India without aircraft carrier as China takes huge strides

[neehar]

Our problems are in the Pacific and the SCS.

I have no idea why we would try the Indian Ocean when we don't even have a blue water navy.

exactly my point why are people behind china??china is just tryn to adapt to its carrier and it takes time to exel in it..even if they did the role of their carrier is much demanded in scs rather than in ior...besides i dont see any war between both nation in the near future which would risk both the economies.we'll recieve our carrier by the end of this year most probably even viraat too becomes operational which means we would have 2 carriers for 2 seas.

 

[Jayanta]

Similarly, MRCA and LCA wont come before 2030

Keep dreaming and praying for that dude....but the fact is that by 2030 LCA-MK4 will be flying and IAC-3 will be sailing.

 

[scarcry]

IAC 1 2017-18
GORSHKOV 2013
VIRAAT TILL 2021?

aur kitna loge babuji, 5 vadapao aur?

 

[gubbi]

Our problems are in the Pacific and the SCS.

Those are simply international relations problems. Problems which in the end will have diplomatic solutions with or without (hopefully) military use.

I have no idea why we would try the Indian Ocean when we don't even have a blue water navy.

This on the other hand, is the major route of energy traffic into China - especially the narrow Straits of Malacca. The IOR is ruled by the IN and USN both of which have a heavy presence in the region. Now energy demands cannot be stalled as one would stall a diplomatic mission/negotiation, no?

Blue water navy or not, China is definitely trying to grab the control (read influence to affect shipping traffic) of atleast the Malacca straits from India.

 

[Chinese-Dragon]

Those are simply international relations problems. Problems which in the end will have diplomatic solutions with or without (hopefully) military use.

This on the other hand, is the major route of energy traffic into China - especially the narrow Straits of Malacca. The IOR is ruled by the IN and USN both of which have a heavy presence in the region. Now energy demands cannot be stalled as one would stall a diplomatic mission/negotiation, no?

Blue water navy or not, China is definitely trying to grab the control (read influence to affect shipping traffic) of atleast the Malacca straits from India.

Yeah of course we want to do what we can to stabilize the supply routes.

Anyway, look at a map of the Malacca Straits:

There are plenty of other routes all around Indonesia, it is just that Malacca is the fastest way.

Plus we get about half our oil from elsewhere, such as pipelines to Central Asia and Russia, as well as oil suppliers in SE Asia (Indonesia/Malaysia), and the oil suppliers from across the Pacific like Canada and Venezuela.

 

[gubbi]

Yeah of course we want to do what we can to stabilize the supply routes.
Anyway, look at a map of the Malacca Straits:
There are plenty of other routes all around Indonesia, it is just that Malacca is the fastest way.

Plus we get about half our oil from elsewhere, such as pipelines to Central Asia and Russia, as well as oil suppliers in SE Asia (Indonesia/Malaysia), and the oil suppliers from across the Pacific like Canada and Venezuela.

Of course. But I am not talking about China's needs alone. Those shipping lanes are among the busiest in the world providing for energy needs of many South and East Asian countries. A round about trip around Indonesia would result in increases in shipping costs reflecting in higher prices for consumers to pay. It might not affect China's power needs but significantly affects the needs of surrounding countries, who do not have the resources that China has.

Now imagine if China with a capable blue water carrier battle group which can challenge, if not neutralize, both IN and USN control of the region, can easily squeeze the Malacca Straits, turn off energy supply to these countries and then pressurize them into accepting China's terms. Remember Khrushchev? He once said that if he wanted the west to scream he would squeeze on Berlin, calling the city the "west's testicles".

Now with a hawkish change of guard in China coupled with a 10% increase in military budget, who knows, someone might consider the Malacca straits to be someone's testicles.

ps: But this is mere speculation. I am just having fun with different scenarios.

 

[Chinese-Dragon]

Of course. But I am not talking about China's needs alone. Those shipping lanes are among the busiest in the world providing for energy needs of many South and East Asian countries. A round about trip around Indonesia would result in increases in shipping costs reflecting in higher prices for consumers to pay. It might not affect China's power needs but significantly affects the needs of surrounding countries, who do not have the resources that China has.

Now imagine if China with a capable blue water carrier battle group which can challenge, if not neutralize, both IN and USN control of the region, can easily squeeze the Malacca Straits, turn off energy supply to these countries and then pressurize them into accepting China's terms. Remember Khrushchev? He once said that if he wanted the west to scream he would squeeze on Berlin, calling the city the "west's testicles".

Now with a hawkish change of guard in China coupled with a 10% increase in military budget, who knows, someone might consider the Malacca straits to be someone's testicles.

ps: But this is mere speculation. I am just having fun with different scenarios.

I see what you mean.

But frankly China does not (and will not) have the Naval power to blockade the Malacca straits if the USA doesn't want it to be blocked.

Such a scenario could only occur in 40-50 years from now, and probably not even then. The US Navy is just so far ahead.

Plus, most commercial ships in the world use "Flags of Convenience" rather than the flag of the destination nation. Identifying which ships to stop and which to let through would become impossible since the majority of commercial ships use these flags of convenience.

 

[gubbi]

But frankly China does not (and will not) have the Naval power to blockade the Malacca straits if the USA doesn't want it to be blocked.

Not unless China wrests control of Andaman and Nicobar islands from India. That is one HUGE natural aircraft carrier in one of the most important shipping bottlenecks in the world.

Such a scenario could only occur in 40-50 years from now, and probably not even then. The US Navy is just so far ahead.

