Indias Journey in Afghanistan: A Dead End | PKKH.tv
PKKH Exclusive | By Mariam Shah
The post 9/11 scenario was one of the most drastic and full of anticipation episodes. The most significant aspects of it were the invasions, the emerging power-play and the role of regional players. Pakistans position in that scenario was troubled because the US/NATO presence in Afghanistan boosted Indias hopes in the region and Pakistan had to face security dilemmas on both sides of the border. Immediately after 9/11, India felt her possibility as a major regional power and was hell-bent to figure out her role in Afghanistan in the post-occupation scenario. US presence in Afghanistan directly favored India as it created instability and security concerns for Pakistan; while India, stretching her muscles, saw this as a lifetime opportunity to sandwich Pakistan from both east and west.
India blamed Pakistani intelligence agency for backing the banned militant organizations for the attack on its parliament on December 13, 2001. This whole episode led to a standoff between India and Pakistan and the possibility of a nuclear conflict in the region. In 2001-2002 India started mobilizing her troops at the border and also prepared for incursion on the western border of Pakistan; just to show her might and power and to intimidate Pakistan. The West was much concerned about any nuclear armed conflict between India and Pakistan as any conflict in the region would have an impact on the US war on terror.
India saw the post 9/11 scenario as a blessing in disguise for herself, and being a major player in the region, she was looking for her role in the emerging situation, more appropriately in Afghanistan. The strong friendly ties between the Northern Allies and India were not new, as India had supported the Northern Allies during the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan too. It is important to note that stability in Afghanistan is a prerequisite to the stability and security in Pakistan; so India, by supporting the Alliance would be, indirectly, creating security concerns for Pakistan. Perhaps having gained grounds in Afghanistan would mean an opportunity to get an access to the EU and other countries via Afghanistan, and India could again wishfully dream of being an Extra-Regional Power-Player and then this would be the start of an era of another Super Power.
Dreams have no limits and boundaries, so India started thinking that her strategic environment stretches from the north to the south and from the east to the west. According to Christine Fair, the Indian policy analysts claim that their strategic environment is extended to the Strait of Hormuz and the Persian Gulf in the west, and in the east it includes the Strait of Malacca and extends up to the South China Sea; in the north it is comprised of Central Asia, and in the south it reaches out to Antarctica. Indian dreams were so high, that she wanted to throw off any comparison with Pakistan; and with the help of the US, she was all set to throw China off the scene and these plans were very much on the table.
To gain an influential role in the country, India vows to spend billions in Afghanistan on the construction of roads, infrastructure and dams. India is trying to win the public of Afghanistan by pledging to invest in its education, health, development, construction and other basic infrastructure. Through all these promises India has tried to give an impression of being a strong soft-power; a Booming India or a Shining India. In November this year, India and Afghanistan signed 4 MoUs in diverse areas including mines and fertilizers, youth affairs and small development projects. India has committed $2 billion in development and infrastructure assistance to Afghanistan as the two countries decided to work on an economic partnership agreement. India also agreed to help Afghanistan with research, scientific assistance and troops training. All these tactics were meant to make ties strong with the present ruling government in Afghanistan, to gain public support of the Afghanis and to achieve a global vote as a strong soft power.
Now, as the withdrawal time announced by US is approaching, the emerging situation is not favoring India anymore as every player in the region is planning and getting prepared for the world after the 2014 withdrawal. The presence of the US in the region gave confidence to India to push Pakistan more in the circumstances; but as the withdrawal is approaching, things will not be the same as they were or as they are now. The pullout plan of 2014 is surely a nightmare for India, as Pakistan will support their ultimate friends the Afghan Taliban; and India is trying hard to outclass this through a bonding with the Northern Alliance and by spending on the infrastructure of the country. Despite posing as a soft power in Afghanistan, India is unable to achieve any strategic gains in this whole scenario.
