Ministry of Statistics & Programme Implementation
30-November, 2018 17:30 IST
Estimates of Gross Domestic Product for the Second Quarter (July-September) of 2018-19
The Central Statistics Office (CSO), Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation has released the estimates of Gross Domestic Product(GDP)for thesecond quarter (July-September) Q2 of 2018-19, both at Constant(2011-12) and Current Prices, along with the corresponding quarterly estimates of expenditure components of the GDP.
2. The details of estimates of GDP for Q2 of 2018-19arepresented below:
I ESTIMATES OF GVA BY ECONOMIC ACTIVITY
(a) At Constant (2011-2012) Prices
3. GDP at Constant (2011-12) Prices in Q2 of 2018-19 is estimated at `33.98 lakh crore, as against `31.72lakh crore in Q2 of 2017-18, showing a growth rate of 7.1 percent. Quarterly GVA (Basic Price) at Constant (2011-2012) Prices for Q2 of 2018-19 is estimated at `31.40 lakh crore, as against `29.38lakh crore in Q2 of 2017-18, showing a growth rate of 6.9 percent over the corresponding quarter of previous year.
4. The Economic Activities which registered growth of over 7 percent in Q2 of 2018-19 over Q2 of 2017-18 are ‘Manufacturing, ‘Electricity, Gas, Water Supply & Other Utility Services’‘Construction’ and‘Public Administration, Defence and Other Services’. The growth in the ‘Agriculture, Forestry and Fishing’, ‘Mining and Quarrying’, ‘Trade, Hotels, Transport, Communication and Services related to Broadcasting’ and Financial, Real Estate and Professional Services is estimated to be 3.8 percent, (-) 2.4 percent, 6.8 percent, and 6.3 percent respectively during this period.
5
. Industry Analysis
The second quarter estimates are based on Agricultural production during Kharif season of 2018-19obtained from theDepartment of Agriculture, Cooperation&Farmer Welfare (DAC& FW), abridged financial results of Listed Companies from BSE/NSE, Index of Industrial Production (IIP), monthly accounts of Union Government Expenditure maintained by Controller General of Accounts (CGA) and of State Government Expenditure maintained by Comptroller and Auditor General of India (CAG) for the period July-September2018-19. Performance of key sectors like Transport including Railways, Road, Air and Water Transport, etc., Communication, Banking and Insurance during the period July-September2018-19 have been taken into account while compiling the estimates. Performance of the Corporatesector during July-September2018based on data received from BSE/NSE hasbeen taken into account. With the introduction of Goods and Services Tax (GST) from 1st July 2017 and consequent changes in the Tax Structure, the total Tax Revenue used for GDP compilation includes non-GST Revenue and GST Revenue based on GSTR filings as provided by Central Board of Indirect Taxes and Customs, Ministry of Finance.Estimated growth in the indicator compiled on the basis of employee expenses, profit before tax and depreciation of Listed Companies deflated by appropriate price indices has been used to extrapolate the Corporatesector estimates of the same quarter of the previous year.
Agriculture, Forestry and Fishing
5.1 Quarterly GVA at Basic Prices for Q22018-19 from ‘Agriculture, Forestry and Fishing’ sector grew by 3.8 percent as compared to growth of 2.6percent in Q22017-18. According tothe information furnished by the Department of Agriculture, Cooperation&Farmer Welfare (DAC& FW), which has been used in compiling the estimate of GVA from agriculture in Q2 of 2018-19, the production of Food Grains during the Kharif season of agriculture year 2018-19 grew by0.6percent as compared to growth of 1.7percent during the same period in2017-18.Around 55percent of GVA of this sector is based on the Livestock products, Forestry and Fisheries, which registereda combined growth of about6.7percent in Q2 of 2018-19.
