INDIA 's Nuclear military capability-A FULL Analysis..

[Chanakya's_Chant]

Notable Points(s):- India has registered a record production of over 1,252 MT of uranium bundles this year, manufacturing close to double the annual fuel requirement of atomic reactors in the country. The production has also exceeded country’s annual fuel requirement of 650 MT for the Pressurised Heavy Water Reactors (PHWRs), which means the country has surplus nuclear fuel, for at least a few months.

The Hyderabad-based Nuclear Fuel Complex, which produces fuel for nuclear reactors in the country, has produced over 30 per cent more fuel compared to its 961.023 MT production in 2013-14.

India's nuclear fuel production - The Hindu

>> India has several civilian nuclear deals very recently and has renewed the old ones including deals with Canada and Australia. France was the first country to sign the civil nuclear deal in 2008 followed by eight other countries. These are Russia, Mongolia, Namibia, Argentina, UK, Canada, Australia, Kazakhstan and South Korea. And the deliveries have either commenced or are about to commence shortly - All thanks to the Indo-US Civilian Nuclear Deal in 2008.

Kazakhstan to supply 5,000 T uranium to India in 2015-19 -Nazarbayev| Reuters
Canada to Supply Uranium to India for 5 Years Under Landmark Deal
‘Framework on Australian uranium supply to India by year-end’ - The Times of India

>> Six Nuclear Reactors are under construction - 10 nuclear reactors are at various levels of consideration - India's Generation of nuclear power has doubled over the past five years and we are on course to double our nuclear power generation capacity to more than 10,000 mega watts (MW) over the next five years.

>> With more fuel available, capacity utilisation of nuclear power plants has improved from 50% in 2008-09 to more than 80% now.

>> While progress on power reactors with foreign collaboration has been slow, India’s indigenous reactor program is going along just fine. Four of the reactors are under construction: two each at Kakrapar and RAPP (Rajasthan) are indigenously designed 700 mw reactors. Work on another pair is expected to start in mid-2015 in Haryana, and six more are planned at three sites. These indigenously designed reactors appear set to be the workhorses of Indian nuclear program.

>> A new uranium hexafluoride plant at the Indian Rare Metals Plant (IRMP) near Mysore has been completed - This will support new centrifuges that will substantially expand India’s uranium enrichment capacity, most likely to facilitate the construction of an increased number of naval reactors to expand the country’s nuclear submarine fleet, but potentially also to support the development of thermonuclear weapons.

India increases its uranium enrichment programme - IHS Jane's 360

>> Kalpakkam FBR will be commissioned by year end.

India's fast breeder reactor to go critical soon | Business Standard News

>> India's First Fast Reactor Fuel Cycle Facility (FRFCF) / FBR Fuel Reprocessing Plant Coming up in TN - To be Completed by 2019 - foundation to be laid within two months.

India to get first fast reactor fuel reprocessing plant in TN for Rs 9,600 crore - The Economic Times

 

[GURU DUTT]

Bhai jaan ; bas itna YAKEEN Janiye ki Hum apne dono DUSHMANON ko
NISTO naboot karne ki SALAHIYAT rakhte hain ; AMEEN

in short baat nazar ki nahi nazarrie ki hai per hamara ek dushman is baat ko samjh chukka hai per doosra apni "anna" ki khaatir ye baat samjhnne se kassir hai

 

[Malik Usman]

Bhai jaan ; bas itna YAKEEN Janiye ki Hum apne dono DUSHMANON ko
NISTO naboot karne ki SALAHIYAT rakhte hain ; AMEEN

Believe and Indian two opposite things......They just talk, talk and talk........and talk...................and talk......nothing ore..

 

[Chanakya's_Chant]

There has been lot of misconception about India's real and imagined nuclear capabilities and make belief comparing with small countries like Pakistan so I am posting about India's fissile material capability since these so called Think Tanks use Fissile material as a yard stick for comparing India with Pakistan's military nuclear infrastructure.




India India has the capacity to reprocess at least 350 metric tons of heavy metal per year (MTHM/yr) in four facilities.

The official estimate of India’s natural uranium reserves provided by the Indian Govt stands at 210000 tons of uranium“reasonably assured resources” (RAR) plus an additional 500000 tonnes in AP –Telengana region of discovered conventional resources so that makes it a grand total of

210000 +500000 = 710000 tonnes.


