India-Russia aircraft carrier deal on the rocks

[ejaz007]

This is what is reported on defenseindustrydaily.com

INS Vikramaditya Hits Delay, Cost Increases - and a Switch?

It seems India and Russia are sailing in the different directions. Regardless of what happens one thing is for sure this deal was negotiated poorly.

 

[Energon]

Feb 19-23/08: Crazy Sam’s Carrier Clearance? As reports begin to suggest that Russia and India are too far apart to agree on the Gorshkov refit, speculation grows that the USA intends to solve India’s problem with a stunning offer during Defense Secretary Gates’ imminent visit to india. instead of retiring and decommissioning its last conventionally-powered carrier, the 81,800 ton/ 74,200t USS Kitty Hawk [CV-63, commissioned 1961], would be handed over to India when its current tour in Japan ends in 2008. The procedure would resemble the January 2007 “hot transfer” of the amphibious landing ship USS Trenton [LPD-14], which become INS Jalashva. The cost? This time, it would be free. As in, $0.

Naturally, there is a quid pro quo that accompanies these rumors. In return for an aircraft carrier that would be larger than its counterparts in every navy other than the US Navy, India would select at least 60 F/A-18 E/F Super Hornets in its MMRCA fighter competition, to serve as the carrier’s air wing. Unlike the Gorshkov, the Kitty Hawk is a purpose-built carrier whose full air complement is a whopping “75+” aircraft and helicopters. India has also expressed interest in the USA’s E-2 Hawkeye carrier AWACS aircraft, which would be a natural fit for its new ship.

As a number of sources point out, this is a multi-pronged move that would achieve a number of objectives all at once. First, the offer removes all Russian negotiating leverage over India by removing the issues of sunk costs, foreign possession of the Vikramaditya, and any danger of being left without a carrier. The Indian Navy would be greatly strengthened, and its ability to police the Indian Ocean from the Straits of Malacca to South Africa would take a huge leap forward. Any additional work to upgrade or refurbish the carrier could be undertaken in India, providing jobs and expertise while maintaining full national control over the refit. The USA gains financial benefits of its own, as the Navy avoids the expensive task of steaming the Kitty Hawk home and decommissioning it. Americans would almost certainly receive maintenance contracts for the steam catapults, and possibly for some new electronics, but those economic benefits pale in comparison to the multi-billion dollar follow-on wins for Boeing (Super Hornet), Northrop Grumman (E-2 Hawkeye), and possibly even Lockheed Martin (F-16 E/F, F-35B). All of which works to cement a growing strategic alliance between the two countries, and creates deep defense industrial ties as well.

Actually I don't see why it would be so unlikely for the US to offer the Kitty Hawk when other far more sensitive technology has been put up for sale. This carrier is nothing more than a platform (an outdated one nonetheless). The "real meat" so to speak will be in the F-18s, EA-18s and the AWACS. The only novelty about this carrier is the catapult which so far has only been availed to France.

I could see the improbability of this offer if the Kitty Hawk were a nuclear powered vessel, but this is not the case. As I said before, there is virtually nothing on this ship that can be considered more sensitive than what has already been offered.

The reason I found the Goshwak thing odd is because this aircraft is used to train pilots for CATOBAR operations. The IN as far as I know will only have STOBAR capabilities.

The most important point here is the cost associated with keeping a ship of this size operational. This is most likely to be the biggest impediment. However, if the Americans are willing to sell ships, then perhaps a retired Tarawa Class LHA with a modified ski deck would be a better option.

 

[blain2]

I do not think this is an unlikely offer. It may be a possibility. What remains to be seen is how it would unfold. 60 or so F/A-18s for the Navy means that the IAF would need to increase its own numbers beyond the 120 or so being discussed currently for the MMRCA.

 

[Energon]

I do not think this is an unlikely offer. It may be a possibility. What remains to be seen is how it would unfold. 60 or so F/A-18s for the Navy means that the IAF would need to increase its own numbers beyond the 120 or so being discussed currently for the MMRCA.

The IAF is going to have to share air defense with the IN and split the difference as much as possible. It will also require a large number of pilot exchange from one service to another.

Also, it could mean that instead of a 3 carrier fleet, the IN would have to be content with two. The cost of operating a 80,000t super carrier is bound to be massive, granted the strategic depth gained by having a carrier of this sort is much higher than what the IN has now.

 

[blain2]

Here is a damper on the Kitty Hawk rumor:

"SQUASH IT"

U.S. defense officials, however, denied a report that India wanted the United States to give it the USS Kitty Hawk aircraft carrier in exchange for New Delhi's agreement to purchase American F-18 fighters.

"Squash it," one senior official, speaking en route to New Delhi, said of the report.

"I will fall on my sword, I will hurl myself out of this airplane if there is any truth to this stupid story."

The focus on arms sales comes despite an impasse over a controversial civil nuclear deal seen by many as the centerpiece of India's strategic relationship with Washington.

The agreement, opposed by the Indian government's communist allies, would allow New Delhi to access U.S. nuclear fuel and reactors by overturning a three-decade ban imposed after India conducted a nuclear test while staying out of the Non-Proliferation Treaty.

"I'm here independent of that to see how we can expand the military-to-military relationship, independent of the civil-nuclear agreement," Gates said.

(Additional reporting by Bappa Majumdar; Editing by Alex Richardson)

 

[Energon]

blain beat me to it.

 

[blain2]

No worries...there still could be some truth to this story...who knows?