Mining and Quarrying
5.2.Quarterly GVA at Basic Prices for Q22018-19 from ‘Mining and Quarrying’ sector declined by2.4percent as compared to growth of 6.9percent in Q22017-18. The key indicators of Mining sector, namely, production of Coal, Crude Oil and Natural Gas and IIP Mining registered growth rates of6.2percent, (-) 4.4 percent,(-) 2.0 percent and 1.0 percent, during Q2 of2018-19 as compared to 8.5 percent, (-) 0.7 percent, 4.7 percent and 7.1 percentrespectively, during Q2 of 2017-18.
Manufacturing
5.3 Quarterly GVA at Basic Prices for Q22018-19 from ‘Manufacturing’ sector grew by 7.4percent as compared to growth of 7.1percent in Q22017-18. The Private Corporate sector growth (which has a share of over75 percent in the Manufacturing sector)was estimated from available data of listed companies with BSE and NSE. The Quasi -Corporate and Unorganized segment (which has a share of over20percent in the Manufacturing sector)has been estimated using IIP of Manufacturing. IIP Manufacturing registered growth rate of5.5percent during Q2 of2018-19 as compared to 2.5 percent during Q2 of 2017-18.
Electricity, Gas, Water Supply and Other Utility Services
5.4 Quarterly GVA at Basic Prices for Q22018-19 from ‘Electricity,Gas, Water Supply and Other Utility Services’ sector grew by 9.2percent as compared to growth of 7.7percent in Q22017-18. The key indicator of this sector, namely, IIP of Electricity registered growth rate of7.5percent during Q2 of2018-19 as compared to 6.1percent in Q2 of 2017-18.
Construction
5.5 Quarterly GVA at Basic Prices for Q22018-19from ‘Construction’ sector grew by 7.8percent as compared to growth of 3.1percent in Q22017-18. Key indicators of Construction sector, namely, production of Cement and Consumption of finished Steel registered growth rates of12.5percent and7.2 percentrespectively, during Q2 of2018-19 as compared to 0.6percent,7.6percent respectively, in Q2 of 2017-18.
Trade, Hotels, Transport, Communication and Services related to Broadcasting
5.6. Quarterly GVA at Basic Prices for Q22018-19 from this sector grew by 6.8 percent as compared to growth of 8.5percent in Q22017-18. Key indicator used for estimating GVA from Trade sector is the Sales Tax growth. With introduction of GST, Sales Tax data is now subsumed under GST. Therefore, a comparable estimate of turnover based on Sales Tax has been estimated. Methodology of estimation is as explained in the Annex to the press note on estimates of GDP for the second quarter (July-September) of 2017-18 released on 30thNovember, 2017. Indicator used for measuring GVA from Hotels and Restaurant sector is the Private Corporate growth in this sector. Among the Other Services sectors, Cargo handled at Major Sea Ports, Cargo handled by the Civil Aviation and passengers handled by the Civil Aviation registered growth rates of6.4 percent, 5.5 percent and 16.2 percent respectively, during July-September, 2018-19. Indicators of Railways sector, namely, Net Tonne Kilometers and Passenger Kilometers have shown growth of 6.9 percent and 2.2 percent respectively, duringQ2 of 2018-19.
Financial,Real Estate and Professional Services
5.7 Quarterly GVA at Basic Prices for Q22018-19 from this sector grew by6.3percent as compared to growth of 6.1percent in Q22017-18. Major component of this industry is the Real Estate and Professional Services which has a share of over 75percent.The key indicators of this sector are the quarterly growth of Corporate sector for Real Estate, Business Services andComputer Related Activities which are estimated from available data from listed companies. The other indicators of this sector, viz., AggregateBankDeposits, and Bank Credits have shown growth rates of8.1 percent and12.5percent respectively as compared to 8.2 percent and 6.5percentrespectively during 2017-18.
Public Administration, Defence and Other Services
5.8 Quarterly GVA at Basic Prices for Q22018-19 from this sector grew by 10.9percent as compared to growth of 6.1percent in Q22017-18. The key indicator of this sector namely, Union Government Revenue Expenditure net of Interest Payments excluding Subsidies,grew by 22.2percent during Q2 of 2018-19 as compared to 0.8percent in Q2 of 2017-18.
