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Exports should be $400 billions in the next 3-4 years. That will be cool.

Just the IT services exports can reach $200 billions in the next few years if we capture the coming opportunities.
 
India's food price inflation declines to single digit at 9.52 per cent news

Food price inflation in the country, which resumed its declining trend during the latter half of February 2011, declined further and stood at 9.52 per cent during the week ended 26 February 2011 from 10.39 per cent in the previous week.

Food price inflation in the country stood at 22.02 per cent during the comparable week of the previous year.

The decline in food price inflation during the week has been due to lower prices of condiments and spices, fruits and vegetables, some pulses and cereals.

Food articles have a weight of 14.34 in the wholesale price index (WPI) of commodities while primary articles have a weight of 20.12, non-food articles a weight of 4.26 and fuel and power group a weight of 14.91.

Build-up of inflation for the `food articles' group so far during the current financial year (beginning 1 April 2010) was also lower at 8.52 per cent against 20.04 per cent in the similar period of the previous year.

The index for the 'food articles' group declined 0.6 per cent to 178.4 (provisional) during the week ended 26 February 2011 from 179.5 (provisional) in the previous week, due to lower prices of condiments and spices (down 7 per cent), fruits and vegetables and masur (down 2 per cent each) and rice, barley, moong, gram and arhar (down 1 per cent each). However, the prices of egg, fish-marine, bajra, fish-inland, poultry chicken and jowar (up 2 per cent each) and maize, milk and tea (up 1 per cent each) moved up.

Inflation rate for the 'non-food articles' group also edged lower to 29.85 per cent during the week ended 26 February 2011 from 30.81 per cent in the previous week. It was 14.71 per cent during the comparable week of the previous year.

Build-up of inflation for the `non-food articles' group so far during the current financial year was 23.04 per cent against 13.34 per cent in the similar period of the previous year.

The index for the 'non-food articles' group declined 0.8 per cent to 185.3 (provisional) from 186.8 (provisional) in the previous week, due to lower prices of flowers (down 19 per cent), raw rubber (down 3 per cent), raw silk (down 2 per cent) and sunflower and raw jute (down 1 per cent each). However, the prices of castor seed (up 6 per cent), niger seed (up 4 per cent), copra and soyabean (up 2 per cent each) and gaur seed, groundnut seed and fodder (up 1 per cent each) moved up.

Inflation rate for the 'fuel and power' group stood lower at 9.48 per cent during the week ended 26 February 2011 against 12.56 per cent during the previous week. It was 12.35 per cent in the comparable week of the previous year.

Build-up of inflation for the `fuel and power' group so far during the current financial year was 8.78 per cent against 13.08 per cent in the similar week of the previous year.

Inflation rate for the `primary articles' group stood at 13.96 per cent during the week ended 26 February 2011 against 14.85 per cent during the previous week. It was 21.68 per cent during the similar week in the previous year.

Build-up of inflation for the primary articles group so far during the financial year (beginning 1 April 2011) was 11.70 per cent against 19.99 per cent during the comparable period of the [previous year.

The index for the primary articles group declined 0.6 per cent to 186.1 (provisional) during the week ended 26 February 2011 from 187.2 (provisional) during the previous week.

domain-b.com : India's food price inflation declines to single digit at 9.52 per cent
 
Exports top $200 bn, CAD seen at 2.5% of GDP

India’s exports surpassed its annual target of $200 billion during the first eleven months of the current fiscal, up 31.4 per cent, mainly on account of recovery in the US, EU and Japan over the past six months.
According to Morgan Stanley research: “The strong bounce in exports reflects the recovery in G3 over the past six months. Other countries in the region have seen a similar rise in exports in the recent period.”

Exports in February were up by 49.8 per cent at $23.6 billion year-on-year, taking the cumulative export figure during April-February to $208.2 billion, crossing the yearly target of $200 billion. Imports rose 21.2 per cent to $38.1 billion during the month, taking April-February import figures to $305.3 billion, up 18 per cent during the period, commerce secretary Rahul Khullar said.

“We have crossed the $200 billion mark. The current forecast for the fiscal is $230-235 billion...In imports, we will end up (the fiscal) closer to $350 billion... On the whole, we are looking at balance of trade at $105-115 billion,” he said.

The trade gap for the April-February period stood at $97.1 billion. Khullar said the import figures will get revised once definitive figures are formulated. The sectors which performed well during the first eleven months included engineering, petroleum and oil lubricants (POL), cotton yarn and made ups, electronics and plastics among others.

