It really surprises me a great deal when the Indians think of themselves as a powerful nation in the region and that all the countries surrounding India are somehow subservient to Indian desires. It should be clear to the Indians that the current Republic of India is not what British India or Muslim India or even Mauryan rule once were.
I posted this earlier as well – let me post it again.
Lets see what can India do at geopolitical and geostrategic level:
· India can act as a countervailing force against China.
· As a milkman to sustain US economy.
· Compete with Chinese economic progress.
· Stabilize regional disputes with limited force projection capability.
Lets see what are India’s geopolitical and geostrategic strengths and weaknesses:
India cannot laterally expand its influence beyond its western borders due the existence of geo-political impediments in addition to the geographical restrictions placed by the presence of Pakistan, unless Pakistan allows it to do so.
Expansion of its influence towards the east is impeded due to the large geographical lay of China.
Myanmar can provide India with limited ability to expand towards South East Asia. Chinese influence in Myanmar has increased manifold and may limit future Indian endeavours.
Therefore the only direction it may be able to expand its influence is towards the vast expanse of sea in the south. The US also supports India’s increasing influence in IOR, but only as a second fiddle.
However even in the seas surrounding India, she is losing its influence amongst the island nations that surround India. Sri Lanka is a very important geostrategic and geopolitical player in this region and because of India’s Big Power syndrome along with unacceptable interference in Sri Lanka’s Tamil affairs, it has completely lost its support. So has been the case with Maldives.
India may be able to enhance her economic prowess and may be able to generate a bit of economic influence in all those countries which are its trading partners and may also be able to exercise a bit of negativity against Pakistan, China and Sri Lanka in this domain. However, India’s over 600 million poor and its poor infrastructure including the absence of industrial capacity and sustenance on services would be a big drain on India becoming an economic power house.
And it’s overall power projection and generation of influence in the key regions would still remain limited unless it drastically improves relations with both Sri Lanka, Pakistan and China.
Therefore, India’s concerns may not find due importance in places of import. This is so because India’s importance has diminished considerably due to her weakness at geopolitical and geostrategic levels. Very few listen to India in the region. I wonder who listens to India at international level and that is why Indians run to the Americans and seek their help to exert pressure on Pakistan and some others so that India’s concerns may find a listener.