You are true If US can achieve 5% GDP growth then maybe China will need more time to surpass US but after 9 years of less then 3% GDP growth and 2 times minus GDP growth US can't suddenly take his GDP growth to 5% it would require a few years and in those few years analysts says China will surpass US and you know China economy will grow more in 2015. Let's see about this shale oil potential.
Not only that but the China should also maintain 8+ GDP growth for next one decade .Any change in that would again reduce their chance.Something that we already began to see.They need sometime forfilling that bad debt.