India to decide on its role in Afghanistan: US

[TheBraveHeart]

Given the strategic scenario, I firmly believe India teaming up with Iran for development of Afghanistan,,,going through the past that just like India, Iran too had supported Northern alliance against taliban it won't be a difficult deal.....

India on its own cannot contribute to afghan because it is not directly connected by land nor water...so India can always create a block of Iran,India, Tajikistan and Afghanistan. India taking a major initiative should interlink the other countries by road and rail...ie provide money,workers and technology.
It should carry out other projects that would provide employment opportunities to the afghan youth...

This corridor may not be used for trade only but also mass movement of soldiers whenever required...This can be achieved by having an agreement within the bloc...the same transit route can be used to fly the afghan military personal to India and western countries for training purposes.Also military supplies can also be shipped from there thereby reducing dependence on Pakistan for transit..If such initiative is taken by India, m pretty sure Iran won't mind...

Also India should build military training schools and start sending a few military instructors, also ask Iran to do so whenever required on its behalf...but should avoid confronting Taliban...

it can send a few thousand troops along the Iran border and guard those provinces and ask US to look at the Pakistan border with more intensity...

 

[deckingraj]

I totally agree with you post # 46 so only replying to this one...

Sorry to say but I guess we are not sailing in the same boat even if our destination is same....

No worries mate...This way i will learn a few things from you and may be one or two from me....

I will try being more precise hereon, so that there's no misunderstanding..!!

Thanks...

Completely disagree with your analysis(may b I m wrong but ..), after almost eight years of war, NATO hasn't been able to achieve its most important objectives...so NATO has already been a failure..

NO you are not wrong in your analysis...In fact you are pretty much right apart from the word that you have used....You can call NATO operations ineffective so far but they are not even close to what you call FAILURE...In other words we can say that the objectives which they wanted to achieve has not been accomplished...You can attribute to their bad planning..lack of clarity in objective...troops shortage or whatever...To me the biggest reason was Iraq war...Anyways having said that we should look things into perspective....You do have pointed out the bad things but kind of ignored the good things....

1. they failed to capture any of the most prominent leaders of al-qaida or taliban...

Hmmm well if you are mentioning to the big guns like OBL..Mulla Omar then you are right...otherwise they have killed captured quite a few....The taliban is still on the run and their leaders who considered Pakistan border area as safe haven are being eliminated while we are talking.....

2. they haven't been able to stabilize the country

and they cannot...The only way stability will come is by Afghan's themselves...To me talking about exit strategy is a good move.This will make the karzai govt. realize they have to buckle up...

3. the terrorists haven't dwindled in numbers but are growing each passing day, just that they don't have open havens in cities of afghan ...but their presence is felt by everyone

That we can argue....There presence is felt everywhere or they are on the run...only time will tell...

4. the taliban still controls/ is present/dominates in more than 60% of afghanistan and the NATO can't do anything about it, 40000 more troops won't do difference in an year or two....

That's a bit of overstatement...I am sure you a I are not intelligent than Mr. Mullen...If he thinks 40,000 additional Troops can do the job then i will undoubtedly believe him...Also the point to note is that there is extra emphasis on Afghan Troops taking the primary role eventually...So i will say wait and watch...

5. the most significant of the failures is,the afghan public doesn't support the invasion and give a damn to NATO reconstruction, they believe NATO wants to exploit and rule them.

Again that's a bit of overstatement...However NATO do realize that civilian casualities is proving to be counter productive and that's why there is a change on ground strategy......

6. Those countries that I talk about still have covert contacts(I suggest you go through some of the editorials that appear in US, I don't have the links, but suggest you go on Warnewsupdates site) so the pressure thing doesn't exist...

Here you are a little wrong...I am not challenging that covert contacts do not exists...That's why drone attacks are done without informing PAK(atleast on the facet that is being told)....but there is a realization in US that Pak did take them for a ride...the counter measures are on its way...In fact that's where i feel India can step in(which she is doing) by providing them effective intelligence...

