India to grow at 7.9% this fiscal: Crisil

[Shamain]

I honestly never troll and specially in economics and current affairs discussions.

If you were not trolling then a sincere apology from me brother

 

[Skull and Bones]

Manufacturing and export should be the driving force, along with investment in agricultural technologies.

 

[Tridibans]

I honestly never troll and specially in economics and current affairs discussions.

OK so go thorugh the links and lets have an honest discussion.....

China has kind of peaked its economic progress. It will continue to grow but unlike 2000-2012, its rate will drastically come down.

India is where China was in 1997-8. For the next 15-20 years, If India can maintain 8-9% growth (it has all the ingredients for it), our demographic dividend (which is way better than China) will pay in the long run. India will easily be the 4-5th largest economy by 2025

 

[ashok mourya]

India can create any number it wanted, just like they recently did. But no one, even their economist, buy this new figure. But their trolls here had a field day talking about India has the world's fastest growing major economy by recalculation.

GDP growth rate in India to reach 8 pct by 2017: World Bank
The World Bank has predicted a GDP growth rate of 8 per cent for India by 2017 and said that a strong expansion in the country, coupled with favourable oilprices, would accelerate the economic growth in South Asia.

In India, GDP growth is expected to accelerate to 7.5 per cent in fiscal year 2015/16. It could reach 8 per cent in FY 2017/18, on the back of significant acceleration of investment growth to 12 per cent during FY 2016-FY 2018, the banksaid in its semi-annual report.

The country is attempting to shift from consumption to investment-led growth, at a time when China is undergoing the opposite transition, it said.

The bank’s twice-a-year South Asia Economic Focus report projected steady increase in regional growth from 7 per cent in 2015 to 7.6 per cent by 2017 on grounds of strong consumption and increasing investment.

Given India’s weight in regional Gross Domestic Product, the projections reflect to a large extent India’s expected growth acceleration, driven by business-oriented reforms and improved investor sentiment.

The decline in oil prices has been reflected in the domestic prices of oil products to different extents across the region. The pass-through exceeded 50 per cent formost oil products in Pakistan, but was nil in Bangladesh, it said.

Together with favorable food prices, cheaper oil has contributed to a rapid deceleration of inflation. South Asia went from having the highest inflation rateamong developing regions to having the lowest in barely one year.

In March 2013, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) of the region had increased by 7.3 per cent year-on-year compared to 1.4 per cent in March 2015, the report said.

“The biggest oil price dividend to be cashed in by South Asia is one yet to be earned, but it is not one that will automatically transit through government or consumer accounts,” said World Bank South Asia Chief Economist Martin Rama.

“Cheap oil gives the opportunity to rationalize energy prices, reducing the fiscal burden from subsidies and contributing to environmental sustainability,” he said.

The report noted India has already taken encouraging steps to decoupleinternational oil prices from fiscal deficits and to introduce carbon taxation to address the negative externalities from the use of fossil fuels.

The challenge will be to stay the course in the event of oil price hikes, something that may well happen in the medium- term.

“Savings from reduced subsidy bills could be used to address the crying needs of the region in terms of infrastructure, basic services and targeted support for the poor,” said World Bank Vice President for South Asia Annette Dixon.

 

[Dr. Sen]

USDA report sees India as the third largest economy by 2030 - Livemint

‘India will grow at 8-10% for next 15 yrs’ - The Times of India

 

[Shamain]

OK so go thorugh the links and lets have an honest discussion.....

China has kind of peaked its economic progress. It will continue to grow but unlike 2000-2012, its rate will drastically come down.

India is where China was in 1997-8. For the next 15-20 years, If India can maintain 8-9% growth (it has all the ingredients for it), our demographic dividend (which is way better than China) will pay in the long run. India will easily be the 4-5th largest economy by 2025

Your current wasted demographic dividend is 12 million due to unskilled labor.
And as of china ,if anything that could bring down its economy will be its popuation deceleration.
Secondly, one important factor that we overlook is corruption free govs. See demographic deividend policy works when you have proper regulations and policies not just in place but are implemented effectively. In that way the older population also adds to economy. India had a chance to play around with china's growth rate if india had enough skilled labor cuz china will lose 6million skilled workers in upcoming decade due to old age.
Howelse you think japan progressed. Do countries like india pakistan have such politicians....?????
I will try going though links and if i can discuss in detail i will post in thread again.

 

[The BrOkEn HeArT]

I'm Mumbaikar and business man too. I'm a share holder too. So I can tell a true picture of indian economy. I have a big circle of my business friends. We were desperate from last few years. Now we are happy people . Our business is growing fast. Mr. Modi has some miracle . All I can see now a positive energy in Mumbai. Trust me we are gonna touch double digit in our GDP growth in next 2 or 3 years.

