Indian Army Fears China Attack by 2017

[A1Kaid]

"Indian Army Fears China Attack by 2017"

Rahul Singh, Hindustan Times

New Delhi, March 26, 2009

The Indian military fears a ‘Chinese aggression’ in less than a decade. A secret exercise, called ‘Divine Matrix’, by the army’s military operations directorate has visualised a war scenario with the nuclear-armed neighbour before 2017.

“A misadventure by China is very much within the realm of possibility with Beijing trying to position itself as the only power in the region. There will be no nuclear warfare but a short, swift war that could have menacing consequences for India,” said an army officer, who was part of the three-day war games that ended on Wednesday.

In the military’s assessment, based on a six-month study of various scenarios before the war games, China would rely on information warfare (IW) to bring India down on its knees before launching an offensive.

The war games saw generals raising concerns about the IW battalions of the People’s Liberation Army carrying out hacker attacks for military espionage, intelligence collection, paralysing communication systems, compromising airport security, inflicting damage on the banking system and disabling power grids. “We need to spend more on developing information warfare capability,” he said.

The war games dispelled the notion that China would take at least one season (one year) for a substantial military build-up across India’s northeastern frontiers. “The Tibetan infrastructure has been improved considerably. The PLA can now launch an assault very quickly, without any warning, the officer said.

The military believes that China would have swamped Tibet with sweeping demographic changes in the medium term. For the purposes of Divine Matrix, China would call Dalai Lama for rapprochement and neutralise him. The top brass also brainstormed over India’s options in case Pakistan joined the war to. Another apprehension was that Myanmar and Bangladesh would align with China in the future geostrategic environment.

Source: Indian Army fears China attack by 2017- Hindustan Times


Here's my take on this.

We do know China wishes to assert it's power in the region, and India remains a hurdle a potential challenger, and threat to China. The policy makers and War strategist in the United States use India to contain China's prowess and influence, they use India as a satellite state that can possibly weaken China's sovereignty over Tibet and other parts of China. So it is a long term genuine goal of Chinese policy makers to defeat India and deliver a menacing and crushing blow to India. Chinese policy makers already acknowledge India as a national threat to security, and there is no doubt Chinese Generals are waiting for the day to strike and defeat India.


Now this war will most likely be a swift large military campaign. China over the past decades has been building the necessary military infrastructure in Tibet to launch quick incursions into Indian territory, they have also expanded their informational war capability, i.e. hacking, technical sabotage, computer warfare against banks, institutions, and military networks and lines of communications.

There is no doubt the Red Dragon will put India in the Dragon's headlock, and India will choke and suffer, in fact Indian army will be overwhelmed and will be forced to divide their Army's stationing, India will have to depending on the heavy losses it will suffer in the war, remove it's divisions from the Western border with Pakistan.

When India begins suffering heavy losses, it is in Pakistan's military interest to wage War against India. The goal, liberating Kashmir. With India engaged in a bloody war with China, it will be very difficult for it to face the assault of two powerful countries. Also, because this war will be quick (perhaps less than a month) India's allies will be of little use, as Pakistan and China both border India and can directly attack India immediately...Now it is not likely India will use Nuclear weapons, because if it does it may lose it's entire nation to Pakistan and China, as soon as China detects India's plans of using Nukes, you can rest assure China and Pakistan will deploy the Sun.


There is no doubt, that what China is doing is trying to transform the Geo-Political platform of Asia. China is preparing a new power balance in Asia. With China leading mainland (East) Asia and Pakistan leading South Asia and parts of Central Asia. Chinese Generals and Pakistani Generals are military brothers, who trust each other deeply, despite cultural differences the military bond and relationship between the two nations is outstanding.


There shall be a new Power Axis in Asia, and that will be China and Pakistan.

 

[A1Kaid]

Here is an excellent in-depth article that explores the Geo-Politics of China-India tensions, plans, and possible War. It also explores US involvement.



Could China and India go to war over Tibet?


