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Indias dollar millionaire club swells; over 1 lakh
Srinivasalu Reddy, Hindustan Times
Mumbai, June 28, 2007
Buoyed by robust returns from equities and real-estate investments, high foreign inflows and a booming economy, India is now the worlds second-fastest producer of freshly minted dollar millionaires, marginally behind Singapore.
According to the World Wealth Report released on Thursday by global investment bank Merrill Lynch and consultancy major Capgemini, there were over 100,000 dollar millionaires in India in 2006. At 100,015, the number was up 20.5 per cent over 2005 the second fastest growth in the world behind Singapores 21.2.
Dollar millionaires are people with net wealth more than $1 million, excluding the value of primary residence and consumables. The combined wealth of these Indians is $100 billion, a third of which is enough to wipe out Indias $33-billion fiscal deficit, making the economy debt-free.
The burgeoning rich list has lured a number of domestic and foreign players to set up specialised private-banking arms to tap into their wealth. It indicates growth in the Indian economy. As people create more wealth, it will percolate down, said industrialist and former CII chief Adi Godrej.
Pradeep Dokania, managing director at DSP Merrill Lynch, said: It is a reflection of robust growth of the Indian economy and that the fruits of growth are permeating to various sections of the population.
Srinivasalu Reddy, Hindustan Times
Mumbai, June 28, 2007
Buoyed by robust returns from equities and real-estate investments, high foreign inflows and a booming economy, India is now the worlds second-fastest producer of freshly minted dollar millionaires, marginally behind Singapore.
According to the World Wealth Report released on Thursday by global investment bank Merrill Lynch and consultancy major Capgemini, there were over 100,000 dollar millionaires in India in 2006. At 100,015, the number was up 20.5 per cent over 2005 the second fastest growth in the world behind Singapores 21.2.
Dollar millionaires are people with net wealth more than $1 million, excluding the value of primary residence and consumables. The combined wealth of these Indians is $100 billion, a third of which is enough to wipe out Indias $33-billion fiscal deficit, making the economy debt-free.
The burgeoning rich list has lured a number of domestic and foreign players to set up specialised private-banking arms to tap into their wealth. It indicates growth in the Indian economy. As people create more wealth, it will percolate down, said industrialist and former CII chief Adi Godrej.
Pradeep Dokania, managing director at DSP Merrill Lynch, said: It is a reflection of robust growth of the Indian economy and that the fruits of growth are permeating to various sections of the population.
Bushroda
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Sustainability of economic growth
SAUMITRA CHAUDHURI
[ FRIDAY, JUNE 29, 2007 12:46:19 AM]
In 2006-07, the Indian economy grew by 9.4% according to the preliminary data released last month. It is, however, possible that due to higher output growth in manufacturing and in some other sectors, this figure is eventually revised up to 9.5%9.6%. In three of the previous four years, the economy grew at 9% or above.
In the current year it is likely that growth will be close to 9%, if not a little higher. The non-farm sector has seen its growth accelerate from under 6% in the early years of this decade to an average of over 10% in the last three years and to 11% last year. While the services sector has been doing well for some time, industry has begun to keep close pace with it for the past three years, even at the elevation growth rates.
Now all of this has generated considerable discussion. In the land of the Hindu rate of growth, is this a fundamental transformation or is it a transitory event soon to be replaced by a slower-moving and more familiar machine? Many think so, and have not been loath to say so, and proffer much advice about how to slow down before we go off the road. It goes with the territory, I suppose. For long, observers speculated as to when China would come crashing down in a hard landing. After more than a decade of waiting it has now become passé.
Why should one believe that a fundamental transformation has come to be? Many growth spurts have been fuelled by leveraged consumption demand; if it is government demand, the fiscal deficit widens, if it is private consumption, the household debt rises; if it is both, both happen. Most often there is not enough unutilised productive capacity in the economy and prices rise; higher imports to meet domestic demand widen the trade deficit. Such a growth trajectory is not sustainable and eventually through a series of adjustments, the economy reverts to a pace of economic growth that is consistent with the availability and employment of its productive resources.
Due perhaps to its high visibility and the fact that leveraged consumption was a new phenomenon in India, a widespread perception developed that the pick-up in economic growth was a consumption-led boom, and that too one fuelled by leverage. In fact, the expansion of economic activity was as much due to fixed capital formation as it was due to consumption. The average annual growth in real final consumption was 6.4%, while that for fixed capital formation it was close to 14% a very big change from the 2% of the first two years of this decade.
The strength of the investment boom may be seen from the big increase in the investment rate, i.e., the proportion of total investment to GDP. For many years, since back in the mid-1970s, the investment rate was stuck in the low to mid-20s. After the reforms of 1991, the investment rate rose to a peak of 26.9% in 1995-96 but then fell off. Between 1996-97 and 2002-03 it ranged between 23% and 25%. In 2003-04, the investment rate rose to 28.0%, and the momentum of investment expansion gathered steam. The rate rose further to 31.5%, to 33.8% and then to 35.1% in 2004-05, 2005-06 and 2006-07 respectively. In every sense, this order of change in the trajectory of investment is enormous.
Why investment was able to rise when it had not for so long is a more complex question. Suffice it to say that this is only possible if the economic agents and transactional framework are capable of supporting a greater intensity of economic activity. By illustration, observe that private corporate investment rose by 53%, 41% and (possibly) 25%-30% in 2004-05, 2005-06 and 2006-07 respectively.
The other factor that imparts the increase in the investment rate with the character of robustness is the counterpart rise in the domestic savings rate: from the mid-20s to nearly 30% in 2003-04, to 32.4% in 2005-06 and then to 34.7% in 2006-07. The domestic savings rate in 2007-08 is expected to be well over 35% of GDP. The increase in the rate of domestic savings has come primarily from improvement in government fiscal balances and from higher retained earnings of the corporate sector.