In my view Obama knows the games over, and so is giving a final attempt(although a futile one), he knows the roots of terrorism have reached the crest of the earth and its just impossible to uproot them.

I highly doubt that....Sending more troops in a war zone is a very sensitive topic in US especially after the wrong doings of Bush in Iraq...Trust me a person as Intelligent as Obama will not risk his political career for something that is doomed to fail..Also if that(US loosing in Afghan) happens rest assured Obama will not come back to power the next election...So now you can imagine what is at stake politically and strategically...

7. the allies haven't been able to justify the war even on home front

You are right here...However if you go by poll stats there are still majority of people who think going out for war was the right move ...what is putting them off is the clarity of Objective...

I bet The day US moves out, there would be a truce the next day....

I agree though not that dramatic...

I again suggest u going through warnewsupdates site where many editorials(links) can be found daily,( editorials normally reflect the general opinions of a country) ....

Thanks for the suggestion...However i will take your words for it...

I know u won't believe my words but the fact is Pakistan(not the nation but its army and ISI) has played a pretty wise game..

if you are saying they are wise because they did manage to keep contacts with Taliban and helped them covertly then all i can say is - May be you are right...however from where i see i will not be surprised if there is another bomb blowing in Pakistan while i am typing...That certainly is not wise...Secondly there credibility is at Zero level...Hillary Clinton while in Pakistan pointed finger at the establishment about their dubious role in Afghan Conflict...Every second day they are being asked to do more for the conflict...Recent letter from Obama literally warning them of dilly-dallying...Restrictions in Kerry Lugar bill etc etc....

All the above indicates me that whatever wise move Army played are being looked upon and counter measures are on the way....All we need to do is wait and watch....

I rest my case hear by saying, Pakistan will go to any extent to keep afghan in its control and not allow India to have any influence over it...

And i totally agree with you...

Sir, nothings off topic over here, both of us trying to analyze the situation without which one should never come to a conclusion, its just a precursor...pls go through my next post on my views to Indian military involvement...

I still think we are little off topic because we are talking about NATO winning the war or not where as little on India's military role under both the circumstances...Your next post is directly related to topic and i am very much of the same views....

 

[fallstuff]

For some reason i was thinking, That may be India should also send troops to Afghanistan, when this post caught my eye.

I heard South Korea was sending 500 troops.
May be we can make a similar gesture.
We have given more to the UN.

But realistically , Should a developing nation like India, Join a Task force of largely developed nations.

If we were even 10 years ahead of where we were now. In terms of development in the country and the Modernization of our forces.
I would have said Lets send Tens of thousands. And wipe the Taliban from the Face of the Earth.

However we could realistically take on a Larger Military support role. That's very much a possibility.

hmmmm. The mightiest Military in the world is bogged down. If you were to wipe the Taliban from the Face of the Earth, how would you go about doing that ?

 

[fallstuff]

When you have a termite Infestation in your house.
And no matter how much money you spend on exterminating agents it refuses, to die.

Do you just call it a lost cause, give up and continue with your life as normal. Till the day the Termites cause the House to collapse on top of you.

Or do you persevere till u get rid of it.

hmmmm . If I were you I would first talk to the Russians about their little termite problems 20 yrs ago.

 

[Spring Onion]

With US leaving Afghanistan, everyone would have to decide its role.

 

[jarnee]

We cant make such kind of gesture because our neighbors doubts against us will increase and also if the soldiers will come back as body bags then there will be a general out cry from the people against the government and it will most likely throw away from the power on next election... and also it will increase terrorist activities inside India because sending troops will be interpreted as invading a Muslim country from different sources..and of cource the cost of deploying our troops also taken in to consideration

Cannot agree more, yeah same Taliban(good /bad /ugly) will have reasons to strike India.

 

[jarnee]

However having said what i have said above, it is just matter of time, India will be hit by terror strike from, Non state actors.. and then Indian govt will have to do something. It could be sending troops to Afganistan as a measure. Just recently US help unfold a major conspiracy of David headly and Rana, ..i dont know how long these filters will be able to avoid attacks

 

[Spring Onion]

Cannot agree more, yeah same Taliban(good /bad /ugly) will have reasons to strike India.

