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India to become 5th or 6th Largest Economy (Nominal) by 2016-17.

HariPrasad

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With exception and prediction of rupee strengthening , there is a possibility of India climbing high in Nominal DGP and has a very good chance to become world's fifth or sixth economy surpassing Italy, Russia, Brazil and UK.

Modi as PM can boost Rupee to 45 against Dollar, all time high since 2008: Citigroup | India News Analysis and Op-Ed Commentary | Politics | Governance | Economic Freedom | National Interest

My calculation is as follows:

Rupee strengthening to Rs 45 to 40 against USD in 3 years.

Indian economy grows at 6%, 7%, and 8% respectively for 3 years.

Current GDP 1.9 Trillion.

In 2016-17, Indian GDP will be 3 Tr USD+. Making India 5th or 6th largest economy.

Gentleman let us discuss.
 
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With exception and prediction of rupee strengthening , there is a possibility of India climbing high in Nominal DGP and has a very good chance to become world's fifth or sixth economy surpassing Italy, Russia, Brazil and UK.

Modi as PM can boost Rupee to 45 against Dollar, all time high since 2008: Citigroup | India News Analysis and Op-Ed Commentary | Politics | Governance | Economic Freedom | National Interest

My calculation is as follows:

Rupee strengthening to Rs 45 to 40 against USD in 3 years.

Indian economy grows at 6%, 7%, and 8% respectively for 3 years.

Current GDP 1.9 Trillion.

In 2016-17, Indian GDP will be 3 Tr USD+. Making India 5th or 6th largest economy.

Gentleman let us discuss.
Mate i would advise you not to open threads like this in this forum.I knoe that you opened this thread with a positive mindset to discuss the pros and cons of your analysis but we all know that soon it will start to attact Chinese,Bd and Pakistani trolls who will come here to abuse our country and hence the thread will ultimately derail and the mods won't even lift their fingers.This is the downside of being an Indian member in this forum,you won't be able to discuss a serious topic freely...:rolleyes:
 
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Mate i would advise you not to open threads like this in this forum.I knoe that you opened this thread with a positive mindset to discuss the pros and cons of your analysis but we all know that soon it will start to attact Chinese,Bd and Pakistani trolls who will come here to abuse our country and hence the thread will ultimately derail and the mods won't even lift their fingers.This is the downside of being an Indian member in this forum,you won't be able to discuss a serious topic freely...:rolleyes:


Thanks for your advice bro. It is now the time for us to learn to ignore idiots and move ahead.
 
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@levina apa - In the light of the above developments can you at least make sure that the powers that be increase @Ayush 's stipend & that @Dillinger on opening his own audit firm doesn't hire Audit Trainees at dirt-cheap hourly rates to slave-away for him ! :angry:

In my short Audit Experience I was paid a mere $100 a month ! :cry:

I'm sure you as Modi's Cousin would be able to enact these changes ! :agree:
 
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With exception and prediction of rupee strengthening , there is a possibility of India climbing high in Nominal DGP and has a very good chance to become world's fifth or sixth economy surpassing Italy, Russia, Brazil and UK.

Modi as PM can boost Rupee to 45 against Dollar, all time high since 2008: Citigroup | India News Analysis and Op-Ed Commentary | Politics | Governance | Economic Freedom | National Interest

My calculation is as follows:

Rupee strengthening to Rs 45 to 40 against USD in 3 years.

Indian economy grows at 6%, 7%, and 8% respectively for 3 years.

Current GDP 1.9 Trillion.

In 2016-17, Indian GDP will be 3 Tr USD+. Making India 5th or 6th largest economy.

