India to outpace China by 2030: US intelligence report

[Bhai Zakir]

the report forgot the fact that China is surrounded by many poor countries with high population growth rate,therefore China can always have the option of opening her labor market to poor neighboring countries when there is a need.China has superb manufacturing facilities and road systems which are decades away for India to match,with the influx of cheap foreign workers,China still holds a huge advantage over India.besides,China dosen't have to pay for their retiringment and social medicare or something like that,that will save China a huge amount of money.moreover,young people will also grow old,if the report cares more about the future,why not say something about how India will support their huge aging population when the time comes.

At present, china is importing hundred thousands of labor from North Korea but not from its best friend pakistan

Is it because of them being Muslim or the chinese don't treat pakistan as their friend, just a proxy against India??????

 

[Bobby]

Nothing is impossible in this world....if 30 years back somebody would have said that China would give tough competition .....who would have believed that.

this is not a ordinary report....we need to understand at what fact and ground, report is saying that

 

[INDIC]

Comparing Real term GDP growth India and China has very low margin but I don't know what it exactly means.

 

[acid rain]

The India outpacing China myth has been around since 2002/2003. Each year, they predict, it is, either China would collapse or India would surpass China. According to all these western predictors, even the Economist, India was supposed to surpass China by 2008. Then after 2008, when nothing happened, the gap between China and India had even increased, the Western predictors had then forecasted India to surpass China by 2010, but again nothing happened, the gap has even increased in favour of China, and India is still lagging well behind China, while it is other nations like Brazil, Indonesia which are likely to surpass India. Commonsense analysis: how a country which is still 5 to 10 ranks below China could surpass it in just 15 years? India is 30 years behind China in terms of infrastructure, industrial capacity etc. So how could it surpass China in just 15 years. Moreover, if this would really happen, then, India would have already surpassed France, UK and even Germany by 2012. Now India was supposed to be the World number three economy in order to achieve this. Have these predictors ever visited Guangzhou, Shenzhen etc that is secondary Chinese cities and compared them to the top Indian cities? There is at least 30 to 50 years of difference between them. While Chinese secondary cities are ultra modern, Indian top cities are just stranded in under development or still in the phase of developing. See the infrastructure, organization, entertainment that exist in these Chinese cities which are even more important compared to London, Paris etc. In Shenzhen, for instance, which is much more modern than London, Manchester, Paris etc, the metro runway is higher compared to the top European cities, high speed train connects the major Chinese cities, a recent one has been inaugurated connecting Guangzhou and Beijing. The skyscrapers in Shenzhen and Shanghai are even more important than in Dubai. Before surpassing China, better for the Western predictoros to forecast when India would surpass, UK, France, Germany and Japan. Anyway let these predictors dream while China is now the second world economy, this is a fact and not prediction.

Complete BS, come up with actual figures for your 30, 40, 50 year rants about India China comparisons. You seem to be a person attracted towards shiny stuff without knowing its actual worth or value. Chinese govt invested billions into infrastructure to maintain their growth figures, that was a good thing at that time but a lot of those infrastructure lies unused- ever heard of China's ghost cities? these state investments boosted their GDP numbers big time but its gets them poor ROI, and wastes funds.

 

[seven7seven]

I've been reading these so called official 'intelligence' reports for decades, saying China will collapse or falter in its economic miracle. I think all these Western-originated reports are no more than domestically-targeted propaganda to make ourselves feel better. That a perceived system that is opposite to our democratic one, will inevitably fail because they do not follow our own values. The truth is, however, different to such reports, and China's governance is both more dynamic and competent than anyone in the West wants to believe. These reports are always based on false assumptions and a lack of understanding of how China works, as a nation and as a culture, namely with China being overwhelmingly homogenous and Han. We apply our liberal and multicultural outlook on China's system and come up with conclusions that are not applicable, but our arrogance and belief in our own exceptionalism always leads us to wrongly underestimate China's capability to adapt and overcome obstacles placed in front of her. Time and time again, China has proven so called Western 'China Experts' wrong yet they continue with the China imminent collapse narrative hoping that they'll eventually be proven right. Hyping up the capabilities of China's regional rivals seems to be a side-narrative in the West's unrelenting anti-China campaign. We, in the West, need to realise that our Government is using China as its latest scapegoat, to divert attention from their own incompetence and how they sold us all out to the Globalist Central Bank Cabal.

 

[Rajaraja Chola]

Not again. Western Nations are too busy predicting the SuperPower status of India. They must predict the state of their own economy first.
So many articles on India regarding the time frames is boring.
Btw 2030 seems too bit early.

 

[seven7seven]

They are talking about absolute growth increase, not surpass the size of economy. But I won't make this prediction until India can consistently grow faster than China for 3 straight years. There was a talk of India surpass China's economic rate of growth in 2012. But it never happened. So that has to happen first before making any other predictions.

Very true indeed. You have to also realise that in 2030, China's economy will be by far the largest in the World and will be much larger than it is today, so growth rates will inevitably fall because it's much harder to maintain high growth rates of a far larger economy. A 1% growth rate in 2030 will represent many more billions in GDP as compared to a 1% growth rate in China's present GDP.

 

[Kyusuibu Honbu]

I've been reading these so called official 'intelligence' reports for decades, saying China will collapse or falter in its economic miracle.

Can't you quote me some of these official 'intelligence' reports you"ve been reading for decades?

Last 2 years i"ve gone through CIA declassified Intelligence assessments and never across a single report suggesting or China will collapse or falter in its economic miracle.

