There has been lot of misconception about India's real and imagined nuclear capabilities and make belief comparing with small countries like Pakistan so I am posting about India's fissile material capability since these so called Think Tanks use Fissile material as a yard stick for comparing India with Pakistan's military nuclear infrastructure.
India India has the capacity to reprocess at least 350 metric tons of heavy metal per year (MTHM/yr) in four facilities.
The official estimate of India’s natural uranium reserves provided by the Indian Govt stands at 210000 tons of uranium“reasonably assured resources” (RAR) plus an additional 500000 tonnes in AP –Telengana region of discovered conventional resources so that makes it a grand total of
210000 +500000 = 710000 tonnes.
Now where does India produce plutonium
1) CIRUS ( 40Mwt) assuming 1,000 (MWD/MTU) is necessary for producing weapons-grade plutonium it would have generated 9.4 kgs of plutonium ( WG) per annum so total WG Pu generated 413.6 Kgs till 2010 when CIRUS was shut down.
2) DHRUVA ( 100 Mwt) assuming low burnups of 665 MWD/MTU to 1000MWD/MTU with an operating factor of 0.7 woud have generated till now 626 Kg of WG Pu.
Now India has 8 PHWRs outside safeguards assuming .29 conversion factor so total thermal rating == 8233 to 8410 Mwt
that a single 700 MWt PHWR is committed for the production of weapons-grade plutonium rather than the production of electricity at low BURNUPs of 1000 MWD/MTU will generate 180 kgs of WG Pu per year .
If all are used at low burn ups it would yield 1400 Kgs of WG Pu per year which is ggod for 280 nuclear heads a year , but it would require annual fuel loading of 2000 MTU but we only prduce 1200 MTU/yr but we can increase our capacity and fast refuelling capacity which our CANDU derivatives are capable off but it would tax our refuelling machines.
These eight CANDU derivatives would have a requirement for natural uranium would increase to 60000MTU for their complete lifetime , as i have mentioned above we have the Uranium .
Our online reuelling machines will have problems if we fast fuel full core for all the reactors but it is possible.
So if India goes with this maximalist stance of agressive fissile material buildup through its CANDU derivatives at 1000 MWD/MTU and 0.7 loading factor India would be able to produce--------- 1400 Kgs of WG Pu /yr which is good for----------------------280 warheads/yr
Due to the above mentioned problems of 2000 MTU fuel and technical difficulties if only
1/4th or 1/3rd of the core is used for the production of weapons-grade plutonium operated at a 0.7 capacity factor and low discharge burnup of 1,000 MWD/MTU for a single 700 Mwth reactor ----50 Kgs for 1/4th core and 86 kgs 1/3rd core of WG Pu per year.
700 MWth 50Kg(1/4th core) 86 Kgs ( 1/3rd core ) 1000 MWD/MTU at 0.7
If all 8 reactors are used WG Pu generated per year
8200 Mwth 538 Kgs ( 1/4th core ) 995 Kgs ( 1/3rd core ) 1000 MWD/MTU
The fuel requirement for 1/3rd core low burup operation 1100 MTU/yr which is in India’s capacity
So India can operate all PHWR at ¼ th or 1/3rd core and can make
¼ th core---------- 107 warheads /yr
1/3rd core-----------200 warheads/yr
Here I will not include our PFBR which itself can generate 146 Kgs of WG Pu / Yr in its radial and axial blanket.
Again I will not include our ongoing expansion of our cemtrifuge program which is for our SSBN and SSN cores and also for Staged fusion ( Thermonuclear secondary)
Again i am not going into our AVLIS and MVLIS program
Pakistan's Heavy water reactor capacity to produce plutonium == 275 Mwth
India's Heavy water reactor capacity potentially to produce plutonium== 8233 Mwth
Total plutonium India has outside safeguards including fuel grade and weapons grade === 16000 Kgs
Total plutonium Pakistan has outside safeguards in weapons grade form == 125 kg to 150 kgs
Total number of bombs Pakistan can produce per year == 9 nuclear bombs
Total number of bombs India can produce per year ==== 156 bombs
In case anyone is mentally challenged 156 bombs > 9 bombs
In here I am not including India's fast breeder reactor which only one country in Asia operate.
Pakistan's reprocessing capacity is in the gutters and most important you are running out of Uranium ore before long you will be operating on depleted tails while India has enough uranium to last 60 years of weapons program and our Three stage program can last for 500 years .
