India shouldn't expect Russia to come to its defence if China were to violate the Line of Actual Control, says US deputy NSA Daleep Singh

[Cheepek]

Friends are between equals. It is always the case, both in personal and international relationships.

China and Russia are not equals today. After the invasion of Ukraine, Russia is nothing more than a client state for China. For instance, the Ukrainians have posted videos that show the parts inside downed Russian drones in their territory. Almost all electronics and optical components of the drone are consumer grade electronics imported from US, Japan and China. Now that the other countries have blocked electronics into Russia, with what electronic components will Russia manufacture weapons? Russia's manufacturing industries rely heavily on western technology. With that supply chain completely cut off, Russia will have no other option than to switch to China as long as Putin remains in helm.

This is a tragic geopolitical development for India. I'm sure that the policy makers in GOI are worried at this. Just a matter of time before the realization trickles down to everyone who refuses to admit that Russia is just another client for China in this polarized world.

You underestimate India-Russia ties and overestimate Russia-China ties.
You don't frame long term policies with a short term myopic view.
As of today, Russia is not a client state of China. I think it would be prudent to wait and see how things go ahead. An erstwhile super power would not want to be dictated by anyone. If Russia is to submit to Xitler, might as well submit to Biden then!

Nonetheless, the development is indeed a setback for India, but it's not something we can't handle. There will be more ups and downs.

 

[Wood]

You underestimate India-Russia ties and overestimate Russia-China ties.
You don't frame long term policies with a short term myopic view.

I think mutually committed interests are extremely important for geopolitical alignment. The lack of mutual interests will invariably lead to derailing of any alliance. Nations prioritize their interests above all else.

Just consider how the US backed Pakistan during the Afghan war with SU, but dropped the support abruptly after that. In my view, this is simply an example of misaligned interests after the Soviet war. If you think that this happened because US is just evil, then I can never convince you about the reason in my assertion

 

[Rank]

Nothing wrong with the statement... Americans know India has zero capability to fight or stand against China. Since Modi came into power, the Indian military establishment and Govt have shown strong reliance on fake news, fake surgical strikes, and fake encounters just to make the gullible public fool. In reality, they can't do that anything practical. Failed to provide any single evidence to date in defence of their tall claims about all the confrontration btw Pak and China. Indian mil tried one adventure and got a bloody nose in the broad daylight from Pakistan and exactly after a year again Indian mil failed to defend itself against China @ LAC. The statement of the US State dept is spot on!

 

[Cheepek]

I think mutually committed interests are extremely important for geopolitical alignment. The lack of mutual interests will invariably lead to derailing of any alliance. Nations prioritize their interests above all else.

Just consider how the US backed Pakistan during the Afghan war with SU, but dropped the support abruptly after that. In my view, this is simply an example of misaligned interests after the Soviet war. If you think that this happened because US is just evil, then I can never convince you about the reason in my assertion

You know right we still have access to top Russian weaponry and tech even after China shelling out nx times more than us...

 

[Wood]

You know right we still have access to top Russian weaponry and tech even after China shelling out nx times more than us...

Russia's stature in the Russia - China relationship has changed dramatically after Ukraine invasion. Russia has already closed both its tank manufacturing production lines after the western companies completely cut off its supply chain. In fact T-14 Amrata has not had serious production because of western sanctions that followed the Crimean invasion.

Now who can Russia rely on for electronics and other sub components if every other component provider is completely closed off?! China is the only source for Russian manufacturing supply chain. So if Russia continues to manufacture and deliver anything new for India, it means that the Chinese have approved it.

 

[RescueRanger]

Once again the US stirring the pot. India’s defence - quite frankly is India’s business.

 

[Cheepek]

Russia's stature in the Russia - China relationship has changed dramatically after Ukraine invasion. Russia has already closed both its tank manufacturing production lines after the western companies completely cut off its supply chain. In fact T-14 Amrata has not had serious production because of western sanctions that followed the Crimean invasion.

Now who can Russia rely on for electronics and other sub components if every other component provider is completely closed off?! China is the only source for Russian manufacturing supply chain. So if Russia continues to manufacture and deliver anything new for India, it means that the Chinese have approved it.

Ok

 

[Abid123]

Nobody comes to anyone’s rescue, one needs to be self reliant for self defence.

You are right but tell that to European NATO countries LMAO...

 

[Wood]

On a related note:

Russian FM Sergey Lavrov Lands in India for Official Visit; Will Meet PM Modi, Jaishankar on Friday - News18

Sergey Lavrov’s visit marks the highest-level visit from Russia to India after Moscow launched its military offensive against Ukraine on February 24

www.news18.com

The Russian Foreign Minister’s visit comes shortly after India abstained from voting on a Russia-backed resolution in the United Nations Security Council (UNSC). Russia’s resolution was perceived to be critical of Ukraine. The resolution failed to pass as it lacked nine more votes.

 

[lastofthepatriots]

 

[MilSpec]

You were in the Russian camp abet silently, many things were off limits but not the case anymore. Heck, you guys are being more pampered than the Pakistani's were.



That's what I've been saying in the other thread. Russia has been reduced for a lack of better word a prostitute that offers some benefits.

Still bought everything from Mig21's to Su30's, bought Osa class to admiral gorshkov. Not FMA equivalent transfers.

 

[The BrOkEn HeArT]

What you say is absolutely correct, but Russia can't help us the way it helped in 71'. It was easy for Russia to choose then. Not anymore.

Russia did provide us with emergency assistance even during the latest standoff against China, but India also rebuffed their "offer" to act as a "mediator" b/w India and China. Highly likely because we saw what was coming.

Just like India, Russia also has very close military ties with China.
China has gained significant leverage on Russia, and that leverage acts as an assurance that Russia will not short change China.

As of today, if war breaks out- we will get assistance from Russia, and so will China. We should not expect Russia to come to India's aid at the expense of China. Same as they will not come to China's aid at the expense of our multi decadal worth ties and goodwill. Putin isn't going to ditch India because of a newly found rich friend. It's not worth it in the long run.

This is the maximum flexibility we can expect from Russia as of now. Anything more is obviously welcome but I would not bet on it.

I think in case of Indo-China war, Russia will be neutral diplomatically but supply arms to India as China is not much dependent on Russia for arms.
This is the best way for Russia to maintain their tie with both India and China.

 

[帅的一匹]

No one can stop China, including USA.

Indians shall thank their Gods that China is a peaceful country.

 

[El Sidd]

China has lots to catch up to India. For example India hosts Tibetan exile government, trains militants in Central Asia.

 

[SuvarnaTeja]

No one can stop China, including USA.

Indians shall thank their Gods that China is a peaceful country.

I am a South Indian.

I love China.

I Thank China.