(b) At Current Prices
6. GDP is derived by adding Taxes on Products net of Subsidies on Products to GVA at Basic Prices. GDP at Current Prices in Q2 of 2018-19 is estimated at `45.54 lakh crore, as against `40.68 lakh crore in Q2 of 2017-18, showing a growth rate of 12.0 percent. GVA at Basic Price at Current Prices in Q2 of 2018-19, is estimated at `41.46 lakh crore, as against `37.03lakh crore in Q2, 2017-18, showing an increase of12.0 percent.Growth rates in various sectors are as follows: ‘Agriculture, Forestry and Fishing’ (2.8 percent), ‘Mining and Quarrying’ (20.7 percent), ‘Manufacturing’ (12.2 percent), ‘Electricity, Gas, Water Supply and Other Utility Services’ (16.3 percent), ‘Construction’ (13.2 percent), 'Trade, Hotels, Transport and Communication' (12.3percent), 'Financial, Real Estate and Professional Services' (12.5 percent), and ‘Public Administration, Defence and Other Services' (16.1 percent).
(c) Price Indices used as Deflators
7. The Wholesale Price Index (WPI), in respect of the groups - Minerals, Manufactured products, Electricity and All Commodities, has registered a growth of 8.2 percent, 4.4 percent, 6.4 percent and 5.0percent respectively whereas Food Articles declined by 2.1 percent during Q2 of 2018-19over Q2 of 2017-18. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) has shown a rise of 3.9percent duringQ2 of 2018-19as compared to growth of 3.0 percent during Q2 of 2017-18.
II ESTIMATES OF EXPENDITURES ON GDP
8. The components of Expenditure on Gross Domestic Product, namely, Consumption Expenditure and Capital Formation, are normally measured at Market Prices. The aggregates presented in the following paragraphs, therefore, are in terms of Market Prices.
Private Final Consumption Expenditure
9. Private Final Consumption Expenditure (PFCE) at Current Prices is estimated at `26.31 lakh crore in Q2 of 2018-19 as against`23.58 lakh crore in Q2 of 2017-18. At Constant (2011-12) Prices, the PFCE is estimated at`18.52 lakh crore in Q2 of 2018-19 as against`17.30 lakh crore in Q2 of 2017-18. In terms of GDP, the rates of PFCE at Current and Constant (2011-2012) Prices during Q2 of 2018-19 are estimated at 57.8 percent and54.5 percent, respectively, as against the corresponding rates of 58.0 per cent and 54.5 per cent respectively in Q2 of 2017-18.Growth rates of PFCE at Current and Constant Prices are estimated at 11.6 percent and 7.0 percent during Q2 of 2018-19 as compared to 9.9 percent and 6.8 percent respectively during Q2 of 2017-18.
Government Final Consumption Expenditure
10. Government Final Consumption Expenditure (GFCE) at Current Prices is estimated at`5.99lakh crore in Q2 of 2018-19 as against`5.10 lakh crore in Q2 of 2017-18.At Constant (2011-2012) Prices, the GFCE is estimated at`4.22lakhcrore in Q2 of 2018-19 as against`3.74lakh crorein Q2 of 2017-18. In terms of GDP, the rates of GFCE at Current andConstant(2011-2012) Prices during Q2 of 2018-19are estimatedat13.1 percent and12.4 percent, respectively, as against the corresponding rate of12.5 percent and11.8percentrespectively in Q2 of 2017-18.Growth rates of GFCE at Current and Constant Prices are estimated at 17.3 percent and 12.7 percent respectively during Q2 of 2018-19 as compared to 6.9 percent and 3.8 percent respectively during Q2 of 2017-18.
