India to Borrow and Spend More in 2010-2011

[jbond197]

lets just call India a failed nation and end this stupid debate.

Nah, We can not end the debate before "Genius Riaz Haq" sum up all that we discussed in this thread and enlighten us their relation with the topic "India to Borrow and Spend More in 2010-2011". lol

Expect more from him to come this way..

 

[desiman]

Nah, We can not end the debate before "Genius Riaz Haq" sum up all that we discussed in this thread and enlighten us their relation with the topic "India to Borrow and Spend More in 2010-2011". lol

Expect more from him to come this way..

lol its no use, he will never and this argument will be endless. Accept it India only has poor people

 

[Trisonics]

Old data dude.. I am sure it was not intentional ...2009 report on financial development index shows Pakistan slipping from 34 to 49 (out of 55 countries evaluated). Behind the Russian Federation (40), Indonesia (48), Turkey (44), Poland (39), Brazil (34), Kazakhstan (47) and surely INDIA (38).

On some of your incorrectly reported numbers, am putting in the right details below (rank out of 55 for Pakistan)

corporate governance Pakistan (48/55)
shareholder rights index (47/55)
strength of investor protection (16/55)

Surely, not very attractive bet for investors in emerging markets


Also let me quote what the same report from 2009 says in summary about Pakistan

Pakistan (49th), the Philippines (50th), and Bangladesh (54th) round out the representation of Asian countries in the FDI, all falling within the bottom 10 countries of the Index. A high degree of political and economic instability are probably contributing to weak scores across Pakistan’s institutional (52nd) and business (50th) environments; likewise, the country shows a very high risk of sovereign debt crisis (54th).

Lets also get into detail on this report

This report talks about 7 pillars that determine financial development index. And then the report goes and ranks 55 countries on these pillars. Putting below the ranks (out of 55) of Pakistan on each of those 7 pillars

1st pillar: Institutional environment Pakistan (52/55)

2nd pillar: Business environment Pakistan (50/55)

3rd pillar: Financial stability India Pakistan (48/55)

4th pillar: Banking financial services Pakistan (46/55)

5th pillar: Non-banking financial services Pakistan (51/55)

6th pillar: Financial markets Pakistan (25/55)

7th pillar: Financial access Pakistan (50/55)

Doesnt seem too attractive.. Does it?? Needless to say, India scores better than Pakistan in each of these pillars
http://www.weforum.org/pdf/FinancialDevelopmentReport/Report2009.pdf

Awesome post man!!! but what a waste of time!!! Do you think you can argue with someone who will runaway when countered and come back to post India is poor, has no toilets?

 

[RiazHaq]

Old data dude.. I am sure it was not intentional ...2009 report on financial development index shows Pakistan slipping from 34 to 49 (out of 55 countries evaluated). Behind the Russian Federation (40), Indonesia (48), Turkey (44), Poland (39), Brazil (34), Kazakhstan (47) and surely INDIA (38).

On some of your incorrectly reported numbers, am putting in the right details below (rank out of 55 for Pakistan)

corporate governance Pakistan (48/55)
shareholder rights index (47/55)
strength of investor protection (16/55)

Surely, not very attractive bet for investors in emerging markets


Also let me quote what the same report from 2009 says in summary about Pakistan

Pakistan (49th), the Philippines (50th), and Bangladesh (54th) round out the representation of Asian countries in the FDI, all falling within the bottom 10 countries of the Index. A high degree of political and economic instability are probably contributing to weak scores across Pakistan’s institutional (52nd) and business (50th) environments; likewise, the country shows a very high risk of sovereign debt crisis (54th).

Lets also get into detail on this report

This report talks about 7 pillars that determine financial development index. And then the report goes and ranks 55 countries on these pillars. Putting below the ranks (out of 55) of Pakistan on each of those 7 pillars

1st pillar: Institutional environment Pakistan (52/55)

2nd pillar: Business environment Pakistan (50/55)

3rd pillar: Financial stability India Pakistan (48/55)

4th pillar: Banking financial services Pakistan (46/55)

5th pillar: Non-banking financial services Pakistan (51/55)

6th pillar: Financial markets Pakistan (25/55)

7th pillar: Financial access Pakistan (50/55)

Doesnt seem too attractive.. Does it?? Needless to say, India scores better than Pakistan in each of these pillars
http://www.weforum.org/pdf/FinancialDevelopmentReport/Report2009.pdf

It is no secret that Pakistan's economy has declined since 2008, and this new assessment by WEF simply reflects that fact.

