Hi,
Will India strike again at a place and time of their chosing---. The loss and damage that it has suffered at the hands of the pak military after day of incursion into Pakistan has been of astronomical proportions---and that is only what is visible to the world---and not what is hidden in the military bases that were struck---.
Losing 3 aircraft and a helicopter within the same time frame to an enemy it thought would no even whimper.
What simply astounds me is---what was India really thinking---. Was it thinking that it has become the united states of america---or it has suddenly evolved into the state of Israel---the enemy---a poorly equipped and handicapped afghan taliban or helpless Palestinians with nothing to fight back with---.
It is simply so shocking to see India taking this kind of action against a nuclear neighbor. I just cannot comprehend that how did the indian military analysts failed so bad about pakistan's fire power and determination to strike back---how did the indian intel agencies fail to inform their prime minister about the reality---bottomline is---and the most important question to ask is---on whose gesture did india strike at pakistan---.
Who gave the go ahead to india to take on pakistan at this crucial juncture of change coming in pakistan---? The answer to these questions would really be intriguing and would be interesting to know who the instigator was---.
There is a lot of conjecture in your statement regarding the damage done or Indian casualties inflicted as a direct bombing by Pakistan. I think Pakistan clearly avoided attacking military sites, instead choose to bomb around them, when Pakistani jets locked on to those targets it was to show that we can come and hit any time we choose to but today we are choosing not to. So it was a warning shot. If Pakistan had hit a div HQ, India would be running all over the world and trying to paint Pakistan as the aggressor because during Indian press briefing right after the so called surgical strike, India made it clear that it did not hit any military targets in Pakistan. This was done deliberately not to paint India as the instigator of war, wishful thinking on Indian part.
There is a part of your statement I do agree with is insane level of under estimation of Pakistan capability, and its willingness to reply in a way we did. Although they were expecting that our jet might cross and just violate their airspace, but two things they didnt expect clearly was loosing two of their jets + 1 pilot captures along with bombing within 24 hours. Indians might also had been assured or assumed that Americans wont allow Pakistan to escalate the situation further. IAF and military leadership was clearly caught off guard, because the time it took them to acknowledge that we did indeed bombed them and took their planes down. But in order to save face they made a preposterous claim of mig21 taking down an F16, even after 2 to 3 days nothing but some missile parts with wrong serial numbers and media trying to push mig-21 fuselage as engine from that of F16.
Indian planners, if they are sane will not indulge in further direct actions, for some time now as they clearly got more than they bargained for. Who ever put India on this tract, and turned the whole nation into mindless mob demanding blood are the biggest enemies of India and its people.
I can answer, if you are looking for an answer from statergic point of view...Personally, I will prefer to screw Kashmir valley rather than a war with Pakistan...Because, i feel, Pakistan is not the problem rather problem is internal..
Coming to statergic question....If we go by the mindset of current Indian GOV, India tried to bait Pakistan by crossing the border...It would have been better if Pakistan would have attacked and damaged certain visible military institution inside Indian territory...Remember, in a war, it is expected that loss of life will happen...But we should be able to justify the loss of life...Unfortunately, Pakistan did not take the bait...they crossed the border but could not destroy any visible impact on ground.... Loosing few aircraft is not an enough reason to attack on Pakistan military...It will present us as an aggressor...When IAF crossed LOC to attack militant camp, we played the victim card from terrorism, but now, in order to have a full blown attack, we need Pakistan to make some mistake by attacking and making some visible loss...Otherwise, nothing is going to happen...
Kashmir is the core of all our problems, the sooner both sides sit down and resolve it the better for us and the rest of humanity. If we care about our future and that of our coming generations, the sooner we resolve this the better.
You raised an interesting point about trying to bait Pakistan into attacking, I am not too sure about that. In my opinion this whole surgical strike was for domestic consumption just like the last one. Other than refuting Indian claim of Uri strike there wasnt much action seen on both sides. India got what it wanted for its domestic consumption, Pakistan didnt care much for it. But this time it seems India had some other intentions of actually carrying out some sort of bombing run, now why would Indian leadership be this foolish is truly beyond me. If it was a simple airspace violation with no payload destruction, I think Pakistan would have still called Indian Strike as BS and things would have moved on. But the moment Indian physically dropped bombs or fuel tanks Pakistan was left no choice but to react. India was actually surprised and was caught off guard. As for the bait part, it could very well be that IAF was actually baited into engaging PAF, which was ready and inflicted humiliating losses on IAF.
HI do you have any information about Thursday night Indian missile strike?
Will they attempt it again?
Well we never know, there are some utterly stupid people leading India, if they havent learned their lesson from first time, they might be stupid enough to start a full scale war. Besides that Pakistan or India for that matter have no way of telling if the coming missile is nuclear or conventional, any side launching them will result in other side unleashing their nukes. Unfortunately MAD is a concept lost on Indian planners and they had become mad and lost all sanity.
I suspect that USA ordered them not to after Pakistan closed its air space and informed America that if India targets 7 sites in Pakistan and if Pakistan sees any dots on radars heading toward Pakistan, they will throw everything they have on 21 Indian sites
US might had some role to play here for sure, after all they do consider India a strategic ally but it would be wrong to assume they wish a nuclear war among India and Pakistan. They might have wished for few air skirmishes making India feel as superior power and then placate Pakistan, well that calculus fell flat on its face. But with America in disarray thanks to Trump, Americans are making strategic blunders at every level.
I am sure a lot of misguided people (even some Pakistanis) are wishing for it.
And all I have to say to them is **** them. Any one in Pakistan waiting for Gazwa Hind or in Indian dreaming of turning Pakistan into craters. Both of them should be thrown in Arabian sea.