Then better remove the reasons.

 

[deckingraj]

However having said what i have said above, it is just matter of time, India will be hit by terror strike from, Non state actors.. and then Indian govt will have to do something. It could be sending troops to Afganistan as a measure. Just recently US help unfold a major conspiracy of David headly and Rana, ..i dont know how long these filters will be able to avoid attacks

How will sending troops to Afghanistan will solve the problem of terror strike in India??? As far as i know Kasab and rest of his companions were not from Afghanistan...right???....

 

[TheBraveHeart]

Deckingraj,
found a must read article for anyone commenting on afghanistan, it also hints at the wise game that I mentioned...

None Dare Call it a Rogue State



Reader Isaac, points to an excellent analytical overview of Pakistan’s national nervous breakdown at Dawn.com, by Nadeem F. Paracha. It is a lengthy but stupendous post with some 200 + comments:

Little monsters

There is nothing new anymore about the suggestion that over a span of about 30 odd years, the Pakistani military and its establishmentarian allies in the intelligence agencies, the politicised clergy, conservative political parties and the media have, in the name of Islam and patriotism, given birth to a number of unrestrained demons which have now become full-fledged monsters threatening the very core of the state and society in Pakistan.

A widespread consensus across various academic and intellectual circles (both within and outside Pakistan), now states that violent entities such as the Taliban and assorted Islamist organisations involved in scores of anti-state, sectarian and related violence in the country are the pitfalls of policies and propaganda undertaken by the Pakistani state and its various intelligence agencies to supposedly safeguard Pakistan’s ‘strategic interests’ in the region and more superficially, Pakistan’s own ideological interest.

….The 1980s and the so-called anti-Soviet Afghan jihad is colored with deep nostalgic strokes by the Islamists and the military in Pakistan. Forgetting that the Afghans would have remained being nothing more than a defeated group of rag-tag militants without the millions of dollars worth of aid and weapons that the Americans provided, and Zia could not have survived even the first MRD movement in 1981 had it not been due to the unflinching support that he received from America and Saudi Arabia, Pakistani intelligence agencies and its Afghan and Arab militant allies were convinced that it was them alone who toppled the Soviet Union.

The above belief began looking more and more like a grave delusion by the time the Afghan mujahideen factions went to war against one another in the early 1990s and Pakistan was engulfed with serious sectarian and ethnic strife. But the post-1971 narrative that had now started to seep into the press and in many people’s minds, desperately attempted to drown out conflicting points of views about the Afghan war by once again blaming the usual suspects: democracy, secularism and India.

Many years and follies later, and in the midst of unprecedented violence being perpetrated in the name of Islam, Pakistanis today stand more confused and flabbergasted than ever before.

The seeds of the ideological schizophrenia that the 1956 proclamation of Pakistan being an ‘Islamic Republic’ sowed, have now grown into a chaotic and bloody tree that only bares delusions and denials as fruit.

Read the rest here.http://blog.dawn.com/2009/12/03/little-monsters/

There has been an ocean of ink spilled about the Obama administration’s Hamlet-like deliberation over a war strategy for Afghanistan and on the implications of agreeing to 30,000 rather than the 40,000 new troops for the “Afghan Surge”, as Gen. McChrystal had originally requested. The 10,000 difference in boots is not the salient strategic point, though it is the one that excites political partisans on the Right, Left and anti-war Far Left. It also distracts us from debating our fundamental strategic challenge.

The horns of our dilemma is that our long time “ally” whom we have hitched ourselves to in a grand war effort against revolutionary Islamist terrorism is not our ally at all, but a co-belligerent with our enemy. By every policy measure that matters that causes the United States - justifiably in my view - to take a tough stance against North Korea and Iran, applies in spades to Islamabad. Yet none dare call Pakistan a rogue state.

