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India: the emerging Asian super power

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SOURCE : THE HINDU

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Singapore’s defence minister Ng Eng Hen stated last month that his country wanted India to play a bigger role in the South China Sea. The leaders of Vietnam and the Philippines have also made similar statements in recent years. This “invitation” extended to India by the leaders of Southeast Asia to participate in that region’s security affairs is tantamount to India’s emergence as a great power in Southeast Asia, and by extension, in Asia itself.

Southeast Asia connects the Indian and the Pacific Oceans, and includes some of the most important maritime chokepoints, is likely to be the site of order-making in Asia in the context of the rise of China.

Thomas Donilon, who was the American National Security Advisor when the US said its “pivot/rebalancing” has explained that the pivot is not just about “rebalancing towards Asia” but also includes rebalancing “within Asia” as America has begun to focus “in a renewed way on Southeast Asia and Asean.” Furthermore, the Asian-institutional architecture is Asean-centric and Asean-led.

Therefore, India’s emerging profile in Southeast Asia is significant and marks its arrival as a great power.

Solid grounds

There are two main reasons that explain the benign perception of India’s rise in Southeast Asia. First, there are no territorial disputes between India and its immediate neighbours in Southeast Asia. India has a land border with only one Southeast Asian state, Myanmar, which was fixed by their British colonial rulers in 1937.

India has maritime borders with three Southeast Asian states: Myanmar, Thailand, and Indonesia. India’s maritime boundaries with Thailand and Indonesia were fixed through a trilateral agreement in 1978, while India’s maritime boundary with Myanmar was finalized in 1987.

Second, India is not pursuing any unilateral or hegemonic policies towards Southeast Asia. In 2012, former Prime Minister, Manmohan Singh, explicitly noted that New Delhi believes that “Asean centrality is essential in the evolving regional architecture,” endorsing Asean’s leading role in regional diplomacy.

Similarly, at the military/maritime level, India not only prefers to be invited into the region , but former defence minister, Pranab Mukherjee, noted in 2006 that India was willing to assist the regional states in “any capacity” for security in the Strait of Malacca subject “to the desire of the littoral states.”

In other words, despite India’s more advanced military capabilities, New Delhi is not claiming the mantle of leadership there but prefers to work in accordance with the local norms and mores.

Therefore, it is not surprising that Lee Kuan Yew, Singapore’s recently deceased statesman, welcomed India’s presence in Southeast Asia in 2007 by noting that there was “no fear” that India had “aggressive intentions.”

India has now transcended its home region of South Asia due to its growing power in Southeast Asia, thus becoming a key component of the Asian security architecture along with the region’s other great powers: the United States, Japan, and China. Notably, all three Asian great powers also seem to be willing to work with India in Southeast Asia.

Strategic edge

US President Obama has urged India to “act East” on a number of occasions. Furthermore, the US and India released a joint vision statement earlier this year in which they specifically called for “safeguarding maritime security and ensuring freedom of navigation and over flight throughout the region, especially in the South China Sea.” On his part, Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe sees the India-Japan relationship as a “confluence” of the Indian and Pacific Oceans.

Notably, Southeast Asia is geographically — and geopolitically — located at this confluence. The Japan-India statement on their strategic and global partnership that was released last year especially noted the launch of their “bilateral dialogue on Asean affairs.” Finally, China also seems to be willing to work with India, even if begrudgingly, in the region’s economic and institutional affairs.

Through their 2008 shared vision document, China and India agreed to “explore … a new architecture for closer regional cooperation in Asia, and to make joint efforts for regional integration of Asia.” This statement, which explicitly identified the Asean-led East Asia Summit as an avenue where China and India can work together is significant simply because China was hitherto unwilling to recognize India as a major power in Asia beyond South Asia.

In other words, the regional states of Southeast Asia, as well as the great powers active in Southeast Asia, now seem willing to grant India the status of a great power in that region.

