India vs China war: current scenario and possible outcomes

[jhungary]

I have few questions regarding India vs China War

Indian usually say that they are in advantageous position in Doklam. As they are in high ground and then backed by mountain divisions.

1. If that the case then why China will use ground troops when they can use long range artillery and missiles which they have in numbers. After missiles attacks they can try to get air dominance on that area.
2. As its a mountain area, the missiles can target bridges and road passes as there will b fewer roads leading to this area. Uptil now there is no artillery deployed by India. China has already deployed HQ17 in tibet area and they ave alot more long range Sams in case india will use brahmos.
3. Indian Claim is because china air fields on high ground so planes can not use full load. But how about using air refueling in air and also they have alot more jets they can use numbers on its advantage.
4. India has to import of its spare parts so ofcurse it will dent their war capabilities incase war prolongs.
5. in an other scenarios if US will provide more weapons to India. then where Russia will b?
6. How many resources india can divert from Pakistan and Bangaldesh border.
7. What IAF how many squarden it can bring in case Pakistan just heat up LOC or just show some intent to distract India. As i believe it will b Air war and missiles skirmishes rather than troop bases initially as restricted by the area with high mountains passes.

Though its not accurate

I will appreciate constructive discussion over here keep in view past and updates of military and diplomatic approaches from both sides.

@jhungary @Oscar @hellfire @Feng Leng @wanglaokan @Horus @HAKIKAT @Hindustani78 @Abingdonboy @SarthakGanguly @ashok321 @TaimiKhan @TaiShang @TaimiKhan @MastanKhan whats your view guys.

Let me know incase you guys want to add additional scenarios and information.

@WebMaster plz keep trollers away from this thread.

Okay, well, I did not do any primary research on the case, actually, I don’t think I can point out where Doklam is in Bhutan, and I am a bit busy this week so I don’t think I will do the necessary research on the subject and just give you my thought, also I have check the post in this thread and I don’t think people are giving it a serious thought about the issue, so I am afraid my serious input would probably in vein, so instead I am going to take the role of a Platoon Commander and try to brief you on the military aspect to the operation.

I personally do not believe war (or large scale confrontation) would break out between India and China over issue in Bhutan, and I believe many people have already point out the war that China want to fight is on the other border, not thru Bhutan because it is an unfavourable country. So here are my thought as a soldier and below is my tactical appraisal to the situation.

Geographical Situation

Doklam is a plateau over a ridge which run thru the Tibet Plateau and Bhutan Ha valley, which it peak at the area, from the maps, we can see there are one Major Service Road (MSR) label S204 running approximately parallel to Chinese/Bhutan Border. The Sat photo show there are numerous mountain passes but no Auxiliary Service Road (ASR) linking into the area.



The mountain peak within Bhutan Border, which mean topologically, the Chinese side of the border is flatter and lower than Bhutan Side of the border, also, Doklam Plateau was also surrounded by Tri-Border Area between Bhutan-China-India and finally, The Area within Chinese Border was flanked by both Bhutan and India. Which essentially the area the Chinese held within their border formed a bulge toward the Bhutan and Indian Border.



Without studying the topology and weather pattern, I cannot ascertain how or what is the elevation or the weather information (tend to be fogging or tend to be sunny) so these information are not available.



Tactical Situation



First thing I need to mention is that Indian Troop has been in the area for 50 + days, during which we need to assume they are going to fortify the area, they could have been 40 + soldier, it could have been 200 + soldier, it does not matter, 50 + days in the area is more than enough to build fortification for a whole Battalion of 600 men, and that is the ceiling number Chinese is facing if we were to say the Chinese is going to attack first.



Since Indian already occupied the area, which put China into a tactical disadvantage, because it would be the Chinese troop whom need to dislodge the Indian from the position, which mean the Chinese have to take action, where the Indian troop were reacting to the Chinese offence. This is never good in this type of situation for the attacking army.