Tue, 03/10/2009 - 11:47am

By Dan Twining

Today is the 50th anniversary of the Lhasa uprising. Much of the associated commentary suggests that Tibet is, at most, an internal human rights issue in China, albeit one that impacts China's foreign relations with Western democracies who care about the plight of the Tibetan people. Indeed, the Dalai Lama's admission that Tibet is part of China, and that he seeks true autonomy rather than actual independence for his people, reaffirm this view. There is also, however, an external dimension to the Tibetan crisis, one that implicates core national security interests of nuclear-armed great powers.

This is the role Tibet's dispensation plays in the conflict between China and India. Indian strategist C. Raja Mohan puts it bluntly: "When there is relative tranquility in Tibet, India and China have reasonably good relations. When Sino-Tibetan tensions rise, India's relationship with China heads south." Although not widely recognized in the West, the nexus of Tibet and the unresolved border conflict between China and India ranks with the Taiwan Strait and Korean peninsula among Asia's leading flashpoints.

Contrary to Chinese propaganda, Tibet was not traditionally a part of China. Over the centuries, relations between China and Tibet were characterized by varying degrees of association spanning the spectrum from sovereignty to suzerainty to independence. The People's Liberation Army invaded Tibet in the middle of the last century precisely because Tibetans did not consent to Beijing's rule.

For its part, prior to Indian independence, then-British India vigorously supported Tibetan autonomy and sponsored the Himalayan kingdoms of Nepal, Bhutan, Sikkim, and Ladakh to create an expansive geographic buffer between China and the subcontinent. John Garver's excellent history of Sino-Indian rivalry contains useful maps depicting a rump China and an expansive Indian subcontinent separated by a vast, autonomous Tibet, demonstrating how far apart were India and China geographically until Chinese unification by the Communist Party several years after Indian independence gave them a common border.

That common border has since been a source of conflict. As is well known, India and China went to war over their territorial dispute in 1962, ending the era of what Indian Prime Minister Nehru called "Hindi-Chini bhai-bhai" ("Indians and Chinese are brothers"). What is less well known in the West is that China, while subsequently resolving 17 of its 18 outstanding land border disputes with neighboring countries, has kept the territorial conflict with India alive, at times appearing to inflame the issue as a source of leverage over New Delhi.

Over the past two years, Chinese officials have publicly asserted Chinese claims to the entire Indian state of Arunachal Pradesh, which some Chinese military advisors and strategists refer to as "Southern Tibet." Chinese forces have periodically engaged in small-scale cross-border encroachments, destroying Indian military bunkers and patrol bases in Ladakh and Sikkim.

At the same time, China has been systematically constructing road and rail networks across the Tibetan plateau in ways that tilt the balance of forces along the contested frontier in China's favor[A1Kaid: I made this point in my post as well, that China has constructed the military infrastructure in Tibet to attack India]; India has responded with infrastructure projects of its own, including roads and air fields, to enable military reinforcement of its border regions, but has failed to keep pace with its northern neighbor. China has also positioned large numbers of military and security forces on the Tibetan plateau, mainly with an eye on suppressing popular unrest. But the possibility of using them to "teach India a lesson" (as in 1962) remains.

Indian pundits note that public reminders from Beijing of China's decisive victory over India in the 1962 war have spiked over the past year, sending what Indians believe is a clear signal to New Delhi at a time of rising tensions. Combined with China's reported deployment in Tibet of nuclear missiles targeting India, officials in New Delhi feel increasingly alarmed in the face of Chinese provocation. In striking statements little noted in the West, both Indian External Affairs Minister Pranab Mukherjee and respected former National Security Advisor Brajesh Mishra recently warned China against any attempt to seize Indian-held territory along their contested border.

Surging border tensions may be related to worries in Beijing over the Dalai Lama's succession. Some of the holiest sites in Tibetan Buddhism, including the sacred monastery at Tawang, are in Indian-held territory. The Dalai Lama, who has been in poor health, has said that he would not feel obligated to nominate a successor from, or be reborn in, Tibet proper, raising the possibility that the next Dalai Lama could be named outside China -- in the Tibetan cultural belt that stretches across northern India into Bhutan and Nepal.