Gentleman let us discuss.
difficult with rupee at 60 to a dollar but i read CNN IBN report today, they are saying GDP is growing at 5.8% in second quarter which is fastest in last 3 years
 
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Weekly review: RBI stops Indian rupee from strengthening against US dollar!!
In a dull trade during the week under review, the Indian rupee softened further by six paise to close at 59.17 against the US dollar following sustained demand for the American currency from importers amidst possible intervention by the RBI through state-run banks.
However, record-breaking local equities and increased capital inflows restricted the rupee's fall to a major extent, a forex dealer said.
Weekly review: RBI stops Indian rupee from strengthening against US dollar - Financial Express Mobile
Meanwhile, the RBI announced cut in statutory liquidity ratio (SLR) by 50 basis points that will result into a release of nearly Rs 40,000 crore into markets. The RBI kept the repo rates unchanged.
At the Interbank Foreign Exchange market, the domestic unit commenced the week lower at 59.27 and continued its downslide to a low of 59.48 on dollar demand from importers, mainly oil refiners.
It later bounced back to a high of 59.06 on bullish local stocks amid continued capital inflows before settling the week at 59.17, still showing a fall of six paise or 0.10 pct. Last week, it was down by 59 paise or 1.01 pct.
The benchmark S&P BSE Sensex closed the week sharply higher by 1,179.12 points to touch new peak - its biggest weekly gains in nearly last five years.
PramitBrahmbhatt, Veracity Group CEO, said, "Last week as expected the rupee traded range-bound. RBI credit policy came as a breather for the investors, as RBI Governor Raghuram Rajan kept the key interest rates untouched and also gave a positive statement saying that "if the economy stays stable, further policy tightening will not be necessary. On the other hand, if inflation comes down faster than currently anticipated, it will create an opportunity for an easing of the policy stance."
"Taking cues from this, the rupee ended near previous week's close. The major resistance for USD/INR pair is at 59.80 and on downside the support is at 58.50. Recommended to be cautious and Sell USD/INR (Futures) on rise with
appropriate stop loss as overall the rupee is expected to appreciate. Pivot point for the pair is at 59.21 and below is the support and resistance levels," he added.
Forward dollar premiums finished mixed. The benchmark six-month forward dollar premium payable in November closed a tad lower at 243.5-245.5 paise from 244-246 paise last weekend while far-forward contracts maturing in May 2015 shot up to 494-496 paise from 476.5-478.5 paise.
The RBI fixed the reference rate for the USD at 59.1970 and euro at 80.8345 from 59.0335 and 80.3350 previously, respectively.
The rupee remained weak against the pound sterling to end at 99.54 from last weekend's level of 98.91 and also moved down further against the euro to 80.73 from 80.44.
It, however, recovered against the Japanese currency to end at 57.81 per 100 Japanese yen from preceding weekend's close of 58.13.
 
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With exception and prediction of rupee strengthening , there is a possibility of India climbing high in Nominal DGP and has a very good chance to become world's fifth or sixth economy surpassing Italy, Russia, Brazil and UK.

Modi as PM can boost Rupee to 45 against Dollar, all time high since 2008: Citigroup | India News Analysis and Op-Ed Commentary | Politics | Governance | Economic Freedom | National Interest

My calculation is as follows:

Rupee strengthening to Rs 45 to 40 against USD in 3 years.

Indian economy grows at 6%, 7%, and 8% respectively for 3 years.

Current GDP 1.9 Trillion.

In 2016-17, Indian GDP will be 3 Tr USD+. Making India 5th or 6th largest economy.

Gentleman let us discuss.

What good would that do? Strengthening the rupee would reduce the exports.
 
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With exception and prediction of rupee strengthening , there is a possibility of India climbing high in Nominal DGP and has a very good chance to become world's fifth or sixth economy surpassing Italy, Russia, Brazil and UK.

Modi as PM can boost Rupee to 45 against Dollar, all time high since 2008: Citigroup | India News Analysis and Op-Ed Commentary | Politics | Governance | Economic Freedom | National Interest

My calculation is as follows:

Rupee strengthening to Rs 45 to 40 against USD in 3 years.

Indian economy grows at 6%, 7%, and 8% respectively for 3 years.