It is the elephant in our strategy room - if the elephant was a rabid and schizophrenic trained mastodon, still willing to perform simple tricks for a neverending stream of treats, even as it eyes its trainer and audience with a murderous kind of hatred. That Pakistan’s deeply corrupt elite can be “rented” to defer their ambitions, or to work at cross-purposes with Pakistan’s perceived “interests”, is not a game-changing event. Instead, it sustains and ramps up the dysfunctional dynamic we find ourselves swimming against.

We play a bizarre game, our leaders being more concerned about Pakistan’s “stability” than Pakistan’s own generals and politicians who egg on, fund and train the very militant Islamist groups spreading death and chaos inside Pakistan and beyond its borders. Why can we not find Osama bin Laden or Mullah Omar ? Because they are high value clients of the ISI which is no more likely to give them up than the KGB was to hand over Kim Philby.

Until America’s bipartisan foreign policy elite grapple with the fact - and it is an easily verifiable, empirical, fact - that Pakistan’s government is in chronic pursuit of policies that destabilize Central Asia, menace all of Pakistan’s neighbors, generate legions of terrorists and risk nuclear war with India, no solutions will present themselves.

A strategy will only have a chance of success when it is grounded in reality.

zenpundit.com Blog Archive None Dare Call it a Rogue State

 

[deckingraj]

BraveHeart i would request you to read my post again...Ummm let me post some of it again.

if you are saying they are wise because they did manage to keep contacts with Taliban and helped them covertly then all i can say is - May be you are right...however from where i see i will not be surprised if there is another bomb blowing in Pakistan while i am typing...That certainly is not wise...Secondly there credibility is at Zero level...Hillary Clinton while in Pakistan pointed finger at the establishment about their dubious role in Afghan Conflict...Every second day they are being asked to do more for the conflict...Recent letter from Obama literally warning them of dilly-dallying...Restrictions in Kerry Lugar bill etc etc...

All the above indicates me that whatever wise move Army played are being looked upon and counter measures are on the way....All we need to do is wait and watch.....

Anyways here are my thoughts on this article...

Dude you got to check things in totality...When you say ISI-Army played a smart game what are you referring to??? If you are referring to individuals who are/were getting benefitted from all this hide and seek then yes you are right...If you are referring to Pakistan as a country then you are wrong...

Here are few experts from must read article

given birth to a number of unrestrained demons which have now become full-fledged monsters threatening the very core of the state and society in Pakistan.

f anti-state, sectarian and related violence in the country are the pitfalls of policies and propaganda undertaken by the Pakistani state and its various intelligence agencies to supposedly safeguard Pakistan’s ‘strategic interests’ in the region and more superficially, Pakistan’s own ideological interest.

Many years and follies later, and in the midst of unprecedented violence being perpetrated in the name of Islam, Pakistanis today stand more confused and flabbergasted than ever before.

1956 proclamation of Pakistan being an ‘Islamic Republic’ sowed, have now grown into a chaotic and bloody tree that only bares delusions and denials as fruit.

Here is one line that i would like to elaborate more upon which is perhaps making you believe that they played a wise game

to take a tough stance against North Korea and Iran, applies in spades to Islamabad. Yet none dare call Pakistan a rogue state.

How can you call a sate a rogue state when you desperately need them for your own national interest(Read winning Afghan War)??? Having said it I by no means is saying that Military or ISI has not taken US for a ride but if you by latest developments this FACT has been realized by US and corrective actions are on its way....You and I know that even if US want they cannot ignore Pak in AF region because of her geographical location.... Now compare the above quotes with their achievement of no-one calling them rogue state which side you see has more weight???

Also i have more questions for you...

- I hope you agree that all the actions that we take can be measured by achievements attached to it....Now please tell me what in your eyes are the achievements of PAK and ISI by playing so called double games(wise games in your POV) for Pakistan???

- One more thing... Can you tell me any objective that Pakistan Army/ ISI has achieved in respect to Kashmir(the core issue) for which all this strategic games that have been played upon apart from dividing their own country into two halves???? That's what i feel is the pitfalls when one's country is governed by Military....If you look closely you will see contrasting difference between their defence capabilities vs their economy......