Now where does India produce plutonium

1) CIRUS ( 40Mwt) assuming 1,000 (MWD/MTU) is necessary for producing weapons-grade plutonium it would have generated 9.4 kgs of plutonium ( WG) per annum so total WG Pu generated 413.6 Kgs till 2010 when CIRUS was shut down.

2) DHRUVA ( 100 Mwt) assuming low burnups of 665 MWD/MTU to 1000MWD/MTU with an operating factor of 0.7 woud have generated till now 626 Kg of WG Pu.


Now India has 8 PHWRs outside safeguards assuming .29 conversion factor so total thermal rating == 8233 to 8410 Mwt


that a single 700 MWt PHWR is committed for the production of weapons-grade plutonium rather than the production of electricity at low BURNUPs of 1000 MWD/MTU will generate 180 kgs of WG Pu per year .

If all are used at low burn ups it would yield 1400 Kgs of WG Pu per year which is ggod for 280 nuclear heads a year , but it would require annual fuel loading of 2000 MTU but we only prduce 1200 MTU/yr but we can increase our capacity and fast refuelling capacity which our CANDU derivatives are capable off but it would tax our refuelling machines.

These eight CANDU derivatives would have a requirement for natural uranium would increase to 60000MTU for their complete lifetime , as i have mentioned above we have the Uranium .

Our online reuelling machines will have problems if we fast fuel full core for all the reactors but it is possible.

So if India goes with this maximalist stance of agressive fissile material buildup through its CANDU derivatives at 1000 MWD/MTU and 0.7 loading factor India would be able to produce--------- 1400 Kgs of WG Pu /yr which is good for----------------------280 warheads/yr

Due to the above mentioned problems of 2000 MTU fuel and technical difficulties if only

1/4th or 1/3rd of the core is used for the production of weapons-grade plutonium operated at a 0.7 capacity factor and low discharge burnup of 1,000 MWD/MTU for a single 700 Mwth reactor ----50 Kgs for 1/4th core and 86 kgs 1/3rd core of WG Pu per year.


700 MWth 50Kg(1/4th core) 86 Kgs ( 1/3rd core ) 1000 MWD/MTU at 0.7


If all 8 reactors are used WG Pu generated per year


8200 Mwth 538 Kgs ( 1/4th core ) 995 Kgs ( 1/3rd core ) 1000 MWD/MTU



The fuel requirement for 1/3rd core low burup operation 1100 MTU/yr which is in India’s capacity

So India can operate all PHWR at ¼ th or 1/3rd core and can make

¼ th core---------- 107 warheads /yr

1/3rd core-----------200 warheads/yr


Here I will not include our PFBR which itself can generate 146 Kgs of WG Pu / Yr in its radial and axial blanket.

Again I will not include our ongoing expansion of our cemtrifuge program which is for our SSBN and SSN cores and also for Staged fusion ( Thermonuclear secondary)

Again i am not going into our AVLIS and MVLIS program

Pakistan's Heavy water reactor capacity to produce plutonium == 275 Mwth
India's Heavy water reactor capacity potentially to produce plutonium== 8233 Mwth
Total plutonium India has outside safeguards including fuel grade and weapons grade === 16000 Kgs
Total plutonium Pakistan has outside safeguards in weapons grade form == 125 kg to 150 kgs


Total number of bombs Pakistan can produce per year == 9 nuclear bombs
Total number of bombs India can produce per year ==== 156 bombs

In case anyone is mentally challenged 156 bombs > 9 bombs

In here I am not including India's fast breeder reactor which only one country in Asia operate.
Pakistan's reprocessing capacity is in the gutters and most important you are running out of Uranium ore before long you will be operating on depleted tails while India has enough uranium to last 60 years of weapons program and our Three stage program can last for 500 years .

The game changer on India's part will be the invention FAST BREEDER REACTOR.
Once it is done then according to experts India can produce 700 warheads annually.