For example here is one of them

 

[timetravel]

Very true indeed. You have to also realise that in 2030, China's economy will be by far the largest in the World and will be much larger than it is today, so growth rates will inevitably fall because it's much harder to maintain high growth rates of a far larger economy. A 1% growth rate in 2030 will represent many more billions in GDP as compared to a 1% growth rate in China's present GDP.

this everyone knows... but obviously the higher growth country would take over the lower growth country over time.

 

[seven7seven]

Can't you quote me some of these official 'intelligence' reports you"ve been reading for decades?

Last 2 years i"ve gone through CIA declassified Intelligence assessments and never across a single report suggesting or China will collapse or falter in its economic miracle.

For example here is one of them

I'm talking more broadly of Western media reports from a multitude of so called China experts. Just Google them, there are tons of them.

 

[Kyusuibu Honbu]

I'm talking more broadly of Western media reports from a multitude of so called China experts. Just Google them, there are tons of them.

I thought you were specifically addressing Western Intelligence assessments.

 

[seven7seven]

this everyone knows... but obviously the higher growth country would take over the lower growth country over time.

Also true, but you are also assuming that, in this case, India, will not encounter the same economic resistance that China faces, once its economy has grown to a certain size. From all I've seen, China has been better at negotiating economic road-bumps than India has so far. I'm not saying India won't also negoatiate such probalems but they have many problems, structurally, to overcome. The 2030 timeline for India to overtake China seems at best very premature. In addition, the prospect of India actually overtaking China's GDP is far from a certainty and I personally don't foresee it happening at the current trajectories both economies are moving at.

I thought you were specifically addressing Western Intelligence assessments.

There some out there from experts purporting to be Government officials but most Western intelligence reports on China are ones inflating the China military threat.

 

[timetravel]

Also true, but you are also assuming that, in this case, India, will not encounter the same economic resistance that China faces, once its economy has grown to a certain size. From all I've seen, China has been better at negotiating economic road-bumps than India has so far. I'm not saying India won't also negoatiate such probalems but they have many problems, structurally, to overcome. The 2030 timeline for India to overtake China seems at best very premature. In addition, the prospect of India actually overtaking China's GDP is far from a certainty and I personally don't foresee it happening at the current trajectories both economies are moving at.
.

and can I say you are assuming much more then me? I am just saying it is natural that the soon to be world biggest economy (China) will slow down which is pretty natural.. But for you to say that an Indian economy which is much smaller then China would face the issues of scale faced by world's biggest economy is what, if not an assumption!


but there is no denying that China will slow down.. and India will speed up or not will depend on how India uses its resources... but if India is good in resource utilization, then India would grow much faster but China wont as obviously you cannot grow fast beyond a certain limit..

(leaving aside all the assumptions, notably yours) India in normal circumstances should overtake China.. there is no need for you to be protective about it.. it is a cycle which is bound to happen... first US, then China and then India and then someone else.

No country can be at top forever... and it applies as much to China as it applies to US today.

but I agree with you that it may not happen in 2030...I wont predict the date with so much surity.. it could happen anytime from 2025 to 2045...

 

[seven7seven]

and can I say you are assuming much more then me? I am just saying it is natural that the soon to be world biggest economy (China) will slow down which is pretty natural.. But for you to say that an Indian economy which is much smaller then China would face the issues of scale faced by world's biggest economy is what, if not an assumption!


but there is no denying that China will slow down.. and India will speed up or not will depend on how India uses its resources... but if India is good in resource utilization, then India would grow much faster but China wont as obviously you cannot grow fast beyond a certain limit..

(leaving aside all the assumptions, notably yours) India in normal circumstances should overtake China.. there is no need for you to be protective about it.. it is a cycle which is bound to happen... first US, then China and then India and then someone else.

No country can be at top forever... and it applies as much to China as it applies to US today.

but I agree with you that it may not happen in 2030...I wont predict the date with so much surity.. it could happen anytime from 2025 to 2045...

May I ask exactly what you think I'm assuming? That India has structural problems? That Indian growth rate will also slow down once its economic size approaches China's size? Are you saying these are unreasonable assumptions?

While I agree nobody stays at the top forever and economies and World powers rise and fall, what immutable law says that India will inevitably grow and assume economic preeminence? You accuse me of making wild assumptions but this assumption that India will continue to increase in growth and China stagnates is equally without foundation. This view is also based on the false assumption that China is already approaching a developmental saturation point and they are unable to grow beyond this point. While I agree India has huge potential to grow but equally true is that China has also nowhere near reached its full potential but China, for me, is the country showing the greatest competence and flexibility to adapting to the current global economic turbulence. Like I said before, yes, China's growth rate will slow but that's due to its overall economic size expansion. This however does not mean China will not continue to grow, albeit at a less sharp growth rate.

If India believes that they will develop into the next superpower just because of their large demographic, then this is equally a false assumption. Many things are required to sustain economic growth of large nations such as India and China, and that includes flexible and effective governance, investment in improving public health and education, developing a strong domestic manufacturing and research base, building of comprehensive transport (railways, roads) and modern utilities that cover the entire country. There are more but these are just some of the structural problems India must overcome, and in this respect, China are decades ahead of India. This isn't a slight on India, but its just the current situation India finds itself in and India needs to develop at its own pace. However, making hopeful projections of catching China anytime soon is both self-deluding and self-defeating. India requires honest self-reflection and evaluation, and address basic issues before they can move forward and develop as a nation.

I'm not being protective of China, as I'm not Chinese, but I call silly views out for being silly. Indians need to stop living with their heads in the cloud and show greater self-honesty and pragmatism.

 

[faithfulguy]

Can't you quote me some of these official 'intelligence' reports you"ve been reading for decades?

Last 2 years i"ve gone through CIA declassified Intelligence assessments and never across a single report suggesting or China will collapse or falter in its economic miracle.

For example here is one of them

Did you get this from David Patreus's mistress?