India signs $5 billion deal for Russian air defense system despite threat of U.S. sanctions

[Osiris]

$5 Billion for an air defense system is way too over priced.

Well, that is the price of system, China payed $3 Billion for 3 regiments or 6 battalions of S400 ( minus the 400Km 40N6 missile) back in 2015.

 

[LeGenD]

With this deal alone, India will significantly strengthen its defenses vis-a-vis Pakistan (and China), make Russia happy, and give the impression to relevant parties that India will not play to the tunes of US. A masterstroke of sorts.

Pakistan (and China) would have to go back to the drawing board in regards to how to breach Indian defenses.

US will have to revisit its China-containment initiative. India is not a reliable partner, and others flopped in SCS.

India ; Russia = 1
Pakistan ; China = 0
US = 0

India showing 'middle finger' to everybody, with assistance of Russia.

However, when push comes to shove in the subcontinent, India will be alone, with its current trajectory. Russia does not have foothold in the Indian Ocean but US do. And China might establish its own due to CPEC. Cannot have your cake and eat it too.

@Nilgiri

 

[TaiShang]

US will have to revisit its China-containment initiative. India is not a reliable partner, and others flopped in SCS.

That's probably the most one the important aspects. This is, indirectly, a positive gain for China and Russia.

 

[LeGenD]

That's probably the most one the important aspects. This is, indirectly, a positive gain for China and Russia.

India not being a reliable partner, leave the door open for China (and Pakistan) to bring US into the fold with mutual compromises.

1. US and China do not build bases in the Indian Ocean - peaceful environment

2. CPEC flourish

Win - Win

 

[Nilgiri]

With this deal alone, India will significantly strengthen its defenses vis-a-via Pakistan (and China), make Russia happy, and give the impression to relevant parties that India will not play to the tunes of US. A masterstroke of sorts.

Pakistan (and China) would have to go back to the drawing board in regards to how to breach Indian defenses.

US will have to revisit its China-containment initiative. India is not a reliable partner, and others flopped in SCS.

India ; Russia = 1
Pakistan ; China = 0
US = 0

India showing 'middle finger' to everybody, with assistance of Russia.

However, when push comes to shove in the subcontinent, India will be alone, with its current trajectory. Russia does not have foothold in the Arabian Waters but US do. And China might establish its own due to CPEC. Cannot have your cake and eat it too.

@Nilgiri

I didnt get your tag for some reason.

Bhai, let us wait to see what the US response actually is before we jump to the gun here on out.

For all we know India and US have already planned out the response from both sides in earlier negotiations for every contingency (A, B , C Style).

US has a much bigger job to put sanctions on EU anyway first for their energy trade with Russia:

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/arti...-to-eu-hit-seasonal-record-amid-ukraine-talks

This amounts to about 25 billion USD (at current raw NG prices) per year from EU to Russia for just gas alone.

Assuming 5 year implementation of this 5 billion dollar S-400 deal between India and Russia....that is about 25 times the yearly forex intensity (and more than 100 times on per capita basis and many more times than that when factoring in level of development and wealth etc) that EU provides to Russia (from just gas alone) than India does with this S-400 deal.

India probably pointed this out to Pompeo etc in the earlier meetings this year....to first prove common standard for all (and by order of priority of biggest forex providers to Russia). If US doesnt do it there, not much room to do it with India (this also applies to the trade deficit tariff situation).

As for Indian energy trade with Iran, lets see how that pans out. Again my hunch is that India already is aware of what the US response will be (if anything serious) and has determined its fine given the case that can be made about Indian CAD pressure (US energy export simply is not feasible cost wise to address it as replacement for Iran oil and gas). This is all also under the larger shadow of what action US wants to take further in addressing Pakistan too (as India wants)....India simply is not going to join anything w.r.t Iran unless there is major concession from US regarding Pakistan policy. If status quo there, status quo with Iran....simple....US understands this I feel as far as they see w.r.t their proclivity to counter China's rise....they do not want to overplay anything.

One also has to remember the US response to Chinese confirmation to keep buying Iranian energy was quite limited sanction wise (if you dig to what they actually did)....they put sanctions on a specific Chinese finance institution (that China delegated to handle this trade with Iran) and a few of its select members (and that too only as far as their US operations are concerned which already is quite limited or non-existent). Nothing broad or deep was done....and thats concerning a far bigger threat (China) that US perceives.

@vostok @Chinese-Dragon @MilSpec @rott @dy1022

 

[TaiShang]

Assuming 5 year implementation of this 5 billion dollar S-400 deal between India and Russia....that is about 25 times the yearly forex intensity (and more than 100 times on per capita basis and many more times than that when factoring in level of development and wealth etc) that EU provides to Russia (from just gas alone) than India does with this S-400 deal.

But you are only looking at the economic aspect. S-400 has its own security dimension that the US would probably care more about natural gas.

Also weapons purchases include technology-system integration, and creates path dependencies for future security collaboration.

India made a stance, I think, that it wants to diversify its security options, not entirely relying on the US.

Remember the US pressure on Turkey when they contemplated to buy China's missile defence system. They probably care more about this than trade in natural resources.

 

[Nilgiri]

But you are only looking at the economic aspect. S-400 has its own security dimension that the US would probably care more about natural gas.