India currently has 3 types of nuclear weapons in it's arsenal . These are :

(1) Thermonuclear Device
(2) Fusion boosted Fission Bomb ( 2 types - Weapon grade plutonium & Reactor grade Plutonium)
(3) Fission Plutonium Bomb (2 types - Low Yield & High Yield )

After the 45 kiloton Pokhran-II nuclear tests India received its first fusion boosted weapon device . Present-day thermonuclear weapons need plutonium or highly enriched uranium to set off the hydrogen-bomb part.Fusion produces 1 neutron for 14 MEV release of energy, while fission produces approximately 3-4 neutrons for 200 MEV release of energy. Ergo ,Fission is energy intensive whereas fusion is neutron intensive.

In an interview to the Federation of American Scientists Dr. R. Chidambaram (RC), Chairman, AEC & Secretary, DAE had clearly mentioned that a Thermonuclear weapon was indeed tested .

Press Conference

Shortly after POKHRAN II BARC published their radio-chemical analysis estimate of the S-1(Fusion Weapon) yield . The raw data has not been presented as it could reveal the specifics of the weapon design. However, it provides a qualitative method of determining the efficacy of the tests.

Page on barc.gov.in

India is also expanding its thermonuclear arsenal - as evident from the expansion of uranium enrichment facility at the Indian Rare Metals Plant, Mysore - The plant is able to produce about twice as much weapons-grade uranium as India will need to fuel its nuclear powered ballistic missile submarines in the future.

The removal of various structures related to construction support activities in February 2014 suggests that facility expansion is nearing completion. (PLEIADES © CNES 2014, Distribution Astrium Services / Spot Image / IHS)​

India increases its uranium enrichment programme - IHS Jane's 360

 

[gslv mk3]

Believe and Indian two opposite things......They just talk, talk and talk........and talk...................and talk......nothing ore..

Oh really ? Would you say that about our space,missile & nuclear programs ?

Pokhran II not fully successful: Scientist

We have thermonuclear bombs for deterrence: Kakodkar

 

[gslv mk3]

But woh phootta nahien DuD hey yeh tu lulwa hoi gaya

Don't use hindi/urdu in these sections.Read the rules first,Mr.troll

 

[gslv mk3]

@waz @Horus Kindly deal with this troll

 

[PARIKRAMA]

Noob question:

1. Any Uranium imported, i presume a clause may be there for peaceful civilian purpose use correct?So in the estimation by @locker and @Chanakya's_Chant (post 1 and post 16), is that point duly considered?

2. Weapon grade Uranium/Plutonium Maintenance and actual weapons (WMDs) is two different things. If the truth is what is being correctly said by OP then why the whole western media cries that Pakistan has more nukes then India.. Why SIPRI estimates India to have 90-100 Nukes whereas Pak they feel have 120+..

3. Why the alarmist people have not cornered India saying sign CTBT/NPT and other treaties when they know once weaponsied India can convert these kgs of Uranium/Plutonium into bombs equivalent to what say for example Pak or Israel produces in a Decade.. Why no one had red flagged it?

4. Most importantly, whats the progress in producing designs for MIRVed Missiles like Agni series. Has the miniaturization and appropriate weapon production took place? or the weapon grade extracts are there to finally form that only but not yet done due to waiting for program evolution?

i don know.. i am sure India weapons are understated versus many other countries over stated arsenal. But still i am unable to liink the massive produced weapon grade Uranium/Plutonium versus the actual weapons/bombs which India has in reality..

If someone can explain in simple words for the noob question, please do help..

 

[locker]

1. Any Uranium imported, i presume a clause may be there for peaceful civilian purpose use correct?So in the estimation by @locker and @Chanakya's_Chant (post 1 and post 16), is that point duly considered?

Yes they will be used for peaceful process for electricity use but in all these agreements there is still a question mark that will they monitor the fissile material or not under IAEA guidance.
Actually you missed the news that Japan will allow India to use its nuclear fuel to be used to make A bombs when the deal will be signed.
Also india is under consideration of making large uranium reserves.

Weapon grade Uranium/Plutonium Maintenance and actual weapons (WMDs) is two different things. If the truth is what is being correctly said by OP then why the whole western media cries that Pakistan has more nukes then India.. Why SIPRI estimates India to have 90-100 Nukes whereas Pak they feel have 120+..