Gross savings ( i.e., before mortgage and other loans) of the household sector has also seen an increase. The consequence of this on the external payments has been that the large increase in the investment rate has not been accompanied by a big rise in the current account deficit. In part that was because at the beginning of the boom in 2003-04 we had a small surplus in the current account, reflecting excess productive capacity at home.
This surplus has now become a small deficit although much smaller in comparison with the large capital inflows. The fact that most of the incremental investment has been financed from domestic sources is an important indicator of sustainability of the pace of investment. The extent of leverage still available to the economy, in terms of its ability to raise capital from overseas markets is enhanced by the modest use that has been made as of yet of this resource.
In the current year (2007-08) the investment rate is likely to be over 36%. It is, of course, possible to argue that four or five successive years are just so many flashes. But then all we need are a few such flashy years and we will be on a comfortable platform with close to a 40% investment rate and that could yield us many years of strong growth such as Japan had between 1955 and 1973, Korea between the mid-1960s and 1991, and China from 1978 to the present.
Certainly there is no inevitability about this outcome, as if some committee of divine beings high up had deemed it to be so. But as a potential, that if worked upon with diligence and imagination, which is certainly within reach albeit with a bit of luck. Indeed, that is the hard ground of evidence and logic upon which global investors are basing their optimism about Indias economic future.
SAUMITRA CHAUDHURI
[ FRIDAY, JUNE 29, 2007 12:46:19 AM]
In 2006-07, the Indian economy grew by 9.4% according to the preliminary data released last month. It is, however, possible that due to higher output growth in manufacturing and in some other sectors, this figure is eventually revised up to 9.5%9.6%. In three of the previous four years, the economy grew at 9% or above.
In the current year it is likely that growth will be close to 9%, if not a little higher. The non-farm sector has seen its growth accelerate from under 6% in the early years of this decade to an average of over 10% in the last three years and to 11% last year. While the services sector has been doing well for some time, industry has begun to keep close pace with it for the past three years, even at the elevation growth rates.
Now all of this has generated considerable discussion. In the land of the Hindu rate of growth, is this a fundamental transformation or is it a transitory event soon to be replaced by a slower-moving and more familiar machine? Many think so, and have not been loath to say so, and proffer much advice about how to slow down before we go off the road. It goes with the territory, I suppose. For long, observers speculated as to when China would come crashing down in a hard landing. After more than a decade of waiting it has now become passé.
Why should one believe that a fundamental transformation has come to be? Many growth spurts have been fuelled by leveraged consumption demand; if it is government demand, the fiscal deficit widens, if it is private consumption, the household debt rises; if it is both, both happen. Most often there is not enough unutilised productive capacity in the economy and prices rise; higher imports to meet domestic demand widen the trade deficit. Such a growth trajectory is not sustainable and eventually through a series of adjustments, the economy reverts to a pace of economic growth that is consistent with the availability and employment of its productive resources.
Due perhaps to its high visibility and the fact that leveraged consumption was a new phenomenon in India, a widespread perception developed that the pick-up in economic growth was a consumption-led boom, and that too one fuelled by leverage. In fact, the expansion of economic activity was as much due to fixed capital formation as it was due to consumption. The average annual growth in real final consumption was 6.4%, while that for fixed capital formation it was close to 14% a very big change from the 2% of the first two years of this decade.
The strength of the investment boom may be seen from the big increase in the investment rate, i.e., the proportion of total investment to GDP. For many years, since back in the mid-1970s, the investment rate was stuck in the low to mid-20s. After the reforms of 1991, the investment rate rose to a peak of 26.9% in 1995-96 but then fell off. Between 1996-97 and 2002-03 it ranged between 23% and 25%. In 2003-04, the investment rate rose to 28.0%, and the momentum of investment expansion gathered steam. The rate rose further to 31.5%, to 33.8% and then to 35.1% in 2004-05, 2005-06 and 2006-07 respectively. In every sense, this order of change in the trajectory of investment is enormous.
Why investment was able to rise when it had not for so long is a more complex question. Suffice it to say that this is only possible if the economic agents and transactional framework are capable of supporting a greater intensity of economic activity. By illustration, observe that private corporate investment rose by 53%, 41% and (possibly) 25%-30% in 2004-05, 2005-06 and 2006-07 respectively.
The other factor that imparts the increase in the investment rate with the character of robustness is the counterpart rise in the domestic savings rate: from the mid-20s to nearly 30% in 2003-04, to 32.4% in 2005-06 and then to 34.7% in 2006-07. The domestic savings rate in 2007-08 is expected to be well over 35% of GDP. The increase in the rate of domestic savings has come primarily from improvement in government fiscal balances and from higher retained earnings of the corporate sector.
Gross savings ( i.e., before mortgage and other loans) of the household sector has also seen an increase. The consequence of this on the external payments has been that the large increase in the investment rate has not been accompanied by a big rise in the current account deficit. In part that was because at the beginning of the boom in 2003-04 we had a small surplus in the current account, reflecting excess productive capacity at home.
This surplus has now become a small deficit although much smaller in comparison with the large capital inflows. The fact that most of the incremental investment has been financed from domestic sources is an important indicator of sustainability of the pace of investment. The extent of leverage still available to the economy, in terms of its ability to raise capital from overseas markets is enhanced by the modest use that has been made as of yet of this resource.
In the current year (2007-08) the investment rate is likely to be over 36%. It is, of course, possible to argue that four or five successive years are just so many flashes. But then all we need are a few such flashy years and we will be on a comfortable platform with close to a 40% investment rate and that could yield us many years of strong growth such as Japan had between 1955 and 1973, Korea between the mid-1960s and 1991, and China from 1978 to the present.
Certainly there is no inevitability about this outcome, as if some committee of divine beings high up had deemed it to be so. But as a potential, that if worked upon with diligence and imagination, which is certainly within reach albeit with a bit of luck. Indeed, that is the hard ground of evidence and logic upon which global investors are basing their optimism about Indias economic future.
