40 billion), before it started sliding in late March.

Sources said that the total value of PNs is estimated to have fallen further to near Rs one lakh crore level (about USD 15 billion) currently, marking a fall of nearly same amount from its late-March peak.

The share of PNs in total FII holding stood at 16.4 per cent in February, but fell to 11.4 per cent by April. It has now further fallen to near 10 per cent level, sources said, while adding that most of the FII outflow currently taking place is in the PN accounts.

The PNs have been accounting for mostly 15-20 per cent of total FII holdings in India since 2009, while it used to much higher in the range of 25-40 per cent in 2008. However, it was as high as over 50 per cent at the peak of Indian stock market bull run during a few months in 2007.

In addition to the new taxation proposals, the government's recent white paper on Black Money has added to the flight of PN investments from India, sources said.

The white paper, tabled by the Parliament on May 21, said that PNs were being used by Indian citizens to re-invest the black money in the country.

"Investment in the Indian stock market through PNs is another way in which the black money generated by Indians is re-invested in India," it said.

Participatory note is a derivative instrument issued in foreign jurisdictions, by a foreign institutional investor (FII) or its sub-accounts against underlying Indian securities.

"... through the instrument of PNs, investment can be made in the Indian securities market by those investors who do not wish to be regulated by Indian regulators due to a variety of reasons," the white paper noted.

The reasons could include the desire of investors to keep their identity anonymous, which is possible also for the reason that PNs/ODIs can be freely traded and easily transferred without disclosing the identity of the actual beneficiaries, it added.

As per the white paper, since PNs are issued from offshore financial centres (OFCs) such as the Cayman Islands, British Virgin Islands, Switzerland, and Luxembourg, it is possible to hide the identity of the ultimate beneficiaries through multiple layers.

Amid rising concerns that some of the money coming through PNs could be unaccounted wealth under the of FII investment, market regulator Sebi has already taken various measures to ensure that these instruments are not used for black money laundering. It was due to the steps taken by Sebi that the PNs' share in total FII holding had previously fallen from over 50 per cent to 15-20 per cent.
 
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