Indian Economy-News & Updates

[IndoCarib]

Ford's project B562 to make India a compact car global production base - The Economic Times

 

[IndoCarib]

Could India rival China as a clothing exporter?

Whom are you trying to fool？

China as a clothing exporter is way ahead of India，even though the clothing industry is no longer of interest to a China that's rapidly climbing up the value chain。

India can pick up some crumbs left over by China。

India pips China, others in cost competitiveness in spinning

India has pipped China and other major textile suppliers in competitiveness in the capital-intensive spinning segment, a latest study said, further bolstering the notion that enhancing the share of the organised sector in textile manufacturing results in lower costs. However, senior industry executives said systemic obstacles in the form of archic labour laws, frequent power outages and other infrastructural bottlenecks outweigh the inherent cost competitiveness and prevents growth in the country’s share in the global trade, senior industry executives said.

India pips China, others in cost competitiveness in spinning



India takes lesson from China to lure workers to garment industry

Despite the country’s vast, young labour force, India’s garment industry has struggled to realise its potential, burdened by crippling power shortages, poor infrastructure, high worker turnover and fragmentation. But with costs in China rising and concerns mounting about Bangladeshi working conditions, Indian companies are looking to new strategies to capitalise on what they see as a window of opportunity.

India takes lesson from China to lure workers to garment industry - FT.com

 

[cirr]

Rupee hits record low, breaches 61 per dollar mark

Last updated on: July 31, 2013 11:36 IST

The rupee on Wednesday dropped by 73 paise to 61.20 in the late morning deals on persistent month-end dollar demand from importers on the back of strengthening in the US currency overseas.

Rupee hits record low, breaches 61 per dollar mark - Rediff.com Business

Oh，dear。。。。。。

 

[cirr]

Oh，nooooooooooooooooooo

Rupee at record closing low; worst week in nearly 2 years

Last updated on: August 02, 2013 18:17 IST

The rupee fell to a record closing low on Friday, posting its worst week in 22 months, raising concerns the RBI is losing the battle to prop up the currency while the government has yet to take any meaningful measures to bring in inflows.

The rupee weakened ahead of key US employment data, which will help shape expectations about when the Federal Reserve will start tapering down its monetary stimulus.

The currency fell 3.4 per cent this week, and is below the levels at which it was trading on July 15 when the Reserve Bank of India unveiled its cash tightening steps to defend the currency.

Investors have started questioning the central bank's resolve after Governor Duvvuri Subbarao said this week it would roll back measures to defend the rupee if the currency stabilises, while the government has yet to take steps such as a sale of overseas bonds to ensure real money flows.

The RBI has, instead, been relying on interventions to support the rupee. Traders said the central bank likely intervened again on Friday as the rupee came within a whisker of its record low of 61.21 seen on July 8.

"The RBI is sprinkling water. It should intervene in a massive way for a day or two to support the currency and bring it back to a comfortable level to hit speculators hard," said KN Dey, a senior forex consultant.

The partially convertible rupee closed at 61.10/11 per dollar compared with 60.43/44 on Thursday.

Investors will focus on dollar movements after the U.S. jobs report. The monsoon session of parliament is due to start on Monday, with important legislation such as a food security bill pending.

In the offshore non-deliverable forwards, the one-month contract was at 61.66, while the three-month was at 62.56.

In the currency futures market, the most-traded near-month dollar/rupee contracts on the National Stock Exchange, the MCX-SX and the United Stock Exchange all closed around 61.45 with a total traded volume of $2.6 billion.

Rupee at record closing low; worst week in nearly 2 years - Rediff.com Business

 

[TopCat]

Seems like it will hit 70 soon

 

[cirr]

Seems like it will hit 70 soon

If so，India‘s GDP would be stuck at some 1.8 trillion dollars for 5 years。

 

[Abhishek_]

AMD Opens New Global Design Center



AMD has opened a new design center as part of phase two of its transformation.

AMD said on Thursday that it has launched a new global design center in India. It features "world-class" lab facilities dedicated to furthering both software and hardware APU-focused innovations. The news arrives after AMD introduced a dual-core APU for fanless devices, the GX-210JA, with a maximum TDP of 6 watts and an expected average power usage of around 3 watts.

The company said on Thursday that its new design center is actually located at Raheja Mindspace, HITEC City, Madhapur, in the heart of Hyderabad's technology hub. Hyderabad is the capital and largest city of the southern Indian state of Andhra Pradesh.