 

[Keysersoze]

Actually I don't see why it would be so unlikely for the US to offer the Kitty Hawk when other far more sensitive technology has been put up for sale. This carrier is nothing more than a platform (an outdated one nonetheless). The "real meat" so to speak will be in the F-18s, EA-18s and the AWACS. The only novelty about this carrier is the catapult which so far has only been availed to France.

I could see the improbability of this offer if the Kitty Hawk were a nuclear powered vessel, but this is not the case. As I said before, there is virtually nothing on this ship that can be considered more sensitive than what has already been offered.

The reason I found the Goshwak thing odd is because this aircraft is used to train pilots for CATOBAR operations. The IN as far as I know will only have STOBAR capabilities.

The most important point here is the cost associated with keeping a ship of this size operational. This is most likely to be the biggest impediment. However, if the Americans are willing to sell ships, then perhaps a retired Tarawa Class LHA with a modified ski deck would be a better option.

Energon the point regards the Goshawk training is simple.... they were practicing arrested landings. there has been no indication other than the commander of the kitty hawk making a off the cuff remark to a Indian reporter which has been blown out of proportion.

Think about it...how much would the airwing cost alone? Refurbishment of electronics and other shipboard systems (I doubt the current onboard systems would be given)

Its not gonna happen......

 

[Energon]

No worries...there still could be some truth to this story...who knows?

I just realized, the ship could be up for sale; but there is no way in hell it could be coupled with a condition to buy a certain aircraft manufactured by one company. That would essentially be a state sponsored kickback on the behalf of Boeing; something Lockheed would never allow. Russia could do this because their entire defense industry is state owned.

 

[Energon]

Think about it...how much would the airwing cost alone? Refurbishment of electronics and other shipboard systems (I doubt the current onboard systems would be given)

Its not gonna happen......

If they were to opt for this ship, no refurbishments could be done for quite some time. They would have to take it as is, and in the bargain scrap the idea for the third carrier simply on account of the high operational costs.

A 45k tn carrier with a complement of 18 jets would certainly be the best case scenario... but at this point it's more of a necessity than a choice. There aren't too many second hand carrier dealers in the world anymore. If the IN was going to stick with the Harriers, they could have possibly looked into purchasing one of the British light carriers; but this isn't possible either.

 

[Keysersoze]

If they were to opt for this ship, no refurbishments could be done for quite some time. They would have to take it as is, and in the bargain scrap the idea for the third carrier simply on account of the high operational costs.

A 45k tn carrier with a complement of 18 jets would certainly be the best case scenario... but at this point it's more of a necessity than a choice. There aren't too many second hand carrier dealers in the world anymore. If the IN was going to stick with the Harriers, they could have possibly looked into purchasing one of the British light carriers; but this isn't possible either.

The refurbishments would have to be along the line of radars /defence systems such as missiles and phalanx systems which would undoubtedly be removed.

 

[Energon]

The refurbishments would have to be along the line of radars /defence systems such as missiles and phalanx systems which would undoubtedly be removed.

Those would have to be replaced with Israeli systems that are currently in use by the IN or a formal request could be made for the Aegis, which apparently wouldn't be denied. But that wouldn't really be an upgrade by any means.

 

[Keysersoze]

Those would have to be replaced with Israeli systems that are currently in use by the IN or a formal request could be made for the Aegis, which apparently wouldn't be denied. But that wouldn't really be an upgrade by any means.

Yes but the cost in addition to the airwing would add a few hundred million more to the deal. So it would be free except for the 5-8 billion dollar cost (guestimate its probably higher)

As the saying goes.....no such thing as a free lunch

 

[ejaz007]

Aircraft Carrier May Go to Russian Navy​

The aircraft carrier Admiral Gorshkov will be delivered to the Russian Navy instead of going to India after modernization. A source within the Russian military-industrial complex told RBK that Russia and India are now reaching an agreement on changing the conditions of the 2004 contract for the ship's overhaul. Under that contract, India received the hull without charge on condition that it be modernized at Sevmashpredpriyatie. The value of that contract was $1.5 billion.
According to unofficial information, negotiations are currently underway to expand the value of the contract by about $1 billion. “That question is being worked out. If a compromise is not found with India, the aircraft carrier will probably be purchased by the Russian Navy,” the source said.

The Admiral Gorshkov was built in 1978 as the Baku. Its name was changed in 1991. It will be equipped with Russian-Indian Bramos missiles and Russian or Israeli air defense systems after modernization.

Aircraft Carrier May Go to Russian Navy - Kommersant Moscow

 

[Malang]

Aircraft Carrier May Go to Russian Navy​

The aircraft carrier Admiral Gorshkov will be delivered to the Russian Navy instead of going to India after modernization. A source within the Russian military-industrial complex told RBK that Russia and India are now reaching an agreement on changing the conditions of the 2004 contract for the ship's overhaul. Under that contract, India received the hull without charge on condition that it be modernized at Sevmashpredpriyatie. The value of that contract was $1.5 billion.
According to unofficial information, negotiations are currently underway to expand the value of the contract by about $1 billion. “That question is being worked out. If a compromise is not found with India, the aircraft carrier will probably be purchased by the Russian Navy,” the source said.

The Admiral Gorshkov was built in 1978 as the Baku. Its name was changed in 1991. It will be equipped with Russian-Indian Bramos missiles and Russian or Israeli air defense systems after modernization.

Aircraft Carrier May Go to Russian Navy - Kommersant Moscow

ejay this is dated 19th feb.. just a few days back Russians had an about turn on their stance..

Khaleej Times Online - Carrier deal with India still on, claims Russia