I wouldnt write off Indian military so easily. Even with a modest presence, India can still effectively upset China's (unsavory and hegemonic, if any) ambitions. This without USN involvement.

Plus, most commercial ships in the world use "Flags of Convenience" rather than the flag of the destination nation. Identifying which ships to stop and which to let through would become impossible since the majority of commercial ships use these flags of convenience.

Who cares in times of conflict? Also, as I see it, it would not be one single country that China would want on its knees (no sir, nothing kinky here). With SCS, the conflict is and would be with multiple countries. So any merchant/commercial ship carrying crude oil or natural gas would be a target. Period.

Isnt that exactly why China is trying to sort out this SCS mess by negotiating directly with one country at a time?

 

[Chinese-Dragon]

Who cares in times of conflict? Also, as I see it, it would not be one single country that China would want on its knees (no sir, nothing kinky here). With SCS, the conflict is and would be with multiple countries. So any merchant/commercial ship carrying crude oil or natural gas would be a target. Period.

What if the ships don't stop? If we fire on a ship, we are declaring war on the country that has its flag on that ship.

And due to the "Flags of Convenience" we could end up inadvertently declaring war with hundreds of different random countries simply by firing at ships passing through the Malacca straits.

Isnt that exactly why China is trying to sort out this SCS mess by negotiating directly with one country at a time?

The Chinese Government will try to exert pressure using a variety of means, but something as ambitious as blocking Malacca can't be done at this time. Even hypothetically it is very difficult to think of how it could happen.

 

[ANPP]

Yeah of course we want to do what we can to stabilize the supply routes.

Anyway, look at a map of the Malacca Straits:

There are plenty of other routes all around Indonesia, it is just that Malacca is the fastest way.

Plus we get about half our oil from elsewhere, such as pipelines to Central Asia and Russia, as well as oil suppliers in SE Asia (Indonesia/Malaysia), and the oil suppliers from across the Pacific like Canada and Venezuela.

If you follow another route from Indonesia, that will surely increase path by a long distance. You need to put hole new infrastructure around that for that ferry.
You can not relay on country/region like Canada/S. America which are under USA's influance.
And now Indonesia is not oil exported anymore. It is impoerter of oil.

 

[gubbi]

What if the ships don't stop? If we fire on a ship, we are declaring war on the country that has its flag on that ship.

And due to the "Flags of Convenience" we could end up inadvertently declaring war with hundreds of different random countries simply by firing at ships passing through the Malacca straits.

Now this gets interesting.
For one, if a military flotilla or an armada steams into the straits looking for trouble, most shipping companies would stop sending their ships into the conflict zone.
Second, what country's flag would a captain of an oil carrier risk flying? Anywho, a merchant ship would dare not defy a military ship in a conflict zone, would it?

The Chinese Government will try to exert pressure using a variety of means, but something as ambitious as blocking Malacca can't be done at this time. Even hypothetically it is very difficult to think of how it could happen.

Agreed. Cannot be done without dragging India and US, together, into the conflict. Just like Iran cannot/will not obstruct shipping in the Hormuz strait, Malacca Strait's shipping lanes cannot be blocked without drawing the wrath of many many countries.

 

[Chinese-Dragon]

Now this gets interesting.
For one, if a military flotilla or an armada steams into the straits looking for trouble, most shipping companies would stop sending their ships into the conflict zone.
Second, what country's flag would a captain of an oil carrier risk flying? Anywho, a merchant ship would dare not defy a military ship in a conflict zone, would it?

Ships can be registered under any flag, and the majority of merchant vessels do not use their own flags (mostly to reduce costs).

Shipping companies will use a vast array of different flags for their ships. And they can be persuaded to go through danger zones with an increase in payment, since it is unlikely they will ever be shot at in any case.

And even if somehow we were successful in blocking ALL the ships (far fetched), then any damage to the regional economies in East and SE Asia would end up severely damaging our own economy. Since these are our biggest trading partners.

 

[danger007]

Those are simply international relations problems. Problems which in the end will have diplomatic solutions with or without (hopefully) military use.

This on the other hand, is the major route of energy traffic into China - especially the narrow Straits of Malacca. The IOR is ruled by the IN and USN both of which have a heavy presence in the region. Now energy demands cannot be stalled as one would stall a diplomatic mission/negotiation, no?

Blue water navy or not, China is definitely trying to grab the control (read influence to affect shipping traffic) of atleast the Malacca straits from India.

Our main asset is AN islands... may be they won't try to grab, it will alarm USN..... They won't risk that chance.... US will get involve If china try to control straights..... Might they will try to minimize effectiveness of IN...

 

[Subho]

24 January 2013, Pipavav Defence and
Offshore Engineering Company Ltd has
informed BSE that the Company successfully
delivered yet another masterpiece a 74,500
DWT Panamax Bulk Carrier namely "The
Golden Brilliant” on January 21, 2013, to
GOLDEN BRILLIANT INC., a group Company
of GOLDEN OCEAN GROUP LTD., a Company
headquartered in Norway.
Dimensions of the vessel are given below:
Length, overall : 224.9 Meters
Breadth, moulded : 32.25 Meters
Depth, moulded : 19.7 Meters
This is the ‘LARGEST’ dry bulk carrier of its
class ever built in India



why not go for building a/c and bigger ships in these pvt shipyards.

 

[newdelhinsa]

And why would ou want to sunk Chinese carrier ???

Good one, Since India isn't going to have ACC in near future, make sense