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Indian Industrial Output Rises 13.6 Pct
By RAJESH MAHAPATRA 06.12.07, 7:31 AM ET
FORBES, NY
India's industrial output rose a stronger-than-expected 13.6 percent in April from a year ago, the government said Tuesday, thanks to robust manufacturing.
But the numbers heightened concerns that the Indian economy might be overheating, growing faster than the pace that can be sustained. It also fueled fears that the central bank may further increase lending rates and take steps to restrain money supply growth to cool the economy.
While the April growth was slower than the 14.5 percent rise in March, it was stronger than the 11 percent expansion forecast by economists polled by Dow Jones Newswires.
The April data showed manufacturing expanded 15.1 percent in April, while electricity generation grew 8.7 percent from a year ago. Mining output rose 3.4 percent.
"This is yet another impressively strong Indian release, but the question is will it prove too strong for comfort," said Robert Prior-Wandesforde, an HSBC (nyse: HBC - news - people ) economist based in Singapore.
Indian Finance Minister P. Chidambaram said the government was concerned over excessive growth in some sectors "where there are signs of what you will call overheating."
Chidambaram didn't name the sectors, but he has previously warned banks against lending too much to real estate, which experts believe is drawing a lot of speculative money that may leave behind an asset bubble.
India's central bank has repeatedly increased interest rates since December in a bid to discourage lending and slow growth. The broader economy has grown 9 percent annually in the past two years, but the brisk expansion has also come with rising inflation.
The increases in interest rates have affected car and motorcycle sales and production of such goods as refrigerators and television sets for which demand is often linked to easy finance. But there has been little impact on machine goods, construction material and the real estate.
Moreover, exports have been buoyant as Indian producers increasingly penetrate new markets abroad.
"One can still make the case that real monetary conditions remain loose in the country and that is perhaps why the signs of slowdown in the economy remain few and far between," said Prior-Wandesforde at HSBC.
Prices of government bonds fell as the data on industrial output led traders to speculate on another round of monetary tightening by the central bank.
India's April industrial output rises
BUSINESSWEEK, NEW DELHI
India's industrial output in April rose a better-than-expected 13.6 percent from a year ago, the government said Tuesday, thanks to robust manufacturing.
But the numbers heightened concerns that the Indian economy might be overheating. It also fueled fears that the central bank may further increase lending rates and tighten money supply to cool the economy.
Data released Tuesday showed manufacturing expanded 15.1 percent in April, while electricity generation grew 8.7 percent from a year ago. Mining output rose 3.4 percent.
"This is yet another impressively strong Indian release, but the question is will it prove too strong for comfort?" said Robert Prior-Wandesforde, an HSBC economist based in Singapore.
Indian Finance Minister P. Chidambaram acknowledged that the government was concerned over excessive growth in some sectors, "where there are signs of what you will call overheating."
The government would like to dampen demand in sectors such as real estate and housing, he said. Chidambaram has repeatedly warned banks against too much lending in real estate, which experts believe is drawing large amounts of speculative money that could result in a property bubble.
India's central bank has repeatedly increased interest rates since December in a bid to discourage lending and slow growth. The economy has grown 9 percent annually in the past two years, but the brisk expansion has accelerated inflation, which has averaged more than 6 percent so far this year.
The increases in interest rates have affected car and motorcycle sales and production of such goods as refrigerators and television sets for which demand is often linked to easy finance. But there has been little impact on machine goods, construction material and the real estate.
Moreover, exports have been buoyant as Indian producer increasingly penetrate new markets abroad.
In March, industrial production rose 14.5 percent. The growth in April, at 13.6 percent, was much higher than what analysts expected.
Economists polled by the Dow Jones Newswires had predicted industrial output would rise 11 percent.
"One can still make the case that real monetary conditions remain loose in the country and that is perhaps why the signs of slowdown in the economy remain few and far between," said Prior-Wandesforde at HSBC.
Prices of government bonds fell as the data on industrial output led traders to speculate on another round of monetary tightening by the central bank.
Indias industrial output grows strongly
Daily Times, Pakistan
NEW DELHI: Indian industrial output in April rose 13.6 percent from a year earlier, led by demand for cars and other manufactured goods in the booming economy, official data showed Tuesday.
Manufacturing output alone was up 15.1 percent in April, the first month of Indias financial year, despite aggressive monetary tightening aimed at cooling inflation.
In March, industrial output rose a revised 14.5 percent, up from the initial estimate of 12.9 percent.
For the year to March 2007, industrial output, which accounts for a quarter of the economy, rose 11.3 percent compared to 8.2 percent the previous year, which helped the overall economy expand by a faster-than-expected 9.4 percent and raised concern of overheating.
Inflation, as measured by wholesale prices, has recently eased, falling to its lowest level in nearly a year at 4.85 percent in the week to May 26. Analysts have speculated that the central bank however may continue a monetary tightening cycle that began in late 2004 to tame prices further. afp