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According to a study by US banking group Citi, India will be the world's largest economy within 39 years. Indian GDP in 2050, measured by purchasing power parity (PPP), will be $85.97 trillion. China, in second place, will have a GDP of $ 80.02 trillion and the US $ 39.07 trillion (see chart).
With an estimated population in 2050 of 1.63 billion, India will thus have a per capita income of over $53,000 - in the range of today's wealthiest countries like Switzerland and Norway. Sounds too good to be true? Of course it is.
NEW DELHI — India's industrial output growth skidded to a two-year low in September, data showed Friday, as a string of interest rate rises took their toll on Asia's third-largest economy.
The country's 1.9 percent industrial expansion in September undershot market forecasts of a 3.5 percent jump and added to a gloomy picture of an economy that is losing traction due to 13 interest rate hikes since March 2010.
"There's a clear slowdown, definitely monetary policy is biting," D.K. Joshi, chief economist at leading Indian credit rating agency Crisil, told AFP.
The sluggish output figures, the weakest since September 2009, also undercut hopes that emerging markets such as India can power global growth as Europe and the United States struggle.
Earlier this week, neighbouring China reported industrial output rose 13.2 percent year-on-year in the first 10 months of 2011, slower than the 14.2 percent growth recorded in the first nine months of the year.
India's manufacturing production rose 2.1 percent in September, but output of capital goods such as factory equipment -- a key pointer to future activity -- as well as consumer goods and mines all shrank.
"We are concerned that the pace of growth in the economy has gone down," senior government economic planning advisor Montek Singh Ahluwalia said.
The weak figures buttressed expectations that India's hawkish central bank would pause in hiking rates to combat inflation even though it remains stubbornly high at nearly 10 percent, analysts said.
The bank signalled that last month's quarter-point rate rise could be the last for 2011 and that worries about growth would assume greater prominence.
The Reserve Bank of India's anti-inflation battle has been one of the most aggressive globally, but has had little obvious impact.
On Friday, food inflation fell nearly half a percentage point from the previous week but still stood at a hefty 11.81 percent for the week.
Overall inflation, measured monthly, stands at 9.72 percent with some analysts expecting a slight rise when figures are released next week.
Even with high inflation, "with the global economic scenario also deteriorating, the central bank should not only pause but begin to reverse its interest hikes," said Chandrajit Banerjee, director general of the Confederation of Indian Industry, which lobbies on behalf of companies.
Banerjee warned about the impact of the rate rises on investment and demand but economists said the central bank was unlikely to start unwinding the rate hikes.
"With inflation still elevated and susceptible to upside risks, the central bank is not about to cut rates and will keep them at current levels for an extended period of time," said HSBC chief India economist Leif Eskesen.
The Reserve Bank has revised its estimates for economic growth for this financial year to March 2012 to 7.6 percent, down from an earlier 8.0 percent, saying the economy is "clearly seeing slowing growth."
But many economists estimate growth could be seven percent or even lower.
The string of rate rises has weakened consumer demand during the ongoing festive season across a range of sectors, from cars to property, as loans become costlier while inflation erodes incomes.
The latest figures cap a string of data showing the economy losing ground. Car sales in October fell nearly 24 percent, the most in close to 11 years, while October's annual export growth was the slowest in two years.
The weakening economy has put pressure on federal finances with doubts mounting about the government's ability to meet its goal of containing the fiscal deficit to 4.6 percent of gross domestic product as tax revenues fall.
The central bank made it clear reducing inflation was its top priority and "if growth had to moderate that was the price," Brian Jackson, senior emerging markets strategist at Royal Bank of Canada in Hong Kong, told AFP.
"Now, in general, a slowdown is going on," he said.