Khullar said engineering exports, which constitute about 25 per cent of the total export, are doing remarkably well and are expected to touch $55-56 billion by the end of this year.

However, Khullar said, there are a few sectors where exports are still in the uncomfortable zone including iron ore, fruits and vegetables, and cotton yarn on account of various restrictions on these goods.

He said that there would be an increase in import numbers in March because “I expect a correction of about $10 billion because of oil prices and the fact that import data was not captured for couple of months correctly.” Due to increasing imports, India’s Current Account Deficit (CAD) would be around 2.5 to 2.8 per cent of the GDP by 2010-11 end.

Talking on levy of MAT on SEZ developers and units, Khullar said, “The rules of game are changed mid-stream...I don’t rule out the possibility that somebody will drag us to court (on the issue of imposition of MAT on SEZs). No body is going to sit back and just watch somebody taking tax away”.

Exports top $200 bn, CAD seen at 2.5% of GDP
 
India’s bulging grain stocks raise exports hopes

New Delhi: India’s bulging grain stocks prior to end-March harvest season make a strong case for lifting export curbs, but analysts say it is unlikely due to political compulsions ahead of state elections in coming months.

At 17.2 million tonnes, wheat stocks on 1 March were more than double the 8.2 million tones target, government sources said on Wednesday, while rice stocks rose to 28.75 million tonnes against a target of 11.8 million tonnes.

The sources said they believe India, the world’s second-biggest rice and wheat producer, can now afford to allow grains exports, banned since 2007.

India is on course for its second-highest food grains harvest in 2010-11, including a record 81.47 million tonnes wheat, which could help the government rein in food prices and allow overseas sale of wheat and rice.

“Healthy stocks before the start of harvesting season could help lift the export ban on wheat,” Veena Sharma, secretary of the Roller Flour Millers Federation of India, told Reuters.

Sharma said the government might review its wheat exports ban decision in May, when the harvest season ends.

India’s food price index eased to 10.39% in the year to 19 February, having climbed to a year’s high of 18.32% in late December, government data showed last Thursday.

Analysts, however, said the export curbs are likely to stay.

High food prices pose a political challenge, drawing voter ire ahead of state elections in coming months that will help determine the strength of the ruling Congress party-led coalition for the rest of its term.

“I don’t see an immediate withdrawal of the export ban on wheat despite the record production,” said Veeresh Hiremath, senior analyst with the Hyderabad-based broking Karvy Comtrade.

He also said the government would be keen to observe how procurement of the grain shapes up when harvesting commences later this month.

State-run Food Corp of India, the main grain procurement agency, buys wheat from local farmers between March and May, while it procures rice throughout the year from October.

The government buys rice and wheat from farmers to build reserves for emergency, run various welfare programmes and protect farmers from distress sale.
 

India's engineers to lead export surge


MUMBAI - Brand India is glistening globally as exports in January soared by 32.4% over year-on-year, positioning the country to cross the export target of US$200 billion for the current fiscal year ending March, and likely to smash a record $225 billion. The government now aims to double exports by 2014.

"Measures undertaken by exporters such as increasing productivity, reducing cost and moving up the value chain are now yielding dividends," Minister of State for Commerce and Industry Jyotiraditya Scindia told Asia Times Online. "Various initiatives to reduce transaction cost of Indian exports through a host of measures have also added to it."

India's exports rose 29.5% to $164.7 billion in the first three


quarters of the current fiscal and are likely to remain robust for the next two years, according to the Economic Survey for fiscal 2010-11. Current indications are that India will not only achieve the target of $200 billion but surpass it in 2010-11, it said.

Mumbai-born Scindia, at 40 years of age one of India's more efficient and innovative young leaders, said in an e-mail to Asia Times Online that the country's strategy has been to deepen global market access through trade and economic cooperation agreements. India has recently signed free-trade agreements with the Association of South-East Asian Nations (ASEAN), South Korea, Malaysia and Japan.

Similar trade pacts are being planned for the European Union, Israel, Australia, Indonesia and New Zealand, according to Scindia. "When completed, such agreements would cover over a hundred countries spread across five continents," he said. "These will add to the diversification strategy as well." (For a full text of the interview with Scindia, click here.)

Scindia emphasized that market diversification is necessary for India to ensure sustained export growth, given sluggish demand from traditional markets of North America and Europe. In contrast, emerging economies are expected to grow at about 6.4% to 6.7% GDP annually.

