India Takes Middle Road in Manila-Beijing Dispute
India’s Ministry of External Affairs urged China and the Philippines to “exercise restraint” and resolve their brewing row over ownership of a set of islands in the South China Sea through diplomacy.
New Delhi’s position is notable because it shows the country will not always side with China’s opponents in territorial disputes, as many might assume.
But by raising its voice, India also is signaling it’s ready to assume a larger diplomatic role in the region, part of a “Look East” policy that since its inception in the 1990s has come to little but in recent months appears to be taking shape.
The longstanding ownership row over the small islands – known as Scarborough Shoal in the Philippines and Huangyan in China – has erupted again in the past month after Manila intercepted Chinese fishing vessels in the area.
A large anti-Chinese demonstration is planned for today in Manila and Beijing has warned its citizens over travel to the Philippines.
One might have imagined that India would either not respond to the kerfuffle or come down on the side of the Philippines, given its historic antagonism with China.
India and China fought a 1962 border war that Beijing won. The frontier between the two countries remains unsettled. Tensions have risen further in recent months over India’s growing role in the South China Sea, which Beijing claims almost in its entirety.
New Delhi’s goal in the region is two-fold. It wants to secure oil and gas assets in the South China Sea to meet growing demand at home for energy. And it wants to act as a counterweight to China in the area, whose islands are also claimed by the Philippines, Vietnam and other Asian countries.
Beijing’s decision to build its own naval presence in the Indian Ocean, New Delhi’s backyard, has added to frictions.
To develop its approach, India has been stepping up diplomatic and security cooperation with countries in East Asia that share New Delhi’s concerns about what they see as China’s growing assertiveness.
Some recent incidents have unnerved Indian policymakers. China last year warned ONGC, India’s state-owned oil and gas company, that its joint exploration plans with Vietnam in the South China Sea amounted to a violation of Chinese sovereignty.
So why isn’t India stepping in to back up Manila?
One reason could be that India realizes that a conflict with China probably isn’t winnable.
Indians were ecstatic last month when the country test fired a nuclear-capable missile with a range covering much of China, a move which pundits here said would deter Beijing from belligerence.
But China’s spending on conventional arms is far outstripping India’s military, which continues to rely on outdated equipment.
In the future, India likely sees a path of wary accommodation of China as the most fruitful policy.
What’s more, India is hoping to broaden the foundations of its economic growth by tapping into China’s expansion. The two countries’ bilateral trade jumped to over $60 billion in the year ended March 31, 2011, more than double the figure four years earlier.
Still, India’s decision to speak up at all on the issue of a dispute between China and the Philippines perhaps shows the “Look East” policy is here to stay. And that likely means more diplomatic spats to come in the years ahead in the South China Sea and elsewhere in East Asia.
India Takes Middle Road in Manila-Beijing Dispute - India Real Time - WSJ