For an attacking battle, traditional wisdom suggest a 1 to 3 advantage favour the defender, which mean the attacker need to use 3 soldier to overcome 1 single defender. In case of mountain warfare, the number rose to 1 to 5 in favour of the defender. Put together with the location to which the Indian soldier are in a what we called “elevated defilade” which mean the soldier on top of the mountain can see what is going on below and direct artillery or airstrike toward the attack, the attacker cannot see the defender as they were going up hill and facing a reverse crest. Which mean both air and ground support for the attacker would have been impaired. This mean the support will either be unreliable or not available. Which in term will bump the ratio to 1 : 7, which mean to overcome 1 single defender, the attacker (The Chinese) would need to use 7 of its man to overcome 1 single Indian Soldier, that is if we assume both side have similar equipment, training and organisation (TO&E)



So if there are only 40 men defending the ridge, The Chinese would need to send a battalion (400 men) to scale up the mountain for an attack. Which would possibly have 50-65% casualty, you are looking at 200-250 KIA/WIA for PLA in order to attack Doklam. The more the defenders have in the region, the more effort/resource PLA need to devote, which mean for 50 days, if there are fighting fortification to support a reinforced battalion (600 men) of Indian Soldier, the PLA would require a Brigade size force to take Doklam.



This is a full tactical appraisal for the situation. Now, onto your question.

1. If that the case then why China will use ground troops when they can use long range artillery and missiles which they have in numbers. After missiles attacks they can try to get air dominance on that area.

Ground/Air Support in this situation is not effective, because you cannot see the target you want to shoot as the Indian are in a defensive defilade, which mean they can see the Chinese, but the Chinese cannot see the Indian. Indian would either hide behind reserve slope or build Fortification that is camouflaged to fool Chinese Air/Satellite Asset, hence the PLA cannot call accurate support fire on the area, which on the other hand, the Indian can.


Ground Troop is need if the PLA wanted to clear out the Indian Position.

2. As its a mountain area, the missiles can target bridges and road passes as there will b fewer roads leading to this area. Uptil now there is no artillery deployed by India. China has already deployed HQ17 in tibet area and they ave alot more long range Sams in case india will use brahmos.

There are not much service road linking rest of Bhutan and Doklam, which mean you don’t have many target to be begin with, don’t forget you will need to assume Indian have already set up a valid and fortified defensive position around their area, which mean it won’t be affecting much even if you bomb their rear infrastructure.


On the other hand, since PLA is attacking in this instant, they would need a larger force to overcome the Indian Garrison, which mean for PLA, service road and forward staging area are important to organize the attack, which present target for the Indian, they can drop artillery and missile on these target to disperse or disrupt Chinese effort on mounting an attack.


On Chinese side SAM is not really important for them because they have to attack, they want the Indian out, and SAM is a defensive weapon, also, since Doklam is within 40 km from Indian Border, Indian BM-21 and Light/Medium Howitzer could easily deployed anywhere within its own border and fire on Chinese troop staging on the west of Bhutan. Bhutan may also allow Indian to stage their howitzer inside Bhutan as well, which will dramatically close out the range. This is the main threat for PLA, not Indian Air Force. You may still got harassed by the IAF, but I do not think an Air War is possible, see next answer for detail.

3. Indian Claim is because china air fields on high ground so planes can not use full load. But how about using air refueling in air and also they have alot more jets they can use numbers on its advantage.

An Air War is not likely because of the mountain terrain, it would be a challenge for the USAF to hit hill side target in Afghanistan against Taliban, it will certainly a challenge for PLAAF to hit hill side target in Bhutan, also Taliban did not have functional advance SAM targeting the USAF, India does, so if an Air War over Doklam, we will see two things developed.


1.) China would have to declare war on Bhutan, because an air war over Doklam would most likely violate Bhutan Air Space (Even if we do not count the disputed area) Which lead to Mobilization of the whole Bhutan


2.) SAM site hidden inside the mountain range would be a problem for PLAAF, they are hard to track because they were hidden in the mountain, but they can be effective because aircraft need to fly over the mountain, and you cannot fly low to by-pass the radar either, because of the hilly terrain. Which mean in this end, Indian Troop with SAM protection within or outside the valley would have advantage over PLAAF. PLAAF can choose to fight thru the SAM, but it would mean a significant portion of PLAAF would be needed for this, and the same number have to be taken out from flying CAS or CAP.