"AMD is committed to providing our customers with innovative, tailored technology solutions that empower people and deliver exceptional experiences," said AMD president and CEO Rory Read. "Our Hyderabad Design Centre will play an important part in that mission as the team works in concert with our other design centers around the world to deliver AMD's next round of innovative products."

The new facility features 175,000 square feet of engineering labs, equipment and office space for hundreds of engineers. It joins the other design center AMD has established in Bangalore, and has sales offices located in New Delhi and Mumbai.

"Our design centers in both Hyderabad and Bangalore are key design and development hubs for our business," said Madhusudan Atre, corporate vice president, Design Engineering at AMD. "Like our talented engineering teams around the world, the engineers working in AMD's new Hyderabad Design Center are every bit as focused and committed to the sustained delivery of hardware and software innovations that can help drive the company's business forward."

Just weeks ago, Read said in the company's second quarter 2013 financial results that it has entered phase two of its "restructure, accelerate, and ultimately transform" realignment project. Now that the restructuring aspect is complete, AMD will be able to focus on accelerating its business in the second half of the year. The company may even return to profitability in the third quarter.

"Our focus on restructuring and transforming AMD resulted in improved financial results," Read said. "Our performance in the second quarter was driven by opportunities in our new high-growth and traditional PC businesses. Looking ahead, we will continue to deliver a strong value proposition to our established customers and also reach new customers as we diversify our business."

AMD said that for 3Q 2103, it expects to see revenue to increase 22 percent, plus or minus 3 percent, sequentially.

AMD Opens New Global Design Center

 

[cirr]

Rupee drops to record low of 61.79, all eyes on Reserve Bank

By Agencies | 6 Aug, 2013

MUMBAI: The rupee dropped to an all-time record low of 61.79 per dollar in the late morning session on fresh dollar demand from banks and importers amid weakness of dollar in the overseas market and fall in the equity market.

The rupee resumed lower at 61.05 per dollar as against the last closing level of 60.88 per dollar at the Interbank Foreign Exchange (Forex) Market and dropped further to an all-time record low of 61.79 per dollar before quoting at 61.43 at 1030 hrs.
There has been no sign of RBI intervention to prevent the fall in the rupee so far in the session, dealers said.

The rupee may face some resistance at around 61.85 levels, which if broken can take it below 62 levels, a senior dealer at a state-run bank said.

Some traders speculated that the dollar buying was also seen on the back of the large difference between onshore and offshore forward rates, which have given rise to an arbitrage opportunity.
The intra-day lowest of 61.21 was recorded on July 8, 2013. "Basically, we have been concerned about the rupee behaviour for sure and have been observing that the RBI's tight money policy has probably not helped beyond a point," said Deven Choksey, MD, K R Choksey Securities in an interview with ET Now.

"I believe that monetary policy has a very literal role to play unless the real economy starts improving, given the fact that inflows into the real economy are not taking place" he added.

Choksey is of the view that we feel little nervous at this point of time largely on account of rupee, and if it falls further some of the equity portfolios which are packed with rupee they may face selling pressure which could bring the market down further.
Fresh dollar demand from banks and importers in view of fall in the equity market mainly affected the rupee value against the dollar, a forex dealer said.

In New York, the dollar fell broadly yesterday as a better-than-expected reading on activity in the US service sector failed to overcome last week's below-consensus report on job growth in the US and its implications for a slowing of Federal Reserve stimulus.

 

[IndoCarib]

MUMBAI/BANGALORE: The slowdown in the Indian realty sector has surprisingly not hampered the development of new malls across the country. India has 570 operational malls (as of May 2013) with a total area of 180 million sq ft compared to just 225 malls that were up and running five years ago, according to numbers collated by a real estate consultancy firm which were shared with TOI exclusively.

Malls more than double in five years - The Times of India

 

[cirr]

Mumbai August 10, 2013

As slowdown bites, malls suffer high mortality rate

As slowdown bites, malls suffer high mortality rate | Business Standard

 

[shuttler]

Fresh government remedies fail to stem rupee's slide


NEW DELHI/MUMBAI | Mon Aug 12, 2013 6:50pm IST

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The rupee weakened towards a record low on Monday after Finance Minister P. Chidambaram unveiled proposals to narrow the current account deficit in a bid to defend the currency as concerns about the slowing economy deepened.