Bushroda
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State Bank of India May Need 1 Trillion Rupees
BLOOMBERG
By Sumit Sharma and Anoop Agrawal
June 28 (Bloomberg) -- State Bank of India, the nation's biggest by assets, said it may need 1 trillion rupees ($24.5 billion) in five years to sustain loan growth and fend off competition.
Mumbai-based State Bank wants the money to meet stricter capital requirements, fund the growth of its banking units and expand its assets 25 percent yearly, Chairman Om Prakash Bhatt told reporters in Mumbai. The bank is concerned about its loss of market share, he said.
The lender is waiting for government controls to ease, as a 20 percent cap on foreign ownership and a requirement that India hold a majority stake have limited its options to raise capital. ICICI Bank Ltd., India's biggest by market value, sold $5 billion of stock last week because overseas investors are allowed to own up to three-quarters of the company.
``State-run banks will always have this problem of fund raising because of government control,'' said Sandip Sabharwal, chief investment officer at Mumbai-based J.M. Financial Mutual Fund, who oversees the equivalent of $171 million in equities. ``Every time they decide to raise funds they will need approval.''
New laws being passed in the next two months will allow State Bank to raise as much as 80 billion rupees of capital once the government's stake falls to 55 percent from 59.73 percent, Bhatt said. The rules will permit other fund-raising options as well, such as issuing preferred shares.
Credit Risk
Since April the bank has sold 50 billion rupees of debt, Bhatt said. The perceived risk for holding debt of State Bank of India rose to a three-month high after Bhatt told shareholders on June 25 that its capital requirements would be increased to 500 billion rupees in three years.
Credit-default swaps based on $10 million of the company's debt rose to $52,000 from $51,000 yesterday, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. That's the highest since March 23. An increase in the price indicates deterioration in investors' perceptions of the bank's ability to repay what it owes.
Indian banks need more capital to fund the building of roads, ports and power plants in an $854 billion economy that grew an average 8.6 percent over the past four years. The International Monetary Fund expects India to overtake South Korea this year as Asia's third-biggest economy after Japan and China.
Share Sale
Government-owned State Bank, with more than 100 million customers and 9,400 branches across India, may sell as much as $1.5 billion of stock this year, Bhatt said in May. The bank sold shares in 1994 in India and in 1996 in London, where it raised $350 million.
``Banks will need more money as the Indian economy is growing at a fantastic pace,'' Bhatt said.
State Bank's assets are expected to grow by 25 percent annually over the next three years, Bhatt said today, after growing 70 percent to $156 billion in the five years through March 31. ICICI forecasts 30 percent growth this year and had a three-fold increase in assets to $62 billion over the five years.
The 200-year-old bank also plans to combine its asset management, insurance and non-banking operations in a holding company to unlock value, Bhatt said on June 25. State Bank of India proposes to sell about a 10 percent stake in its holding company to `three to four investors' within four months or so, he said today.
Life Insurance Unit
State Bank values its life insurance unit at $7 billion, Bhatt said. SBI Life Insurance is the fastest-growing life insurer in India, he said, and may go public in the year ending March 2009. French lender BNP Paribas's Cardiff SA unit holds a 26 percent stake in State Bank's life insurance venture.
The bank also aims this year to increase the share of low- cost deposits by 1 percentage point to 44.5 percent, attract more rich customers and expand in rural areas.
The bank needs to boost its market share, Bhatt said. Training programs are planned for all 200,000 employees to improve service, he said, after its product innovation and service standards declined.
State Bank of India's shares, which have risen 18 percent this year, traded at 1,470.35 rupees, up 1.6 percent, at 3:30 p.m. on the Bombay Stock Exchange.
BLOOMBERG
By Sumit Sharma and Anoop Agrawal
June 28 (Bloomberg) -- State Bank of India, the nation's biggest by assets, said it may need 1 trillion rupees ($24.5 billion) in five years to sustain loan growth and fend off competition.
Mumbai-based State Bank wants the money to meet stricter capital requirements, fund the growth of its banking units and expand its assets 25 percent yearly, Chairman Om Prakash Bhatt told reporters in Mumbai. The bank is concerned about its loss of market share, he said.
The lender is waiting for government controls to ease, as a 20 percent cap on foreign ownership and a requirement that India hold a majority stake have limited its options to raise capital. ICICI Bank Ltd., India's biggest by market value, sold $5 billion of stock last week because overseas investors are allowed to own up to three-quarters of the company.
``State-run banks will always have this problem of fund raising because of government control,'' said Sandip Sabharwal, chief investment officer at Mumbai-based J.M. Financial Mutual Fund, who oversees the equivalent of $171 million in equities. ``Every time they decide to raise funds they will need approval.''
New laws being passed in the next two months will allow State Bank to raise as much as 80 billion rupees of capital once the government's stake falls to 55 percent from 59.73 percent, Bhatt said. The rules will permit other fund-raising options as well, such as issuing preferred shares.
Credit Risk
Since April the bank has sold 50 billion rupees of debt, Bhatt said. The perceived risk for holding debt of State Bank of India rose to a three-month high after Bhatt told shareholders on June 25 that its capital requirements would be increased to 500 billion rupees in three years.
Credit-default swaps based on $10 million of the company's debt rose to $52,000 from $51,000 yesterday, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. That's the highest since March 23. An increase in the price indicates deterioration in investors' perceptions of the bank's ability to repay what it owes.
Indian banks need more capital to fund the building of roads, ports and power plants in an $854 billion economy that grew an average 8.6 percent over the past four years. The International Monetary Fund expects India to overtake South Korea this year as Asia's third-biggest economy after Japan and China.
Share Sale
Government-owned State Bank, with more than 100 million customers and 9,400 branches across India, may sell as much as $1.5 billion of stock this year, Bhatt said in May. The bank sold shares in 1994 in India and in 1996 in London, where it raised $350 million.