Current GDP 1.9 Trillion.

In 2016-17, Indian GDP will be 3 Tr USD+. Making India 5th or 6th largest economy.

Gentleman let us discuss.
50 rs @$ is possible. ... 40-45 may be not possible within 3 years time frame... 7 % is possible ...
 
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My calculation is as follows:

Rupee strengthening to Rs 45 to 40 against USD in 3 years.
That means a tremendous fall in exports as we could become uncompetitive and priced out of American and European markets. If the rupee appreciates further, the exporters stand to lose this competitive edge to other countries. Exports will once again start to decline even as domestic revival is yet to pick-up. This will also encourage more imports resulting in a terrible balance of payments situation.

The Indian economy started showing improvement after the export oriented companies became more competitive in global markets after rupee fell to all-time low of 68.80 in August last year. The exports have been providing support to the economy at a time when the IIP data continued to show weak growth, month after month.

A significant rise in the rupee will also negatively impact earnings in sectors like, IT, Pharma, Leather and Garment exports. All leading to serious pressure on the jobs market.

A Rs 60-61 bracket against the USD I think would be ideal.
 
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That means a tremendous fall in exports as we could become uncompetitive and priced out of American and European markets. If the rupee appreciates further, the exporters stand to lose this competitive edge to other countries. Exports will once again start to decline even as domestic revival is yet to pick-up. This will also encourage more imports resulting in a terrible balance of payments situation.

The Indian economy started showing improvement after the export oriented companies became more competitive in global markets after rupee fell to all-time low of 68.80 in August last year. The exports have been providing support to the economy at a time when the IIP data continued to show weak growth, month after month.

A significant rise in the rupee will also negatively impact earnings in sectors like, IT, Pharma, Leather and Garment exports. All leading to serious pressure on the jobs market.

A Rs 60-61 bracket against the USD I think would be ideal.

But the import bill will also go down pro rata. Net effect will be positive only since we are a country with trade deficit.
 
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With exception and prediction of rupee strengthening , there is a possibility of India climbing high in Nominal DGP and has a very good chance to become world's fifth or sixth economy surpassing Italy, Russia, Brazil and UK.

Modi as PM can boost Rupee to 45 against Dollar, all time high since 2008: Citigroup | India News Analysis and Op-Ed Commentary | Politics | Governance | Economic Freedom | National Interest

My calculation is as follows:

Rupee strengthening to Rs 45 to 40 against USD in 3 years.

Indian economy grows at 6%, 7%, and 8% respectively for 3 years.
Well ,as of 2013 Indian eonomy is at
~ $1.9 trillion or 114,00,000 crores @ 60/ $
------> @45/$ it will be $2.532 trillion.
Now if the Indian economy grows at 6% , 7% ,8% & 8% in 2014 ,15, 16 &17 respectively,
Then without any change in the currency levels ,
ie @ 60/$(from $1.9 trillion in 2013) ,
In 2014 @ 6% it will be $2.014 tillion ,
In 2015 @ 7% it wiould be $2.154 trillion ,
In 2016 @ 8% it would be $2.322 trillion, &
In 2017 @ 8% it would be $2.507 trillion,
so by 2017 Indian economy would be $2.507trillion @ 60/$.
convert it @45/$ and it would be,
150,00,000 crore = $3.33 trillion @45/$.
If that happens we would be 6th largest economy as per wiki ,behind,
6) UK -- 2017--- $3.34 trillion
5) France-- '17--$3.308 trillion
4) Germany--'17--$4.4 trillion
&
7) India---'17---$3.33 trillion

But i doubt RBI would let ruppee climb up to 45/$ as it would make our exports costlier ,forcing those countries to in a way go for a cheaper country instead,we can't afford to loose our clients,hence i doubt if would be allowed by the RBI to climb back to 45/$.

RBI for now is commited to let rupee hover around 59-61 , so i doubt it. :)
 
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