In parliament on Monday, Chidambaram vowed to contain the current account deficit at $70 billion for the fiscal year ending in March, or an estimated 3.7 percent of gross domestic product (GDP).

That would be well below the record high 4.8 percent seen in the previous fiscal year.

Chidambaram proposed to meet the target with a slew of anticipated measures, such as easing rules on obtaining loans abroad and raising deposits from Indians abroad.

Although a lack of specifics had initially disappointed investors - sending the rupee to 61.30 per dollar and not far from a record low of 61.80 hit last week - Chidambaram followed up with details later in the day that helped soothe some of the concerns.

He said the combined proposals unveiled on Monday would bring in a total of $11 billion this fiscal year, pushing up his estimate of capital inflows for the year to $75 billion.

The rupee's defence has so far hinged on the Reserve Bank of India's risky gambit of draining cash and shoring up short-term interest rates, but both measures have failed to prop up the currency, making government action crucial in investors' eyes.

Yet Manmohan Singh's minority coalition is facing political gridlock ahead of elections due by next year, with the current session of parliament that started earlier this month rocked by tensions with Pakistan across the disputed border of Kashmir and clashes in the Jammu region.

"I want to make it clear that while we have a problem, there is no ground for panic," Chidambaram said in a late briefing with reporters, referring to the current account deficit (CAD).

As widely expected, Chidambaram said India would seek to reduce imports of gold, silver and "non-essential" imports, while also curbing demand for oil.

He also proposed raising funds abroad to boost capital inflows, allowing public sector financial firms to sell debt to finance long-term infrastructure projects, raising money via deposits targeted at Indian citizens abroad, and liberalising guidelines for external commercial borrowings.

Chidambaram put some numbers to his proposals, as some analysts had expressed scepticism about whether India would be able to contain the deficit to the extent pledged on Monday.

"Bolder measures are required," said Rupa Rege Nitsure, chief economist at Bank of Baroda in Mumbai.

"Given the massive depreciation in the currency, the upward bias in interest rates and the policy uncertainty in the pre-election year, we cannot expect any revival."

THE FED EFFECT

India's latest measures on the current account deficit come after data earlier in the day showed the country's exports rose 11.64 percent in July from a year earlier, while imports fell, keeping the trade deficit at $12.27 billion, almost the same as June and in line with expectations.

A weaker rupee should help exports, while government measures to curb imports, including earlier ones that raised duties on gold, could also help narrow the trade deficit.

But the economy remains a key concern, with growth at 5 percent, the slowest in a decade, and analysts said India needed to tackle longer-term fiscal and economic reforms, such as raising fuel prices.

Data late on Monday showed industrial output in June contracted 2.2 percent from a year earlier, nearly twice as much as expected, though at least the consumer price index slowed in July, easing some concerns about inflation.

More worrisome, capital goods production, a barometer for investments in the economy, contracted an annual 6.6 percent in June from a year earlier.

A weak rupee and slowing growth could raise the prospect that more foreign investors will exit India as the Federal Reserve is widely expected to start rolling back its U.S. monetary stimulus as early as next month, denting the appeal of emerging markets.

Foreign investors have sold a net $11.6 billion of Indian debt and equities since late May, when the rupee started its decline.

"Weak domestic growth prospects suggest that portfolio equity inflows and overseas borrowings will be much lower this year. Hence, we expect net capital inflows to slow, which will make financing the current account deficit difficult," Nomura said in a note on Monday.

The RBI unveiled steps on July 15 unveiled steps to raise short-term interest rates and drain cash to shore up the rupee, and announced additional steps on July 23.

It followed up again last Thursday, announcing weekly sales of cash management bills to drain further cash.

Those measures have sent bond yields surging, raising the prospect of higher borrowing costs which could weigh further on the economy. The benchmark 10-year bond yield is up three-quarters of a percentage point since the RBI's first steps last month.

"The RBI has taken a number of measures to increase the interest rate at the short end and this has contained the depreciation of the rupee to some extent," Chidambaram had earlier told parliament, struggling to be heard amid loud protests from some lawmakers.

"However, we believe that we have to do more to contain the CAD to reduce volatility in the currency market and to stabilise the rupee," he added

 

[shuttler]

Balance of payment woes hurt rupee rescue

MUMBAI | Mon Aug 12, 2013 9:51am IST

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With only enough cash in the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) to pay for seven months of imports, $172 billion of debt falling due in the next eight months and weak fund inflows, the balance of payments position is undermining its ability to defend a tumbling rupee.