``Banks will need more money as the Indian economy is growing at a fantastic pace,'' Bhatt said.
State Bank's assets are expected to grow by 25 percent annually over the next three years, Bhatt said today, after growing 70 percent to $156 billion in the five years through March 31. ICICI forecasts 30 percent growth this year and had a three-fold increase in assets to $62 billion over the five years.
The 200-year-old bank also plans to combine its asset management, insurance and non-banking operations in a holding company to unlock value, Bhatt said on June 25. State Bank of India proposes to sell about a 10 percent stake in its holding company to `three to four investors' within four months or so, he said today.
Life Insurance Unit
State Bank values its life insurance unit at $7 billion, Bhatt said. SBI Life Insurance is the fastest-growing life insurer in India, he said, and may go public in the year ending March 2009. French lender BNP Paribas's Cardiff SA unit holds a 26 percent stake in State Bank's life insurance venture.
The bank also aims this year to increase the share of low- cost deposits by 1 percentage point to 44.5 percent, attract more rich customers and expand in rural areas.
The bank needs to boost its market share, Bhatt said. Training programs are planned for all 200,000 employees to improve service, he said, after its product innovation and service standards declined.
State Bank of India's shares, which have risen 18 percent this year, traded at 1,470.35 rupees, up 1.6 percent, at 3:30 p.m. on the Bombay Stock Exchange.
Indian inflation falls to 14-month low
NEW DELHI: Indias inflation has fallen to a 14-month low helped by lower food prices, data on Friday showed, easing pressure for further interest rate hikes.
The wholesale price index, Indias closely watched cost-of-living monitor, showed inflation slowed to a lower-than-expected 4.03 per cent for the week ended June 16, from 4.28 per cent a week earlier and 5.5 per cent a year ago.
The latest figure was comfortably within the central banks medium-term inflation target of 4.0 to 4.5 per cent.
Its a positive surprise, said D K Joshi, principal economist at leading Indian credit rating agency Crisil. The central bank can now afford to adopt a wait-and-watch policy and refrain from raising rates for the time-being.
It is possible that the impact of the central banks interest rate rises have still not been fully felt, he added.
The central bank has hiked benchmark rates nine times since late 2004, driving borrowing costs to five-year highs. Its next monetary policy review is on July 31.
In early February, inflation hit a more than two-year high of 6.73, sparking warnings that the economy, which expanded by a scorching 9.4 per cent in the 2006-07 financial year, could be overheating.
The latest data came as welcome news to the Congress-led government as inflation has emerged as a major political issue because of the burden it imposes on Indias millions of poor households. Economists had been expecting inflation to fall to around 4.13 per cent this week. Inflation has been declining steadily over the past two months.
The newest drop was driven by a fall in food prices, such as pulses and vegetables, and some manufactured goods as well as by a higher base effect from a year ago.
The government has cut wheat and lentil import taxes and duties on steel and fuel in its bid to cut prices.
Earlier in the week, Finance Minister P Chidambaram said inflation-fighting measures and a sharp appreciation of the Indian rupee which has been riding at nine-year highs against the dollar had helped subdue prices. More rate rises might not be needed if the trend continued, he said.
This has eased fears about an interest rate rise, said Deepak Lalwani, Director of London-based brokerage Astaire & Partners Ltd. The India story remains positive, Lalwani said.
The inflation data helped drive up Indias benchmark Sensex share index by 1.03 per cent or 145.94 points to 14,650.51, just 73.37 points shy of its intraday record of 14,723.88 hit on February 9.
Economists warned that the central bank would not be able to lower its guard against inflation as the economy was operating at close to capacity and there was still a risk of overheating.
If you think that the economy was operating at 60 per cent capacity four years ago and is now at around 90 per cent, price pressures must be building, said Lalwani.
http://www.thenews.com.pk/daily_detail.asp?id=62482
Indian shares may hit record highs
MUMBAI: Indian share prices could hit record levels next week on global market gains as rate concerns ease, dealers said on Friday.
They said the markets showed buoyancy after Indias inflation rate continued to fall, easing pressure for further interest rate hikes.
They said buying momentum picked up towards the close of the week with the benchmark 30-share Sensex moving towards record levels.
Indian shares rose 183.15 or 1.26 per cent to close the week at 14,650.51, just 73.37 points short of their intraday record of 14,723.88 hit on February 9.
Sentiment improved as Indias inflation fell to a 14-month low of 4.03 per cent for the week ending June 16 from 4.28 the previous week, dealers said.
The figure was comfortably within the central banks medium-term target of 4.0-4.5 per cent.
The markets could move to record highs early next week, said a dealer at brokerage Jamnadas Morarjee. The absence of fresh buying triggers may, however, limit gains, he said.
Dealers said the pace of buying would pick up only when first-quarter earnings data from Indian companies are announced in July.
Overseas funds have been net buyers of Indian equities this year to the tune of 4.45bn dollars, well above the 2.66bn dollars worth of shares that they purchased during the same period a year ago.
http://www.thenews.com.pk/daily_detail.asp?id=62484
Bushroda
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Private beats public sector in quarterly investments
Seven-Year Wait: Last time this happened was in April-June 1999
New Delhi, June 29: A trend is beginning and early signals indicate that it may be here to stay. For two consecutive quarters October-December 2006 and January-March 2007 private investment in industry has beaten government investment. This has happened after a gap of seven years. The last time private investment was higher than government investment was in the quarter ended June 1999.
In an indication of investment confidence, outstanding private investment in industry surpassed outstanding government investment by 28 per cent according to the latest data released by the Centre for Monitoring the Indian Economy (CMIE). Outstanding investments are those investments that have been announced, proposed or are under implementation, implying that they will lead to the availability of productive capital for the economy in the near future.