Some Indian strategists fear that China may act to preempt, or respond to, an announcement of the Dalai Lama's chosen successor in India - particularly in Tawang -- by deploying the People's Liberation Army to occupy contested territory along the Sino-Indian border, as occurred in 1962, creating a risk of military conflict between the now nuclear-armed Asian giants.

Although China enjoys the dominant military position in the Tibetan plateau, India still has cards to play. It hosts the Dalai Lama's government-in-exile in Dharamsala, enabling Tibet's representatives to keep their cause alive in the court of world opinion. And unlike Britain -- which last October withdrew its recognition of China's "suzerainty" (in favor of "sovereignty") over Tibet in a failed effort to placate Beijing, leading one scornful Singaporean commentator to note that China was "bringing Europe to its knees" -- India continues to recognize only Chinese suzerainty over Tibet, rather than full and consensual sovereignty. This creates the possibility that New Delhi could play a "Tibet card" in its relations with Beijing in the same way that China accuses the United States of playing a "Taiwan card" to keep it off balance.

What do Sino-Indian border tensions linked to the Tibetan cause mean for the United States?

First, the U.S. has a compelling interest in preventing conflict between one of its largest trading partners and its newfound strategic partner.

Second, historic U.S. support for the cause of human rights in Tibet, in addition to Washington's growing military ties with New Delhi, mean that the United States would find it difficult to be a neutral arbiter in such a conflict.

Third, India's continuing political and moral support for the Tibetan government-in-exile demonstrates that it shares with America a set of ideals in foreign policy, creating the basis for greater values-based cooperation between Washington and New Delhi - a prospect that has not gone unnoticed in Beijing.

Fourth, given China's development of military capabilities designed to threaten U.S. access to the Western Pacific and Southeast Asian waterways, Chinese pressure on U.S. friends including the Philippines and Vietnam to back down on claims to contested islets in the South China Sea, and Chinese harassment of the U.S. Navy in Asian waters, Washington has an important interest in making perfectly clear to Beijing that the use of force to resolve contested territorial claims or limit freedom of the seas is unacceptable -- and could upend rather than facilitate China's peaceful rise.


Source: Could China and India go to war over Tibet? By Dan Twining | Shadow Government

 

[pakomar]

I think its not gona happen but if it dose than India must pray now.

 

[PeacefulIndian]

Old article. Has been discussed in depth on this forum. Why dig out old articles from the graves?

I think its not gona happen but if it dose than India must pray now.

How about praying for your country first? Will at least help 1 million IDPs.

 

[Ghareeb_Da_Baal]

Old article. Has been discussed in depth on this forum. Why dig out old articles from the graves?



How about praying for your country first? Will at least help 1 million IDPs.

stop being a pu$$^.........grow a pair. It wont kill you , now would it?
Why dont you go to your indian forums & tell them how & what to post?
Nice name BTW, doesnt match your personality at all.......

 

[roadrunner]

Just an excuse to spend more money on the Indian military.

 

[Hasnain2009]

Old article. Has been discussed in depth on this forum.

Where...??

 

[Jihad]

Old one indeed, nonetheless, very interesting.
Good excuse for the IA to absorb more funds from the government.

 

[nik007]

Old one indeed, nonetheless, very interesting.
Good excuse for the IA to absorb more funds from the government.

most probable answer.
still....
a day will come in the far future.....

 

[Contrarian]

Old one indeed, nonetheless, very interesting.
Good excuse for the IA to absorb more funds from the government.

Did not know, India needs an 'excuse' to spend money on its military?
We already have the lowest military spending as a portion of our GDP in Asia barring Bangladesh.

 

[PeacefulIndian]

Where...??

http://www.defence.pk/forums/india-defence/24029-indian-army-fears-china-attack-2017-a.html

 

[Sino-PakFriendship]

Here is an excellent in-depth article that explores the Geo-Politics of China-India tensions, plans, and possible War. It also explores US involvement.



Could China and India go to war over Tibet?