But I think this WEF report authors' are guilty of the same thing as the western media in general about Pakistan: They all amplify the negatives.

Pakistan's KSE-100 stock index surged 55% in 2009 in US dollar terms and 65% in rupee terms, in a year that also saw the South Asian nation wracked by increased violence and its state institutions described by various media talking heads as being on the verge of collapse.

This just represents an opportunity for investors to buy discounted assets on KSE, just as the investors did back in 2001.

Pakistan has defied low expectations repeatedly in the past. Let me quote what Mark Bendeich of Reuters wrote on Jan 10, 2008:

"A little more than six years ago, immediately after the Sept. 11 attacks on U.S. cities, few sane investment advisers would have recommended Pakistani stocks.
They should have. Their clients could have made a fortune. Since 2001, the nuclear-armed South Asian country, blamed for spawning generations of Islamic militants and threatening global security, has been making millionaires like newly minted coins.
As Western governments have fretted about Pakistan's nuclear weapons falling into the hands of militants, the Karachi Stock Exchange's main share index has risen more than 10-fold."

FEATURE-Pakistan's paradox: bombs, blood and record profits | Quotes | Company News | Reuters

 

[Jade]

It is good that, at least you recognize that you have quoted from old data

It is no secret that Pakistan's economy has declined since 2008, and this new assessment by WEF simply reflects that fact.
But I think this WEF report authors' are guilty of the same thing as the western media in general about Pakistan: They all amplify the negatives.

WEF report, which you highlight is an index, all 55 nations are ranked based on some selected criteria. The same criteria applies to Pakistan also, so where is the question of amplify the Pakistan’s negatives

Pakistan's KSE-100 stock index surged 55% in 2009 in US dollar terms and 65% in rupee terms, in a year that also saw the South Asian nation wracked by increased violence and its state institutions described by various media talking heads as being on the verge of collapse.

Even if your calculations are correct, remember you are talking in percentages terms. It is easy one to go from $ 100 to $200, a 100% increase, but harder to go from $1000 to $ 1500, only a 50% increase

This just represents an opportunity for investors to buy discounted assets on KSE, just as the investors did back in 2001.
Pakistan has defied low expectations repeatedly in the past. Let me quote what Mark Bendeich of Reuters wrote on Jan 10, 2008:
"A little more than six years ago, immediately after the Sept. 11 attacks on U.S. cities, few sane investment advisers would have recommended Pakistani stocks.
They should have. Their clients could have made a fortune. Since 2001, the nuclear-armed South Asian country, blamed for spawning generations of Islamic militants and threatening global security, has been making millionaires like newly minted coins.
As Western governments have fretted about Pakistan's nuclear weapons falling into the hands of militants, the Karachi Stock Exchange's main share index has risen more than 10-fold."
FEATURE-Pakistan's paradox: bombs, blood and record profits | Quotes | Company News | Reuters

Unless Pakistan improves its macroeconomic measures and political stability, investors are not going to flock to Pakistan to invest. Any way why should any sane investor invest in Pakistani stocks when he can enjoy better returns by investing in Pakistani bonds (because of high interest rates)

 

[RiazHaq]

It is good that, at least you recognize that you have quoted from old data



WEF report, which you highlight is an index, all 55 nations are ranked based on some selected criteria. The same criteria applies to Pakistan also, so where is the question of amplify the Pakistan’s negatives

Unless Pakistan improves its macroeconomic measures and political stability, investors are not going to flock to Pakistan to invest. Any way why should any sane investor invest in Pakistani stocks when he can enjoy better returns by investing in Pakistani bonds (because of high interest rates)

It's not the criteria, but the WEF assessor who is swayed by the news of the day.

As to investor flocking to KSE-100, it is continuing to climb, up 8% already in 2010 so far, well ahead of India's 4.88%.

 

[desiman]

It's not the criteria, but the WEF assessor who is swayed by the news of the day.

As to investor flocking to KSE-100, it is continuing to climb, up 8% already in 2010 so far, well ahead of India's 4.88%.

ya flocking lol its amazing how you play with statistics

 

[karan.1970]

It is no secret that Pakistan's economy has declined since 2008, and this new assessment by WEF simply reflects that fact.

But I think this WEF report authors' are guilty of the same thing as the western media in general about Pakistan: They all amplify the negatives.

Riaz.. You yourself refered to this report to begin with and are now calling it biased...I just presented the right data from it...