Gross Fixed Capital Formation
11. Gross Fixed Capital Formation (GFCF) at Current Prices is estimated at`13.28 lakh crore in Q2 of 2018-19 as against`11.37 lakh crore in Q2 of 2017-18. At Constant (2011-2012) Prices, the GFCF is estimated at`10.99 lakh crore in Q2 of 2018-19 as against`9.77 lakh crore in Q2 of 2017-18. In terms of GDP, the rates of GFCF at Current and Constant (2011-2012) Prices during Q2 of 2018-19 are estimated at29.2 percent and32.3 percent, respectively, as against the corresponding rates of 27.9 percent and30.8percent, respectively in Q2 of 2017-18. Growth rates of GFCF at Current and Constant Prices are estimated at 16.8 percent and 12.5 percent during Q2 of 2018-19 as compared to 8.4 percent and 6.1 percent during Q2 of 2017-18.
12. Estimates of GVA at Basic Price by kind of Economic Activity and the Expenditures on GDP in Q2(duringJuly-September) and in H1 (half yearly duringApril-September) of2016-17, 2017-18 and 2018-19 at Constant (2011-2012) and Current Prices, aregiven in Statements1 to 8.
13. The next release of quarterly GDP estimate for the quarter October-December, 2018 (Q3 of 2018-19) will be on 28.02.2019.
STATEMENT 1: QUARTERLY ESTIMATES OF GVA AT BASIC PRICES
IN Q2 (JULY-SEPTEMBER) OF 2018-19
(at 2011-12 Prices)
Industry
(`in crore)
Percentage change
GVA at Basic Price
over previous year
2016-17
2017-18
2018-19
2017-18
2018-19
Q1
Q2
Q1
Q2
Q1
Q2
Q1
Q2
Q1
Q2
- Agriculture, Forestry & Fishing
386986
324733
398609
333334
419747
346102
3.0
2.6
5.3
3.8
- Mining & Quarrying
99129
71728
100811
76704
100954
74841
1.7
6.9
0.1
-2.4
- Manufacturing
510673
507701
501599
543682
569094
584164
-1.8
7.1
13.5
7.4
- Electricity, Gas, Water Supply &Other Utility Services
62114
61945
66537
66717
71383
72858
7.1
7.7
7.3
9.2
- Construction
225077
213851
229196
220536
249103
237836
1.8
3.1
8.7
7.8
- Trade, Hotel, Transport, Communication &Services related to Broadcasting
517644
501747
560913
544404
598724
581418
8.4
8.5
6.7
6.8
- Financial, Real Estate & Professional Services
659189
727192
714789
771317
761405
820009
8.4
6.1
6.5
6.3
- Public Administration, Defence& Other Services
314250
359272
356731
381131
392211
422770
13.5
6.1
9.9
10.9
GVA at Basic Price
2775063
2768167
2929185
2937824
3162622
3139997
5.6
6.1
8.0
6.9
STATEMENT 2: QUARTERLY ESTIMATES OF EXPENDITURES OF GDP
IN Q2 (JULY-SEPTEMBER) OF 2018-19
(at 2011-12 Prices)
Item
(`in crore)
RATES OF GDP (%)
Expenditures of Gross Domestic Product
2016-17
2017-18
2018-19
2017-18
2018-19
Q1
Q2
Q1
Q2
Q1
Q2
Q1
Q2
Q1
Q2
1. Private Final Consumption Expenditure (PFCE)
1595219
1619781
1705974
1730288
1852663
1851644
54.7
54.5
54.9
54.5
2. Government Final Consumption Expenditure (GFCE)
313990
360466
369303
374216
397215
421664
11.8
11.8
11.8
12.4
3. Gross Fixed Capital Formation (GFCF)
960255
921132
968141
976881
1065217
1098675
31.0
30.8
31.6
32.3
4. Change in Stocks
22498
22367
21840
23672
23718
24580
0.7
0.7
0.7
0.7
5. Valuables
37008
39255
82235
60550
75650
74677
2.6
1.9