Since September 1999, outstanding private investments have been lower than government investment. The difference between private and government investments has grown from 14 per cent in the December 2006 quarter to 28 per cent in the March 2007 quarter. In the quarter ending March, private ownership of outstanding investments exceeded government ownership by Rs 3,74,045 crore.
This is partly due to a boom in construction, electricity, mining and services investment by the private sector, which increased by 335 per cent, 119 per cent, 112 per cent and 78 per cent respectively, over the financial year 2006-07. Sluggish government investments added their bit to it.
Government investment growth in mining, irrigation and services showed signs of slowing down as growth in mining investment fell to 30 per cent in 2006-07 from 81 per cent in 2005-06; in services the growth fell to Rs 44,200 crore in 2006-07, an increase of only 9 per cent over the previous period compared to Rs 1,26,119 crore in 2005-06, which was an increase of 33 per cent.
In services, government investment in industries that are traditionally considered the governments domain has fallen. Outstanding investments in railway transport fell by 8 per cent or Rs 12,670 crore over 2006-07 compared to a 54 per cent growth in the previous year. Air transport saw a fall of 14 per cent or Rs 4,281 crore and overall government investment growth in the transport industry slowed down to 4 per cent in 2006-07 compared to 30 per cent in the previous year. Surprisingly, while government investment in the Railways declined, private investment in it rose by 483 per cent. But it was air transport that recorded the highest growth in outstanding investment for the private sector, growing at 535 per cent or Rs 17,300 crore in 2006-07. Overall, private investment in the transport industry grew by 202 per cent or Rs 104,976 crore.
Private investment in infrastructure related industries like roads, railways, air transport, shipping and automobiles grew at triple digit rates, while government investment in these core industries stagnated. Although outstanding government investment surpasses outstanding private investment in mining, electricity, services and irrigation, current trends show that within the current financial year private investment will surpass government investment in services and mining, while the same can be expected in electricity generation and irrigation by the end of the next financial year.
Seven-Year Wait: Last time this happened was in April-June 1999
New Delhi, June 29: A trend is beginning and early signals indicate that it may be here to stay. For two consecutive quarters October-December 2006 and January-March 2007 private investment in industry has beaten government investment. This has happened after a gap of seven years. The last time private investment was higher than government investment was in the quarter ended June 1999.
In an indication of investment confidence, outstanding private investment in industry surpassed outstanding government investment by 28 per cent according to the latest data released by the Centre for Monitoring the Indian Economy (CMIE). Outstanding investments are those investments that have been announced, proposed or are under implementation, implying that they will lead to the availability of productive capital for the economy in the near future.
Since September 1999, outstanding private investments have been lower than government investment. The difference between private and government investments has grown from 14 per cent in the December 2006 quarter to 28 per cent in the March 2007 quarter. In the quarter ending March, private ownership of outstanding investments exceeded government ownership by Rs 3,74,045 crore.
This is partly due to a boom in construction, electricity, mining and services investment by the private sector, which increased by 335 per cent, 119 per cent, 112 per cent and 78 per cent respectively, over the financial year 2006-07. Sluggish government investments added their bit to it.
Government investment growth in mining, irrigation and services showed signs of slowing down as growth in mining investment fell to 30 per cent in 2006-07 from 81 per cent in 2005-06; in services the growth fell to Rs 44,200 crore in 2006-07, an increase of only 9 per cent over the previous period compared to Rs 1,26,119 crore in 2005-06, which was an increase of 33 per cent.
In services, government investment in industries that are traditionally considered the governments domain has fallen. Outstanding investments in railway transport fell by 8 per cent or Rs 12,670 crore over 2006-07 compared to a 54 per cent growth in the previous year. Air transport saw a fall of 14 per cent or Rs 4,281 crore and overall government investment growth in the transport industry slowed down to 4 per cent in 2006-07 compared to 30 per cent in the previous year. Surprisingly, while government investment in the Railways declined, private investment in it rose by 483 per cent. But it was air transport that recorded the highest growth in outstanding investment for the private sector, growing at 535 per cent or Rs 17,300 crore in 2006-07. Overall, private investment in the transport industry grew by 202 per cent or Rs 104,976 crore.
Private investment in infrastructure related industries like roads, railways, air transport, shipping and automobiles grew at triple digit rates, while government investment in these core industries stagnated. Although outstanding government investment surpasses outstanding private investment in mining, electricity, services and irrigation, current trends show that within the current financial year private investment will surpass government investment in services and mining, while the same can be expected in electricity generation and irrigation by the end of the next financial year.
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Hey dude,
they went ok, not as good as last sem's
.Im hoping my teachers will give me good internal marks to boost the average...they quite like me you know
Contrarian
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US takes the shine off Indian jewellery
WASHINGTON: Hours after Indias commerce minister Kamal Nath left Washington DC after resisting US pressure to toe its line on international trade, the Bush administration has terminated some preferential benefits to India and Brazil, signalling a tough new approach towards two countries regarded as rebels in a western effort to hew a new trade regime.
The US Trade Representative (USTR) on Thursday announced that it is revoking duty-free status for gold jewellery and brass lamps from India, following a review of the Generalized System of Preferences program mandated by Congress.
India shipped nearly $ 2 billion in gold jewellery and $20 million in brass lamps to the US in 2006 under the GSP programme. Although the USTR announcement also involved revoking GSP privileges to several other countries, India and Brazil (which got knocked on brake parts worth $ 242 million) are among the hardest hit.
The GSP program was created in 1974 to provide duty-free treatment to nearly 5,000 products exported to the US from 131 beneficiary developing countries.
GSP privileges are typically withdrawn when Washington feels products from beneficiary countries have "exceeded statutory competitiveness limitations."
The USTR move followed several rounds of failed talks between Kamal Nath and US interlocutors aimed at breaking a deadlock that has stalled progress on the Doha Round. Administration officials, including Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice and Naths counterpart Susan Schwab have bitterly criticized India for being the spoiler.