"Our focus [for exports] will be on Malaysia, Thailand, Philippines, Indonesia, South Korea in Asia," Scindia said. "Egypt and South Africa in the African continent; Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Mexico and Uruguay in South America."

The diversification strategy appears to be working. The Federation of Indian Export Organisations (FIEO) described the export score for January of $20.6 billion as a "huge jump", with Indian exporters defying odds of growth in an ailing global economy. The 45-year old FIEO has a membership of over 13,000 exporters, which contribute about 70% of India's exports.

Read more at the link below:
Asia Times Online :: South Asia news, business and economy from India and Pakistan
 
For last few years export is crossing the expectation of the Govt of India and now projecting $ 450 billion export by 2013/14. Is such high export good for the country? :undecided:

'Govt aiming to increase exports to $450 billion in 3 years'

'Govt aiming to increase exports to $450-bn in 3 years' - The Economic Times

Yes, why not.

Exports and imports both are good for the economy if the overall balance of trade is maintained.

Export means you have value addition happening in your country, that can only be good.

Imports means you are getting something cheaper or better than you can do in your country or importing a needed commodity that is not available locally.
 
For last few years export is crossing the expectation of the Govt of India and now projecting $ 450 billion export by 2013/14. Is such high export good for the country? :undecided:

depends, if our exports are low value or raw materials... esp if raw materials, it may nt be a great thing.... but if our exports major chunk is value added , absolutely great. Thats the reason our trade with china is imbalanced and not ideal... we export raw iron ore and import value added products.... u dont want to be that..... on a whole we have a good prospect for exports growth... many may not know that Manmohan singhs PHD thesis was on EXPOrts..... no wonder why he stresses so much importance on exports growth.
 
Forex kitty gets a $1.8 bn push


MUMBAI: Foreign exchange reserves rose $1.8 billion during the week ended March 4 to $285.1 billion, largely on account of revaluation of non-dollar assets in reserves. The government has withdrawn its surplus balances with the Reserve Bank of India, the latest update on the financial sector developments released by the central bank on Friday shows.

The latest figures indicate that of the total foreign exchange reserves comprising foreign currency assets (FCA), gold and special drawing rights (SDR — reserves currency with the International Monetary Fund) rose $1.54 billion, reflecting the valuation gains in non-dollar assets. The value of SDR and the reserve capital with IMF rose $28 million and $12 million, respectively, during the week.

Forex kitty gets a $1.8 bn push - Economic Times
 
Mukesh Ambani appointed Bank of America director

Reliance Industries Chairman Mukesh Ambani has been appointed as a director on board of Bank of America - the first non-American on the board of the one of the largest financial institutions in the world.


"BofA's shareholders will benefit from the global perspective Ambani brings to our board.


He has demonstrated expertise in risk management and strategic planning across a diverse range of businesses, including energy, information and communications technology, and retail networks," BofA Chairman Charles O Holliday Jr said in a statement.


Ambani is a member of the Indian Prime Minister's Council on Trade and Industry. Among others, he is a member of the Indo-US CEOs Forum, the co-chair of the Japan-India Business Leader's Forum, and India-Russia CEO Council.


The business tycoon also serves on the Foundation Board of the World Economic Forum.


"I am delighted to join the board of BofA. It is a privilege and a great honour for me, as the first non-American citizen to join the board of one of the world's largest financial institutions. I look forward to contributing to the growth and progress of BofA," the BofA statement quoated Ambani as saying.


BofA Chief Executive Officer Brian T Moynihan said the management team looks forward to benefiting from Ambani's judgement and experience.


Ambani would stand for election at annual meeting of shareholders of BofA.

Mukesh Ambani appointed Bank of America director | Deccan Chronicle
 
Food inflation down to 3 and 1/2 month low

Food inflation fell to a three-and-a-half-month low of 9.42 per cent for the week ended March 5 as prices of potato and pulses declined.

The drop in inflation, which is still not in the comfort zone, is viewed as a breather for the government grappling with high price rise of essential commodities.

Food inflation in the previous week was 9.52 per cent. After remaining in double digits for several weeks, food inflation came down to single digit in the last week of February.

This is the lowest rate of food price rise for the week ended November 27 last year when it was 8.69 per cent. The food inflation was 20.59 per cent in the comparable period in 2010.

During the week under review, prices of potato went down by over 9 per cent year-on-year, while that of pulses fell by 3.05 per cent.