4. India has to import of its spare parts so ofcurse it will dent their war capabilities incase war prolongs.

Prolonging the war is bad for both side, as I said before, China would be on the offence, and the Chinese would have to support a larger number of troop and equipment than India in order to stay in the fight.


Also, having production base does not mean you would have unlimited resource, which only mean you can in a reasonable manner re-supply your depleted force. But still, it take time to replace soldiers, aircraft, artillery piece, just because everything Chinese use is made in China does not give them an outright advantage over India. In this case, it would come down to how quickly China can replace its force before they can finish off the Indian, you need to remember, China is fighting an up-hill battle on this one, which mean it have to use at least 5 of its own soldier against 1, so for China to replace in this ratio, they would have to replace 5 of anything for the Indian to replace one of anything (Be that tanks, artillery, missile, and so on) I don’t know, maybe China can do it or not, but this type of situation usually lean with the defender, especially there are way to resupply and reinforce the Indian Troop already in Doklam.

5. in an other scenarios if US will provide more weapons to India. then where Russia will b?

Most of the Indian Offensive weapon is from Russia, I don’t think the Indian would need US help on this one, they may need Russian more.

6. How many resources india can divert from Pakistan and Bangaldesh border.

That’s depends on how big a force China can afford to support, in a protracted war, troop rotation is the key, if India can keep on rotating the troop in and out of Doklam, then they won’t need to draw much resource on defending Doklam, the key is how much pressure China can put on the Indian Troop, and how quickly they can do it. China in this case would have to take the initiative, and fact is, if the fighting drag on, it’s going to damage China more than India. Again, the ratio of men and equipment you need to sustain the operation is in favor of India, because they are defending a fortified hill side position with no meaningful mean to access, which also limited the approach.

7. What IAF how many squarden it can bring in case Pakistan just heat up LOC or just show some intent to distract India. As i believe it will b Air war and missiles skirmishes rather than troop bases initially as restricted by the area with high mountains passes.

Not sure, but I don’t think the war is going to spill over toward Pakistan and Bangladesh.

 

[Hellfire]

1. If that the case then why China will use ground troops when they can use long range artillery and missiles which they have in numbers. After missiles attacks they can try to get air dominance on that area.

Firstly, thanks for the tag.

Secondly, apart from PDF, there shall be no 'war'. I do not foresee even a 'skirmish' or even any kind of engagement in the region for the simple reason - China can not afford to go down that path and leave it's perfectly working strategy of manoeuvring and 'creeping gains' with zero to minimal costs. Only foolishness will push them on that path and that - 'fools', they are not.

So, in the rarest of possibility, they will contain it to the geographical area in order to ensure that it remains localised and does not escalate, thereby maximum limitation of artillery shelling and skirmish by troops. Anything else, will be escalatory and step up the response along escalation ladder.

2. As its a mountain area, the missiles can target bridges and road passes as there will b fewer roads leading to this area.

There is no road leading upto the area, only fair weather tracks on either side. Also, Chinese are claiming land lying behind the watershed towards South, in contravention of even the treaty signed in 1890. So it is a paradox. Correct trijunction as per water flow, the principle of the treaty, is at Batangla, north of Indian post Doka-La and north of Mount Gyamochen or Gyamochi on the ridge(as per the treaty)

Uptil now there is no artillery deployed by India.

If the troops are permanently stationed on Indian side, you can bet that artillery is also positioned. When India said it is not deployed, it referred to the Artillery Brigade deployment of the concerned Division as also the Corps Artillery elements.

China has already deployed HQ17 in tibet area and they ave alot more long range Sams in case india will use brahmos.

Irrelevant. Mere posturing.

3. Indian Claim is because china air fields on high ground so planes can not use full load. But how about using air refueling in air and also they have alot more jets they can use numbers on its advantage.

Airborne refuelling will have to be done nearer to the border, thereby making the refuellers susceptible. While it is true that they have greater numbers on their side, and any day of the month, greater numbers can make life tough for howsoever superior avionics maybe sported by other side if any, yet, IAF will be able to hold itself in a defensive mode, which is the posturing India has gone in for, a defensive approach, even in it's diplomatic posturing

4. India has to import of its spare parts so ofcurse it will dent their war capabilities incase war prolongs.

How long do you expect the war to last? It will not make a difference in anything below 14 days, and no one will allow anything to go beyond 3-5 days (outside limit).