The US wants India to play a greater role after the withdrawal; thats why the US Secretary of Defense Leon Panetta, on a visit to India this June, declared India as a lynchpin in the Asian strategy. The US also tried empowering India so as to encircle and contain Chinas influence in the region. To show unfailing support, as on one occasion, Hillary Clinton demanded the capture of Hafiz Saeed while standing on Indian soil and declared a heavy bounty on him.
Despite US backing and support for Indias role in Afghanistan, India cannot do a lot in Afghanistan alone due to its geopolitical scenarios. Whether the US recognizes Pakistans role in Afghanistan or not, India now knows that in Afghanistan she is not the prime player like Pakistan. The geographical boundaries are the main hurdles, as India and Afghanistan dont share any physical link. So India is trying hard to carve its place and to influence the situation with the help of key players like the US (Lynch Pin scenario) and through another regional player that is Iran. Now its not that easy, as getting close to Iran is against US apparent Middle East policy and India, being a new bridegroom of the US, cannot afford its anger at all. This is very much visible as Indian refineries have drastically cut imports of Iranian crude oil and there is a decline in oil business between India and Iran. This is also because of the US and EU sanctions against the Gulf Nation.
Now Delhi is in a fix, standing puzzled on a cross-road. Despite signing MOUs with Afghanistan and despite Karzais repeated visits to India, India knows that all the castles that she built in Afghanistan are going to be destroyed like a sand-house as soon as the US will leave Afghanistan. All agreements of strategic partnership with Afghanistan will be considered as mere pieces of paper. As Pakistans natural allies are not the Northern Alliance but the Afghan Taliban, the emergence of Taliban after the US withdrawal poses a serious security threat to India. US statesman Henry Kissinger said In many respects, India will be the most affected country if jihadist Islamism gains impetus in Afghanistan; this clearly reflects that if Taliban gain power in Afghanistan after the US withdrawal, things will not be easy for India. Najib Mamalai, an independent analyst in Kabul, says, all foreign countries who want to be involved in Afghanistan, they put their own interests first, not Afghanistans. India is no exception in this regard. India is looking for its own interest in Afghanistan. Although the Indian government maintained good ties with the post-Taliban government in Afghanistan, the Indian approach is largely to prevent Pakistan from dominating after the 2014 withdrawal; but the billions spent have not given any strategic gain to India so far.
To keep that away, India is now hell-bent to bring the situation back to the pre-9/11 position when Taliban were fighting with the Northern Alliance and Indian Brigade in Tajikistan were assisting the Northern alliance. Its on the record that through Tajikistan, India supplied the Northern Alliance with high altitude warfare equipment worth around $8 million. According to Rahul Bedi, India also appointed many defense advisers, including an officer of a brigadier rank in Tajikistan, to advise the Northern Alliance in their operations against the Taliban. India also dispatched helicopter technicians from the clandestine Aviation Research Center (ARC), which is backed by Indias external intelligence agency, RAW. These technicians helped maintain the Soviet-made Mi-17 and Mi-35 attack helicopters in the Northern Alliance Fleet. It is imperative to understand that it is the same Northern Alliance which is in power right now and with which India is making all the partnerships, just to assure them her support.
Now the story is reversed and getting to a new end. From day dreaming of sandwiching Pakistan, India is now facing a future threat of being a sandwich between Pakistan and China. With a potential threat in Afghanistan, in the form of a Pro-Pakistani Government, India is now feeling and fearing a surge and rise in terrorist activities in the Valley of Kashmir. The theater of Kashmir already saw a boom in Post USSR era, and India is now fearing the same in Post US era of Afghanistan. Now standing puzzled on the cross-road, knowing that none of the roads is going to any better place, with shattered dreams; Indias story of Afghanistan is an awkward mixture of hope, fantasy and failure.