2.2
2.2
6. Exports
603715
612021
639145
653613
720410
741318
20.5
20.6
21.4
21.8
7. Less Imports
625621
654228
741150
719530
834103
903814
23.8
22.7
24.7
26.6
8. Discrepancies
46358
62743
72929
72420
73213
88875
2.3
2.3
2.2
2.6
GDP
2953421
2983537
3118417
3172110
3373983
3397620
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
GDP (Percentage change over previous year)
5.6
6.3
8.2
7.1
STATEMENT 3: QUARTERLY ESTIMATES OF GVA AT BASIC PRICES
IN Q2 (JULY-SEPTEMBER) OF 2018-19
(atCurrent Prices)
Industry
(`in crore)
Percentage change
GVA at Basic Price
over previous year
2016-17
2017-18
2018-19
2017-18
2018-19
Q1
Q2
Q1
Q2
Q1
Q2
Q1
Q2
Q1
Q2
- Agriculture, Forestry & Fishing
563170
475789
566713
496356
606107
510157
0.6
4.3
7.0
2.8
- Mining &Quarrying
83403
61720
94696
71203
111699
85920
13.5
15.4
18.0
20.7
- Manufacturing
575041
574997
579718
630767
682421
707525
0.8
9.7
17.7
12.2
- Electricity, Gas, Water Supply &Other Utility Services
90327
91141
97388
97819
110246
113729
7.8
7.3
13.2
16.3
- Construction
260680
250158
271537
264977
309052
300076
4.2
5.9
13.8
13.2
- Trade, Hotel, Transport, Communication & Services related to Broadcasting
602741
590614
671076
660610
749349
742032
11.3
11.9
11.7
12.3
- Financial, Real Estate & Professional Services
767018
855853
859451
942353
963864
1060403
12.1
10.1
12.1
12.5
- Public Administration, Defence&Other Services
421386
490842
493286
539378
569466
626198
17.1
9.9
15.4
16.1
GVA at Basic Price
3363766
3391115
3633866
3703464
4102203
4146040
8.0
9.2
12.9
12.0
STATEMENT 4: QUARTERLY ESTIMATES OF EXPENDITURES OF GDP
IN Q2 (JULY-SEPTEMBER) OF 2018-19
(at Current Prices)
Item
(`in crore)
RATES OF GDP (%)
Expenditures of Gross Domestic Product
2016-17
2017-18
2018-19
2017-18
2018-19
Q1
Q2
Q1
Q2
Q1
Q2
Q1
Q2
Q1
Q2
1. Private Final Consumption Expenditure (PFCE)
2082484
2146473
2276387
2358320
2589809
2631073
58.4
58.0
58.4
57.8
2. Government Final Consumption Expenditure (GFCE)
407970
477261
490957
510364
553398
598719
12.6
12.5
12.5
13.1
3. Gross Fixed Capital Formation (GFCF)
1089771
1048896
1120067
1136805
1275225
1327985
28.7
27.9
28.8
29.2
4. Change in Stocks
24726
24724
24522
26682
27470
28661
0.6
0.7
0.6
0.6
5. Valuables
40534
46975
84431
60936
71687
53356
2.2
1.5
1.6
1.2
6. Exports
704192
720269
760244
788999
892035
933243
19.5
19.4
20.1
20.5
7. Less Imports
757439
797968
912714
898512
1069029
1173837
23.4
22.1
24.1
25.8
8. Discrepancies
6254
48717
53504
84199
92770
155039
1.4
2.1
2.1
3.4
GDP
3598492
3715346
3897399
4067793
4433365
4554239
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
GDP (Percentage change over previous year)
8.3
9.5
13.8
12.0
STATEMENT 5: ESTIMATES OF GVA AT BASIC PRICES IN H1
(APRIL-SEPTEMBER) OF 2018-19
(at 2011-12 Prices)
APRIL-SEPTEMBER (H1)
(`in crore)
Percentage change
Industry
GVA at Basic Price in H1
Over previous year H1
2016-17
2017-18
2018-19
2017-18
2018-19
- Agriculture, Forestry&Fishing
711719
731942
765849
2.8
4.6
- Mining & Quarrying
170857
177515
175796