But Kamal Nath, a suave Doon Schooler entrusted with safeguarding the livelihood of 800 million Indians who subsist on agriculture, has stood his ground. In a press conference at the Indian Embassy before he left for India, Nath said "Indian agriculture is subsistence, it's not commerce. You can negotiate commerce, but you cannot negotiate subsistence."
At the heart of dispute is the US-EU insistence that India and other poor nations whittle down high tariffs. Nath and his developing world counterparts want the west to first reduce subsidies to their farm sector that makes western produce cheap, and whose import (sans tariff) will decimate the agricultural sector in poor countries. A country like India, Nath said, is "batting for protection of livelihood."
Naths arguments have had little impact in the US, where his counterpart, USTR Susan Schwab, who the Indian commerce minister has met seven times in the last fortnight, launched a withering attack on India, accusing it of "misusing its newfound clout."
"Perhaps India and other major trading countries are still assessing their new responsibilities. It's my earnest hope that they come to terms with the reality that the benefits of accepting this responsibility will dwarf the political and economic challenges of doing so," Schwab said in Naths presence at a meeting of the US-India Business Council earlier this week.
Secretary Rice followed her up by remarking that "it would be a tragedy and a true shame if we did not complete this historic (Doha) agreement" implicitly blaming India for the deadlock.
With such rebuke ringing in his ears, Nath still presented a calm face, promising that India and the US would eventually find convergence in their positions.
He also cited figures to show that bilateral trade between the two countries was healthy and poised for greater growth.
But for now though, the only concession New Delhi gave Washington was a basket of mangoes that Prime Minister Singhs media advisor Sanjaya Baru presented to Secretary Rice. And that too a few hours before the US took the shine off Indias gold exports.
http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/US_takes_the_shine_off_Indian_jewellery/articleshow/2162971.cms
WASHINGTON: Hours after Indias commerce minister Kamal Nath left Washington DC after resisting US pressure to toe its line on international trade, the Bush administration has terminated some preferential benefits to India and Brazil, signalling a tough new approach towards two countries regarded as rebels in a western effort to hew a new trade regime.
The US Trade Representative (USTR) on Thursday announced that it is revoking duty-free status for gold jewellery and brass lamps from India, following a review of the Generalized System of Preferences program mandated by Congress.
India shipped nearly $ 2 billion in gold jewellery and $20 million in brass lamps to the US in 2006 under the GSP programme. Although the USTR announcement also involved revoking GSP privileges to several other countries, India and Brazil (which got knocked on brake parts worth $ 242 million) are among the hardest hit.
The GSP program was created in 1974 to provide duty-free treatment to nearly 5,000 products exported to the US from 131 beneficiary developing countries.
GSP privileges are typically withdrawn when Washington feels products from beneficiary countries have "exceeded statutory competitiveness limitations."
The USTR move followed several rounds of failed talks between Kamal Nath and US interlocutors aimed at breaking a deadlock that has stalled progress on the Doha Round. Administration officials, including Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice and Naths counterpart Susan Schwab have bitterly criticized India for being the spoiler.
But Kamal Nath, a suave Doon Schooler entrusted with safeguarding the livelihood of 800 million Indians who subsist on agriculture, has stood his ground. In a press conference at the Indian Embassy before he left for India, Nath said "Indian agriculture is subsistence, it's not commerce. You can negotiate commerce, but you cannot negotiate subsistence."
At the heart of dispute is the US-EU insistence that India and other poor nations whittle down high tariffs. Nath and his developing world counterparts want the west to first reduce subsidies to their farm sector that makes western produce cheap, and whose import (sans tariff) will decimate the agricultural sector in poor countries. A country like India, Nath said, is "batting for protection of livelihood."
Naths arguments have had little impact in the US, where his counterpart, USTR Susan Schwab, who the Indian commerce minister has met seven times in the last fortnight, launched a withering attack on India, accusing it of "misusing its newfound clout."
"Perhaps India and other major trading countries are still assessing their new responsibilities. It's my earnest hope that they come to terms with the reality that the benefits of accepting this responsibility will dwarf the political and economic challenges of doing so," Schwab said in Naths presence at a meeting of the US-India Business Council earlier this week.
Secretary Rice followed her up by remarking that "it would be a tragedy and a true shame if we did not complete this historic (Doha) agreement" implicitly blaming India for the deadlock.
With such rebuke ringing in his ears, Nath still presented a calm face, promising that India and the US would eventually find convergence in their positions.
He also cited figures to show that bilateral trade between the two countries was healthy and poised for greater growth.
But for now though, the only concession New Delhi gave Washington was a basket of mangoes that Prime Minister Singhs media advisor Sanjaya Baru presented to Secretary Rice. And that too a few hours before the US took the shine off Indias gold exports.
http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/US_takes_the_shine_off_Indian_jewellery/articleshow/2162971.cms
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India catches up with China in PC growth
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BANGALORE: India is slowly emerging from behind the Chinese shadow in the global PC market.
In 2006, the total PC shipments to India were 7.5 million, showing an overall growth of 18%, while China shipped 28.5 million units (second only to US), a growth of 17%. In 2007, the Chinese are likely to buy 33.6 million desktops, notebooks, servers and other computers, according to projections from market research group Gartner. For India, number projected for this year is 8.8 million.
But the market in China is slowing down just as India’s is accelerating. As per Gartner predictions, both countries will enjoy growth between 16% and 18% this year, but next year India will move ahead. While China’s PC market will still enjoy respectable growth of 14%, India’s computer sales will grow at a rate higher than 20%, Gartner forecasts.
One factor constraining growth in India is that folks in semi-urban and rural areas are still not confident about using email and internet. "Language is a key factor in that. In China, everyone speaks Mandarin and language-based software applications have taken off in a big way. India is yet to catch on to the regional bandwagon. The problem here is, Indians speak so many languages," says Diptarup Chakraborti, principal analyst at Gartner, India.