Mariam Shah is a regular contributor at PKKH and a ( Columnist @ The Fortress Magazine), She is a Human Rights, Youth and Peace Activist and doing MPhil in Peace and Conflict Studies From NDU. She Can be reached at ms.fortress@gmail.com and she tweets at @mareium
Source
PKKH Exclusive | By Mariam Shah
The post 9/11 scenario was one of the most drastic and full of anticipation episodes. The most significant aspects of it were the invasions, the emerging power-play and the role of regional players. Pakistans position in that scenario was troubled because the US/NATO presence in Afghanistan boosted Indias hopes in the region and Pakistan had to face security dilemmas on both sides of the border. Immediately after 9/11, India felt her possibility as a major regional power and was hell-bent to figure out her role in Afghanistan in the post-occupation scenario. US presence in Afghanistan directly favored India as it created instability and security concerns for Pakistan; while India, stretching her muscles, saw this as a lifetime opportunity to sandwich Pakistan from both east and west.
India blamed Pakistani intelligence agency for backing the banned militant organizations for the attack on its parliament on December 13, 2001. This whole episode led to a standoff between India and Pakistan and the possibility of a nuclear conflict in the region. In 2001-2002 India started mobilizing her troops at the border and also prepared for incursion on the western border of Pakistan; just to show her might and power and to intimidate Pakistan. The West was much concerned about any nuclear armed conflict between India and Pakistan as any conflict in the region would have an impact on the US war on terror.
India saw the post 9/11 scenario as a blessing in disguise for herself, and being a major player in the region, she was looking for her role in the emerging situation, more appropriately in Afghanistan. The strong friendly ties between the Northern Allies and India were not new, as India had supported the Northern Allies during the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan too. It is important to note that stability in Afghanistan is a prerequisite to the stability and security in Pakistan; so India, by supporting the Alliance would be, indirectly, creating security concerns for Pakistan. Perhaps having gained grounds in Afghanistan would mean an opportunity to get an access to the EU and other countries via Afghanistan, and India could again wishfully dream of being an Extra-Regional Power-Player and then this would be the start of an era of another Super Power.
Dreams have no limits and boundaries, so India started thinking that her strategic environment stretches from the north to the south and from the east to the west. According to Christine Fair, the Indian policy analysts claim that their strategic environment is extended to the Strait of Hormuz and the Persian Gulf in the west, and in the east it includes the Strait of Malacca and extends up to the South China Sea; in the north it is comprised of Central Asia, and in the south it reaches out to Antarctica. Indian dreams were so high, that she wanted to throw off any comparison with Pakistan; and with the help of the US, she was all set to throw China off the scene and these plans were very much on the table.
To gain an influential role in the country, India vows to spend billions in Afghanistan on the construction of roads, infrastructure and dams. India is trying to win the public of Afghanistan by pledging to invest in its education, health, development, construction and other basic infrastructure. Through all these promises India has tried to give an impression of being a strong soft-power; a Booming India or a Shining India. In November this year, India and Afghanistan signed 4 MoUs in diverse areas including mines and fertilizers, youth affairs and small development projects. India has committed $2 billion in development and infrastructure assistance to Afghanistan as the two countries decided to work on an economic partnership agreement. India also agreed to help Afghanistan with research, scientific assistance and troops training. All these tactics were meant to make ties strong with the present ruling government in Afghanistan, to gain public support of the Afghanis and to achieve a global vote as a strong soft power.
Now, as the withdrawal time announced by US is approaching, the emerging situation is not favoring India anymore as every player in the region is planning and getting prepared for the world after the 2014 withdrawal. The presence of the US in the region gave confidence to India to push Pakistan more in the circumstances; but as the withdrawal is approaching, things will not be the same as they were or as they are now. The pullout plan of 2014 is surely a nightmare for India, as Pakistan will support their ultimate friends the Afghan Taliban; and India is trying hard to outclass this through a bonding with the Northern Alliance and by spending on the infrastructure of the country. Despite posing as a soft power in Afghanistan, India is unable to achieve any strategic gains in this whole scenario.