 

[Dr. Sen]

Your current wasted demographic dividend is 12 million due to unskilled labor.
And as of china ,if anything that could bring down its economy will be its popuation deceleration.
Secondly, one important factor that we overlook is corruption free govs. See demographic deividend policy works when you have proper regulations and policies not just in place but are implemented effectively. In that way the older population also adds to economy. India had a chance to play around with china's growth rate if india had enough skilled labor cuz china will lose 6million skilled workers in upcoming decade due to old age.
Howelse you think japan progressed. Do countries like india pakistan have such politicians....?????
I will try going though links and if i can discuss in detail i will post in thread again.

You are not wrong. India does have a lower skilled labour number than China, but it still has a high growth rate around 7.5% I beleive and multiple multinational agencies citing 8% soon. That by itself is very good. And a better economy means more schools colleges etc and more skilled labours and a even higher growth rate.

India with its lower skilled labours can have such a impressive growth rate then it should be even better after a few years with more skilled labour.

 

[Shamain]

I'm Mumbaikar and business man too. I'm a share holder too. So I can tell a true picture of indian economy. I have a big circle of my business friends. We were desperate from last few years. Now we are happy people . Our business is growing fast. Mr. Modi has some miracle . All I can see now a positive energy in Mumbai. Trust me we are gonna touch double digit in our GDP growth in next 2 or 3 years.

Hahahhahahaha

 

[Dr. Sen]

I'm Mumbaikar and business man too. I'm a share holder too. So I can tell a true picture of indian economy. I have a big circle of my business friends. We were desperate from last few years. Now we are happy people . Our business is growing fast. Mr. Modi has some miracle . All I can see now a positive energy in Mumbai. Trust me we are gonna touch double digit in our GDP growth in next 2 or 3 years.

We, in this part of India are mostly professionals with hardly any knowledge of real current business and economic prospects. Its every encouraging to see your post. I am very happy that your business is growing and so is our economy!

 

[MarkovChain]

Your current wasted demographic dividend is 12 million due to unskilled labor.
And as of china ,if anything that could bring down its economy will be its popuation deceleration.
Secondly, one important factor that we overlook is corruption free govs. See demographic deividend policy works when you have proper regulations and policies not just in place but are implemented effectively. In that way the older population also adds to economy. India had a chance to play around with china's growth rate if india had enough skilled labor cuz china will lose 6million skilled workers in upcoming decade due to old age.
Howelse you think japan progressed. Do countries like india pakistan have such politicians....?????
I will try going though links and if i can discuss in detail i will post in thread again.

China did not randomly end up with skilled labour all of a sudden. They started with the capitalistic mindset around 1976 and we started a decade and a half later when we finally got rid of that stupid Nehruvian socialism). It takes about 12-13 years from policy change to reap dividends - which China did from 1990 and which India is doing from around 2000 or so. Granted, the Chinese have done remarkably well in growing, thanks to their ability to build infrastructure with ease unlike in India - but the difference between India and China is about 15 years (the exact difference in time when reform started in China and India) - and China has gone through the exact phase India is in right now.

Pakistan on the other hand

 

[Tridibans]

Your current wasted demographic dividend is 12 million due to unskilled labor.
And as of china ,if anything that could bring down its economy will be its popuation deceleration.
Secondly, one important factor that we overlook is corruption free govs. See demographic deividend policy works when you have proper regulations and policies not just in place but are implemented effectively. In that way the older population also adds to economy. India had a chance to play around with china's growth rate if india had enough skilled labor cuz china will lose 6million skilled workers in upcoming decade due to old age.
Howelse you think japan progressed. Do countries like india pakistan have such politicians....?????
I will try going though links and if i can discuss in detail i will post in thread again.

I don't know why you are going on and on about unskilled labour? India is producing around 10 million engineers/ doctors/ professional every decade (higher than whole Europe combined). Worst case scenario, India was growing at 4.5-5% (under UPA in 2013-14). Even in doom and gloom, India will become a 5 trillion $ economy by 2030 (now we are 2.2 trillion $ economy.

We are concerned about maximise the demographic dividend. Hence Modi's pitch for Make in India, to retain this workforce and not result in brain drain. We have a service industry base but need to invest into a manufacturing base.

Already companies like Toyota, Honda, Airbus have R&D na dsmall scale assembly plants. We are looking to accelerate this sector.

 

[Shamain]

Omg!!!!!!!!! Ok @Tridibans. You are righttt!!!!! omg!!!!!

 

[Dr. Sen]

Already companies like Toyota, Honda, Airbus have R&D na dsmall scale assembly plants. We are looking to accelerate this sector.

Already Airbus will increase its investment here by multiple times. Already all Airbus planes have parts made in India. They are looking to make end of the line production in India.

 

[Matrixx]

And did you believe that. Do you have enough skilled labor to attain growth.?
Do know chinas skilled,semi skilled labor is 300million.

Are you much smarter than CRISIL or Morgon Stanley?

How you can not believe that without knowing the actual number of skilled labor in India.