But there is a twist to the Indian growth story. The growth has been spurred by increased sales of notebooks and not desktops. Says Chakraborti, "The mobile PC (notebook) segment is growing at a scorching rate and posted a growth rate of 89% in 2006 over 2005.
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BANGALORE: India is slowly emerging from behind the Chinese shadow in the global PC market.
In 2006, the total PC shipments to India were 7.5 million, showing an overall growth of 18%, while China shipped 28.5 million units (second only to US), a growth of 17%. In 2007, the Chinese are likely to buy 33.6 million desktops, notebooks, servers and other computers, according to projections from market research group Gartner. For India, number projected for this year is 8.8 million.
But the market in China is slowing down just as India’s is accelerating. As per Gartner predictions, both countries will enjoy growth between 16% and 18% this year, but next year India will move ahead. While China’s PC market will still enjoy respectable growth of 14%, India’s computer sales will grow at a rate higher than 20%, Gartner forecasts.
One factor constraining growth in India is that folks in semi-urban and rural areas are still not confident about using email and internet. "Language is a key factor in that. In China, everyone speaks Mandarin and language-based software applications have taken off in a big way. India is yet to catch on to the regional bandwagon. The problem here is, Indians speak so many languages," says Diptarup Chakraborti, principal analyst at Gartner, India.
But there is a twist to the Indian growth story. The growth has been spurred by increased sales of notebooks and not desktops. Says Chakraborti, "The mobile PC (notebook) segment is growing at a scorching rate and posted a growth rate of 89% in 2006 over 2005.
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Forex reserves rise to $192 billion
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NEW DELHI: On the back of positive change of $10.9 billion in valuation due to the depreciation of dollar and external commercial borrowings at $16.1 billion, the foreign exchange reserves of the country swelled by $47.5 billion to $192 billion in 2006-07. Against this, in 2005-06, the net accretion to foreign exchange reserves was only $ 10.1 billion.
As per the data released by RBI on Friday, the accretion to the foreign exchange reserves was of the order of $36.6 billion on a balance of payment basis during 2006-07. Valuation gain reflecting the appreciation of major currencies against the dollar, accounted for an increase of $10.9 billion in total reserves as against a valuation loss of $5 billion.
The current account deficit during 2006-07 amounted to $9.6 billion or 1.1% of GDP as against $9.2 billion in 2005-06. After remaining in the negative zone for the three quarters, current account turned positive by $2.56 billion in the fourth quarter. In the first three quarters of 2006-07, the current account deficit was around $12 billion.
Because of the surge in the net invisible receipts to the tune of $55.30 billion as against $42.65 billion in the last year, current account deficit remained at the last year level of $9.61 billion.
A huge surge occurred under the capital account too. The inflow under the capital account in 2006-07 went up by over 90% to $46.22 billion as against $24.24 billion in the last year. This made the reserves to further swell by $36.61 billion as against $15.05 billion in the last year.
Gross invisible receipts, comprising services including software, travel, remittances and investment income rose by 29.1% to $119.16 billion in 2006-07 from $92.29 billion in the last year.
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NEW DELHI: On the back of positive change of $10.9 billion in valuation due to the depreciation of dollar and external commercial borrowings at $16.1 billion, the foreign exchange reserves of the country swelled by $47.5 billion to $192 billion in 2006-07. Against this, in 2005-06, the net accretion to foreign exchange reserves was only $ 10.1 billion.
As per the data released by RBI on Friday, the accretion to the foreign exchange reserves was of the order of $36.6 billion on a balance of payment basis during 2006-07. Valuation gain reflecting the appreciation of major currencies against the dollar, accounted for an increase of $10.9 billion in total reserves as against a valuation loss of $5 billion.
The current account deficit during 2006-07 amounted to $9.6 billion or 1.1% of GDP as against $9.2 billion in 2005-06. After remaining in the negative zone for the three quarters, current account turned positive by $2.56 billion in the fourth quarter. In the first three quarters of 2006-07, the current account deficit was around $12 billion.
Because of the surge in the net invisible receipts to the tune of $55.30 billion as against $42.65 billion in the last year, current account deficit remained at the last year level of $9.61 billion.
A huge surge occurred under the capital account too. The inflow under the capital account in 2006-07 went up by over 90% to $46.22 billion as against $24.24 billion in the last year. This made the reserves to further swell by $36.61 billion as against $15.05 billion in the last year.
Gross invisible receipts, comprising services including software, travel, remittances and investment income rose by 29.1% to $119.16 billion in 2006-07 from $92.29 billion in the last year.
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India warns nations not to confuse subsidies with tariffs
WASHINGTON: India has warned the developed world not to confuse subsidies with tariffs and said if a country like the US wanted "headroom" for distortions in subsidies the developing world will be seeking the same for tariffs.
"Subsidies are distortions, tariffs are not," the Union Minister for Commerce Kamal Nath told reporters in the US. "So, we need to correct subsidies and while subsidies are being corrected I don't see there needs to be an exchange rate in correcting distortions and looking for tariffs," he said at the Embassy of India.
"Where India is concerned is that we have low tariffs, so our position may be more flexible, but we must go by our groups. The group formations are very important and that's what we will be doing," the minister said.
He, however, said India will continue to push for a successful conclusion to the Doha Round of trade talks.
"The US must also be demonstrating because this town says effective cuts in trade distortions. What does that mean? Effective cuts does not mean the right to be able to increase your subsidies," he said.
"The G-20 offer (on agricultural subsidies) is 12.1. That's where it stands at the moment. There was a big gap between 12.1 and 17. Now since the US wants some headroom, there are countries which say that if you want headroom in your distortion, we want headroom in our tariffs," Nath said.