5. in an other scenarios if US will provide more weapons to India. then where Russia will b?

Russia will provide too. You have to understand that Chinese actions have been in contravention to the treaties themselves. The move has been against Bhutan, which it itself admitted telling India to stay out as Bhutan is an independent country and it is between them. How does this position China as? As an aggressor against a tiny nation!

Not exactly a sparkling example of a responsible power. Add to it the 2012 Agreement it signed, it has precisely reneged on it. This puts it on a diplomatic back foot.

Now with respect to Russia, Chinese have claims to territory to North of River Amur and large tracts of Siberia East of Chita and of course, who can forget the Premorsky Krai where the city of Vladivostok is located (or Hâishénwâi as Chinese call it).

I do not know of you, but majority of China's neighbours do study the Chinese history and it's philosophy. The central goal of China is the 'peaceful reunification of China/Middle Kingdom'. If you look at the Chinese history, their goals have been consistent, irrespective of who was in power after the Qing. Be the nationalist or the Communist. Even the Cultural Revolution and the upheavals have not affected the core principles of Chinese foreign and domestic policy - that of an unified China or One China.

This, of course, runs in contravention to the interests of the Russians, who acquired the said territories in a series of Treaties - Treaty of Aigun(1859) giving Russians control of territory North of Amur and shifting of Sino-Russian border to Amur thereby allowing Russia to establish Vladivostok on previously Chinese territory and amending the reverses it suffered when it lost to the Chinese and signed the Treaty of Nerchinsk (1689) wherein the Russian attempts at capturing the land historically claimed by Chinese to North of Amur failed.

As China rises, and a weakened Russia struggles on multiple fronts, it is but obvious that they shall need a hedge against the Chinese.

I hope you are able to appreciate what I am saying here and do recall that in politics there are no permanent friends, only permanent interests and Russian interests remain in having a hedge in form of India to counter China, same as China has interest in Pakistan being the same. Think it over, most of the troll here will see my flag and miss what point I am making here.

6. How many resources india can divert from Pakistan and Bangaldesh border.

From Pakistan, nothing required to move. And nothing is there on Bangladesh border. So your query here is of irrelevance. Don't fret over this.

7. What IAF how many squarden it can bring in case Pakistan just heat up LOC or just show some intent to distract India.

As per my reading and speculation (and I am qualified at it), Pakistan, at max, will increase activities on LC. They can be marked by cross LC raids/capture of posts, meant to increase pressure on Indian forces along LC. But at no point will Pakistan violate IB even in case of a Chinese attack. Reason is very simple - that will invite US and others to come in full force for India's help (material and logistics).

Even in case of a showdown with China, material and logistics help has been assured and will be coming, from Israel, Russia and US/NATO. Most here will laugh at this one, but I again draw your attention to the misstep that China did by itself projecting this as a problem between Bhutan and itself, this has secured Indian position as a defender of rights of weaker nations/allies and a net security provider, which it was always aiming to achieve in SCS and has been able to achieve to a certain extent.

This will be the biggest determinant for the help to 'pour' in. Apart from this, recall Israel has been a traditional ally for past few decades now in terms of support, which has only enhanced in recent years.

As i believe it will b Air war and missiles skirmishes rather than troop bases initially as restricted by the area with high mountains passes.

Incorrect.
Just my appreciation here.

India and China have both its cons and ads.

India is not good in logistics but it has advantage in distance from the border.

And how precisely are logistics determined in mountains if not for this important and most basic of facts? Let's leave the bullshit aside and take the bull by the proverbial horns.

Are you aware that the Indian troops defending the passes in 1962 were bypassed by Chinese troops coming over tracks and through jungles? Nobody used the roads. So how is this even a pertinent point? It is all gibberish in mountain war, as if you have adequate stocks of your equipment and relief, you can hold a position for any number of days. And seeing the time frame of this stand off, what do you think has been done?