The government had earlier exuded confidence that the expected record crop of wheat and pulses will help stabilise the rise in prices of food items. Food inflation remained in the double digits for most of 2010.

However, for the week ended March 5, prices of other food items continued to rise.

Cereal prices went up by 3.88 per cent year-on-year, while rice became dearer by 2.75 per cent. Price of wheat also rose marginally by 0.69 per cent on an annual basis.

While there has been drop in potato prices, vegetables on a whole became dearer by 8.71 per cent on an annual basis. Onion was expensive by 6.65 per cent.

During the week under review, fruit prices rose by 19.39 per cent year-on-year. Milk also became dearer by 7.16 per cent.

Egg, meat and fish prices went up by 13.10 per cent on an annual basis.

Meanwhile, prices of non-food articles went by 23.03 per cent year-on-year. While fuel and power became dearer by 12.79 per cent, petrol became costly by 23.14 per cent.

The headline inflation in the country has remained above 8 per cent since February 2010. According to latest data, the overall inflation in February this year was 8.31 per cent.

The RBI in its quarterly review on Thursday revised upwards the inflation forecast for March-end to 8 per cent from 7 per cent projected earlier.


Read more at: Food inflation down to 3 and 1/2 month low - NDTV Profit
 
Share of manufacturing in India's GDP to go up to 25 per cent by 2020: Anand Sharma new


The new manufacturing policy aims to raise the share of manufacturing in the country's gross domestic product (GDP) to at least 25 per cent within the current decade, commerce and industry minister Anand Sharma said.

Manufacturing currently contributes to just about 16 per cent of India's gross domestic product (GDP) despite record growth of 11 per cent over the last few years, he said while delivering the keynote address at the first 'Green Manufacturing Summit' on product, process and technology in New Delhi today.

India's manufacturing sector is expected to grow at 9 per cent in the current financial year, he said.

This is despite the country being ranked second in the world in terms of manufacturing competitiveness, he added.

The policy thrust on manufacturing is not just as an economic imperative, but also as a crucial social imperative integral to our inclusive growth agenda, he said.

"Manufacturing sector engages 11 per cent of India's workforce and contributes to a fifth of our GDP and nearly half of our exports. In the next decade, 100 million people are set to join the workforce and the manufacturing sector alone holds the potential of providing gainful employment to these people," he pointed out.

He said the draft manufacturing policy is ready, which will shortly be discussed at a high level committee on manufacturing to be chaired by the prime minister.

The key objective of this policy will be to enhance the sectoral share of manufacturing to at least 25 per cent of GDP within this decade and to double the current employment in this sector. In the next 5 years, India will witness investments of nearly $200 billion in manufacturing, he added.

Asia, he said, would become the fulcrum of global growth, having a distinct advantage of demography and the availability of rich human resource and a large trained scientific manpower, which has the ability to innovate and adapt to new technologies.

During his deliberation, he also emphasised that the ASEAN has also re-oriented itself effectively as an integrated value chain of manufacturing and in certain segments, especially electronic hardware manufacturing and automobile engineering. They are a force to reckon with, he said.


The Indian economy has seen momentous changes, which has been spearheaded largely by a revolution in the service industry. It is a tribute to the intellectual genius of our people that software development has become synonymous with India," he said.

Emphasising the need of green manufacturing, he said, India has made a commitment to follow a low-carbon growth strategy, which will be a key agenda in the 12th Plan.

There is an emerging global market for environmental goods and services, estimated at $190 billion, which will see an annual growth of 15 per cent, he said.

However, the whole issue of environmental technologies needs to be looked at in the context of the monumental challenges of development and poverty alleviation, he added.

domain-b.com : Share of manufacturing in India's GDP to go up to 25 per cent by 2020: Anand Sharma
 
India Said to Start Next Year With $7.3 Billion Cash Surplus - Bloomberg

The Indian government is likely to open the year starting April 1 with a minimum cash surplus of 330 billion rupees ($7.3 billion), a finance ministry official said yesterday, bolstering its effort to slash the budget deficit to the lowest in four years.

The government won’t borrow substantially in the second- half of the next financial year to avoid competing for funds in a period when demand for loans from the private sector typically rises, said the official, who declined to be identified as the budget information was confidential.

India’s bonds have rallied in the past two months as higher revenue collections enable the government to cut its budget deficit. Oil prices, which have surged 23 percent in the past year, could derail plans as government subsidizes state-run firms for selling fuel at lower than market prices.