Lets see how it goes on that avenue too:

https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com...400-deal-with-russia/articleshow/66102231.cms

 

[sputnik]

With this deal alone, India will significantly strengthen its defenses vis-a-vis Pakistan (and China), make Russia happy, and give the impression to relevant parties that India will not play to the tunes of US. A masterstroke of sorts.

Pakistan (and China) would have to go back to the drawing board in regards to how to breach Indian defenses.

US will have to revisit its China-containment initiative. India is not a reliable partner, and others flopped in SCS.

India ; Russia = 1
Pakistan ; China = 0
US = 0

India showing 'middle finger' to everybody, with assistance of Russia.

However, when push comes to shove in the subcontinent, India will be alone, with its current trajectory. Russia does not have foothold in the Arabian Waters but US do. And China might establish its own due to CPEC. Cannot have your cake and eat it too.

@Nilgiri

OnOn P, I like this impression very much that India is not reliable partner;
1. Russia: India is buying US weapons. Is not reliable partner. Lets sale S 400 to them
2. Iran: ONLY on PDF, india is not reliable partner. Let's sale more oil to them.
3. USA: India buying Russian weapons and Iranian oil. Not very reliable partner. Let's not sanction them.
4. France: Modi is thief. Let's give Jags for free.

PDF THINK TANKS and Pak. Members should do some soul searching as to whom u trying to make fool out of.
@Nilgiri @TaiShang .

 

[TaiShang]

OnOn P, I like this impression very much that India is not reliable partner;
1. Russia: India is buying US weapons. Is not reliable partner. Lets sale S 400 to them
2. Iran: ONLY on PDF, india is not reliable partner. Let's sale more oil to them.
3. USA: India buying Russian weapons and Iranian oil. Not very reliable partner. Let's not sanction them.
4. France: Modi is thief. Let's give Jags for free.

PDF THINK TANKS and Pak. Members should do some soul searching as to whom u trying to make fool out of.
@Nilgiri @TaiShang .

I think India comes out not as a unreliable partner but as a pragmatic country.

Who would like to be reliable partner in international relations, after all Absolute reliability can only be found in master-slave relations. Even that may not be absolute.

 

[Sam.]

I think India comes out not as a unreliable partner but as a pragmatic country.

Who would like to be reliable partner in international relations, after all Absolute reliability can only be found in master-slave relations. Even that may not be absolute.

India is a reliable partner if you don't agree ask Russia & Bhutan. Our partnership with USA was on the premises of equality while they want us to do what they want in return they are propping up Pakistan for the last 60 years against us.

USA want us to let go Iran and Russia while they are not letting go their alliance with Pakistan.

 

[MilSpec]

India is a reliable partner if you don't agree ask Russia & Bhutan. Our partnership with USA was on the premises of equality while they want us to do what they want in return they are propping up Pakistan for the last 60 years against us.

USA want us to let go Iran and Russia while they are not letting go their alliance with Pakistan.

Indian policy revolves around just one phrase, "India First", and then everything else is to maintain amicable relations with big players. Level of amicability fluctuates when it interferes with our own interests.

 

[Sam.]

Indian policy revolves around just one phrase, "India First", and then everything else is to maintain amicable relations with big players. Level of amicability fluctuates when it interferes with our own interests.

This is how every state behaves "state first" unless it's a religious state where "religion first"

 

[MilSpec]

This is how every state behaves "state first" unless it's a religious state where "religion first"

Not necessarily, there are a lot of nations out there where it's role in power structure is embedded in the camp they belong to and will harm it's own interests to further the bigger goals of the group. India across it's modern history has paid through it's nose to ensure it's strategic posturing is where it is. When it comes down to it, it will accommodate as long as it's self interest is intact. We'll play, as long as we don't pay.

 

[ARMalik]

Some members are jumping up and down about this deal but in the end US will win. US is playing a long-term game. US always knew that it could not have prevented india from buying S-400s. However, The various agreements between India and US specially the recent communication technologies, and logistics agreements will ensure the platforms with the Indian armed forces and US will build military interoperability. There will come a time very quickly, when India will be “locked in” and becomes an ally of the US, and will play as a crony of Washington.

 

[randomradio]

However, when push comes to shove in the subcontinent, India will be alone, with its current trajectory. Russia does not have foothold in the Arabian Waters but US do. And China might establish its own due to CPEC. Cannot have your cake and eat it too.

@Nilgiri

The US needs India more than India needs the US when it comes to containing China.

And when it comes to defence, the US knows that India will choose Russia over the US. As for Iran, the US also knows that India is too big and too poor to simply jump to another supplier. So the US has no choice but to provide waivers, or risk alienating India. So neither side has a choice in the matter.

Also, when it comes to defence and oil, we have asked the US to match Russia and Iran, which they have failed to do. For example, the US do not have an S-400 equivalent system, and at the same price, which the Americans themselves have admitted to. And if we are going to lease another nuke sub, our request will be to offer an equivalent or better American sub if they don't want us to get a Russian one. And we have asked the US to supply Iranian equivalent imports in oil at Iranian prices and terms if they want zero imports from Iran, which they can't do either.

In each case, we threw the ball in the American court and they failed to deliver. So life's gonna go on as usual.