India to grow at 7.8 per cent in 2015-16; surpass China: ADB

[NKVD]

New Delhi: The Asian Development Bank (ADB) today projected India's growth rate to surpass China and improve to 7.8 per cent in next fiscal and further to 8.2 per cent in 2016-17. India's growth and investor confidence will improve on the back of government's structural reform agenda and improved external demand, the Asian Development Outlook (ADO), an annual publication of the ADB, said.

It forecast that India's growth will improve from 7.4 per cent in current fiscal to 7.8 per cent in 2015-16 and further to 8.2 per cent in 2016-17.

As regards China, the ADB projected the economic growth to decelerate from 7.4 per cent in current fiscal to 7.2 per cent next fiscal and 7 per cent in 2016-17.

"India is expected to grow faster than the People's Republic of China in the next few years. The government's pro-investment attitude, improvements in the fiscal and current account deficits, and some forward movement on resolving structural bottlenecks have helped improve the business climate and make India attractive again to both domestic and foreign investors," ADB Chief Economist Shang-Jin Wei said.

He, however, cautioned that although the economic prospects look promising, "there are still many challenges".

ADB's estimates is, however, lower than the 8-8.5 per cent growth estimates of Indian government for the 2015-16 fiscal beginning April. It is better than 7.5 per cent projection by the International Monetary Fund (IMF).

The ADB said that strong growth outlook is contingent on further acceleration in investment activity. "The prospects look promising."

It said the measures undertaken by the government including accelerating environment clearances for infrastructure projects, easing the process of land acquisition for infrastructure and industrial corridors, allowing auction of coal mines to the private sector, and easing the compliance burden of labour laws on small and medium-sized industries would help boost growth.

The ADB said that India's most pressing policy challenges is to promote cities as engines of economic growth and jobs.

"To fully reap the benefits of urbanisation, the government must make further efforts to coordinate urban and industry planning to attract industries into cities, and provide the necessary supporting infrastructure," it said.

Praising the India's 'Make In India' campaign to boost domestic manufacturing, Shang said, "Indian government's programme is even more striking (in comparison to China)".

As regards external sector, he said that the Indian government and the RBI have been trying to build up reserves and frame policies to monitor risk.

"India is in stronger position today than what it used to be. Government is making effort to increase FDI to deal with financial instability," Shang said.

As regards the new monetary policy framework, under which the RBI's primary objective would be to maintain price stability while remaining mindful of growth, the ADB said it would help in restraining inflation and improve the coordination between monetary and fiscal policy.


India to grow at 7.8 per cent in 2015-16; surpass China: ADB - The Economic Times

 

[C130]

to be honest that's not all that impressive considering China economy is larger than India's so it's all relative to current GDP.

 

[Kinetic]

The increase is small compared to China. We missed a decade (2004-2014 under mms) in the race against China.

Now what we need 9% growth for atleast 20 years to become a global mega economy.

 

[East or West India Best]

The increase is small compared to China. We missed a decade (2004-2014 under mms) in the race against China.

Now what we need 9% growth for atleast 20 years to become a global mega economy.

Why not global-mega-ultra-supreme-param-power?

 

[WAR-rior]

to be honest that's not all that impressive considering China economy is larger than India's so it's all relative to current GDP.

So who is asking India to overtake China in 2,3 years.

But if we want to overtake China, we will have to atleast start somewhere growing more than China.

Or u mean, since we cant overtake China in couple of years, hence we shudnt grow more than anyone?

 

[truthseeker2010]

Why not global-mega-ultra-supreme-param-power?

add all the superlatives from dictionary and make a new phrase, that only india will achieve

The increase is small compared to China. We missed a decade (2004-2014 under mms) in the race against China.

Now what we need 9% growth for atleast 20 years to become a global mega economy.

missed? indian shining, did it failed? india was never in the race with china, india wants to, but has failed to up till now.

 

[WAR-rior]

add all the superlatives from dictionary and make a new phrase, that only india will achieve



missed? indian shining, did it failed? india was never in the race with china, india wants to, but has failed to up till now.

No time is late to start. Good that we have finally.

 

[truthseeker2010]

So who is asking India to overtake China in 2,3 years.

But if we want to overtake China, we will have to atleast start somewhere growing more than China.

Or u mean, since we cant overtake China in couple of years, hence we shudnt grow more than anyone?

you can't even in a decade, the things india is doing now, they did it in 90's..... hence quarter of a century is minimum, but you cannot forecast at such a time scale.

 

[CONNAN]

 

[jaiind]

If the reformer,mr.modi is at power for nextr 15 years.this man can move India to higher level.