Pakistan's KSE-100 stock index surged 55% in 2009 in US dollar terms and 65% in rupee terms, in a year that also saw the South Asian nation wracked by increased violence and its state institutions described by various media talking heads as being on the verge of collapse.

This just represents an opportunity for investors to buy discounted assets on KSE, just as the investors did back in 2001.

Certainly a high risk high reward situation. That too when you selectively chose time periods... The investors who play in that field definitely have this opportunity in Pakistan...And a bunch of people have made money on the stocks like Citibank and Satyam Computers when they crashed recently. But again, they were high risk high reward punts.

You wont find any long term money (read pension funds and likes) going that way though. Thats why its easy for a market cap of $ 10 billion becoming $ 30 billion in a decade thru punts going well... But you need a different kind of play to make $ 100 billion to $ 3 trillion in the same period


Having said that.. I just pulled up a comparison of KSE 100 and BSE index between March 2000 and March 2010

BSE moved from 5500 to 17600 where as KSE moved from 2050 to 10131 giving a CAGR of 12.32% and 17.32% respectively for BSE and KSE. However in the same period, the Pakistani rupee declined in comparison to USD from 1/51.8 to 1/85. In comparison, the Indian Rupee stayed more or less stable and declined from 1/43.4 to 1/45.45. Now factoring this into the equation and taking the index values in USD terms, the CAGR of KSE drops to 11.66% as against the USD adjusted BSE CAGR of 11.8%

Now considering the volatility of Pakistan, the size of capital markets in Pakistan and other factors highlighted by World economic Forum (your choice of report) there is no doubt which way the smart money would go and that is visible in the FII inflows into India and Pakistan.

Foreign investments into Pakistani Capital markets is expected to decline by 45.9 % to $ 1.02 billion(8 month period ending Feb 10) as against an upswing of Foreign investments in India that just hit an all time high of $ 22 billion (11 month period ending March 10)

Pakistani foreign investment falls 45.9 pct | Reuters

FII inflows hit Rs 1 lakh crore - Yahoo! India News

 

[RiazHaq]

Riaz.. You yourself refered to this report to begin with and are now calling it biased...I just presented the right data from it...

Certainly a high risk high reward situation. That too when you selectively chose time periods... The investors who play in that field definitely have this opportunity in Pakistan...And a bunch of people have made money on the stocks like Citibank and Satyam Computers when they crashed recently. But again, they were high risk high reward punts.

You wont find any long term money (read pension funds and likes) going that way though. Thats why its easy for a market cap of $ 10 billion becoming $ 30 billion in a decade thru punts going well... But you need a different kind of play to make $ 100 billion to $ 3 trillion in the same period


Having said that.. I just pulled up a comparison of KSE 100 and BSE index between March 2000 and March 2010

BSE moved from 5500 to 17600 where as KSE moved from 2050 to 10131 giving a CAGR of 12.32% and 17.32% respectively for BSE and KSE. However in the same period, the Pakistani rupee declined in comparison to USD from 1/51.8 to 1/85. In comparison, the Indian Rupee stayed more or less stable and declined from 1/43.4 to 1/45.45. Now factoring this into the equation and taking the index values in USD terms, the CAGR of KSE drops to 11.66% as against the USD adjusted BSE CAGR of 11.8%

Now considering the volatility of Pakistan, the size of capital markets in Pakistan and other factors highlighted by World economic Forum (your choice of report) there is no doubt which way the smart money would go and that is visible in the FII inflows into India and Pakistan.

Foreign investments into Pakistani Capital markets is expected to decline by 45.9 % to $ 1.02 billion(8 month period ending Feb 10) as against an upswing of Foreign investments in India that just hit an all time high of $ 22 billion (11 month period ending March 10)

Pakistani foreign investment falls 45.9 pct | Reuters

FII inflows hit Rs 1 lakh crore - Yahoo! India News

First, I haven't verified your data on stock indexes and currency exchange rates. However, even if we assume your data to be accurate, KSE still beats BSE....with KSE CAGR over 12% and BSE CAGR under 12% over 10 years from March 2000 to March 2010.

Second, most of the Pak rupee decline and the FDI decline in Pakistan have occurred since 2008. Prior to that, the rupee was fairly stable and FDI was rising.

And two years out of ten don't make a trend.

In spite of current economic difficulties, some sectors like telecom are still attracting FDI, according to a recent report.

Despite inching towards a saturation stage, the telecom sector received $1.438 billion in year 2008 and $815 million in the following year - 2009 as FDI in different projects in the ministry and its attached departments.

