Well , this is what the reports coming from the US itself are indicating , the author wasn't making things up here ... Check the Afghanistan section for " Obama to mount rapid withdrawal of troops " and the change in the leadership of US command ... Almost a decade of coalition's efforts already paint a very gloomy picture of their progress with neutral sources themselves confirming that the majority of Afghanistan is still being controlled by Taliban and other militias ... Even if they stay , they are most likely to be in the capital , key towns or the bases , this by no means translates into something that can make a difference ... If a million + coalition soldiers couldn't get the control of that country in 10 years , what hope lies there for their " token presence " ?
ANA is a newly recruited army which is today not capable of running the country , on different occasions they have done green-on-blue attacks themselves forcing the US to stop their training and joint operations ... At the moment , they are just another militia given nice uniforms and expensive toys but with zero morality , negligible capability and battered moral not to mention - persistent drug users as well as dealers which sadly half of Karzai's family too is ... So you can just imagine , what happens after the coalition/majority of it abandons the country ...
Yes , US is trying to negotiate with different groups and asking Pakistan to help in the peace efforts , the most important group in their focus are the Taliban themselves who are not ready to accept any deal which allows the presence of even a single NATO soldiers post 2014 so either the US leaves as per the plan and doesn't negotiate with anyone or accepts Taliban proposal of quitting the country and gets something in return ... At the moment , it appears that US is more desperate to talk with Taliban than vice versa ... As far as moderate elements in Taliban are concerned , I do not think anything as such exists ...
The end result will be an instant civil war in the country with different factions backed by different countries ... It still remains to be seen that whom seeks who's help ... Considering the Pakistan's immense influence in that country and India's geographic disadvantage , yes it will a dead end for them if US leaves the country / strikes a peace deal with Taliban or some other faction besides NA comes into government ... This much is certain that Islamabad will not allow any anti Pakistan Govt to sit in Kabul and since majority of their economic goods are imported/exported via Pakistan - we have a massive advantage here not to mention the " ethnic Pashtun " one ...