Preparation of war , howsoever remote. It is what is supposed to be done. Do not take 1962 war as a template. That was fought by an army told not to expect Chinese attack and outnumbered heavily while Indian Army maintained troop levels due to both political and diplomatic directives telling of no likelihood of war. And Chinese took action because of the Cuban missile crisis creating a situation wherein USSR wanted to hedge itself against US. Otherwise, it would have been a mere stand off and end of matter, and possible settlement of boundary issue.

Chinese are outnumbered and out gunned in Dhoklam, they have a very little chance of victory there. Any Chinese offensive will be in cor-ordination with Pakistan along Ladakh where the Chinese have the advantage. IA meanwhile will try military offensives in Chambi Valley and Tibet through Sikkim. If India manages to hold their ground in Ladakh and push the Chinese back in Chambi Valley, it will most likely be a Victory.

That will make a good novel.

China has up the stakes too high for Doklam now if they back-out they will lost strategically as well as diplomatically many countries in SEA will b on their throat.

They made a mistake, that I have already said earlier. They will wait out till winters set in and then quietly, a 'mutual withdrawal' will take place - thereby ensuring a face saving exit for all concerned.

how about missiles attack on logistics of IA before any ground force attack at doklam. how it will be advantageous for IA.

How quickly would a response come? Just guess

India scored the first goal when it surprisingly landed boots in Doklam.

Indian post at Doka-La is permanently manned. They intervened immediately. Hence, they got stuck.

Then China scored an own goal when it started empty aggressive war rhetoric in a knee jerk reaction.

They tried an Indian media ... only Pakistan media can match Indian media on the absurdity level

If China retrogrades, smaller countries might lose confidence in China, and their military export volume might shrink.

Won't happen.

Unlike a very strong narrative being pushed by my fellow citizens, Chinese have a product for every kind of price. While west does not compromise in quality, China has focussed on productions to meet the costs of every market. They can match, and outstrip the quality of West at times, and give you the product, at the cost they want (better than west but expensive nonetheless). Or you can say that you will pay on this X amount, and they will give you a product, but then you better not expect quality of the top end.

I admire them, I have said it a number of times, for their ingenuity and of course, their solitary aim of "China"!

@saiyan0321 I thought you can add here ...

 

[Realtalk108]

Good post. But a few things.

How long do you expect the war to last? It will not make a difference in anything below 14 days, and no one will allow anything to go beyond 3-5 days (outside limit).

What gave you that idea? 3-5 days are trivial. I am expecting few weeks at least.

Now with respect to Russia, Chinese have claims to territory to North of River Amur and large tracts of Siberia East of Chita and of course, who can forget the Premorsky Krai where the city of Vladivostok is located (or Hâishénwâi as Chinese call it).

What? China has long ceded this area. The dispute between China and Russia was about the exact alignment of the line - south bank or thalweg of the Amur and Ussuri rivers. A minor dispute much like Dokalam. After a brief battle in 1969 Russia eventually accepted China's position and in 2005 (I think) they finalized it. Russia-China border is settled with a capital S.

 

[Hrk19]

Okay, well, I did not do any primary research on the case, actually, I don’t think I can point out where Doklam is in Bhutan, and I am a bit busy this week so I don’t think I will do the necessary research on the subject and just give you my thought, also I have check the post in this thread and I don’t think people are giving it a serious thought about the issue, so I am afraid my serious input would probably in vein, so instead I am going to take the role of a Platoon Commander and try to brief you on the military aspect to the operation.

I personally do not believe war (or large scale confrontation) would break out between India and China over issue in Bhutan, and I believe many people have already point out the war that China want to fight is on the other border, not thru Bhutan because it is an unfavourable country. So here are my thought as a soldier and below is my tactical appraisal to the situation.

Geographical Situation

View attachment 418093

View attachment 418097

Doklam is a plateau over a ridge which run thru the Tibet Plateau and Bhutan Ha valley, which it peak at the area, from the maps, we can see there are one Major Service Road (MSR) label S204 running approximately parallel to Chinese/Bhutan Border. The Sat photo show there are numerous mountain passes but no Auxiliary Service Road (ASR) linking into the area.