Tue, 03/10/2009 - 11:47am

By Dan Twining

Today is the 50th anniversary of the Lhasa uprising. Much of the associated commentary suggests that Tibet is, at most, an internal human rights issue in China, albeit one that impacts China's foreign relations with Western democracies who care about the plight of the Tibetan people. Indeed, the Dalai Lama's admission that Tibet is part of China, and that he seeks true autonomy rather than actual independence for his people, reaffirm this view. There is also, however, an external dimension to the Tibetan crisis, one that implicates core national security interests of nuclear-armed great powers.

This is the role Tibet's dispensation plays in the conflict between China and India. Indian strategist C. Raja Mohan puts it bluntly: "When there is relative tranquility in Tibet, India and China have reasonably good relations. When Sino-Tibetan tensions rise, India's relationship with China heads south." Although not widely recognized in the West, the nexus of Tibet and the unresolved border conflict between China and India ranks with the Taiwan Strait and Korean peninsula among Asia's leading flashpoints.

Contrary to Chinese propaganda, Tibet was not traditionally a part of China. Over the centuries, relations between China and Tibet were characterized by varying degrees of association spanning the spectrum from sovereignty to suzerainty to independence. The People's Liberation Army invaded Tibet in the middle of the last century precisely because Tibetans did not consent to Beijing's rule.

For its part, prior to Indian independence, then-British India vigorously supported Tibetan autonomy and sponsored the Himalayan kingdoms of Nepal, Bhutan, Sikkim, and Ladakh to create an expansive geographic buffer between China and the subcontinent. John Garver's excellent history of Sino-Indian rivalry contains useful maps depicting a rump China and an expansive Indian subcontinent separated by a vast, autonomous Tibet, demonstrating how far apart were India and China geographically until Chinese unification by the Communist Party several years after Indian independence gave them a common border.

That common border has since been a source of conflict. As is well known, India and China went to war over their territorial dispute in 1962, ending the era of what Indian Prime Minister Nehru called "Hindi-Chini bhai-bhai" ("Indians and Chinese are brothers"). What is less well known in the West is that China, while subsequently resolving 17 of its 18 outstanding land border disputes with neighboring countries, has kept the territorial conflict with India alive, at times appearing to inflame the issue as a source of leverage over New Delhi.

Over the past two years, Chinese officials have publicly asserted Chinese claims to the entire Indian state of Arunachal Pradesh, which some Chinese military advisors and strategists refer to as "Southern Tibet." Chinese forces have periodically engaged in small-scale cross-border encroachments, destroying Indian military bunkers and patrol bases in Ladakh and Sikkim.

At the same time, China has been systematically constructing road and rail networks across the Tibetan plateau in ways that tilt the balance of forces along the contested frontier in China's favor[A1Kaid: I made this point in my post as well, that China has constructed the military infrastructure in Tibet to attack India]; India has responded with infrastructure projects of its own, including roads and air fields, to enable military reinforcement of its border regions, but has failed to keep pace with its northern neighbor. China has also positioned large numbers of military and security forces on the Tibetan plateau, mainly with an eye on suppressing popular unrest. But the possibility of using them to "teach India a lesson" (as in 1962) remains.

Indian pundits note that public reminders from Beijing of China's decisive victory over India in the 1962 war have spiked over the past year, sending what Indians believe is a clear signal to New Delhi at a time of rising tensions. Combined with China's reported deployment in Tibet of nuclear missiles targeting India, officials in New Delhi feel increasingly alarmed in the face of Chinese provocation. In striking statements little noted in the West, both Indian External Affairs Minister Pranab Mukherjee and respected former National Security Advisor Brajesh Mishra recently warned China against any attempt to seize Indian-held territory along their contested border.

Surging border tensions may be related to worries in Beijing over the Dalai Lama's succession. Some of the holiest sites in Tibetan Buddhism, including the sacred monastery at Tawang, are in Indian-held territory. The Dalai Lama, who has been in poor health, has said that he would not feel obligated to nominate a successor from, or be reborn in, Tibet proper, raising the possibility that the next Dalai Lama could be named outside China -- in the Tibetan cultural belt that stretches across northern India into Bhutan and Nepal.

