It’s perplexing to see New Delhi doing everything it possibly can but avoiding Kashmir - the raison d’etre of the whole Indo-Pak tussle. Even if we do away with the moral & legal duty of India to solve Kashmir, the current Geo-politics & Geo-economics will inflict heavy damage on India, should they decide to ignore this tumor of Kashmir. This tumor might have been benign till 1989 but it turned malignant right after that. Its malignancy is on the continued rise and has now assumed criticality where if it’s not miraculously cured, it will metastasize. The travesty of the sanity is that India seems to be ready for the latter and not the former. There is a reason for it. Right from 1947, all the governments in India used Kashmir to cater to its domestic constituency to show its bravados against Pakistan. This sensitization resulted in a poisonous & false public opinion in India, against any right of Kashmiris to demand implementation of the Indian promises to them.
As was rightly put out by India’s former Home Minster P. Chidambaram, in an Indian parliament, when he said ‘Kashmir is a story of broken promises’. Does an average Indian even know what those promises were? You ask an Indian selling Guthka & Cigarettes, about Kashmir-be a Muslim or Hindu, having no sense of history or international law, he can fulminate against Pakistan on the issue of Kashmir for hours. Now, the same public opinion is the hurdle for any Government in India to take any bold step on Kashmir.
Essentially the BJP, whose ascension knew no bounds because of such hyper-nationalist diatribe against Kashmir & minorities; and we qualify for both. Having said that, if sense prevails in the power corridors of BJP, they have more political capital to address Kashmir than the Congress. Modi’s recent statement of fighting a 1000-year war against poverty instead of Pakistan would’ve drawn flak, had it been said by a Non-BJP Prime Minister, at the time when country is starving for an instant revenge. Unfortunately, the Government is hell bent on taking the same old route of shying away from the question of Kashmir, while doing everything else to escape from it & its international ramifications. And that is sad.
If we analyze the current spell of tension- first in Kashmir from July 8th followed by an Uri attack- the aforementioned escapist policy becomes starker than ever before. Locally, they are using police & Army, killing hundreds & maiming thousands, blinding our children, earning bad name internationally, repeatedly coming & talking to the same people they talk to, in Delhi, while overusing fancy words like ‘reach out’ & ‘all stakeholders theory’. The only thing they avoid is to take Kashmir imbroglio head-on like statesmen, not like street politicians mired in self-ego.
SInce Islamabad took its brutalities in Kashmir to the international fraternity, their focus changed from solving Kashmir locally to avenging Pakistan internationally. Now, they began to devise strategies to cow down Pakistan and force it to silence. Modi invoked Balochistan, Gilgit-Baltistan & Azad Kashmir from the Red Fort on August 15th, in a bid to prick so called ‘soft underbelly of Pakistan
The moment I heard it, it was clear to me that it’s a one-track thinking. He forgot that all the three names he took forms the jugular vein of Chinese Economy as the China-Pakistan-Economic –Corridor (CPEC) passes through these three regions. It assumes more essentiality given the unfavorable decision of International Court of Justice (ICJ) against China in the South China Sea, which is where they would ship their goods from, through the ‘Strait of Malacca’, to be precise. That route proved costly for them which is why they went for the Gwadar Port in collaboration with Islamabad. Now that even South China Sea is technically disputed, messing with these regions in Pakistan is an existential threat to the Chinese which India can’t afford. It was proven when China warned of military action if India were to attack Pakistan.
The United Nations Human Rights Council sought access to the both sides of the L.O.C which Pakistan agreed but India flatly refused; again, giving out an impression that it has a lot to hide. It earned a condemnation by its Chief for such an irresponsible response and for its violations in Kashmir. Why earn a bad name? They even detained the human rights defender on his way to Geneva, followed by slapping PSA against him, which was widely condemned. Then they decided to ‘isolate Pakistan’. Forget my analysis; former Indian ambassador T.P Srinivasan calls it ‘a wild goose chase’. He says, ‘not even Russia condemned Pakistan for Uri’. Yet another Indian ambassador- M K Bhadrakumar says that the major powers continue to engage Pakistan and thinks it’s impossible to isolate Pakistan. He goes further and says that the intelligence agencies are yet to gather evidence against Pakistan in Uri attack and that it hampers their diplomat’s ability to present a compelling case to the world community. Moreover, condemning Uri attack is different from condemning Pakistan for it.
The reason why Indian public is again being misled by their melodramatic media, especially the Bollywood-influenced Indian middle-class about Isolation of Pakistan is because they believe it since it gives them a sense of being a Super-power, which they are not.
China is the major super power in the region, which gives sleepless nights even to the US. It has completely favored Pakistan & will retaliate militarily, not for its friendship with Pakistan alone but for its own economy. The US calls Kashmir to be solved between India & Pakistan, and does not buy Indian narrative of it being ‘an internal issue’. Just this week, it strengthened its military ties with Pakistan, at GHQ in a defense consultative group on Sept 21. \
The UNHRC chief as said above rebuked India on its rights violations in Kashmir. The UN chief itself expressed concern about the Kashmir situation. The US flatly rejected Balochistan theory of India, saying they do not support its independence. Russians, the all-weather friends & allies of Delhi is holding military drills with Pakistan Army at this belligerent time of Indo-Pak relations. What makes it more interesting is that India repeatedly asked Russia not to do it, but they did. Of course for their economic interests, but that’s what governs international relations in this era. The 57-member OIC completely backs Pakistan on Kashmir. Turkey, independently decided to send it mission to Kashmir. Iran expressed its desire to join CPEC
. Who are they fooling around? With Bangladesh & Bhutan, who can they isolate? Now, they’re trying to tamper with the Indus Water Treaty (IWT) which won’t work either, because China can block your Brahmaputra-called Yarlung Zangbo on the Chinese side.
My single question is: Why not to cure it where it’s gone bad? Address Kashmir and don’t beat around the bush. You won’t perennially get excuses to put us in the cold storage.
Mehboob Makhdoomi is a Harvardian & an MBA from Pennsylvania University (IUP) United States with a Research degree from Cardiff University, United Kingdom.