The mountain peak within Bhutan Border, which mean topologically, the Chinese side of the border is flatter and lower than Bhutan Side of the border, also, Doklam Plateau was also surrounded by Tri-Border Area between Bhutan-China-India and finally, The Area within Chinese Border was flanked by both Bhutan and India. Which essentially the area the Chinese held within their border formed a bulge toward the Bhutan and Indian Border.



Without studying the topology and weather pattern, I cannot ascertain how or what is the elevation or the weather information (tend to be fogging or tend to be sunny) so these information are not available.



Tactical Situation



First thing I need to mention is that Indian Troop has been in the area for 50 + days, during which we need to assume they are going to fortify the area, they could have been 40 + soldier, it could have been 200 + soldier, it does not matter, 50 + days in the area is more than enough to build fortification for a whole Battalion of 600 men, and that is the ceiling number Chinese is facing if we were to say the Chinese is going to attack first.



Since Indian already occupied the area, which put China into a tactical disadvantage, because it would be the Chinese troop whom need to dislodge the Indian from the position, which mean the Chinese have to take action, where the Indian troop were reacting to the Chinese offence. This is never good in this type of situation for the attacking army.





For an attacking battle, traditional wisdom suggest a 1 to 3 advantage favour the defender, which mean the attacker need to use 3 soldier to overcome 1 single defender. In case of mountain warfare, the number rose to 1 to 5 in favour of the defender. Put together with the location to which the Indian soldier are in a what we called “elevated defilade” which mean the soldier on top of the mountain can see what is going on below and direct artillery or airstrike toward the attack, the attacker cannot see the defender as they were going up hill and facing a reverse crest. Which mean both air and ground support for the attacker would have been impaired. This mean the support will either be unreliable or not available. Which in term will bump the ratio to 1 : 7, which mean to overcome 1 single defender, the attacker (The Chinese) would need to use 7 of its man to overcome 1 single Indian Soldier, that is if we assume both side have similar equipment, training and organisation (TO&E)



So if there are only 40 men defending the ridge, The Chinese would need to send a battalion (400 men) to scale up the mountain for an attack. Which would possibly have 50-65% casualty, you are looking at 200-250 KIA/WIA for PLA in order to attack Doklam. The more the defenders have in the region, the more effort/resource PLA need to devote, which mean for 50 days, if there are fighting fortification to support a reinforced battalion (600 men) of Indian Soldier, the PLA would require a Brigade size force to take Doklam.



This is a full tactical appraisal for the situation. Now, onto your question.






Ground/Air Support in this situation is not effective, because you cannot see the target you want to shoot as the Indian are in a defensive defilade, which mean they can see the Chinese, but the Chinese cannot see the Indian. Indian would either hide behind reserve slope or build Fortification that is camouflaged to fool Chinese Air/Satellite Asset, hence the PLA cannot call accurate support fire on the area, which on the other hand, the Indian can.


Ground Troop is need if the PLA wanted to clear out the Indian Position.





There are not much service road linking rest of Bhutan and Doklam, which mean you don’t have many target to be begin with, don’t forget you will need to assume Indian have already set up a valid and fortified defensive position around their area, which mean it won’t be affecting much even if you bomb their rear infrastructure.


On the other hand, since PLA is attacking in this instant, they would need a larger force to overcome the Indian Garrison, which mean for PLA, service road and forward staging area are important to organize the attack, which present target for the Indian, they can drop artillery and missile on these target to disperse or disrupt Chinese effort on mounting an attack.


On Chinese side SAM is not really important for them because they have to attack, they want the Indian out, and SAM is a defensive weapon, also, since Doklam is within 40 km from Indian Border, Indian BM-21 and Light/Medium Howitzer could easily deployed anywhere within its own border and fire on Chinese troop staging on the west of Bhutan. Bhutan may also allow Indian to stage their howitzer inside Bhutan as well, which will dramatically close out the range. This is the main threat for PLA, not Indian Air Force. You may still got harassed by the IAF, but I do not think an Air War is possible, see next answer for detail.






An Air War is not likely because of the mountain terrain, it would be a challenge for the USAF to hit hill side target in Afghanistan against Taliban, it will certainly a challenge for PLAAF to hit hill side target in Bhutan, also Taliban did not have functional advance SAM targeting the USAF, India does, so if an Air War over Doklam, we will see two things developed.