The surplus “is positive but the risk of borrowings overshooting next year remains because of food and fuel subsidies,” Shubhada Rao, chief economist at Mumbai-based Yes Bank Ltd. said in an interview yesterday. “The surge in oil prices is clearly worrying.”

Finance Minister Pranab Mukherjee forecast Feb. 28 the deficit will narrow to 4.6 percent of gross domestic product in the 12 months through March 2012, the lowest since 2008. The deficit is pegged at 5.1 percent in the current financial year.

Borrowing Calendar
The government and central bank officials are scheduled to meet on March 25 to fix the borrowing calendar for the first six months of next fiscal year, the official said. Borrowings for the year ending March 31 may be lower than forecast in Mukherjee’s Feb. 28 budget, as the cash surplus may allow the government to refrain from selling more debt, the official said.

The yield on the 8.08 percent bond due in August 2022 has dropped 13 basis points over the past two months. India plans to borrow 4.17 trillion rupees next fiscal, from 4.47 trillion rupees this year, according to Mukherjee’s February budget proposal.

Faster economic activity has boosted revenue collections by 28 percent to 4.2 trillion rupees in the ten months to January from a year ago, meeting about 80 percent of the target, according to the latest government data.

India’s $1.3 trillion economy may expand by as much as 9.25 percent in the year starting April from 8.6 percent in the previous year, the finance ministry forecast last month. The central bank raised interest rates on March 17 to control inflation and said higher global oil prices could derail growth.

The Reserve Bank of India raised its inflation forecast for the second time since late January as it lifted the benchmark repurchase rate by a quarter-point to 6.75 percent, the eighth move in a year.
 
FII inflows to India in March clock $1.16 billion


MUMBAI(Commodity Online) : The FIIs (Foreign Institutional Investors) have turned bullish on India, and have invested $1.16 billion (Rs 5,200 crore) in the markets this month, reversing the previous trend of fund outflows exhibited in February.

Till March 16, the FIIs have invested Rs 5,232.70 crore in equities and bonds, reported Business Standard, quoting SEBI data.

This adds to the total sum of Rs 7,326.70 crore invested so far in 2011.

February witnessed a net Rs 3,269.80 crore ($721.33 million) outflow from the domestic market.

The Union budget 2011 is deemed to have created a positive impact prompting FIIs to come back.

Meanwhile, the socio-political unrest in the MENA (Middle East & North Africa) region and crisis in Japan has been continuing.

This too appears to have given a fillip to FIIs.


http://www.commodityonline.com/commodity-stocks/FII-inflows-to-India-in-March-clock-$116-billion-2011-03-18-37361-3-1.html
 
India to overtake Brazil as sixth largest car maker

NEW DELHI: Driven by rising purchasing power and a spate of new launches, India will produce 3 million cars by the end of the fiscal, making it the world's sixth largest car manufacturing country in the world after South Korea, said senior officials in automobile companies.

China tops the list with an annual production of 1.38 crore cars. Currently, India is the seventh largest carmaker after Brazil . The Indian car market, which produced 26.78 lakh cars in the April-February period, will notch up the sixth position due to phenomenal growth in sales this fiscal, beating the Society of Indian Automobile Manufacturers' (SIAM) earlier projection of India finding a place among the world's top six carmakers by 2015.

With several new launches set to drive up sales, India may produce 34.5 lakh cars in the new fiscal. "Actual sales are much higher than all our projections made in the past. The strong fundamental of the economy and new cars hitting the market are likely to keep the momentum going that should lead to a high growth of 14-16 % in the next fiscal despite the high base of current fiscal," said Sugato Sen, senior director, SIAM.

Demand in the last fiscal was mainly driven by the new launches. "The demand for newly-launched cars is much higher than our estimates. Just two of our new cars - Alto K10 and Eeco - launched in 2010, forms over 15% of our million cars sold in this fiscal. Helped by rising incomes and buoyant economy, new cars will continue to drive growth in the next fiscal too," said Shashank Srivastava, the chief general manager (marketing) of Maruti Suzuki.

Maruti's R3, Honda's Brio, Toyota's Liva and GM's Sail are among the 50 new cars, which are set to hit the market by FY12. Fresh capacities, which can produce an additional one million cars, will go on stream next year. Maruti Suzuki is coming up with a new 2.5-lakh cars plant in Haryana, while Renault's 2-lakh cars-a-year plant at Chennai is expected to come up in the new fiscal.

India to overtake Brazil as sixth largest car maker - The Economic Times
 
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