Some Indian strategists fear that China may act to preempt, or respond to, an announcement of the Dalai Lama's chosen successor in India - particularly in Tawang -- by deploying the People's Liberation Army to occupy contested territory along the Sino-Indian border, as occurred in 1962, creating a risk of military conflict between the now nuclear-armed Asian giants.

Although China enjoys the dominant military position in the Tibetan plateau, India still has cards to play. It hosts the Dalai Lama's government-in-exile in Dharamsala, enabling Tibet's representatives to keep their cause alive in the court of world opinion. And unlike Britain -- which last October withdrew its recognition of China's "suzerainty" (in favor of "sovereignty") over Tibet in a failed effort to placate Beijing, leading one scornful Singaporean commentator to note that China was "bringing Europe to its knees" -- India continues to recognize only Chinese suzerainty over Tibet, rather than full and consensual sovereignty. This creates the possibility that New Delhi could play a "Tibet card" in its relations with Beijing in the same way that China accuses the United States of playing a "Taiwan card" to keep it off balance.

What do Sino-Indian border tensions linked to the Tibetan cause mean for the United States?

First, the U.S. has a compelling interest in preventing conflict between one of its largest trading partners and its newfound strategic partner.

Second, historic U.S. support for the cause of human rights in Tibet, in addition to Washington's growing military ties with New Delhi, mean that the United States would find it difficult to be a neutral arbiter in such a conflict.

Third, India's continuing political and moral support for the Tibetan government-in-exile demonstrates that it shares with America a set of ideals in foreign policy, creating the basis for greater values-based cooperation between Washington and New Delhi - a prospect that has not gone unnoticed in Beijing.

Fourth, given China's development of military capabilities designed to threaten U.S. access to the Western Pacific and Southeast Asian waterways, Chinese pressure on U.S. friends including the Philippines and Vietnam to back down on claims to contested islets in the South China Sea, and Chinese harassment of the U.S. Navy in Asian waters, Washington has an important interest in making perfectly clear to Beijing that the use of force to resolve contested territorial claims or limit freedom of the seas is unacceptable -- and could upend rather than facilitate China's peaceful rise.


Source: Could China and India go to war over Tibet? By Dan Twining | Shadow Government

So-called Tibetan independence is the conspiracy of USA, UK and India.

China has NOT ANY negotiation about Tibetan independence!

China Today is not China in 100 years ago.


Both KMT and CCP never recognize Tibetan independence!

Also Tibetan government-on-exile claim Qinghai (Amdo), which was under Chinese warload Ma Po Fong family to govern in 1911-1951.

Tibetan nobles only governed Lhasa and neighbouring area.


Should China war with

India about Kashmir Muslim, Skih people?

UK for Scotland and N. Ireland?

USA for Texas, Hawaii?

The writter should have full check of his brain!

 

[ihero06]

me people in this forum are really "Pollyannas" .

I just want to ask some of the people in this forum, the so called the guardians of their religious faith, whether any army which attacks their religious brothers will they support that army or not. I have been studying Asia, especially South Asia for a long time. And this is what I can say.

If China attacks India, where do they attack first: Northeast Frontier Agency (present day Arunachal Pradesh) then to Assam to Calcutta, from where Indian mainland starts. Up in north, PLA attacks from North of Kashmir, enters Kashmir capital, then to plains of north India (Punjab?).

Let's talk about one such situation. PLA is coming to Calcutta, through NEFA corridor. In Assam more than 30% of population is Bengal Muslims. Normally one can see a massacre of local population in a major war (remember the Japanese invasion in China, Nazi Germany in Russia). In this case, killing of local muslim population by PLA bound to happen (along with local people). Then PLA enters Calcutta State through India's chicken neck.

After hearing the news of killing by Bengal muslims, do the Pakistani Muslims think they should celebrate PLA invasion of India? And muslims in Bengal will celebrating PLA invasion in India. Bengaldesh muslims will join India to fight PLA. So at chicken neck region, PLA can expect a real mess.