This has two noteworthy implications. First, these acts ‘legitimise’ India’s status as a great power in Asia as well as its role in the security affairs of a region outside of India’s home region in South Asia. As such, India is not seen as an interloper. Second, this empirically demonstrates that the rise of a new great power need not disrupt the extant order as is normally assumed. In fact, the rise of a new great power — in this case, India — can be seen as contributing to the maintenance of the regional order.

Security angles

India has three main security-related interests in Southeast Asia. First, as noted by Mukherjee in 2005, India’s “Look East” strategy is based on the principle of “the maintenance of an equitable strategic balance.”

India does not want Southeast Asia to be dominated by any single great power. Consequently, India is upgrading its naval and air assets in the Andaman and Nicobar Islands. Located at the mouth of the Strait of Malacca, India’s maritime and air capabilities in the Andamans help India meet its second security interest in the region: the security of the Strait itself. Finally, India’s growing maritime and air capabilities — cantered on diverse platforms such as the P-8I aircraft, the C-130Js, the C-17 Globemasters, Sukhoi-30 MKIs, aircraft carrier(s), nuclear submarine(s), and landing dock(s) — allow India to project military power into the South China Sea from the Andamans.

After all, India’s third security interest in Southeast Asia is to ensure the freedom of navigation in the South China Sea. In fact, India’s regional partnerships — including docking rights at Vietnam’s Nha Trang port — may further augment India’s capabilities.

At the same time, India has been providing a range of security-related public goods in Southeast Asia such as the provision of humanitarian and disaster relief assistance as well as military capacity-building in regional states.

Despite these modest but significant efforts, Southeast Asian states want India to “do more” pro-actively. The crucial question now is whether India’s political leaders will grasp the geopolitical opportunity to ensconce India in the emerging Asian order or if a lack of vision and the exigencies of domestic politics will effectively force New Delhi to squander the chance to shape Asia.

At the very least, India needs to expedite its economic engagement with Southeast Asia while enhancing physical connectivity – land and maritime – in order to demonstrate its seriousness.


India: the emerging Asian super power | idrw.org
 
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I'm excited to see these "India superpower" articles are back
They were so prolific during the 2000's era - the chatter about the 'shining superpower' was omnipresent in world media.
Then early this decade, the fervor subsided because of India's dismal growth, and also because the rape epidemic became India's dominant narrative.

Now with Modi, it's clear the media is being directed back to the superpower narrative. A good thing in my opinion, because who wants to hear about rape :sick: We want to hear about the shining superpower :)
 
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I'm excited to see these "India superpower" articles are back
They were so prolific during the 2000's era - the chatter about the 'shining superpower' was omnipresent in world media.
Then early this decade, the fervor subsided because of India's dismal growth, and also because the rape epidemic became India's dominant narrative.

Now with Modi, it's clear the media is being directed back to the superpower narrative. A good thing in my opinion, because who wants to hear about rape :sick: We want to hear about the shining superpower :)

In your opinion why is this the case?
 
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I'm excited to see these "India superpower" articles are back
They were so prolific during the 2000's era - the chatter about the 'shining superpower' was omnipresent in world media.
Then early this decade, the fervor subsided because of India's dismal growth, and also because the rape epidemic became India's dominant narrative.

Now with Modi, it's clear the media is being directed back to the superpower narrative. A good thing in my opinion, because who wants to hear about rape :sick: We want to hear about the shining superpower :)

It's ironic you Chinese are mocking something which the world once mocked you for a couple of decades ago. You should be the first people to attest on how fast things can change in the economic progress of the nation.
 
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It's ironic you Chinese are mocking something which the world once mocked you for a couple of decades ago. You should be the first people to attest on how fast things can change in the economic progress of the nation.

"The world" mocked and is still mocking us for a lot of things. But self proclaiming a super power wannabe is never one of them. Bragging before doing is just not something we do.
 
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I'm excited to see these "India superpower" articles are back
They were so prolific during the 2000's era - the chatter about the 'shining superpower' was omnipresent in world media.
Then early this decade, the fervor subsided because of India's dismal growth, and also because the rape epidemic became India's dominant narrative.