3.9
-1.0
- Manufacturing
1018374
1045282
1153258
2.6
10.3
- Electricity, Gas, Water Supply &Other Utility Services
124059
133253
144241
7.4
8.2
- Construction
438928
449732
486938
2.5
8.3
- Trade, Hotel, Transport, Communication &Services related to Broadcasting
1019391
1105317
1180142
8.4
6.8
- Financial, Real Estate &Professional Services
1386381
1486106
1581414
7.2
6.4
- Public Administration, Defence&Other Services
673522
737861
814981
9.6
10.5
GVA at Basic Price
5543231
5867009
6302619
5.8
7.4
STATEMENT 6: ESTIMATES OF EXPENDITURES OF GDP IN H1
(APRIL-SEPTEMBER) OF 2018-19
(at 2011-12 Prices)
APRIL-SEPTEMBER (H1)
(`in crore)
Rates of GDP (%)
Item
Expenditures of Gross Domestic Product in H1
in H1
2016-17
2017-18
2018-19
2017-18
2018-19
- Private Final Consumption Expenditure (PFCE)
3215000
3436262
3704307
54.6
54.7
- Government Final Consumption Expenditure
674456
743519
818879
11.8
12.1
- Gross Fixed Capital Formation (GFCF)
1881387
1945023
2163892
30.9
32.0
4. Change in Stocks
44864
45512
48298
0.7
0.7
5. Valuables
76263
142785
150326
2.3
2.2
6. Exports
1215737
1292758
1461728
20.6
21.6
7. Less Imports
1279850
1460680
1737916
23.2
25.7
8. Discrepancies
109101
145349
162088
2.3
2.4
GDP
5936959
6290527
6771603
100.0
100.0
GDP (Percentage change over previous year)
6.0
7.6
STATEMENT 7: ESTIMATES OF GVA AT BASIC PRICES IN H1
(APRIL-SEPTEMBER) OF 2018-19
(at Current Prices)
APRIL-SEPTEMBER (H1)
(`in crore)
Percentage change
Industry
GVA at Basic Price in H1
over previous year H1
2016-17
2017-18
2018-19
2017-18
2018-19
- Agriculture, Forestry &Fishing
1038959
1063069
1116264
2.3
5.0
- Mining &Quarrying
145124
165899
197618
14.3
19.1
- Manufacturing
1150038
1210485
1389946
5.3
14.8
- Electricity, Gas, Water Supply & Other Utility Services
181467
195207
223976
7.6
14.7
- Construction
510839
536514
609127
5.0
13.5
- Trade, Hotel, Transport, Communication & Services related to Broadcasting
1193355
1331687
1491381
11.6
12.0
- Financial, Real Estate & Professional Services
1622871
1801804
2024266
11.0
12.3
- Public Administration, Defence&Other Services
912228
1032664
1195664
13.2
15.8
GVA at Basic Price
6754880
7337329
8248242
8.6
12.4
STATEMENT 8: ESTIMATES OF EXPENDITURES OF GDP IN H1
(APRIL-SEPTEMBER) OF 2018-19
(at Current Prices)
APRIL-SEPTEMBER (H1)
(`in crore)
Rates of GDP (%)
Item
Expenditures of Gross Domestic Product in H1
in H1
2016-17
2017-18
2018-19
2017-18
2018-19
1. Private Final Consumption Expenditure (PFCE)
4228957
4634707
5220882
58.2
58.1
2.Government Final Consumption Expenditure
885230
1001321
1152117
12.6
12.8
3.Gross Fixed Capital Formation (GFCF)
2138667
2256872
2603210
28.3
29.0
4. Change in Stocks
49450
51204
56130
0.6
0.6
5. Valuables
87510
145367
125043
1.8
1.4
6. Exports
1424461
1549243
1825278
19.5
20.3
7. Less Imports
1555407
1811226
2242865
22.7
25.0
8. Discrepancies
54971
137704
247809
1.7
2.8
GDP
7313838
7965192
8987603
100.0
100.0
GDP (Percentage change over previous year)
8.9
12.8
H1: April- September