 

[deckingraj]

^^^^^^^^^^^^^

Here is another development..Something related to what i have been iterating...
******************************************************************

Training for terrorists comes from Pakistan: Clinton {Edited : Please read the content and Ignore heading}

Expressing concern over series of arrests of US nationals as terror suspects, Secretary of State Hillary Clinton has said much of the training and direction for terrorists comes from Pakistan and the border area with Afghanistan.

“We know that much of the training and the direction for terrorists comes from Pakistan and the border area with Afghanistan,” Clinton told reporters at the Foggy Bottom headquarters of the State Department.

It has always been a concern, Clinton said when asked about several cases of home grown terrorists in the country.

“We know we’ve got to work more closely with both Afghanistan and Pakistan to try to root out the infrastructure of terrorism that continues to recruit and train people who are willing to do what is alleged with Zazi, David Headley, and others in the recent cases that have come to light,” Clinton said.

Headley, a US national of Pakistani origin was arrested by the FBI in October on charges of planning terrorist attacks in India and Mumbai.

The FBI in its charge-sheet filed this week has accused Headley of being involved in the Mumbai terrorist attacks.

“One of the reasons why President Obama made the decision which he announced last week with respect to our strategy going forward is because we continue to see a syndicate of terrorism that al-Qaida is, in effect, the head of that is not only an aspirational or ideological head, but providing funding and training and equipping and operational direction to a number of terrorist groups,” Clinton said. “And therefore, we will remain very vigilant at home,” she said.

The Hindu : News / International : Training for terrorists comes from Pakistan: Clinton

 

[AgNoStiC MuSliM]

^^^^^^^^^^^^^

Here is another development..Something related to what i have been iterating...
******************************************************************

Training for terrorists comes from Pakistan: Clinton

Trust the Indian media to distort the comments to highlight 'comes from Pakistan'. Clinton said nothing different from what Obama said about the border regions of Afghanistan and Pakistan serving as an 'epicenter of terrorism'.

This is why I discourage using Indian sources for events related to Pakistan, especially when the original US sources exist. The headlines and distortions only serve to flame the Pakistani members.

 

[deckingraj]

This is why I discourage using Indian sources for events related to Pakistan, especially when the original US sources exist. The headlines and distortions only serve to flame the Pakistani members.

Sir i know that heading is not in synch with content...However i cannot change the title that has been published.... If you see the bolded part even the article talks about both both Pak and Afghanistan... Anyways this content is in synch with my overall conversation with Brave Heart...

The headlines and distortions only serve to flame the Pakistani members

I see your point...Though i did my part by highlighting content yet i will try to use more neutral sources than Indian one...

 

[TheBraveHeart]

Here is one line that i would like to elaborate more upon which is perhaps making you believe that they played a wise game

How can you call a sate a rogue state when you need desperately need them for your own national interest(Read winning Afghan War)??? Having said it I by no means is saying that Military or ISI has not taken US for a ride but if you by latest developments this FACT has been realized by US and corrective actions are on its way....You and I know that even if US want they cannot ignore Pak in AF region because of her geographical location.... Now compare the above quotes with their achievement of no-one calling them rogue state which side you see has more weight???

Also i have bigger one more questions for you...

- I hope you agree that all the actions that we take can be measured by achievements attached to it....Now please tell me what in your eyes are the achievements of PAK and ISI by playing so called double games(wise games in your POV) for Pakistan???

- One more thing... Can you tell me any objective that Pakistan Army/ ISI has achieved in respect to Kashmir(the core issue) for which all this strategic games that have been played upon apart from dividing the country into two halves???? That's what i feel is the pitfalls when one's country is governed by Military....If you look closely you will see contrasting difference between their defence capabilities vs their economy......

I guess you still not getting my point entirely, no problems I shall elaborate..

