Food inflation falls to 0.42%, RBI may cut rates next month
NEW DELHI – India's food inflation rate in the third week of December rose at its slowest pace in more than five years, bolstering hopes of a steady easing in overall price pressures that would let the central bank focus on stimulating growth.
The wholesale price index-based food inflation rate in the week ended Dec. 17 fell sharply to 0.42% year-on-year, compared with 1.82% in the preceding week, as prices of fruits and vegetables eased, government data showed Thursday. This was the eighth successive weekly fall in the inflation rate and the reading is the lowest since April 2006, analysts said.
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The food inflation print is the lowest ever in the new series that was adopted in 2010 with 2004-2005 as the base year, said Shubhada Rao, chief economist at Yes Bank.
Food inflation had last risen less than 1% in January 2008.
Analysts expect food inflation to ease further, helped by seasonal factors and a comparison with high index levels last year.
"Food inflation was anyway a supply-side problem, and we still have to see if the Reserve Bank of India's tightening has had a significant impact on manufactured products inflation," said Amol Agarwal, an economist at STCI Primary Dealership.
Despite several interest-rate increases over the past 21 months, overall price pressures had shown little sign of easing and the central bank has consistently blamed structural issues as the main culprit for rising prices.
Headline inflation remained above 9% for 12 months through November, but economic growth is stuttering in Asia's third-largest economy.
A sharp fall in the Indian rupee against the U.S. dollar has added to the inflation pressure as import costs have ballooned, widening the trade gap.
The RBI's decision to hold the key policy rate steady at its Dec. 16 review meeting indicates its focus has now shifted to economic growth, which decelerated to 6.9% in the July-September period, the slowest in more than two years.
Food inflation falls to 0.42%, RBI may cut rates next month