1.) China would have to declare war on Bhutan, because an air war over Doklam would most likely violate Bhutan Air Space (Even if we do not count the disputed area) Which lead to Mobilization of the whole Bhutan


2.) SAM site hidden inside the mountain range would be a problem for PLAAF, they are hard to track because they were hidden in the mountain, but they can be effective because aircraft need to fly over the mountain, and you cannot fly low to by-pass the radar either, because of the hilly terrain. Which mean in this end, Indian Troop with SAM protection within or outside the valley would have advantage over PLAAF. PLAAF can choose to fight thru the SAM, but it would mean a significant portion of PLAAF would be needed for this, and the same number have to be taken out from flying CAS or CAP.






Prolonging the war is bad for both side, as I said before, China would be on the offence, and the Chinese would have to support a larger number of troop and equipment than India in order to stay in the fight.


Also, having production base does not mean you would have unlimited resource, which only mean you can in a reasonable manner re-supply your depleted force. But still, it take time to replace soldiers, aircraft, artillery piece, just because everything Chinese use is made in China does not give them an outright advantage over India. In this case, it would come down to how quickly China can replace its force before they can finish off the Indian, you need to remember, China is fighting an up-hill battle on this one, which mean it have to use at least 5 of its own soldier against 1, so for China to replace in this ratio, they would have to replace 5 of anything for the Indian to replace one of anything (Be that tanks, artillery, missile, and so on) I don’t know, maybe China can do it or not, but this type of situation usually lean with the defender, especially there are way to resupply and reinforce the Indian Troop already in Doklam.





Most of the Indian Offensive weapon is from Russia, I don’t think the Indian would need US help on this one, they may need Russian more.






That’s depends on how big a force China can afford to support, in a protracted war, troop rotation is the key, if India can keep on rotating the troop in and out of Doklam, then they won’t need to draw much resource on defending Doklam, the key is how much pressure China can put on the Indian Troop, and how quickly they can do it. China in this case would have to take the initiative, and fact is, if the fighting drag on, it’s going to damage China more than India. Again, the ratio of men and equipment you need to sustain the operation is in favor of India, because they are defending a fortified hill side position with no meaningful mean to access, which also limited the approach.






Not sure, but I don’t think the war is going to spill over toward Pakistan and Bangladesh.

if thats the case,then how about attacking sikkim and kashmir as there are 700k troops alone in kashmir
that would make the indians divert the soldiers to those fronts and china could just keep some forces in doklam to prevent indians from going further while china goes ahead in sikkim and kashmir
besides,according to the indians they cant last war for more than 15 days.
also,doing so would most likely shatter the indian's morale(they are known to run away when they see they are not winning and afraid of dying)

 

[saiyan0321]

@saiyan0321 I thought you can add here

Thank you for the tag.

I don't think I can anymore. Your post detailed and very informative is an end to the thread.

Quite frankly I like this thing about the Chinese. Its quite admirable. Their one China and united China policy. They don't very easily surrender territorial disputes and even if they do, they always come back for it. You don't see this in many nations. If west wasn't supporting Taiwan, China would have taken it a long time ago. They are very sensitive about one China policy. You don't need to see any further than the trump phone call to Taiwan.

As for the thread. Your post is the end. You have highlighted in detail about advantages of mountain warfare, differences between this and 1962, dokalam standoff and the most likely scenario and how war scenarios ( highly unlikely) may play out as well, pakistan ( again highly unlikely, very unlikely, super unlikely) if it involves and even how export capabilities of China decreasing are also not happening.

There is nothing to add to this.

Although the post deserves a couple of positive ratings. Hey @MilSpec @AUSTERLITZ .

Keep me tagged on such posts.

 

[Suriya]

That is the ONLY reason PRC has not yet invaded India and Bhutan yet.

This is the reason . But in a different way .

If China resort to military means achieve its goal with india , US will have very little hesitation to resort to military means to straighten out North Korea .

India china war => US NK war => US china conflict over islands SCS and japan
Even russia will be inspired to use force in Ukraine .