The total Internet users of the country rose to 19 million with total broadband users rising to 413,809 million. Total direct and indirect jobs in the telecom sector are 1.36 million.

Pakistan Telecommuni-cation Authority (PTA) Chairman Dr Mohammad Yasin opined that Pakistan’s telecommunication sector was growing faster, even more rapidly than that of India with over 63 percent teledensity, encouraging the FDI.

“Look, India is lagging far behind Pakistan with 37 percent teledensity as compared to 63.5 percent in Pakistan. Pakistan’s FDI policy is much more liberal than that of India to attract more investment in Pakistan’s telecom sector,” he added.

Haq's Musings: Pakistan's Telecom Boom Continues

Daily Times - Leading News Resource of Pakistan

 

[dvk1982]

First, I haven't verified your data on stock indexes and currency exchange rates. However, even if we assume your data to be accurate, KSE still beats BSE....with KSE CAGR over 12% and BSE CAGR under 12% over 10 years from March 2000 to March 2010.

Second, most of the Pak rupee decline and the FDI decline in Pakistan have occurred since 2008. Prior to that, the rupee was fairly stable and FDI was rising.

And two years out of ten don't make a trend.

In spite of current economic difficulties, some sectors like telecom are still attracting FDI, according to a recent report.

Despite inching towards a saturation stage, the telecom sector received $1.438 billion in year 2008 and $815 million in the following year - 2009 as FDI in different projects in the ministry and its attached departments.

The total Internet users of the country rose to 19 million with total broadband users rising to 413,809 million. Total direct and indirect jobs in the telecom sector are 1.36 million.

Pakistan Telecommuni-cation Authority (PTA) Chairman Dr Mohammad Yasin opined that Pakistan’s telecommunication sector was growing faster, even more rapidly than that of India with over 63 percent teledensity, encouraging the FDI.

“Look, India is lagging far behind Pakistan with 37 percent teledensity as compared to 63.5 percent in Pakistan. Pakistan’s FDI policy is much more liberal than that of India to attract more investment in Pakistan’s telecom sector,” he added.

Haq's Musings: Pakistan's Telecom Boom Continues

Daily Times - Leading News Resource of Pakistan

the wierd thing is 37 wa 2009 march and 63% is ur latest 2010 % Way to compare.... u r the champ.

 

[karan.1970]

First, I haven't verified your data on stock indexes and currency exchange rates. However, even if we assume your data to be accurate, KSE still beats BSE....with KSE CAGR over 12% and BSE CAGR under 12% over 10 years from March 2000 to March 2010.

how so.. 11.66 for KSE vs 11.8 for BSE. But thats not the point. The point is that the 10 year period from now to 2000 shows no significant difference between returns from KSE vs BSE.

To begin with that dispels all your propoganda of stupendous performance.

Secondly please spend some time on the volatility index of KSE vs BSE. Now which intelligent investor would put money in a much more volatile and small market that shows no differentiation in terms of returns from a much more mature, large and stable market

Second, most of the Pak rupee decline and the FDI decline in Pakistan have occurred since 2008. Prior to that, the rupee was fairly stable and FDI was rising.

And two years out of ten don't make a trend.

And thats why I have not just taken those 2 year's data to prove a point but have taken a complete 10 year data for both countries which includes ups and downs for both countries..

BTW.. Had I just taken last 2 years (Mar 2008 to Mar 2010), KSE in USD terms has returned a CAGR of (-30% )and BSE of (-2%).. See what I mean by the volatility index of Pakistan..??

[/QUOTE]

 

[su-47]

To Mr. Haq: From the data Riju posted on your profile, you do seem like a very accomplished person. I believe you can do much better than post derogatorily about another country. Why is it that you are so keen to show India in such negative light?

Indians are well aware of the poverty problems of our nation. And we are doing a lot to improve conditions. But obviously we won't like it if someone keeps harping on about poverty in India. Its just like when Pakistanis don't like anyone else using terrorism as a reason to bash Pakistan.

Mr. Haq, don't you think it will be much better to spend your time trying to show Pakistan in a positive light? There is so much good you can teach the world about Pakistan if you just take the effort. So please, if you are a real patriot, stop the India-bashing and do something to promote your country.

At the end of the day, patriotism is about love for your country, not hatred for others.

 

[desiman]

This chart clearly explains what Indianrabbit is trying to say. I hope you can read graphs mr.haq.