As I have already mentioned the wise game is being played by ISI and the army institution and not by the people of Pak. or even Zardari (he is nothing more than a puppet)

Reasons:

1.After 9/11, the US govt. had virtually put the Pak. establishment on notice, 'Either Support our War or be ready to be bombed to stone-age', at this particular point they chose to join War on Terror, fully knowing the repercussions of not only fighting US but India too at some point of time.....it was their first wise move i.e to save their back..

2. When the Indian parliament was attacked and the forces were on border, they went to the US asking for intervention(how on earth??, US cudn't intervene in 1999 till India objectives were achieved but in three yrs they did with the same govt in place) and succeeded in avoiding a confrontation which they would have surely lost(since they won't have been able to fight for more than 6 days in 1999 they wont have been in 2002 coz 3 yrs is a very short time to change tactics) ...the second wise move i.e able to fight a proxy war without any retaliation from India and still inflicting severe wounds

3. When the US wanted them to launch an attack in SWAT and other pakistani areas, they cried for money and weapons, result they get billions of dollars and buy helicopters, F16's, agostas subs, JF17,ships, other high tech equipment... which in normal circumstances, they won't have been able to pay for!! they even get some undisclosed money(again in billions of dollars) for providing intelligence wrt some terrorists...wise move number three...They gain parity wrt India in terms of military equipment..which ostensibly were provided to fight Taliban...

4. By allowing a weak Pakistan govt. in office and controlling the strings the army/ISI decides all major decisions...their activities aren't in open and they work similar to an agent..etc..etc...fourth wise move

5. When the Mumbai carnage took place and India was pretty angry ,they pretty astutely let many NATO trucks burn, in a way exerting pressure on US, 'Either you control India or we won't control your supplies and your men die'. Result: many top diplomats fly to India, India relents, says wants justice for only Mumbai since its a burning issue and forgets Delhi,Mumbai,Jaipur,banglore ,etc...also is forgotten that all terrorists camps against India need to be dismantled...Eventually after a year they say Mumbai wasn't a big deal, it normal.....could US have accepted it had it been their case??
In a way, a wise move...You slaughter people and still get a pat on the back plus more money(b$$)

6. The country continues to nurture all jehadi elements it had previously, as mentioned in your link and mine too....but never gets isolated in International forum and praises keep on coming....

7. When there is pressure on them to show results they move in, kill some hundreds of talibans when actually the press reports that they are present in thousands(7-10K), also the number of kills is quite exaggerated(a ratio of ~1:20), ..simple comparison to Indian operation(~1:5) in Kashmir will suffice....the US stays happy..but wait a minute, where are the thousands??

8. By claiming that TTP is supported by Indian, US, etc..agencies they make the public/low rank cadre in army believe that actually they aren't fighting Muslims but infidels ...so everyone keeps quiet and gets diverted versions of RAW-CIA-MOSSAD nexus and blames them.

9. In the process they keep on increasing their nuclear weapons stock each year with no one, even India keeping their mouth shut!!!

10. NATO hasn't been able to achieve its objectives and still wants to get out of the mess at the earliest...so once they move out...who controls the area???(may be afghan govt. for certain time but how long can they??)...as soon as favorable conditions are seen, the wise men move in!!!!! And in the name of ally they get even more b$$'s

The blasts that you mentioned are the only deviation to the whole point I am trying to make, may be these are also well coordinated according to their needs, may be not,but its anybody's guess....

The one's that suffer are the people of Pakistan, India and Afghanistan but the institution which is responsible for all this **** remains intact and continues its agenda albeit with more weapons and money at hand to keep the world at guns point...

And regarding the Kashmir issue and economy..

India wasn't ready to talk to pakistan about kashmir in the early 2000's but after 9/11 its ready, if you remember Mushraff always saying "the biggest gain from Kargil was Kashmir has been added in bilateral engagements", fact is, he gets only the dates wrong the rest is same.... Also by asking US/ China to mediate it puts India in spot of bother since the day India relents for a third party, its almost game over for us.

About the economy, well you won't care about it if you got money coming from other sources that too in multiples...in anyways they never had a booming economy so not a lot to care for...

Hope you get my point, even if you don't, its OK, coz everyone may not have the same inclinations...