Actually I know there have been many hue and cry but according to me the realistic figure would be India having 200+ nukes. India was on the midst of having crisis and shutting down its nuclear reactors because of shortage of fuel but then the famous 2005 india-us nuclear deal came in and was a boon for India. So all the NGOs and Sipri have been calculating on these terms but still their calculation is wrong and as I said earlier that India's figure today stands at around 200 and yet India has not achieved its true potential let some time go then you will see the real potential.

3. Why the alarmist people have not cornered India saying sign CTBT/NPT and other treaties when they know once weaponsied India can convert these kgs of Uranium/Plutonium into bombs equivalent to what say for example Pak or Israel produces in a Decade.. Why no one had red flagged it?

The tremors of such situation has just started to feel in other countries.
During vajpayee time he was ready to sign CTBT which gave message that the pokhran test wasn't a failure.
Many people have started to protest against India.
Approximately more than 150+ countries have sounded caution against Japan and India nuclear deal and they are opposing the deal.
But as you can see India has whole NSG in its favours even without NPT.
India has applied for NSG and MTCR.
We can get the results till 2016.
Once that happens than no one will cast an eye on India's Nuclear programme.

Also as you can see once India gets its FAST BREEDER REACTOR then the possibilities of number of nuclear bombs made from it is enormous.
Russia is the only country besides India which has indigenous FBR that's why we see RUSSIA on top having most number of nuclear warheads.

4. Most importantly, whats the progress in producing designs for MIRVed Missiles like Agni series. Has the miniaturization and appropriate weapon production took place? or the weapon grade extracts are there to finally form that only but not yet done due to waiting for program evolution?

The miniaturization has been completed according g to me but it seems to be seen how many mirves will a single Agni series missile contain because it depends on number of mirves.

Don't worry bro those Think tanks are not actually think tanks theu are NGOs which copy paste the figure from each other and nothing else.
So its better to ignore.

 

[HariPrasad]

Source ?

Mysore site may be covertly used to produce n-material: U.S. think tank - The Hindu

 

[Maarkhoor]

I heard somewhere that warhead Indian produced can't fit on missile because missiles and warheads designed by different organizations and they don't share data to each other it is discovered during 2002 stand off when Indian army chief ask scientist to mount warhead on missiles because Pakistan going to deploy nuclear missiles then they face this problem and army chief informed Govt that in case of Pakistani nuclear strike they can't retaliate by ballistic missiles only choice is aircraft which is quite dangerous thats why they decided to pull back.
@HariPrasad @nForce

 

[HariPrasad]

Yes they will be used for peaceful process for electricity use but in all these agreements there is still a question mark that will they monitor the fissile material or not under IAEA guidance.
Actually you missed the news that Japan will allow India to use its nuclear fuel to be used to make A bombs when the deal will be signed.
Also india is under consideration of making large uranium reserves.


Actually I know there have been many hue and cry but according to me the realistic figure would be India having 200+ nukes. India was on the midst of having crisis and shutting down its nuclear reactors because of shortage of fuel but then the famous 2008 india-us nuclear deal came in and was a boon for India. So all the NGOs and Sipri have been calculating on these terms but still their calculation is wrong and as I said earlier that India's figure today stands at around 200 and yet India has not achieved its true potential let some time go then you will see the real potential.

The tremors of such situation has just started to feel in other countries.
During vajpayee time he was ready to sign CTBT which gave message that the pokhran test wasn't a failure.
Many people have started to protest against India.
Approximately more than 150+ countries have sounded caution against Japan and India nuclear deal and they are opposing the deal.
But as you can see India has whole NSG in its favours even without NPT.
India has applied for NSG and MTCR.
We can get the results till 2016.
Once that happens than no one will cast an eye on India's Nuclear programme.

Also as you can see once India gets its FAST BREEDER REACTOR then the possibilities of number of nuclear bombs made from it is enormous.
Russia is the only country besides India which has indigenous FBR that's why we see RUSSIA on top having most number of nuclear warheads.

No the miniaturization has been completed according g to me but it seems to be seen how many mirves will a single Agni series missile contain because it depends on number of mirves.

Don't worry bro those Think tanks are not actually think tanks theu are NGOs which copy paste the figure from each other and nothing else.
So its better to ignore.