 

[WAR-rior]

you can't even in a decade, the things india is doing now, they did it in 90's..... hence quarter of a century is minimum, but you cannot forecast at such a time scale.

But its not that India dint grow. Infact, India´s future growth is gonna be both internal as well as export based. unlike China which was completely external.

And in next 10 years if China grows around 5-6 as forecated and India grows 10+. Its all equal.

 

[Guynextdoor2]

The increase is small compared to China. We missed a decade (2004-2014 under mms) in the race against China.

Now what we need 9% growth for atleast 20 years to become a global mega economy.

What wired and stupid nonsense. He is the architect of the modern Indian economy and even in recent UPA regimes, especially UPA 1 he gave consistent 8 to 9 % growth.

 

[East or West India Best]

What wired and stupid nonsense. He is the architect of the modern Indian economy and even in recent UPA regimes, especially UPA 1 he gave consistent 8 to 9 % growth.

MMS is responsible for India's growth. In fact, he should hold the place in society that Nehru currently occupies.

 

[Koovie]

Now what we need 9% growth for atleast 20 years to become a global mega economy.

Keep your feet on the ground kid.

 

[Abingdonboy]

The increase is small compared to China. We missed a decade (2004-2014 under mms

Be fair bro, under MMS India's economic growth was very healthy (averaging 8%+) it is only for a 12-18 month period in 2012-14 where grwoth dipped to 5% ( that has now been revised up by the way) where this myth that MMS was weak on the economy came in. One should also note that a lot of the fruits the current GoI are reaping are directly as a result of the work MMS did in his last 100 days as PM (he had personally set up a body to fast track hundreds of infrastucutre projects). The steps the NDA took post-May 2014 would not produce benefits for at least 12-18 months.

And lets not forget MMS is largely responsible for the liberalisation agenda from 1991/2 onwards that has lead to India being where it is today.

New Delhi: The Asian Development Bank (ADB) today projected India's growth rate to surpass China and improve to 7.8 per cent in next fiscal and further to 8.2 per cent in 2016-17. India's growth and investor confidence will improve on the back of government's structural reform agenda and improved external demand, the Asian Development Outlook (ADO), an annual publication of the ADB, said.

It forecast that India's growth will improve from 7.4 per cent in current fiscal to 7.8 per cent in 2015-16 and further to 8.2 per cent in 2016-17.

As regards China, the ADB projected the economic growth to decelerate from 7.4 per cent in current fiscal to 7.2 per cent next fiscal and 7 per cent in 2016-17.

"India is expected to grow faster than the People's Republic of China in the next few years. The government's pro-investment attitude, improvements in the fiscal and current account deficits, and some forward movement on resolving structural bottlenecks have helped improve the business climate and make India attractive again to both domestic and foreign investors," ADB Chief Economist Shang-Jin Wei said.

He, however, cautioned that although the economic prospects look promising, "there are still many challenges".

ADB's estimates is, however, lower than the 8-8.5 per cent growth estimates of Indian government for the 2015-16 fiscal beginning April. It is better than 7.5 per cent projection by the International Monetary Fund (IMF).

The ADB said that strong growth outlook is contingent on further acceleration in investment activity. "The prospects look promising."

It said the measures undertaken by the government including accelerating environment clearances for infrastructure projects, easing the process of land acquisition for infrastructure and industrial corridors, allowing auction of coal mines to the private sector, and easing the compliance burden of labour laws on small and medium-sized industries would help boost growth.

The ADB said that India's most pressing policy challenges is to promote cities as engines of economic growth and jobs.

"To fully reap the benefits of urbanisation, the government must make further efforts to coordinate urban and industry planning to attract industries into cities, and provide the necessary supporting infrastructure," it said.

Praising the India's 'Make In India' campaign to boost domestic manufacturing, Shang said, "Indian government's programme is even more striking (in comparison to China)".

As regards external sector, he said that the Indian government and the RBI have been trying to build up reserves and frame policies to monitor risk.

"India is in stronger position today than what it used to be. Government is making effort to increase FDI to deal with financial instability," Shang said.

As regards the new monetary policy framework, under which the RBI's primary objective would be to maintain price stability while remaining mindful of growth, the ADB said it would help in restraining inflation and improve the coordination between monetary and fiscal policy.


India to grow at 7.8 per cent in 2015-16; surpass China: ADB - The Economic Times

Positive news but India needs to get above 8.5% and maintain that level for 15-20 years at the minimum, this is certainly what Modi looks to be laying the groundwork for as we speak.