Now with Modi, it's clear the media is being directed back to the superpower narrative. A good thing in my opinion, because who wants to hear about rape :sick: We want to hear about the shining superpower :)

My queries as as below:
  1. With a smaller population, ASEAN is far bigger economy than India by all means e.g. GDP, trade volume, GDP/capita, fiscal reserves. ASEAN is financially far more powerful.
  2. ASEAN is much more industrialized. In terms of Industrial GDP Indonesia alone is about the same as India, not to mention ASEAN which also include manufacturing powerhouse Thailand, microchip hub Malaysia & world financial center Singapore. Just the 5 founders of ASEAN have manufacturing added 2.3 times that of India (WB2013, $515 bn vs $223 bn). While India is an agricultural economy (17.4% of GDP, one of the highest in the world which average at 5.9%).
  3. In terms of security, with a strong tech/industrial base ASEAN can produce basic weaponry, and with powerful financials they are no short of top notch weaponry supplies from overseas e.g. F-15SG, F-16 Block 52/60, Su-27/30, Type-218SG, SSK Chang Bogo Class. Moreover there is ANZUS, and bi-lateral co-ops between ASEAN with other UNSC P5 countries, Japan, SK.
  4. Other advantages possessed by ASEAN includes education, natural resources, ASEAN + 3 (CN/JP/SK) FTA, etc.
How will India interact with a much bigger, much wealthier, and much more industrialized ASEAN?

GDP comparisons.jpg

@Indos
 
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India can into space, probe the moon and orbit mars.

India can into thermonuclear weapons and hypersonic missiles (soon)

India can into carrying indigenous fighter aircraft on carrier ship.

India can into deep pockets to buying any military hardware, all NATO and Russian weapons up for sale and even co development.

India can ignore US sanctions and into good relations with Russia, Ukraine, Saudi, Iran and Israel.

Hundreds of millions of middle class with expendable income, it's a good market, current government is good, it's stable, everyone should invest here :P



but a superpower ? no, and no one here has those kinds of ambitions anyway..

the US is the world's only standing superpower, be it trade/influence/culturally/militarily.. they dwarf even Russia and China, India is not even a faint blip on the 'superpower' radar.

people just take pride in whatever little we have managed to achieve so far, spl considering our dark colonial past so this 'superpower' thing gets thrown around needlessly and foolishly all too often.. good fodder for our nuclear armed neigbours who can take all the piss they want but India is still on it's way up, in fact both China and India are, China obviously being much ahead..

only Pakistan stays chained to extremist mullah ideology and remains fascinated with a particularly disgusting loathsome strain of arab culture.. that of women in garbage bags and sponsoring bloody suicidal jihad in their neighbourhood.

hopefully the Chinese can talk some sense into them to stop all this nonsense and work on their economy instead.
 
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My queries as as below:
  1. With a smaller population, ASEAN is far bigger economy than India by all means e.g. GDP, trade volume, GDP/capita, fiscal reserves. ASEAN is financially far more powerful.
  2. ASEAN is much more industrialized. In terms of Industrial GDP Indonesia alone is about the same as India, not to mention ASEAN which also include manufacturing powerhouse Thailand, microchip hub Malaysia & world financial center Singapore. Just the 5 founders of ASEAN have manufacturing added 2.3 times that of India (WB2013, $515 bn vs $223 bn). While India is an agricultural economy (17.4% of GDP, one of the highest in the world which average at 5.9%).
  3. In terms of security, with a strong tech/industrial base ASEAN can produce basic weaponry, and with powerful financials they are no short of top notch weaponry supplies from overseas e.g. F-15SG, F-16 Block 52/60, Su-27/30, Type-218SG, SSK Chang Bogo Class. Moreover there is ANZUS, and bi-lateral co-ops between ASEAN with other UNSC P5 countries, Japan, SK.
  4. Other advantages possessed by ASEAN includes education, natural resources, ASEAN + 3 (CN/JP/SK) FTA, etc.
How will India interact with a much bigger, much wealthier, and much more industrialized ASEAN?

View attachment 216742
@Indos
That's why a lot of low value-added manufacturing companies mostly are moving o ASEAN.
Vision on the Global South (excellent analysis!)
Global South GDP 1.png
 
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