The game changer on India's part will be the invention FAST BREEDER REACTOR.
Once it is done then according to experts India can produce 700 warheads annually.
India India has the capacity to reprocess at least 350 metric tons of heavy metal per year (MTHM/yr) in four facilities.
The official estimate of India’s natural uranium reserves provided by the Indian Govt stands at 210000 tons of uranium“reasonably assured resources” (RAR) plus an additional 500000 tonnes in AP –Telengana region of discovered conventional resources so that makes it a grand total of
210000 +500000 = 710000 tonnes.
Now where does India produce plutonium
1) CIRUS ( 40Mwt) assuming 1,000 (MWD/MTU) is necessary for producing weapons-grade plutonium it would have generated 9.4 kgs of plutonium ( WG) per annum so total WG Pu generated 413.6 Kgs till 2010 when CIRUS was shut down.
2) DHRUVA ( 100 Mwt) assuming low burnups of 665 MWD/MTU to 1000MWD/MTU with an operating factor of 0.7 woud have generated till now 626 Kg of WG Pu.
Now India has 8 PHWRs outside safeguards assuming .29 conversion factor so total thermal rating == 8233 to 8410 Mwt
that a single 700 MWt PHWR is committed for the production of weapons-grade plutonium rather than the production of electricity at low BURNUPs of 1000 MWD/MTU will generate 180 kgs of WG Pu per year .
If all are used at low burn ups it would yield 1400 Kgs of WG Pu per year which is ggod for 280 nuclear heads a year , but it would require annual fuel loading of 2000 MTU but we only prduce 1200 MTU/yr but we can increase our capacity and fast refuelling capacity which our CANDU derivatives are capable off but it would tax our refuelling machines.
These eight CANDU derivatives would have a requirement for natural uranium would increase to 60000MTU for their complete lifetime , as i have mentioned above we have the Uranium .
Our online reuelling machines will have problems if we fast fuel full core for all the reactors but it is possible.
So if India goes with this maximalist stance of agressive fissile material buildup through its CANDU derivatives at 1000 MWD/MTU and 0.7 loading factor India would be able to produce--------- 1400 Kgs of WG Pu /yr which is good for----------------------280 warheads/yr
Due to the above mentioned problems of 2000 MTU fuel and technical difficulties if only
1/4th or 1/3rd of the core is used for the production of weapons-grade plutonium operated at a 0.7 capacity factor and low discharge burnup of 1,000 MWD/MTU for a single 700 Mwth reactor ----50 Kgs for 1/4th core and 86 kgs 1/3rd core of WG Pu per year.
700 MWth 50Kg(1/4th core) 86 Kgs ( 1/3rd core ) 1000 MWD/MTU at 0.7
If all 8 reactors are used WG Pu generated per year
8200 Mwth 538 Kgs ( 1/4th core ) 995 Kgs ( 1/3rd core ) 1000 MWD/MTU
The fuel requirement for 1/3rd core low burup operation 1100 MTU/yr which is in India’s capacity
So India can operate all PHWR at ¼ th or 1/3rd core and can make
¼ th core---------- 107 warheads /yr
1/3rd core-----------200 warheads/yr
Here I will not include our PFBR which itself can generate 146 Kgs of WG Pu / Yr in its radial and axial blanket.
Again I will not include our ongoing expansion of our cemtrifuge program which is for our SSBN and SSN cores and also for Staged fusion ( Thermonuclear secondary)
Again i am not going into our AVLIS and MVLIS program
Pakistan's Heavy water reactor capacity to produce plutonium == 275 Mwth
India's Heavy water reactor capacity potentially to produce plutonium== 8233 Mwth
Total plutonium India has outside safeguards including fuel grade and weapons grade === 16000 Kgs
Total plutonium Pakistan has outside safeguards in weapons grade form == 125 kg to 150 kgs
Total number of bombs Pakistan can produce per year == 9 nuclear bombs
Total number of bombs India can produce per year ==== 156 bombs
In case anyone is mentally challenged 156 bombs > 9 bombs
In here I am not including India's fast breeder reactor which only one country in Asia operate.
Pakistan's reprocessing capacity is in the gutters and most important you are running out of Uranium ore before long you will be operating on depleted tails while India has enough uranium to last 60 years of weapons program and our Three stage program can last for 500 years .
The game changer on India's part will be the invention FAST BREEDER REACTOR.
Once it is done then according to experts India can produce 700 warheads annually.
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