@locker Bhai,

Aap bahut hi knowledgeable lagte hai is mamle mai. Pl confirm what I have quoted in my post regarding the India having a huge stock pile of Tritium which we have collected by a special crystallization process of Detritiumization.

 

[PARIKRAMA]

@locker
Brother, Thanks a ton for sharing this information.. For long i thought we are too slow and even our Nuclear program for deterrence is with typical indian style of Chai Nashta and lethargic speed.. Suddenly, i am coming to know many folks had worked hard for decades without getting the due recognition for the sake of the country. Thanks a ton for the details..

 

[locker]

@locker Bhai,

Aap bahut hi knowledgeable lagte hai is mamle mai. Pl confirm what I have quoted in my post regarding the India having a huge stock pile of Tritium which we have collected by a special crystallization process of Detritiumization.

Sorry bro I was seeing the gslv launch online live on ddnational.
Sorry for replying late
Yes my friend you are right India has abundance amount of Tritium.

USA's SLBM has tritium as a BOOSTING thermonuclear warhead.
Simply speaking
Tritium enhances the efficiency of a fission bomb in the process named as Boosting
Tritium is required for boosting purpose of a warhead to make it more efficient (as you mentioned)

USA had tritium production problem since 1990s. Hence the 2005 nuclear agreement was signed not only to get profits from Indian cooperation and expansion of nuclear plants but also to make India stopgap place for nuclear weapons.

India can become the leader in supply of Tritium.
As we have our contributions in ITER.
In the near future we will be the driving force and leader in next generation power generation
One is in thorium led electricity generation which will drive in power generation by denuclearization process.
And other one in Tritium
@PARIKRAMA @HariPrasad
Thanks for your comment do visit again.

 

[Capt.Popeye]

Having 200 nuclear warheads is same as having 1000 nuclear warheads, unless of course you don't wish to finish the planet many times over. The key here is the delivery system and not the number of warheads.

More than delivery systems; it is the "Yield Level" of the warhead. A Tactical Nuke Warhead is nowhere near a Strategic Nuke Warhead. So don't get bamboozled by reports of who has how many Nukes.....

Fissile Material is the critical parameter to be considered. Consider this; India is willing to sign up for the Fissile Material Cutoff Treaty (FMCT); while pakistan is not....... now work out why !?

 

[Optimos Prime IA]

Having 200 nuclear warheads is same as having 1000 nuclear warheads, unless of course you don't wish to finish the planet many times over. The key here is the delivery system and not the number of warheads.

Its not about the way u looking at . Its all about survivability of warheads . More warheads means more chances for retaliation . Thats the reason we need nukes in huge numbers . But it also comes with huge bills to maintain them safely . Thats why we always kept nukes at minimum that too we were assured of retaliation by Russians in case of china nuked us . So India needed to maintain 80-100 to destroy pakistan at any cost and support combined nuclear attack on china along with Russians.

But today Russians may take string stand against china but wont nuke them due to retaliation on them . So Its time india should maintain the parity not just with pakistan but also with china . Chinese want to pressure india to enter into arms race and spend our money on defence other than spending on infrastructure . So chinese kept breading pakistan with weapons and nukes . Now more nukes with pakistan means tremendous amount threat pressure applied on India . But so be it we dont have any other option . We should atleast have 500 nuclear weapons all over india land sea and islands . Now that's assured death for both neighbours.

There has been lot of misconception about India's real and imagined nuclear capabilities and make belief comparing with small countries like Pakistan so I am posting about India's fissile material capability since these so called Think Tanks use Fissile material as a yard stick for comparing India with Pakistan's military nuclear infrastructure.




India India has the capacity to reprocess at least 350 metric tons of heavy metal per year (MTHM/yr) in four facilities.

The official estimate of India’s natural uranium reserves provided by the Indian Govt stands at 210000 tons of uranium“reasonably assured resources” (RAR) plus an additional 500000 tonnes in AP –Telengana region of discovered conventional resources so that makes it a grand total of

210000 +500000 = 710000 tonnes.


Now where does India produce plutonium

1) CIRUS ( 40Mwt) assuming 1,000 (MWD/MTU) is necessary for producing weapons-grade plutonium it would have generated 9.4 kgs of plutonium ( WG) per annum so total WG Pu generated 413.6 Kgs till 2010 when CIRUS was shut down.