If PLA succeeds that attack at chicken neck and enters main land India, they reach next two states, Bihar and Uttar Pradesh, which hold <50% of Indian Muslims population. Another massacre. Do the muslims around the world will enjoy the killing of Indian Muslims? At the end of war, Muslim population in India would be reduced by more than 20-30% than today. From 180 million to 140-130 million.

Suppose, Indian Muslims join PLA. In that case, scenario completely changes. But I do not think, that will happen in the next 30-50 years. By then, plight of Uyghur Muslims will be at the highest. I wouldn't be surprised if some Pak Talibanis joining Uyghur muslims against PLA.

Now, Is PLA really brave to do this attack? I think, they would be really foolish to go for a misadventure like this. Why?
Indian subcontinent is a really a difficult place for an occupying force, though it look just simple plain and a smooth ride for a big army like PLA. When was the last time an army attacked (full scale attack) Indian continent? In WW II. Jap Army conquered China, Thailand, Burma and they reached Indian border. However, the preset of monsoon stopped Jap Army. They had a smooth ride all the way from China Eastern border to Indian Border. But their machines failed in tropical rainy climate, their tanks couldn't reach there.

If you study the attacks on Indian continent, it was the invaders from middle east who succeeded in occupying India. But it took more than 150-200 years to rule to India, and that too the invader decided to stay in India, instead of taking the looted wealth back to his country. Probably Babar felt that it would be better to feel the wealth of India for a long time than enjoying the the looted wealth in his own country.

But again, they could not sustain their rule for more than 300 years. British came and conquered India. But again, they took more than 150 years! to conquer India. Of course, now the technology has improved, we have latest war machines and bombs, missles, rockets. But there are a lot of other factors too. Suppose, PLA starts the invasion in May, by that time the temp in I-subC would be in 50C. I am sure, many of weapons, machines like bombs, tanks, fighter planes will fail in that hot, humid weather. And PLA cannot withstand the Indian monsoon for a long time.

So how powerful may be the army, it is not easy to conquer India. And I think, PLA knows very well about India's missles. Do they wish to see 100s of missiles over Beijing or Shanghai or any eastern states which can destroy 60-70% of Chinese wealth? I would say NO. They want to be number one in the world. Why should the PLA risk that super power position by attacking India? That's was the main reason why USA and USSR didn't go for war during the cold era.

Of course, PLA likes to do some small adventures against India. They go for a small invasion in NEFA. That's why IA is barking at the Indian Politicians. As far as I know, India's eastern regions are the least developed. There are no major highways that extend to the border areas. Their Army know very well, but not their politicians. I am also skptical about their Russian tanks, whether they will work in humid weather in their north eastern plains. They need their own tanks. In higher hilly regions, they have Bofors gun which is really a big advantage for IA.

But China wants to subvert India. If China has a competitor in this world, it is India. Wherever they go, the Indians will be their competitor; in education, wealth, technology, trade, research etc. Moreover, Chinese know very well that their population is aging. So why should they destroy their own population by going for war? Nevertheless, they have to undermine India some how.

That is where Pakistan's role comes to play. If there is no Pakistan, India would have been an economic power like China, if not better. That brought me an interesting discussion with my batch mate, a Chinese -son of a prominent party leader, couple of years ago.

He said, whether you guys believe me or not, Pakistan is like China's one of the two pawns. They need it for the sake of betterment of their nation with respect to India. The moment PLA feels that Pakistan is not useful to them, they will dump. He sighted some examples when I argued. So when I read China did not provide any financial assistant to Pakistan last year, I was not surprised. May be, Chinese had a "plan" which Pakistan did not want to work out . It would be an interesting topic the China-Pakistan Relation-so called all weather friendship.

Anyway, coming back to PLA attack on India, a full scale war with INdia ruled out from Chinese point of view. But they will bleed India through Pakistan, Burma, Bengaldesh. And most recently Nepal. Complete control of Nepal by Maoist Govt is a nightmare for India. And not good for other Nepalese either.

Thank you.