The US wants India to play a greater role after the withdrawal; thats why the US Secretary of Defense Leon Panetta, on a visit to India this June, declared India as a lynchpin in the Asian strategy. The US also tried empowering India so as to encircle and contain Chinas influence in the region. To show unfailing support, as on one occasion, Hillary Clinton demanded the capture of Hafiz Saeed while standing on Indian soil and declared a heavy bounty on him.
Despite US backing and support for Indias role in Afghanistan, India cannot do a lot in Afghanistan alone due to its geopolitical scenarios. Whether the US recognizes Pakistans role in Afghanistan or not, India now knows that in Afghanistan she is not the prime player like Pakistan. The geographical boundaries are the main hurdles, as India and Afghanistan dont share any physical link. So India is trying hard to carve its place and to influence the situation with the help of key players like the US (Lynch Pin scenario) and through another regional player that is Iran. Now its not that easy, as getting close to Iran is against US apparent Middle East policy and India, being a new bridegroom of the US, cannot afford its anger at all. This is very much visible as Indian refineries have drastically cut imports of Iranian crude oil and there is a decline in oil business between India and Iran. This is also because of the US and EU sanctions against the Gulf Nation.
Now Delhi is in a fix, standing puzzled on a cross-road. Despite signing MOUs with Afghanistan and despite Karzais repeated visits to India, India knows that all the castles that she built in Afghanistan are going to be destroyed like a sand-house as soon as the US will leave Afghanistan. All agreements of strategic partnership with Afghanistan will be considered as mere pieces of paper. As Pakistans natural allies are not the Northern Alliance but the Afghan Taliban, the emergence of Taliban after the US withdrawal poses a serious security threat to India. US statesman Henry Kissinger said In many respects, India will be the most affected country if jihadist Islamism gains impetus in Afghanistan; this clearly reflects that if Taliban gain power in Afghanistan after the US withdrawal, things will not be easy for India. Najib Mamalai, an independent analyst in Kabul, says, all foreign countries who want to be involved in Afghanistan, they put their own interests first, not Afghanistans. India is no exception in this regard. India is looking for its own interest in Afghanistan. Although the Indian government maintained good ties with the post-Taliban government in Afghanistan, the Indian approach is largely to prevent Pakistan from dominating after the 2014 withdrawal; but the billions spent have not given any strategic gain to India so far.
To keep that away, India is now hell-bent to bring the situation back to the pre-9/11 position when Taliban were fighting with the Northern Alliance and Indian Brigade in Tajikistan were assisting the Northern alliance. Its on the record that through Tajikistan, India supplied the Northern Alliance with high altitude warfare equipment worth around $8 million. According to Rahul Bedi, India also appointed many defense advisers, including an officer of a brigadier rank in Tajikistan, to advise the Northern Alliance in their operations against the Taliban. India also dispatched helicopter technicians from the clandestine Aviation Research Center (ARC), which is backed by Indias external intelligence agency, RAW. These technicians helped maintain the Soviet-made Mi-17 and Mi-35 attack helicopters in the Northern Alliance Fleet. It is imperative to understand that it is the same Northern Alliance which is in power right now and with which India is making all the partnerships, just to assure them her support.
Now the story is reversed and getting to a new end. From day dreaming of sandwiching Pakistan, India is now facing a future threat of being a sandwich between Pakistan and China. With a potential threat in Afghanistan, in the form of a Pro-Pakistani Government, India is now feeling and fearing a surge and rise in terrorist activities in the Valley of Kashmir. The theater of Kashmir already saw a boom in Post USSR era, and India is now fearing the same in Post US era of Afghanistan. Now standing puzzled on the cross-road, knowing that none of the roads is going to any better place, with shattered dreams; Indias story of Afghanistan is an awkward mixture of hope, fantasy and failure.
Mariam Shah is a regular contributor at PKKH and a ( Columnist @ The Fortress Magazine), She is a Human Rights, Youth and Peace Activist and doing MPhil in Peace and Conflict Studies From NDU. She Can be reached at ms.fortress@gmail.com and she tweets at @mareium
Source
..