A heavy dependence on imported energy, gold and technology means India has historically run a current account deficit, which it has funded by attracting foreign money into stocks, bonds and corporate investment.

But as global investors turn away from emerging markets in anticipation of the U.S. Federal Reserve starting to wind back its stimulus, India's weak external position makes it more vulnerable to outflows and a balance of payments deficit.

India has $280 billion of foreign exchange reserves. That is only enough to cover seven months of import bills, by far the lowest of the BRICs, the four major emerging market economies.

That has left the RBI with limited firepower to support a rupee which has fallen 12 percent since the start of May and hit a record low of 61.80 to the dollar last week.

India "can't afford to defend the currency much with such little reserves," a policymaker said, declining to be identified as he was not authorised to speak with media.

The RBI is said to consider three months of import cover to be the minimum acceptable level, but some central bank insiders are said to be uncomfortable that reserves have run down to the lowest in terms of import cover since 1996.

"The lower import cover continues to be a source of discomfort," said another policymaker.

"We would like to increase the import cover. If there is a gap in the BOP, then the currency will have to take a hit."

That said, India is not yet looking at a repeat of its 1991 crisis. Then, with only enough reserves to cover three weeks of imports, the government was forced to pledge its gold in order to pay its bills and had to push through reforms to start opening up the economy.

VULNERABLE

In the fiscal year that started in April, stocks have attracted a net $2.3 billion in inflows, but if that changes India could find itself with a balance of payments deficit. Debt has seen a net outflow of about $5.7 billion.

Stocks account for a whopping $220 billion of foreign holdings in India, according to Bank of America-Merrill Lynch. Debt makes up a comparatively small $81 billion in foreign assets, government data shows.

India ran balance of payments (BOP) deficits in 2008/09 and 2011/12. It posted a small surplus of $3.8 billion in the 2012/13 year that ended in March, but some economists expect it to slip back into deficit this fiscal year.

All up by the end of this fiscal year, India needs to refinance or repay $172 billion of liabilities -- such as foreign borrowings, trade credit, and private debts -- which is almost 45 percent of its overall external borrowings and equivalent to 59 percent of its reserves.

"We are vulnerable now," said Abheek Barua, chief economist at HDFC Bank in New Delhi.

"If this vulnerability manifests into one large default on domestic loans or external commercial borrowings, it could threaten a sovereign rating downgrade and that could trigger a balance of payments crisis," Barua said

Any corporate default is seen as more likely to be on domestic debt, but the risk is it would spoil the broader investment environment and hit already-slowing economic growth.

Investors are hoping the appointment of Raghuram Rajan, a former chief economist of the IMF, as RBI governor from September helps accelerate measures to stabilise the rupee.

Rajan has spoken of a sovereign or quasi-sovereign bond issue to attract dollar inflows, widely seen as an effective if costly stop-gap measure to support the rupee. Outgoing Governor Duvvuri Subbarao has spoken against issuing sovereign bonds.

CURRENT ACCOUNT DEFICIT

While the government has put curbs gold imports and taken other measures to narrow the gap on external accounts, investors and economists believe much more is needed to attract long-term funds to help balance the external accounts.

The current account is in persistent deficit -- there was a shortfall of $88 billion, or a record 4.8 percent of GDP in 2012/13 -- but there are limits to what can be done to lower it.

The bill for oil, the largest and most inelastic of India's imports, was $169.4 billion in 2012/13, and a weaker rupee will only push up the cost further.

HDFC Bank's Barua expects India to end up with a balance of payment deficit of $12 billion to $15 billion in 2013/14.

"We are not close to the crisis situation seen in 1991, but it cannot be ruled out of a realm of possibility," he said.

 

[IndoCarib]

Indian economy improving, China losing steam: OECD

London: The Indian economy is witnessing a positive momentum while neighbouring China's growth is losing steam, according to Paris-based think tank OECD.

The latest reading from the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) comes amid rising concerns about India's growth prospects on account of the falling rupee and relatively sluggish investments.

Indian economy improving, China losing steam: OECD

 

[IndoCarib]

BBC News - Indian brand making one of world's best-selling biscuits

Indian brand making one of world's best-selling biscuits

 

[Imran Khan]

1 US Dollar equals
63.13 Indian Rupee

currencyconverter.com