China India war will start a chain reactions . War begets war . It has happened in past in WW2 , it could certainly happen in future .

 

[xunzi]

LOL The hindu and their delusional scenario. Trust me, nobody will fight a war for you without any benefit. You think the US will put American live at risk for protecting Indian? LOL And no, the Vietnam, Philippines will never attack us. Historically they never does for the simple fact that we can retaliate pretty badly. Only country that attacked us was Japan. Even that, before attacking Korea, they wanted us to team up with them to split. We said no. We were weak at the time of attacking too. Other time, we simply sent in troop to kick *** like the Imjin War.

As for India, they thought they could test us and got an *** whooping in '62. Same with the US thinking they can steamroll NK but we said nah uh. Same with the Vietnam War. They never across the line we set up. So depending on the red line we drawn on Doklam, we may or may not enter a war. I suspect we are looking for a mistake the Indian made that put the international community to support us diplomatically and in that case, we can have the greenlight to give India an *** whooping again. Like you said, we want to give off as a peaceful country. But if other put a gun into our head, I'm sure the rest of the world understand we have no choice but to fight.

 

[StraightShooter]

I don't know if there's going to a war, hopefully not, but deployment is still ongoing... At the end, China & Bhutan will settle our border issue & have normal diplomatic relations. That road will be build, eventually connecting Bhutan.

I don't know if there is going to be a war or not, hopefully yes as the Indian deployment is complete... In the end, Tibet would gain its independence and Tibetans can visit India and vice-versa. India would help Tibetans settle its border dispute with China.

 

[xunzi]

I don't what give Indian so much confident when historically they never fought anyone stronger than them. In fact, they lost pretty much to all. Even the Great Britain was granting them independent as a result of goodwill and threat from the US, rather than gaining it themselves through sheer force. LOL

 

[Pangu]

I don't know if there is going to be a war or not, hopefully yes as the Indian deployment is complete... In the end, Tibet would gain its independence and Tibetans can visit India and vice-versa. India would help Tibetans settle its border dispute with China.

Haha, very funny.

 

[oprih]

1 billion hindus will be deported to mars, rest of the hindus will be made slaves by China. China will then clean the once filthy indian lands and turn it into China's agricultural province. Thanks to China, the existence of the shitty and smelly artificial country india will come to an end.

 

[Han Patriot]

I don't know if there is going to be a war or not, hopefully yes as the Indian deployment is complete... In the end, Tibet would gain its independence and Tibetans can visit India and vice-versa. India would help Tibetans settle its border dispute with China.

Realistically speaking, NE would be easier to split than Tibet, I mean you roll into Tibet and then what? How are you going to supply that offensive? You are in a defensive position, we are in the attacking position and we get to choose when and how to attack. A no no in strategic warfare, never let your enemy choose the when and how to attack you. You are basically sitting ducks there. All Indians here are betting on a one to one gunfight, I can assure you, it's going to be high tech precision strikes, drones will get involved, PLA will attack at night using infrared drones, go watch Wolf Warrior 2, the concept is already there.

 

[StraightShooter]

Realistically speaking, NE would be easier to split than Tibet, I mean you roll into Tibet and then what? How are you going to supply that offensive? You are in a defensive position, we are in the attacking position and we get to choose when and how to attack. A no no in strategic warfare, never let your enemy choose the when and how to attack you. You are basically sitting ducks there. All Indians here are betting on a one to one gunfight, I can assure you, it's going to be high tech precision strikes, drones will get involved, PLA will attack at night using infrared drones, go watch Wolf Warrior 2, the concept is already there.

Tibet is closer to India than Chinese East coast.

Chinese logistics would be longer that Indian ones.

 

[AndrewJin]

1 billion hindus will be deported to mars, rest of the hindus will be made slaves by China. China will then clean the once filthy indian lands and turn it into China's agricultural province. Thanks to China, the existence of the shitty and smelly artificial country india will come to an end.

Average 82 ！

 

[Ultima Thule]

Tibet is closer to India than Chinese East coast.

Chinese logistics would be longer that Indian ones.

Himalayas, How do you provide logistics in Tibet?, by land by air Chinese SAMs is already there