 

[desiman]

This is what you called volatility lol

KSE Crashes Due to CJ’s Broken Toe

Karachi, Pakistan: The KSE-100 broke the 0 point psychological barrier today after rumors spread on the trading floor that Chief Justice Iftikhar Muhammad Chaudhry slipped and broke his foot while showering. Sources inside the stock exchange called our offices and said that the trading floor was in complete mayhem as brokers tried to offload their positions.

The selling continued till late in the day and around 3:00pm the KSE-100 index fell below 0 points. Brokers all over Pakistan tried to contact the Supreme Court Registrar’s Office but no one could confirm or deny the rumors. Apart from the usual screaming and abusing at the stock exchange, many brokers were seen throwing shoes and burning effigies of Shaukat Aziz; however, no one was sure why effigies of Shaukat Aziz were being burned. Maila Times business correspondent Iqbal Junaid reported that small investors and the Memon community were hit the hardest. At the end of the day, many investors did not even bother selling their stocks as stock certificates were worth more than the actual stock. Several investors were seen selling stock certificates to the famous ‘teen dabbay wala’ on I.I. Chundrigar road, who was offering Rs.5 per kg of paper.

Credit Suisse investment banker and KSE insider Hamad Gawar told Maila Times that it is impossible to predict such a catastrophic event and what its consequences will be. Mr. Gawar was kind enough to show his forecast for the period between April 13th and May 13th 2009:


The actual performance of the KSE-100 index (given below) for the same period was a little different from Mr. Gawar’s analysis:


Chief Justice Iftikhar Muhammad Chaudhry, when informed about the situation at the Karachi Stock Exchange, immediately issued a press release to calm the investors. He told the investors that he actually broke his pinky toe and not foot and that there is nothing to worry about. Iqbal Nazim, an influential investor, said “I did not sign up for this when I petitioned for the restoration of the judiciary. Yaar, even the electricity is still going on and off. I was told that everything would get fixed if the CJ got restored. I feel duped.”

I have never heard of the BSE crashing because our chief justice broke their toe or our Prime minister fell down lol Do i really need to stress anymore lol

 

[indian_warrior]

Zadari ready for next round of visit with his famous bowl.

New IMF loan insufficient for Pakistan: economists
Sunday, August 09, 2009
KARACHI: Pakistani economists on Saturday said an additional $3.2 billion loan from the IMF would have little impact on the economic problems facing the cash-starved South Asian country.

The International Monetary Fund on Friday said it had approved an additional 3.2 billion dollar loan to Pakistan after it asked for more help to weather the global economic crisis.

The IMF said the extra funds for its Pakistan loan programme would “help the country address increased balance of payment needs” and raise the total loan to 11.3 billion dollars.

New IMF loan insufficient for Pakistan: economists
Independent economists said it wasn’t enough to solve Pakistan’s economic woes though.

“It is just a temporary relief for our economy given the fact that we have to return the loan in a brief two-year period while our economy needs a decade or so to attain stability,” economist A B Shahid told AFP.

He noted that the Pakistani rupee has already depreciated against the dollar by about a third in the last 18 months and continues to dwindle.

Pakistan’s central bank says total liquid foreign reserves currently held by the country stand at 11.71 billion dollars. They dipped to around six billion dollars last year, triggering a balance of payments crisis and forcing Islamabad to seek the IMF’s help.

The IMF has already given Pakistan four billion dollars from the 7.6 billion dollar Stand-By Arrangement agreed in November.

Mohammed Sohail, chief of Topline Securities, said the IMF’s additional loan would support Pakistan’s external account problems.

“This will provide the much needed support to Pakistan’s external accounts which came under pressure due to a slowdown in exports and foreign investment,” he said, adding that he expected the country’s foreign exchange reserves to stabilise at between 12 and 13 billion dollars.

Sohail said that though some stability was expected in the currency market in the short run, the rupee would remain vulnerable to external flows because of the global recession.

He added that news of the extra money would likely help the Pakistani equity market, currently the most under-performing one in Asia, to rise above the key 8,000-point level.

Economist Rauf Nizamani said the IMF’s loan actually risked creating new challenges for the government and the country as a whole, by forcing it to withdraw subsidies for utilities.

Islamabad “will find itself sandwiched between its people and the IMF if it withdraws subsidies on oil, gas and power as per the IMF’s guidelines,” he said, adding that this could create political unrest.

The country is already battling an insurgency in the northwest by Taliban and Al-Qaeda-linked extremists whom the United States has accused of posing an existential threat to nuclear-armed Pakistan.

It approached the IMF last year for the rescue package as it grappled with a 30-year high inflation rate and fast-depleting reserves that were barely enough to cover nine weeks of import bills.