"So you can't have headroom for distortions without having headroom for tariffs and if market access of subsidised products is very different from market access to agricultural products," the minister said.
WASHINGTON: India has warned the developed world not to confuse subsidies with tariffs and said if a country like the US wanted "headroom" for distortions in subsidies the developing world will be seeking the same for tariffs.
"Subsidies are distortions, tariffs are not," the Union Minister for Commerce Kamal Nath told reporters in the US. "So, we need to correct subsidies and while subsidies are being corrected I don't see there needs to be an exchange rate in correcting distortions and looking for tariffs," he said at the Embassy of India.
"Where India is concerned is that we have low tariffs, so our position may be more flexible, but we must go by our groups. The group formations are very important and that's what we will be doing," the minister said.
He, however, said India will continue to push for a successful conclusion to the Doha Round of trade talks.
"The US must also be demonstrating because this town says effective cuts in trade distortions. What does that mean? Effective cuts does not mean the right to be able to increase your subsidies," he said.
"The G-20 offer (on agricultural subsidies) is 12.1. That's where it stands at the moment. There was a big gap between 12.1 and 17. Now since the US wants some headroom, there are countries which say that if you want headroom in your distortion, we want headroom in our tariffs," Nath said.
"So you can't have headroom for distortions without having headroom for tariffs and if market access of subsidised products is very different from market access to agricultural products," the minister said.
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Merged AI-IA needs 60 more aircraft
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NEW DELHI: Facing an aging snag-prone fleet that has to be phased out to compete in the fast expanding aviation industry, the merged Air India-Indian Airlines is going to require at least 60 more aircraft than the earlier order placed for 111 planes worth over $ 10 billion.
During a review meeting on merger held by aviation minister Praful Patel on Friday, the problem of aircraft shortage was discussed threadbare. A working group set up on this issue has found that the merged airline will need 30 wide-bodied aircraft and at least as many, if not more, narrow body planes. Additional fleet will require $6-7 billion extra spending.
"From now till mid-2009, we will return or phase out many aircraft and there is a shortage of aircraft even currently, The working group will submit its report in two weeks. We are working out a strategy to either lease brand new planes or buy them. But for the leasing option, only brand new planes would be considered,’’ AI CMD V Thulasidas told TOI.
The wide-bodied options are Boeing 747, 777 and 787 apart from the Airbus A310 and 330s. The narrow body options include Boeing 737 and the A-320 family. The airlines are also facing shortage of planes. The ministry now admits the main reason for dwindling fortunes of national carriers is that they did not get modern planes for years while the competition kept adding capacity as the market grew.
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NEW DELHI: Facing an aging snag-prone fleet that has to be phased out to compete in the fast expanding aviation industry, the merged Air India-Indian Airlines is going to require at least 60 more aircraft than the earlier order placed for 111 planes worth over $ 10 billion.
During a review meeting on merger held by aviation minister Praful Patel on Friday, the problem of aircraft shortage was discussed threadbare. A working group set up on this issue has found that the merged airline will need 30 wide-bodied aircraft and at least as many, if not more, narrow body planes. Additional fleet will require $6-7 billion extra spending.
"From now till mid-2009, we will return or phase out many aircraft and there is a shortage of aircraft even currently, The working group will submit its report in two weeks. We are working out a strategy to either lease brand new planes or buy them. But for the leasing option, only brand new planes would be considered,’’ AI CMD V Thulasidas told TOI.
The wide-bodied options are Boeing 747, 777 and 787 apart from the Airbus A310 and 330s. The narrow body options include Boeing 737 and the A-320 family. The airlines are also facing shortage of planes. The ministry now admits the main reason for dwindling fortunes of national carriers is that they did not get modern planes for years while the competition kept adding capacity as the market grew.
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Air Deccan to build low-cost airports
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BANGALORE: After low-cost flying it’s now low-cost airports. Air Deccan has announced plans to partner with builders to bid for the construction of four low-cost airports in Karnataka. The Karnataka government had recently called for expressions of interest for setting up airports in Hassan, Shimoga, Gulbarga and Bidar.
But the airline did not disclose who they would be tying up with. The partnership with the builder would be based on an assurance from Air Deccan that the latter would ensure regular passenger traffic to these smaller towns.
Air Deccan executive chairman G R Gopinath said his vision is to build no-frills airports at a cost of Rs 20 crore each, compared to the over Rs 300 crore that regular airports cost.
This would mean the airports will not have aerodomes, aircraft push-back vehicles and buses to ferry people from the aircraft to terminal buildings.
Speaking on the sidelines of a press meet to announce a tie up with India Post to sell Air Deccan tickets through post offices, Gopinath said, “These airports will be equipped with all the necessary infrastructure. But the terminal buildings will be smaller and less opulent than airports in a metro. Also the runway will be built to accommodate turbo-propelled aircraft like ATRs.”
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BANGALORE: After low-cost flying it’s now low-cost airports. Air Deccan has announced plans to partner with builders to bid for the construction of four low-cost airports in Karnataka. The Karnataka government had recently called for expressions of interest for setting up airports in Hassan, Shimoga, Gulbarga and Bidar.
But the airline did not disclose who they would be tying up with. The partnership with the builder would be based on an assurance from Air Deccan that the latter would ensure regular passenger traffic to these smaller towns.
Air Deccan executive chairman G R Gopinath said his vision is to build no-frills airports at a cost of Rs 20 crore each, compared to the over Rs 300 crore that regular airports cost.
This would mean the airports will not have aerodomes, aircraft push-back vehicles and buses to ferry people from the aircraft to terminal buildings.
Speaking on the sidelines of a press meet to announce a tie up with India Post to sell Air Deccan tickets through post offices, Gopinath said, “These airports will be equipped with all the necessary infrastructure. But the terminal buildings will be smaller and less opulent than airports in a metro. Also the runway will be built to accommodate turbo-propelled aircraft like ATRs.”
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