2) DHRUVA ( 100 Mwt) assuming low burnups of 665 MWD/MTU to 1000MWD/MTU with an operating factor of 0.7 woud have generated till now 626 Kg of WG Pu.


Now India has 8 PHWRs outside safeguards assuming .29 conversion factor so total thermal rating == 8233 to 8410 Mwt


that a single 700 MWt PHWR is committed for the production of weapons-grade plutonium rather than the production of electricity at low BURNUPs of 1000 MWD/MTU will generate 180 kgs of WG Pu per year .

If all are used at low burn ups it would yield 1400 Kgs of WG Pu per year which is ggod for 280 nuclear heads a year , but it would require annual fuel loading of 2000 MTU but we only prduce 1200 MTU/yr but we can increase our capacity and fast refuelling capacity which our CANDU derivatives are capable off but it would tax our refuelling machines.

These eight CANDU derivatives would have a requirement for natural uranium would increase to 60000MTU for their complete lifetime , as i have mentioned above we have the Uranium .

Our online reuelling machines will have problems if we fast fuel full core for all the reactors but it is possible.

So if India goes with this maximalist stance of agressive fissile material buildup through its CANDU derivatives at 1000 MWD/MTU and 0.7 loading factor India would be able to produce--------- 1400 Kgs of WG Pu /yr which is good for----------------------280 warheads/yr

Due to the above mentioned problems of 2000 MTU fuel and technical difficulties if only

1/4th or 1/3rd of the core is used for the production of weapons-grade plutonium operated at a 0.7 capacity factor and low discharge burnup of 1,000 MWD/MTU for a single 700 Mwth reactor ----50 Kgs for 1/4th core and 86 kgs 1/3rd core of WG Pu per year.


700 MWth 50Kg(1/4th core) 86 Kgs ( 1/3rd core ) 1000 MWD/MTU at 0.7


If all 8 reactors are used WG Pu generated per year


8200 Mwth 538 Kgs ( 1/4th core ) 995 Kgs ( 1/3rd core ) 1000 MWD/MTU



The fuel requirement for 1/3rd core low burup operation 1100 MTU/yr which is in India’s capacity

So India can operate all PHWR at ¼ th or 1/3rd core and can make

¼ th core---------- 107 warheads /yr

1/3rd core-----------200 warheads/yr


Here I will not include our PFBR which itself can generate 146 Kgs of WG Pu / Yr in its radial and axial blanket.

Again I will not include our ongoing expansion of our cemtrifuge program which is for our SSBN and SSN cores and also for Staged fusion ( Thermonuclear secondary)

Again i am not going into our AVLIS and MVLIS program

Pakistan's Heavy water reactor capacity to produce plutonium == 275 Mwth
India's Heavy water reactor capacity potentially to produce plutonium== 8233 Mwth
Total plutonium India has outside safeguards including fuel grade and weapons grade === 16000 Kgs
Total plutonium Pakistan has outside safeguards in weapons grade form == 125 kg to 150 kgs


Total number of bombs Pakistan can produce per year == 9 nuclear bombs
Total number of bombs India can produce per year ==== 156 bombs

In case anyone is mentally challenged 156 bombs > 9 bombs

In here I am not including India's fast breeder reactor which only one country in Asia operate.
Pakistan's reprocessing capacity is in the gutters and most important you are running out of Uranium ore before long you will be operating on depleted tails while India has enough uranium to last 60 years of weapons program and our Three stage program can last for 500 years .

The game changer on India's part will be the invention FAST BREEDER REACTOR.
Once it is done then according to experts India can produce 700 warheads annually.

Super bro. Tag me also from next time
Interesting info . And even if we dont says it we already possess enough warheads . But its high time to show it off. As pakistan snooped it via china and so there is no stopping them . Since these think tanks dont count our off the book materials we should use it to our benefits and slowly release our numbers systematic manner . Nuclear power is to displayed openly as enemy may tempted to use it mistakenly .

We should go for one more test of neutron bomb and extra large thermo nuclear bomb then call it a day and sign a treaty . But we need to become more stronger economically and militarily to take sanctions . So I prefer 2022 or last term of Modi jis second term .