Assumption 1: So China would never overtake US, as China would slow down to 1-2% when it closes on to US? But you obviously dont think so in case of China.
Maybe the above doesn't apply to China but only India.
You are comparing apples to oranges mate. China is not the USA and India is not China so your simple analogies do not apply. The USA, like much of the Western World, with perhaps Australia and Germany aside, is experiencing years, some decades, of near zero economic growth. Their finite debt-based economic model has reached its limit. Inflated Western currencies only hold their value because creditor nations such as China, Japan and the Arab oil nations continue to trade in them to buy commodities such as oil, and buy US debt in the form of Dollar-denominated treasury bonds. However, China knows the West's currency charade is reaching the end of its usefulness and they are moving away from exports-led economic growth, and in turn moving away from the Dollar in favour of trading with its own currency between major regional trading partners, including Russsia and Japan. China is intending to make their currency the new reserve currency or at least part of a basket of reserve currencies. This is why China is forecasted to overtake the US, because it is a country which deals in trade of real goods and services, unlike the US, who's main product for decades ha been Dollar debt forced upon the rest of the World. Even China with a slowing growth rate will overtake a US, who's economy is at a standstill. This is not my 'asssumption', even the IMF predicts by 2016-2017, China's GDP will overtake that of the US in Dollar terms. In real terms such as purchasing power parity and manufacturing output, China is already ahead of the US.
Assumption 2: Bro nothing is inevitable. even China taking over US is not inevitable.
In normal circumstances India would overtake.
Read above.
What is this 'normal circumtances' you talk of? Most favorable conditions for India versus worst-case for China? Please elaborate.
Assumption 3 (the biggest and most unsound)
When China can grow much faster then US even when China is inching much closer to US. Why cant India grow much faster then China when India and go ahead when gap b/w India and China is more then China and US.
I never assumed, just stated what is the natural order of things in world. The biggest slows down always. It is you who assume that against all natural order of things China would continue to grow faster then all other countries even when it is the biggest economy. Easily the most unsound of your assumption.
yes it will grow like US is growing. I agree and I never said China will not grow. But China will become slow.
Like I have repeated many times before, yes growth rates will decrease as economies enlarge but that does not mean the economy does not continue to grow. It's just that every percentage growth rate will signify a much larger volume of economic output. India will also be subject to these economic laws should their economy continue to grow.
Your assumption in turn is predicated on China inevitably hitting an economic ceiling that slows or halts its growth to a standstill and India magically resolving all its structural issues and gallops its way past China. This is not a 'natural order' or fundamental law you so seem to think it is, more like wishful thinking on your part. I'm not arrogant enough to say India can't achieve this but they have a lot of work to do and a lot of problems to solve to just catch up to China, let alone overtake her. Of course, China faces new chalenges too, in turning her economy from an export-led one to a more balanced and domestic consumer-driven one. China's obvious drive in education and technology/innovation is showing to me their determination to move up the quality and technological ladder. China is showing their adaptability and willingness to punch through this so called economic ceiling that naysayers, such as yourself, seem to think is in China's fated path. On the other hand, India is not convincing me they can improve their structural problems anytime soon.
Yes, all economies reach a saturation point where economic output of that country's human and natural resources is maximised or optimised. However, your assumption is that China will have reached hers by 2030 or before, and India's economic ceiling is equal or greater than that of China's. Nothing about India's current infrastructure and Governmental proficiency indicates to me that this would be true. Yes, call them assumptions but they are based on the facts at hand, at this moment.
Assumption 4: I never said anything about superpower. Even if China overtake US in economy, US would still be the biggest superpower for many more decades.
You keep saying under 'normal circumstances' that India should overtake China. Given that China is expected to have the largest economy in the World, in as short as 5 years time, if India were to overtake such a country to become the largest economy, of course you are saying that India is going to be the next superpower. Superpowers come in both military and economic forms. And yes, I agree the US will still be the military superpower for decades to come.
Assumption 5: China don't have the stumbling blocks and only India has.
India has shown good growth despite its problems. Even US has its problems.
Read above.
I'm British and proud to be British. I respect the way the Chinese go about their business and find their economic and military development the most interesting area of today's international affairs. I'm just sick of having to wade through post after post of Indian trolls in every China-related article I read on here. I have no ill-will towards Indian people, but
some Indian trolls on here just don't care about talking about facts and just spew nonsense for the sake of it.
